Partiendo del análisis de más de 500 elecciones alrededor del mundo Alfred Cuzán explora cinco pautas regulares y recurrentes, que se convierten en pautas de funcionamiento del poder político.
This document summarizes a research project on the effects of gerrymandering on political representation in the United States. It defines gerrymandering as manipulating legislative districts for political gain and briefly outlines its history. The author then reviews criteria for redistricting districts, including equal population requirements and adherence to the Voting Rights Act. Some scholars argue that frequent redistricting weakens the connection between elected officials and constituents by causing uncertainty and instability. The author aims to demonstrate how gerrymandering dilutes votes and limits election competitiveness, resulting in unfair representation.
Supplementary data slides american governmentcompiled bcherry686017
This document provides summaries for multiple slides related to American Government. Each slide summarizes a source document on a different topic, such as the founding and constitution, federalism, civil rights, congress, and public opinion. The summaries are brief, between 1-3 sentences each, and highlight the key information or findings from the source document on that topic.
This document summarizes a paper analyzing racial gerrymandering and electoral districting. It discusses Supreme Court cases like Shaw v. Reno that found racial gerrymandering unconstitutional but provided no clear legal standard. It also analyzes Illinois' 1st Congressional District, finding it was drawn to include a slim African American majority that typically votes Democrat along with suburban and rural whites that often vote Republican, maximizing the partisan benefit to Democrats. While this helps minority representation, it may increase political polarization and discourage community-building and participation. The document explores potential solutions like emphasizing local communities over partisan goals in redistricting or basing districts on contiguous geographic communities to increase voter engagement, but acknowledges this does not fully solve gerry
This paper is the first in a series of publications aimed at provoking thought and discourse on issues relating to “Winner-Takes-All” politics in Ghana. It discusses winner-takes-all as an electoral formula and situates it within the context of winner-takes-all politics in Ghana. It highlights the dangers of Ghana’s winner-takes-all politics such as the marginalization of perceived political opponents and the feeling of exclusion from the governance process by those who do not belong to the government/ruling party. The paper argues further that winner-takes-all politics undermines the quest for national development, cohesion and the drive towards democratic maturity. In proffering policy recommendation, the paper critically examines Proportional Representation as one possible mechanism for ensuring inclusive governance and dealing with some of the challenges associated with winner-takes-all politics.
Winner-Take-All? The Troubled History Of The Electoral college And The Popula...Sean Moore
November 8th, 2016 the United States for the fifth time in 192 years was confronted with a candidate winning the presidency without winning the popular vote. The Electoral College designed by the founding fathers is once again confounding and angering voters, much like it first did in the 1824 presidential election. Why do we have an electoral system? Why don't we have a more democratic method of electing presidents?
Day 5 - Cracking and Packing: Districting in the HouseLee Hannah
The document discusses various topics related to redistricting and apportionment in the US House of Representatives, including:
- The Voting Rights Act ruling that eliminated preclearance requirements for some states.
- Constitutional qualifications to hold office and debates over residency requirements.
- Malapportionment of representation in the Senate and trends in population shifts favoring the West and Sun Belt.
- The method used for apportioning House seats and debates over sizes and districting, including the rise of majority-minority districts.
- Types of gerrymandering like partisan and pro-incumbent gerrymandering.
The crisis of democracy in the western balkans, authoritarianism and eu stabi...gordana comic
This document summarizes the decline of democracy in the Western Balkans over the past decade according to various indices. It finds that countries in the region have become hybrid regimes or flawed democracies, with weak, compromised democratic institutions that autocratic leaders have exploited to consolidate power. While the EU integration process was meant to foster democracy in the region, the EU has tolerated this dynamic by prioritizing stability and viewing regional leaders as partners. However, the status quo poses risks such as further democratic backsliding, more geopolitical tensions, and declining EU support among citizens. A more decisive engagement from the EU is needed to address the democratic crisis.
This document summarizes a research project on the effects of gerrymandering on political representation in the United States. It defines gerrymandering as manipulating legislative districts for political gain and briefly outlines its history. The author then reviews criteria for redistricting districts, including equal population requirements and adherence to the Voting Rights Act. Some scholars argue that frequent redistricting weakens the connection between elected officials and constituents by causing uncertainty and instability. The author aims to demonstrate how gerrymandering dilutes votes and limits election competitiveness, resulting in unfair representation.
Supplementary data slides american governmentcompiled bcherry686017
This document provides summaries for multiple slides related to American Government. Each slide summarizes a source document on a different topic, such as the founding and constitution, federalism, civil rights, congress, and public opinion. The summaries are brief, between 1-3 sentences each, and highlight the key information or findings from the source document on that topic.
This document summarizes a paper analyzing racial gerrymandering and electoral districting. It discusses Supreme Court cases like Shaw v. Reno that found racial gerrymandering unconstitutional but provided no clear legal standard. It also analyzes Illinois' 1st Congressional District, finding it was drawn to include a slim African American majority that typically votes Democrat along with suburban and rural whites that often vote Republican, maximizing the partisan benefit to Democrats. While this helps minority representation, it may increase political polarization and discourage community-building and participation. The document explores potential solutions like emphasizing local communities over partisan goals in redistricting or basing districts on contiguous geographic communities to increase voter engagement, but acknowledges this does not fully solve gerry
This paper is the first in a series of publications aimed at provoking thought and discourse on issues relating to “Winner-Takes-All” politics in Ghana. It discusses winner-takes-all as an electoral formula and situates it within the context of winner-takes-all politics in Ghana. It highlights the dangers of Ghana’s winner-takes-all politics such as the marginalization of perceived political opponents and the feeling of exclusion from the governance process by those who do not belong to the government/ruling party. The paper argues further that winner-takes-all politics undermines the quest for national development, cohesion and the drive towards democratic maturity. In proffering policy recommendation, the paper critically examines Proportional Representation as one possible mechanism for ensuring inclusive governance and dealing with some of the challenges associated with winner-takes-all politics.
Winner-Take-All? The Troubled History Of The Electoral college And The Popula...Sean Moore
November 8th, 2016 the United States for the fifth time in 192 years was confronted with a candidate winning the presidency without winning the popular vote. The Electoral College designed by the founding fathers is once again confounding and angering voters, much like it first did in the 1824 presidential election. Why do we have an electoral system? Why don't we have a more democratic method of electing presidents?
Day 5 - Cracking and Packing: Districting in the HouseLee Hannah
The document discusses various topics related to redistricting and apportionment in the US House of Representatives, including:
- The Voting Rights Act ruling that eliminated preclearance requirements for some states.
- Constitutional qualifications to hold office and debates over residency requirements.
- Malapportionment of representation in the Senate and trends in population shifts favoring the West and Sun Belt.
- The method used for apportioning House seats and debates over sizes and districting, including the rise of majority-minority districts.
- Types of gerrymandering like partisan and pro-incumbent gerrymandering.
The crisis of democracy in the western balkans, authoritarianism and eu stabi...gordana comic
This document summarizes the decline of democracy in the Western Balkans over the past decade according to various indices. It finds that countries in the region have become hybrid regimes or flawed democracies, with weak, compromised democratic institutions that autocratic leaders have exploited to consolidate power. While the EU integration process was meant to foster democracy in the region, the EU has tolerated this dynamic by prioritizing stability and viewing regional leaders as partners. However, the status quo poses risks such as further democratic backsliding, more geopolitical tensions, and declining EU support among citizens. A more decisive engagement from the EU is needed to address the democratic crisis.
- About three-quarters of Kenyans know the date of the next election in August 2017, but nearly two-thirds support pushing it back to December 2017. Support for changing the date does not differ between supporters of the ruling Jubilee coalition and the opposition CORD coalition.
- Only one-fifth of Kenyans are aware of any voter registration conducted in their locality since the last election. Fewer than half believe the election commission has sufficient public confidence to manage the next election without reforms, though Jubilee supporters are three times as likely as CORD supporters to express confidence.
- Kenyans are divided on whether the ICC case against Deputy President William Ruto should continue or be terminated, and
This summary is based on results from Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC survey of 2015 that was conducted between March 28 and April 7. It is the 9th such release. Given that the tragic attack on Garissa University College occurred on April 2, about 25% of the interviews took place after that date. However, in comparing the results obtained before and after April 2, their distribution was clearly affected more on some issues than others, or not at all. For example, the proportion of those perceiving al-Shabaab as “very much a threat” after April 2 was 14% higher than before that date. By contrast the results presented here (on issues unrelated to security, presidential approval, etc.) were not affected by that tragic attack.
The document analyzes the relationship between political polarization, wealth inequality, voter turnout laws, and voter turnout. Regression models found that political polarization and voter ID laws did not significantly impact turnout, but wealth inequality did have a significant negative effect on turnout. While the study has limitations, it provides initial evidence that increasing wealth inequality, rather than polarization alone, may contribute to decreasing voter participation. Further research is needed to more fully understand the impacts of polarization and inequality on political engagement.
The document discusses the need for electoral reforms in India. It notes that the current electoral process alienates decent citizens from politics due to the need to resort to dishonest methods to get elected and survive in office. While electoral verdicts broadly reflect shifts in public opinion, the use of money, muscle power, and criminal activity gives certain candidates an unfair advantage. This has resulted in most major parties nominating "winnable" candidates lacking in ability and integrity. Competent people are discouraged from entering politics, weakening governance and harming democracy. Reforms are needed to encourage honest citizens to participate and ensure elections are fair.
Does Islamic political control affect women's empowerment? Several countries have recently experienced Islamic parties coming to power through democratic elections. Due to strong support among religious conservatives, constituencies with Islamic rule often tend to exhibit poor women's rights. Whether this relationship reflects a causal or a spurious one has so far gone unexplored. I provide the first piece of evidence using a new and unique dataset of Turkish municipalities. In 1994, an Islamic party won multiple municipal mayor seats across the country. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, I compare municipalities where this Islamic party barely won or lost elections. Despite negative raw correlations, the RD results reveal that over a period of six years, Islamic rule increased female secular high school education. Corresponding effects for men are systematically smaller and less precise. In the longer run, the effect on female education remained persistent up to 17 years after and also reduced adolescent marriages. An analysis of long-run political effects of Islamic rule shows increased female political participation and an overall decrease in Islamic political preferences. The results are consistent with an explanation that emphasizes the Islamic party's effectiveness in
overcoming barriers to female entry for the poor and pious.
Events, data and price action in recent days have provided much debate and if anything reinforce my view that volatility in asset prices is unlikely to be tamed any time soon (see Be careful what you wish for, 1 November 2016). The odds of Donald Trump winning next week’s US presidential elections have gone up, the probability of the UK opting for hard Brexit has come down, US data have been mixed and global yields and equities have come off. But ultimately I do not think the underlying picture has changed as much.
Coup and democracy- Daniel MakoiCoup #AntiCoupSouthSudanMakoi Majak
This study examines the occurrence of competitive elections after coups d'etat between 1945 and 2004. It finds that whereas the vast majority of successful coups before 1991 installed durable authoritarian rules, the majority of coups after 1991 were followed by competitive elections. The article argues that after the Cold War ended, international pressure, especially from Western countries, influenced the consequences of coups in other countries. Countries that were more dependent on Western aid were more likely to embrace competitive elections after their coups in the post-Cold War era. This suggests that changes in the international context, particularly the end of the Cold War, help explain the decline in coups and increase in elections following coups since 1991.
This document provides a summary of the key findings from Freedom House's annual report "Freedom in the World 2013" on the state of political rights and civil liberties globally. Some of the main points covered in the summary are:
1) More countries saw declines in political rights and civil liberties in 2012 than improvements, continuing a seven-year trend. However, the number of countries ranked as Free increased by three.
2) Developments in several Middle Eastern and North African countries showed both gains and setbacks for democracy. Egypt transitioned to civilian rule but faced political instability, while Libya and Tunisia made gains but face ongoing challenges.
3) Repressive policies increased in some areas like Russia and Gulf
Voter Preferences and Political Change: Evidence From the Political Economy o...Marcellus Drilling News
A research report that looks at the effect of shale drilling on political races and finds that in areas with shale drilling, more Republican and conservative candidates win and those people tend to vote more conservative. The research was conducted by researchers at Bocconi University (Italy), University of Pennsylvania, and Boston College.
The document summarizes and critiques the Puno ConCom constitution proposal. It argues that the proposal is objectionable due to the current populist context in the Philippines and some concerning content changes. Specifically, it argues that the proposal would further concentrate power in the presidency and weaken checks on executive authority. Additionally, it questions whether federalism is actually the best means to address poverty and inequality in the country based on empirical studies. The document raises doubts about the transition process and risks of political dynasties gaining more regional control under the proposed federal system.
This document summarizes a presentation on the economic transition of formerly socialist economies and the development of alternative institutions. It discusses how 25 years after transition, political institutions diverged more than economic institutions. It also presents analysis showing the density of connections between Russian business and political elites increased over time, and early connections were linked to greater business success, especially in oil industries. The analysis suggests alternative institutions like personal connections filled the gap when appropriate market institutions did not develop fully.
Democracy in Afghanistan the 2014 Election and Beyondmmangusta
This document summarizes a RAND report on Afghanistan's upcoming 2014 presidential election. It discusses how the election will be a crucial test for Afghanistan's democratic transition as international forces withdraw and donors reduce funding. The election will show if Afghanistan can peacefully and credibly transfer power from President Karzai to a new leader. Success could stabilize the country and encourage negotiations with the Taliban, while failure risks political breakdown, civil war, or a power vacuum that undermines security gains.
This document summarizes a working paper that examines how presidents distribute federal funds for political purposes. It discusses theories around "presidential particularism," where presidents target certain groups of voters or constituencies to achieve political objectives like reelection. The paper aims to determine which objectives (reelection, helping copartisan representatives, influencing legislation) presidents target funds toward, and which voter groups (core supporters, swing voters, moderate opponents) they target to achieve these objectives. Using data on federal project grants from 2009-2010, the paper finds evidence that presidents target funds toward core supporters in their and their party's districts to influence elections, but not toward moderate legislators to influence legislation votes. It also finds some executive agencies are more politically motivated than others in
How to Rig an Election: A Study of Electoral Manipulation in AfghanistanJonathon Flegg
The document analyzes electoral manipulation that occurred during the 2009 Afghan presidential election. It identifies key actors, including candidates Karzai, Abdullah, and Bashardost, as well as ethnic groups and external bodies. It finds evidence that Karzai rigged the election through ballot stuffing, voter interference, and intimidation, disproportionately benefiting himself in Pashtun districts. Statistical analysis supports findings of manipulation in Karzai's favor. The conclusion offers recommendations to Karzai on how to better rig future elections.
This document summarizes a paper that investigates how major changes in levels of democracy can lead to the polarization or marginalization of ethnic groups. The paper hypothesizes that rapid gains in democracy can politicize previously non-political ethnic identities, increasing the number of politically relevant ethnic groups. Conversely, rapid losses of democracy can marginalize or exclude certain ethnic groups from political participation and decision-making. Both outcomes could increase ethnic tensions and conflict risk. The document reviews literature on nationalism, nation-building, and state manipulation of ethnic relations. It proposes that during political transitions, governments may increase strategies to maintain control by marginalizing groups, even as rapid democratization could also politicize ethnicity and aggravate ethnic cleav
COVID19 presentation of data and analysis by Radius Energy Solutions. We plot regional, country and state trends as well as model the US States using Mortality Rate as the variable.
Voter turnout is influenced by a variety of individual and social factors. Research shows that whether a person perceives themselves as a "winner" or "loser" after an election, their level of political and social trust, personality traits like conscientiousness, and social pressures all impact their likelihood of voting. The costs and benefits of voting, like fulfilling a civic duty or facing criticism for not voting, also affect an individual's decision. No single factor determines turnout, and different electoral systems can have varying effects depending on other contextual influences.
The document is a report by the World Economic Forum titled "The Global Competitiveness Report 2014–2015" that analyzes the competitiveness of various countries. It was edited by Klaus Schwab and Xavier Sala-i-Martín and thanks various partner institutes around the world for their contributions to the report. The report contains three parts that measure competitiveness, assess progress towards sustainable competitiveness, and discuss the executive opinion survey.
¿Qué es la democracia? ¿Cuál es su razón de ser? por GoldmanYsrrael Camero
This document is an academic article that examines different theories of what constitutes democracy. It argues that democracy is best defined as a system that features substantial equality of political power among citizens, with political power measured in terms of people's ability to influence political outcomes. It acknowledges that measuring and comparing political power can be complex, and introduces some conceptual tools like distinguishing between conditional and unconditional power. The article also compares the political power approach to alternative epistemic and deliberative theories of democracy, and discusses reasons why equality of political power is an attractive feature of democratic systems.
- About three-quarters of Kenyans know the date of the next election in August 2017, but nearly two-thirds support pushing it back to December 2017. Support for changing the date does not differ between supporters of the ruling Jubilee coalition and the opposition CORD coalition.
- Only one-fifth of Kenyans are aware of any voter registration conducted in their locality since the last election. Fewer than half believe the election commission has sufficient public confidence to manage the next election without reforms, though Jubilee supporters are three times as likely as CORD supporters to express confidence.
- Kenyans are divided on whether the ICC case against Deputy President William Ruto should continue or be terminated, and
This summary is based on results from Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC survey of 2015 that was conducted between March 28 and April 7. It is the 9th such release. Given that the tragic attack on Garissa University College occurred on April 2, about 25% of the interviews took place after that date. However, in comparing the results obtained before and after April 2, their distribution was clearly affected more on some issues than others, or not at all. For example, the proportion of those perceiving al-Shabaab as “very much a threat” after April 2 was 14% higher than before that date. By contrast the results presented here (on issues unrelated to security, presidential approval, etc.) were not affected by that tragic attack.
The document analyzes the relationship between political polarization, wealth inequality, voter turnout laws, and voter turnout. Regression models found that political polarization and voter ID laws did not significantly impact turnout, but wealth inequality did have a significant negative effect on turnout. While the study has limitations, it provides initial evidence that increasing wealth inequality, rather than polarization alone, may contribute to decreasing voter participation. Further research is needed to more fully understand the impacts of polarization and inequality on political engagement.
The document discusses the need for electoral reforms in India. It notes that the current electoral process alienates decent citizens from politics due to the need to resort to dishonest methods to get elected and survive in office. While electoral verdicts broadly reflect shifts in public opinion, the use of money, muscle power, and criminal activity gives certain candidates an unfair advantage. This has resulted in most major parties nominating "winnable" candidates lacking in ability and integrity. Competent people are discouraged from entering politics, weakening governance and harming democracy. Reforms are needed to encourage honest citizens to participate and ensure elections are fair.
Does Islamic political control affect women's empowerment? Several countries have recently experienced Islamic parties coming to power through democratic elections. Due to strong support among religious conservatives, constituencies with Islamic rule often tend to exhibit poor women's rights. Whether this relationship reflects a causal or a spurious one has so far gone unexplored. I provide the first piece of evidence using a new and unique dataset of Turkish municipalities. In 1994, an Islamic party won multiple municipal mayor seats across the country. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, I compare municipalities where this Islamic party barely won or lost elections. Despite negative raw correlations, the RD results reveal that over a period of six years, Islamic rule increased female secular high school education. Corresponding effects for men are systematically smaller and less precise. In the longer run, the effect on female education remained persistent up to 17 years after and also reduced adolescent marriages. An analysis of long-run political effects of Islamic rule shows increased female political participation and an overall decrease in Islamic political preferences. The results are consistent with an explanation that emphasizes the Islamic party's effectiveness in
overcoming barriers to female entry for the poor and pious.
Events, data and price action in recent days have provided much debate and if anything reinforce my view that volatility in asset prices is unlikely to be tamed any time soon (see Be careful what you wish for, 1 November 2016). The odds of Donald Trump winning next week’s US presidential elections have gone up, the probability of the UK opting for hard Brexit has come down, US data have been mixed and global yields and equities have come off. But ultimately I do not think the underlying picture has changed as much.
Coup and democracy- Daniel MakoiCoup #AntiCoupSouthSudanMakoi Majak
This study examines the occurrence of competitive elections after coups d'etat between 1945 and 2004. It finds that whereas the vast majority of successful coups before 1991 installed durable authoritarian rules, the majority of coups after 1991 were followed by competitive elections. The article argues that after the Cold War ended, international pressure, especially from Western countries, influenced the consequences of coups in other countries. Countries that were more dependent on Western aid were more likely to embrace competitive elections after their coups in the post-Cold War era. This suggests that changes in the international context, particularly the end of the Cold War, help explain the decline in coups and increase in elections following coups since 1991.
This document provides a summary of the key findings from Freedom House's annual report "Freedom in the World 2013" on the state of political rights and civil liberties globally. Some of the main points covered in the summary are:
1) More countries saw declines in political rights and civil liberties in 2012 than improvements, continuing a seven-year trend. However, the number of countries ranked as Free increased by three.
2) Developments in several Middle Eastern and North African countries showed both gains and setbacks for democracy. Egypt transitioned to civilian rule but faced political instability, while Libya and Tunisia made gains but face ongoing challenges.
3) Repressive policies increased in some areas like Russia and Gulf
Voter Preferences and Political Change: Evidence From the Political Economy o...Marcellus Drilling News
A research report that looks at the effect of shale drilling on political races and finds that in areas with shale drilling, more Republican and conservative candidates win and those people tend to vote more conservative. The research was conducted by researchers at Bocconi University (Italy), University of Pennsylvania, and Boston College.
The document summarizes and critiques the Puno ConCom constitution proposal. It argues that the proposal is objectionable due to the current populist context in the Philippines and some concerning content changes. Specifically, it argues that the proposal would further concentrate power in the presidency and weaken checks on executive authority. Additionally, it questions whether federalism is actually the best means to address poverty and inequality in the country based on empirical studies. The document raises doubts about the transition process and risks of political dynasties gaining more regional control under the proposed federal system.
This document summarizes a presentation on the economic transition of formerly socialist economies and the development of alternative institutions. It discusses how 25 years after transition, political institutions diverged more than economic institutions. It also presents analysis showing the density of connections between Russian business and political elites increased over time, and early connections were linked to greater business success, especially in oil industries. The analysis suggests alternative institutions like personal connections filled the gap when appropriate market institutions did not develop fully.
Democracy in Afghanistan the 2014 Election and Beyondmmangusta
This document summarizes a RAND report on Afghanistan's upcoming 2014 presidential election. It discusses how the election will be a crucial test for Afghanistan's democratic transition as international forces withdraw and donors reduce funding. The election will show if Afghanistan can peacefully and credibly transfer power from President Karzai to a new leader. Success could stabilize the country and encourage negotiations with the Taliban, while failure risks political breakdown, civil war, or a power vacuum that undermines security gains.
This document summarizes a working paper that examines how presidents distribute federal funds for political purposes. It discusses theories around "presidential particularism," where presidents target certain groups of voters or constituencies to achieve political objectives like reelection. The paper aims to determine which objectives (reelection, helping copartisan representatives, influencing legislation) presidents target funds toward, and which voter groups (core supporters, swing voters, moderate opponents) they target to achieve these objectives. Using data on federal project grants from 2009-2010, the paper finds evidence that presidents target funds toward core supporters in their and their party's districts to influence elections, but not toward moderate legislators to influence legislation votes. It also finds some executive agencies are more politically motivated than others in
How to Rig an Election: A Study of Electoral Manipulation in AfghanistanJonathon Flegg
The document analyzes electoral manipulation that occurred during the 2009 Afghan presidential election. It identifies key actors, including candidates Karzai, Abdullah, and Bashardost, as well as ethnic groups and external bodies. It finds evidence that Karzai rigged the election through ballot stuffing, voter interference, and intimidation, disproportionately benefiting himself in Pashtun districts. Statistical analysis supports findings of manipulation in Karzai's favor. The conclusion offers recommendations to Karzai on how to better rig future elections.
This document summarizes a paper that investigates how major changes in levels of democracy can lead to the polarization or marginalization of ethnic groups. The paper hypothesizes that rapid gains in democracy can politicize previously non-political ethnic identities, increasing the number of politically relevant ethnic groups. Conversely, rapid losses of democracy can marginalize or exclude certain ethnic groups from political participation and decision-making. Both outcomes could increase ethnic tensions and conflict risk. The document reviews literature on nationalism, nation-building, and state manipulation of ethnic relations. It proposes that during political transitions, governments may increase strategies to maintain control by marginalizing groups, even as rapid democratization could also politicize ethnicity and aggravate ethnic cleav
COVID19 presentation of data and analysis by Radius Energy Solutions. We plot regional, country and state trends as well as model the US States using Mortality Rate as the variable.
Voter turnout is influenced by a variety of individual and social factors. Research shows that whether a person perceives themselves as a "winner" or "loser" after an election, their level of political and social trust, personality traits like conscientiousness, and social pressures all impact their likelihood of voting. The costs and benefits of voting, like fulfilling a civic duty or facing criticism for not voting, also affect an individual's decision. No single factor determines turnout, and different electoral systems can have varying effects depending on other contextual influences.
The document is a report by the World Economic Forum titled "The Global Competitiveness Report 2014–2015" that analyzes the competitiveness of various countries. It was edited by Klaus Schwab and Xavier Sala-i-Martín and thanks various partner institutes around the world for their contributions to the report. The report contains three parts that measure competitiveness, assess progress towards sustainable competitiveness, and discuss the executive opinion survey.
¿Qué es la democracia? ¿Cuál es su razón de ser? por GoldmanYsrrael Camero
This document is an academic article that examines different theories of what constitutes democracy. It argues that democracy is best defined as a system that features substantial equality of political power among citizens, with political power measured in terms of people's ability to influence political outcomes. It acknowledges that measuring and comparing political power can be complex, and introduces some conceptual tools like distinguishing between conditional and unconditional power. The article also compares the political power approach to alternative epistemic and deliberative theories of democracy, and discusses reasons why equality of political power is an attractive feature of democratic systems.
Balance of power. Report final (june, 23, 2015)Ysrrael Camero
This report examines global public opinion about the United States, China, and the international balance of power, as well as key issues in Asia. It is based on 45,435 face-to-face and telephone interviews in 40 countries with adults 18 and older conducted from March 25 to May 27, 2015. For more details, see survey methodology and topline results.
Chapter 1 explores America’s image worldwide, including views of U.S. actions against ISIS, post- 9/11 interrogation practices, whether the U.S. government respects Americans’ personal freedoms and President Obama and his handling of international issues. Chapter 2 examines China’s image and perceptions about the balance of power between the U.S. and China. Chapter 3 puts Asia in focus, looking at support for TPP, economic ties with the U.S. and China, U.S. military resources in the region, relationships with China and Americans’ willingness to defend Asian allies against China.
Company profile of MARKETiN CEE - a business strategy, trade and marketing consultancy using customized market research and competitive intelligence to provide clients with relevant information and knowledge on markets, industries and companies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).
The document analyzes the evolution of homicides in Venezuela between 1985 and 2010 and proposes three phases:
1) 1985-1993: Characterized by the 1989 looting crisis and 1992 coups, homicide rates rose from 8 to 20 per 100,000 inhabitants.
2) 1994-1998: A period of recovery with stable institutions and politics, homicide rates remained around 20.
3) 1999-2010: Beginning with Chavez's government, institutional destruction caused rates to increase from 20 to 57, reflecting transformations in social and political institutions.
The top 3 trends for 2015 are:
1. Deepening income inequality as wages stagnate and the gap between rich and poor widens.
2. Persistent jobless growth as strong GDP growth fails to generate sufficient employment opportunities.
3. A lack of leadership and rising geopolitical tensions as the global political system fragments and nationalism increases, threatening stability.
This document is the 2015 annual report on economic freedom around the world published by the Fraser Institute. It measures the degree of economic freedom in 157 countries based on 42 indicators in 5 areas. Countries with high economic freedom have faster economic growth, higher incomes, and better human development outcomes. The report finds that average global economic freedom has increased since 1980 but declined in the United States in recent years, which could significantly slow its economic growth. It provides country-by-country data on levels of economic freedom and discusses the importance of economic freedom for human progress.
Resolución 488 de la Cámara de Representantes de Estados Unidos sobre VenezuelaYsrrael Camero
Resolución aprobada por la Cámara de Representantes 393 votos contra uno salvado condenando la violación de derechos humanos ocurridas en Venezuela el mes de febrero de 2014.
Perfil de Venezuela en Informe Doing Business 2015Ysrrael Camero
This document provides an overview of key information about doing business in Venezuela in 2015. It discusses 11 indicators that measure regulations affecting various aspects of running a business, including starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency, and labor market regulation. The data and analysis can help identify which regulatory reforms have worked in improving the business environment and where challenges still remain.
The 2014 Global Peace Index showed a slight deterioration in global peace continuing a seven year trend. The economic impact of violence amounted to $9.8 trillion or 11.3% of global GDP, up from 2012. Europe remained the most peaceful region while South Asia improved the most. Internal conflicts increased, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East due to issues like South Sudan's civil war and Syria's conflict. Militarization decreased in some areas but increased in others like the Middle East.
2016 Cronograma Historia Económica de Venezuela (Sem. 2-2015)Ysrrael Camero
Cronograma de Historia Económica de Venezuela, correspondiente al Semestre 2-2015, a iniciar el 11 de enero de 2016. Está sujeto a cambios derivados de la reprogramación del semestre.
The document summarizes the debate around whether democracy is experiencing a global decline or recession. It argues that claims of a democratic recession are overstated and not supported by empirical data from leading democracy indices. While a few countries have experienced democratic breakdowns, like Thailand and Venezuela, the number is relatively small and is matched by countries that have become more democratic. Overall, global democracy has remained stable over the last decade according to measures like the number of democracies and average democracy scores in indices. Perceptions of decline are skewed by unrealistic expectations following the democratic optimism of the early post-Cold War period.
This document provides a summary of Jean Tirole's scientific contributions in the fields of industrial organization and regulation. It highlights that Tirole established a new standard of rigor by deriving results from fundamental assumptions about preferences, technologies, and information asymmetries. He created a unified theoretical framework and brought order to the literature. Tirole's models have sharpened policy analysis by focusing on the fundamental features that generate divergences between private and public interests. The document provides an overview of Tirole's seminal work on public regulation of natural monopolies and industry-specific regulation, noting his exceptional ability to grasp key economic features and produce normative conclusions with practical significance.
2016 Cronograma Historia Económica I (Sem. 2-2015)Ysrrael Camero
Cronograma de Historia Económica I, a dictarse en el semestre 2-2015, que se inició el 11 de enero de 2016. Es una versión preliminar, sujeta a las reformas derivadas de la reprogramación del semestre.
This document provides an overview of Dutch Christian anarchists in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. It lists the names of key figures such as Felix Ortt, who was the most important Dutch Christian anarchist theorist, as well as locations like the village of Blaricum where the first Christian anarchist colony was founded. Various ministers, theologians, and intellectuals are mentioned who were involved with or influenced by the Christian anarchist movement in the Netherlands during this time period.
This document discusses different types of party systems, including single-party states, two-party systems, and multi-party systems. A single-party state allows only one political party, while a two-party system is dominated by two major parties. A multi-party system allows multiple parties to gain control of government offices through elections and coalition governments. The document provides examples of countries that use multi-party systems effectively in their democracies.
This document discusses the principal types of party systems: one-party systems, two-party systems, and multi-party systems. One-party systems are found in authoritarian countries and are characterized by a lack of opposition parties. Two-party systems, like in the US and UK, are dominated by two major parties. Multi-party systems have more than two viable parties and can be unstable, like in India, or stable if power alternates between a small set of parties. The document also compares the advantages and disadvantages of two-party versus multi-party systems.
Who and What Ought Government RepresentWith the close of anot.docxphilipnelson29183
Who and What Ought Government Represent?
With the close of another presidential election cycle, we once again heard complaints about the Electoral College, that mysterious group of appointees sent from each state to officially choose the next president in accordance with formulae determined by each state. That most states choose the formula of committing all their electors to the candidate who wins the plurality of votes in that state’s popular election is coincidental and established by no federal mandate. At any rate, the fact that more and more people in this country think this to be an undemocratic way of choosing a president might give us pause to reflect on what it means for government to be representative in the first place.
The description of government “of the people, by the people, and for the people” doesn’t solve the problem, since here at issue is not just who it is to be represented, but the manner of representation. Still, it is important to settle who “the people” are or ought to be, so let’s start there.
One common assumption is that the people are the citizens of the state or nation in question. But this leaves out all other residents. Should government only represent its citizens and not its residents? If so, would that not quite probably lead to a form of tyranny by citizens over non-citizens?
Perhaps one might agree to extend the representation, but only to legal residents. But there are strong considerations – both of a utilitarian and non-utilitarian nature – arguing for inclusion of illegal residents as well. Not to represent them is either to ignore their presence or to oppose their presence. Either policy leads to social chaos, since such a large group as this cannot be easily removed or treated with contempt without a great deal of harm not only to them, but to citizens and other legal residents as well.
A final thought on the “who” question is that we may be on the verge of having to recognize that our president must in some significant sense represent not just citizens and residents of this land, but of the whole world.
As to the manner of representation, baffled by the Electoral College are perhaps taken by the assumption that government‘s representative duty is exclusively to the individual. But this is clearly not how America’s forefathers thought, and their reasons are grounded in the fear of what John Stuart Mill called the Tyranny of the Majority: that a majority can stifle the voice and political life of minority voices and thus thwart the benefits of democracy, which are grounded in freedom of speech and cultivation of diversity of opinion.
To offset the likelihood of a Tyranny of the Majority requires a republic to balance individual representation against another form of representation; typically either geographical: typically in the form of smaller units of government – in our case, states – or political: typically in the form of proportionate representation of political parties – a common .
Understanding Constitutions Political Parties.docxwrite5
A constitution outlines how a government or country is governed, establishing the rules and limitations on governmental powers. Constitutions can be rigid, making changes difficult, or flexible, allowing routine amendments. Political parties aim to influence government actions by electing representatives, while pressure groups advocate for specific issues. An electoral system establishes voting procedures and how votes are counted to determine election outcomes. Factors like voter turnout, the electoral college system, and setting election dates in advance impact how democratic the process is.
The document provides an overview of key concepts in U.S. government and politics, including political culture, parties, elections, branches of government, interest groups, and policies/documents. Some key topics covered include political socialization, voting demographics, media influence, political ideologies, primary elections, the electoral college system, congressional committees, executive powers, Supreme Court cases, and the federal bureaucracy.
The US presidential election follows a unique process called the E.docxchristalgrieg
The US presidential election follows a unique process called the Electoral College. When the Founders drafted the Constitution, they set out different voting procedures for each of the elected branches of government. The House of Representatives was elected directly by voters in specific geographic districts: the Senate was elected by the members of the state legislatures: and the president was elected by an entirely different body called the Electoral College.
The Electoral College is made up of electors from each state. The number of electors each state receives is based on its total number of representatives in Congress, that is, the number of members it has in the House of Representatives, plus its two senators. For states with very small populations such as Wyoming and Rhode Island, which have only one member in the House of Representatives, the Electoral College amplifies their influence in the presidential election by adding their two senators, for a total of three Electoral College votes. For large population states such as California and Texas, the addition of two senators to a large number of representatives in the House (53 for CA, 36 for TX), does not increase their political influence significantly.
The Electoral College reflects the compromises that the Framers of the Constitution struggled with in regard to issues of representation, in that both population size through the House of Representatives delegation, as well as equality among the states through the Senate are taken into account. In practice, however, it is neither the largest nor smallest states that hold the most important sway in the Electoral College; it is the “battleground states” that may determine the ultimate outcome of the presidential election in any given year.
Electoral College Votes Allotted by State and District, 2012
A great deal of attention is focused on the “red” vs. “blue” states in the Electoral College map in every presidential election. But in fact the most attention is reserved for the handful of states — usually eight to ten — that will make the difference in reaching the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes for one candidate or the other, and thereby determine the winner of the US presidency.
The total number of Electoral College votes is 538. This is made up of the 435 votes based on the membership of the US House of Representatives, plus the 100 votes from the Senate. Another three Electoral College votes are given to Washington, DC. This is provided for by the 23rd Amendment to the Constitution to ensure that residents of the nation’s capital are represented in presidential elections. A majority of 270 Electoral College votes is therefore needed to win the presidency.
Nearly all states follow the unit rule, meaning that they award all of their Electoral College votes to the candidate who wins the most votes in that state. This is truly a “winner-take-all” system, in which the candidate with a plurality of the vote takes the entire ele ...
Some analysts worry that the U.S. may be at risk of democratic backsliding similar to other countries. Democratic backsliding involves leaders weakening democratic institutions and norms. Historically, common forms included coups, executives consolidating power, and election fraud. However, the frequency of such actions has declined in recent decades. Instead, democratic backsliding now often involves more gradual, legal actions that undermine democracy over the long term. The main factors protecting against backsliding are respect for democratic norms and institutions.
What Are America’s Checks And Balances - Google Docs.pdfDC Diew
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- Majoritarian electoral systems emphasize the "winner-takes-all" approach where candidates must receive a majority of votes, while proportional systems reflect divisions in the electorate proportionally in the elected body.
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The document discusses the nature and classification of political parties. It defines political parties and explains their indispensable role in democracy. It classifies party systems into single-party, two-party, and multi-party systems based on the number of parties. Each system type has its own merits and demerits. A single-party system can provide stability but risks becoming tyrannical without opposition. A two-party system ensures stability through alternating governments but offers limited choice. A multi-party system is more representative of public opinion but prone to instability through coalition governments. Political parties perform important functions like organizing elections, forming governments, providing opposition, and coordinating different branches of government.
The document discusses the electoral system used in the United Kingdom. It notes that different systems are used to elect representatives to different bodies, such as the House of Commons, devolved assemblies, and local authorities. One prominent system is the first-past-the-post system, where the candidate with the most votes wins, even if they do not receive a majority. This system is contested by some but prevalent in many countries. The document goes on to discuss advantages and disadvantages of the UK's electoral system.
Sentencia de la Sala Constitucional del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia que modifica el Reglamento Interior y de Debates de la Asamblea Nacional, colocando al Parlamento bajo control irregular del Ejecutivo, destruyendo su autonomía institucional.
Carta de Luis Almagro, Secretario General de la Organización de Estados Americanos, a Tibisay Lucena, Presidente del Consejo Nacional Electoral de Venezuela. Texto tomado de http://sumarium.com/la-carta-integra-de-almagro/
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2. 416 PS • July 2015
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Features: Five Laws o f Po litic s
(e.g., universal male suffrage), and the outcome was relatively
straightforward. In parliamentary democracies, the prime minis-
ter’s party almost always is treated as the incumbent. However, in
some cases in which a coalition of several small-to medium-sized
parties held together for more than one term (e.g., Sweden), the
combined vote of the coalition was used. Also, it was not possible
to determine the percentage of the vote to attribute to parties that
were members of a coalition that disintegrated before the elec-
tion. In those instances, only the outcome was entered. Further-
more, a few elections were omitted because they resulted in hung
parliaments. In summary, there is a certain amount of “noise” or
“dross” in the data; other scholars may filter it out somewhat dif-
ferently than I did. Therefore, with publication, all data is availa-
ble in an Excel file on my web page.3
LAW #1: THE LAW OF MINORITY RULE
All governments are minority governments.4 Few would doubt
that this generalization applies to autocracies, in which a single
or dominant party or organization, controlled by a dictator or
an oligarchy, uses force and fraud to control the state. However,
the rule also applies to democracies, as shown in table 1. (Hence-
forth, all data references are to this table.) The average turnout is
approximately three quarters of the electorate, whereas the mean
percentage of the vote going to the governing party—that is, the
incumbents—is in the low forties. These facts mean two things:
(1) typically, more than half of those who show up at the polls—
the “selectorate”5—cast their ballots for a party other than the
governing party; and (2) those that do back the incumbents con-
stitute only about one third of the electorate. This pattern holds
across cultural regions and constitutional types, variables which
in this study are almost perfectly coterminous: all democracies
from Ibero-America except Spain and Portugal (a mixed regime)
are presidential, whereas parliamentary democracies populate
everywhere else except in the United States and France (the lat-
ter, like Portugal, is a mixed regime).
LAW #2: THE LAW OF INCUMBENT ADVANTAGE
In democracies, the governing party or coalition is returned to
office more often than not. Notwithstanding Law #1, across all
countries, the incumbent reelection rate, on average, is 60%. (There
is substantial variation across regions—that is, two-thirds in the
well-established democracies of the Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) versus slightly less than
half in Ibero-America.) This is because the opposition can be badly
divided. Additionally, in parliamentary governments there is a
certain disproportionality between seats and votes, and votes are
wasted on parties that do not win any seats; or the plurality winner
strikes deals with minority parties and independents on a case-by-
case basis or forms a “minority government” (in the parliamentary
sense) for a brief period (Lijphart 1997). Also, the selectorate may
be somewhat biased in favor of the “devil” they know (Hibbs 2000).
That democracies are characterized by minority governments
ruled by parties that enjoy an electoral advantage over their
competitors does not necessarily render them unrepresentative.
For one thing, because incumbents lose elections about 40% of
the time, over the long run roughly two-thirds of the electorate
is included among the supporters of one administration (i.e.,
“government” in the parliamentary sense) or another. Moreover,
governing parties usually pursue moderate policies (McDonald
and Budge 2005, 171–80), and alternation in office ensures that
policy targets are periodically reoriented in the direction of mov-
ing median or modal voter preferences (Budge et al. 2012, 251–3).
LAW #3: THE LAW OF SHRINKING SUPPORT
All incumbents face growing opposition during their tenure; or,
as Nannestad and Paldam (1999) stated, “It costs votes to rule.”
Note that in table 1, on average the incumbents lose four to six
percentage points of their share of the vote per term. Again, there
is great variation across cultural regions. In the OECD countries
(excluding members from Ibero-America), the average loss across
277 elections (many of them dating from the nineteenth century)
is between 2.4 and 2.6 percentage points. This estimate is almost
identical to those of Nannestad and Paldam( 2.25%) and Budge
et al. ( 2.33%), respectively calculated for more than 282 and 215
post–World War II elections in 18 European countries, plus the
United States, and in the former’s case, Japan.6 Nannestad and
Paldam called this phenomenon a “solid stone,” something that
is “remarkably constant” in established democracies operating
under normal conditions.Yet, they added, “It is generally not well
known how robust the fact actually is” (Nannestad and Paldam
1999, 3, 21).
Note that I found their article (and my attention was called
to Budge et al.’s book) only after I had made most of the initial
calculations displayed in table 1. Thus, although their findings
were reported earlier, I obtained approximately the same results
in ignorance of their prior discovery. The fact that sets of devel-
oped democracies varying in the number and timing of their
elections yield similar estimates of the “cost of ruling” well may
strengthen the discipline’s confidence in “the law of shrinking
support.”
The erosion of support is not uniform across the ruling party’s
spell in office. In fact, in some cases, the incumbent party’s vote
share rises, even substantially, in their first reelection—especially
if in the prior election, when it was elevated to office, the electorate
had fractured in the midst of an economic or political crisis. This
also may happen when a new democracy is experiencing a period
of electoral sorting and consolidation, asGermany did in the 1950s.
Also, within the same period in office, there are occasional small
upticks in the governing party’s vote. However, these are offset by
larger downturns in subsequent elections; sooner or later, the “dam
breaks” and the proverbial “rascals” are “kicked out.”
There is no reason to believe that dictatorships are exempted
from this law. In political rituals crafted as acclamations or
affirmations of the dictatorship of a person or a ruling party, 15
dictatorships that vary in type, ideological cast, culture, region,
and period each held about eight elections-cum-referendums on
However, these are offset by larger downturns in subsequent elections; sooner or later, the
“dam breaks” and the proverbial “rascals” are “kicked out.”
3. PS • July 2015 417
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
its Spanish initials) routinely
claimed nearly universal support
for its presidential candidate. As
late as 1976, the PRI’s standard
bearer ran without opposition.
In the next two decades, having
loosened electoral controls and
suffered a scission when the son
of a former president bolted to
make an independent run, its
share of the vote contracted with
every presidential election: 74%
in 1982, 51% in 1988, 49% in 1994,
and 36% in 2000, when it was
ousted. Unlike most other ruling
parties, however, the PRI sur-
vived; in 2012, it recaptured the
presidencywith a 39% plurality.
LAW #4: THE 60% INCUMBENT
MAXIMUM IN DEMOCRACIES
It is rare for the governing party
in a democracy to be reelected
with more than 60% of the vote,
and it never happens more than
once within the same spell in
office. Generally, incumbents in
a parliamentary system are ree-
lected with no more than 50% of
the vote; in a presidential system,
60% is the typical limit (in the
first round of voting, if there is
more than one round). In fact,
theaveragemaximumincumbent
share of the vote is nearly identi-
cal across cultural groups: 53.4%
(s.d.=4.3) in the OECD democra-
cies and 53.1% (s.d.=4.6) in Ibero-
America. In only a few genuine
cases from three democracies did
the incumbents garner more than
afewpointsabove60%:Barbados,
65%(1999);Colombia,62%(2006);
and the United States, 61% (1936,
1964, 1972). In all, these excep-
tions total 1.2% of all elections.
Two apparent exceptions merit comment. The first is the 1991
Portuguese presidential election. Portugal has a mixed regime,
with a president who exercises limited executive powers and a
strong prime minister who is in charge of the government. That
year, the Socialist Mário Soares—a genuine democratic hero who
previously had served as prime minister—soared to a record reelec-
tion victory, taking 70% of the vote. What made this possible
was the support of the major right-of-center party, the Social
Democratic Party (PSD by its Portuguese initials), and its leader
and prime minister, Aníbal Cavaco Silva. Without a major-party
challenge, Soares won, we might say, by acclamation.
The second apparent exception took place in the Dominican
Republic in 1974, when Joaquín Balaguer was reelected with
85% of the vote amid an opposition boycott and charges of fraud.
average, claiming more than 90% support.7 Yet, the moment when
an actual election was held, all of the ruling parties crashed and
most disappeared from the political stage. Among communist
dictatorships, perhaps the signal event took place in Poland. In
1989, the “Solidarity Citizens’ Committee” captured all but 10 of
the 261 seats in the Sejm (i.e., the Lower House of Parliament)
and all but one of the Senate seats for which it was allowed to
compete. Thus, “In the first free voting . . . support for the Com-
munists was shown to lie somewhere between three and four per-
cent” (Davies 2005, 503). Sister parties in Czechoslovakia, East
Germany (GDR), and Hungary suffered similar fates the follow-
ing year.
A more gradual decline occurred in Mexico. For more than
a half-century, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI by
Table 1
Election Outcomes for Governing Parties in Democracies: Summary
Statistics, Total and by Region
Percent
Turnout
Representation
Rate (d)
Incumbent Percent
of theVote
Incumbent Point
Loss/Term
Percent Incumbent
Wins (e)
A. Complete Set: 23 democracies, 426 elections (a)
Average of within country means 74 30 41 -5.6 55
Standard deviation 11 6 5 3.7 13
Average of pooled data set 75 32 42 -4.1 60
Standard deviation 13 10 10 8.7 49
Maximum value 97 54(g) 65(h) -42(f) 77
Minimum value 34 3 4 21(f) 27
B. OECD Region: North America/Europe/Japan/Antipodes: 9 democracies, 277 elections (b)
Average of within country means 79 32 40 -2.4 65
Standard deviation 7 6 6 0.97 11
Average of pooled data set 77 33 43 -2.6 65
Standard deviation 12 9 9 6.7 48
Maximum value 96 54(g) 61 -27(f) 77
Minimum value 49 8 16 18(f) 46
C. Ibero-America: Latin America, Portugal, and Spain: 12 democracies, 119 elections (c)
Average of within country means 74 29 40 -8.7 49
Standard deviation 12 5 4 2.9 13
Average of pooled data set 74 29 40 -8.3 48
Standard deviation 14 10 12 11.6 49
Maximum value 97 53 62(i) -42(f) 67
Minimum value 34 3 4 21(f) 27
Notes: In presidential democracies that include a runoff, as well as in French legislative elections, the vote entered is that of the first
or only round.
(a) All democracies listed in B and C plus India (1951–2014) and Barbados (1951–2013).
(b) Australia (1901–2013), Canada (1872–2011), France (presidential, 1965–2012), France (legislative, 1958–2012), Germany
(1949–2013), Japan (1958–2012), New Zealand (1914–2014), Sweden (1932–2014), United Kingdom (1922–2010), United States
(1828–2012).
(c) Argentina (1983–2011), Brazil (1989–2014), Chile (1938–1970), Chile (1989–2013), Colombia (1974–2014), Costa Rica
(1953–2014), Cuba (1940–1948), Dominican Republic (1966–2012), Mexico (1988–2012), Portugal (parliamentary, 1976–2011),
Portugal (presidential, 1986–2011), Spain (1976–2011), Uruguay (1984–2014), Venezuela (1958–1993).
(d) The representation rate is the percent of the total electorate that voted for the incumbents.
(e) This variable is scored 1 if the incumbent party (although not necessarily its same leader) retained the presidency or premier-
ship; 0 otherwise.
(f) Typically, the incumbent loses votes from one election to the next but sometimes it gains votes. The maximum value refers to the
largest loss in one election and the minimum refers to the largest gain. That is, the minimum loss is the maximum gain.
(g) Australia (1966). In only nine elections (2.1% of the total) did this variable exceed 50%; all but two were in Australia.
(h) Barbados, 1999. Presidential elections in Portugal (1991) and Dominican Republic (1974) excluded. See text.
(i) Colombia, 2006. Presidential elections in Portugal (1991) and Dominican Republic (1974) excluded. See text.
4. 418 PS • July 2015
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Features: Five Laws o f Po litic s
Indeed, the artificiality of Balaguer’s victory was exposed in the
next election, which he lost by almost 10 percentage points. Thus,
the inflated percentages in these two cases are accounted for by
opposition abstention—one amicable, the other not. In summary,
the 60% rule serves as a boundary between all democracies and
most dictatorships.8
LAW #5: THE LAW OF PARTIALS
No one party or coalition of parties, much less a “Führer,” “Duce,”
or “maximum leader,” can encompass the entire range andvariety
of interests and ideas that comprise a political community.
This law is rooted in thevery nature of politics and the state, and
it serves as the foundation of the previous four. As Aristotle taught
long ago: “the nature of the state is to be a plurality” (Jowett 1885).
The “‘organic’ common will,” whether of a nation, Volk, or class,
is a “fiction” (Kelsen 2013, 33). The moment an electorate is
free to choose among candidates and parties espousing a vari-
ety of programs, personalities, and styles of governing, what
Wittfogel (1957, 430) calls “the germs of a multicentered soci-
ety” are released and multiply. Thus, the “will of society emerges
from competing parties” (Kelsen 2013, 33) the principal object
of which, other than ruling per se, is to win sufficient votes
or seats in elections, legislatures, and judicial bodies to steer
government policy in the direction desired by its cadre and sup-
porters. However, success—if and when it comes—is short-lived:
the law of shrinking support soon kicks in, inexorably eroding
the size of the incumbent’s electoral coalition until it is driven
from office. In the democracies, incumbents serve on average two
to three terms in spells lasting nine years. Thus, over time, var-
ious fractions of the electorate combine into alternate winning
coalitions—a modern, reduced version of Aristotle’s principle of
citizens taking turns at ruling and being ruled—and the state is
governed with a minimum of political coercion (Przeworski 2009).
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
This article presents evidence attesting to what appear to be five
laws of politics. They do not strike me as controversial. All gov-
ernments, certainly autocracies but also democracies, can count
on the votes of only a minority of the electorate—even if in the
latter that minority represents a plurality. That incumbents enjoy
an advantage over opposition parties and candidates—probably
derived at least in part from their exploitation of state resources
for partisan gain—should come as no surprise. Notwithstanding
this advantage, the fact that, on average, incumbents lose support
from term to term—with some exceptions, usually early in their
tenure that are offset in subsequent elections—is “one of the
few obvious regularities observed in political science” (Budge
et al. 2012, 255). Finally, the fact thatvigorous competition among
political parties limits the incumbents in almost all cases to no
more than 60% of the vote, and usually considerably less, is read-
ily observable. The conclusion is inescapable: the state is a plural-
ity, and no organic conception captures its essence.
If, on reflection, these laws appear elemental—describing
properties and patterns inherent in the very nature of politics
and the state—the question then becomes: Why are they not
presented in every course of political science? I submit that we,
as a discipline, have been too diffident about professing what
we know about our subject. Of course, to proclaim these laws
(or “laws,” if the reader prefers) is not to explain them. That is
a separate task requiring additional space and, frankly, hard
thinking. However, the natural sciences have not hesitated in
announcing the operation of laws before they were fully under-
stood (Feynman 1995). Be that as it may, I conclude with the hope
that—in true Popperian fashion—otherswill take up the challenge
to falsify these laws.9 My guess is that they will survive all empir-
ical assaults.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I am grateful to The University of West Florida for its generous
support. Also, for their encouragement, suggestions, or construc-
tive criticisms, I thank Ian Budge, John M. Carey, Cal Clark, Josep
Colomer, Erica Frantz, Andrew Gelman, Jane Greene, Richard
J. Heggen, Douglas Hibbs, Kenneth Janda, William Jennings,
Randall J. Jones Jr., Arend Lijphart, Scott J. Morgenstern, Vello
Pettai, Larry Sabato, Rein Taagepera, William B. Tankersley, and
the editors and reviewers of this journal. Thanks, as well, go to
Megan Morrison and Daniel Dorman, graduate assistants in the
department of government at UWF, for their help. The usual dis-
claimer applies: any errors of fact or interpretation, or deficiencies
in presentation, are my own.
NOTES
1. For an exception, see Brians (2014).
2. For those who may wonder about the accuracy of election results in Wikipedia,
some assurance may be taken from Brown (2011: 340), who in the case of
American state elections concluded that “A statistical analysis based on
Wikipedia’s reported election results would return essentially the same results
as an analysis relying on official data.”
3. Available at http://uwf.edu/cassh/departments/government/our-faculty/faculty-
profiles/acuzan/cpubs.
4. In this context, the phrase “minority government” applies to all governments,
not only a parliamentary party or coalition that takes control of the executive
despite the fact that it occupies less than a majority of seats.
5. The term selectorate is borrowed from de Mesquita and Smith (2012).
6. Nannestad and Paldam (1999, 4); Budge et al. (2012, 275–6).
7. Included in this calculation are dictatorships that ruled the following countries
for varying periods: Brazil, Cuba, Czechoslovakia, Dominican Republic, Egypt,
Germany under Hitler, East Germany under the communists, Indonesia, Italy,
Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Poland, Portugal, and the Soviet Union.
8. I state “most” because not all dictatorships exert such complete control over the
electorate as to be able routinely to manufacture overwhelming victories at the
polls (e.g., Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe).
9. Davenport (2007, 8) avers that in our discipline, “very few relationships withstand
closescrutiny” (emphasis added).
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