Ipsos conducted its first quarterly SPEC survey during the period of 28th March to 7th April 2015. The topics covered in this Media Release are: (1) corruption, (2) the al-Shabaab threat, and (3) the digital migration. The questionnaire was finalized immediately after the President’s ‘State of the Nation’ address to parliament. Because the Garissa attack occurred after fieldwork had begun, no questions about this tragic event could be included. However, since about two-thirds of all field interviews had been completed by 2nd April, and the final one-quarter were conducted between 3rd and 7th April, it has been possible to compare responses on certain relevant questions by these two sections of the respondents.

1. Page 1 of 15
Nairobi, Kenya
17th
April 2015
For immediate release
Ipsos conducted its first quarterly SPEC survey during the period of 28th March to
7th April 2015. The topics covered in this Media Release are: (1) corruption, (2) the
al-Shabaab threat, and (3) the digital migration.
The questionnaire was finalized immediately after the President’s ‘State of the
Nation’ address to parliament. Because the Garissa attack occurred after fieldwork
had begun, no questions about this tragic event could be included. However, since
about two-thirds of all field interviews had been completed by 2nd
April, and the final
one-quarter were conducted between 3rd
and 7th
April, it has been possible to
compare responses on certain relevant questions by these two sections of the
respondents.
Two thirds of Kenyans believe that al-Shabaab is “very much of a
threat” to Kenya
A survey by Ipsos reveals that 70% of Kenyans feel that al-Shabaab poses as a
threat to Kenya when asked the question: How much of a threat do you think al-
Shabaab is to Kenya as of now. It is important to note however that this finding
cannot determine what proportion of the entire sample actually knew about the
attack when they were interviewed (since no question about this had been included
in the survey when it was finalized in late March, for obvious reasons).
“How much of a threat do you think al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of
now?: by Total, Before/After 2nd April
70%
18%
8%
2% 2%
66%
20%
10%
2% 3%
80%
14%
4%
1% 0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Very Much a
Threat
Somewhat of a
Threat
Not Much of a
Threat
Not at All a Threat Not Sure
Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,394 After 2nd April (n=452)
14% Increase

2. Page 2 of 15
Awareness of KDF presence in Somalia significantly high across
the Republic
Beyond the national average of about three-quarters of Kenyans aware of the KDF’s
presence in Somalia (73%), there is a considerable cognizance of this reality, from a
high in Nairobi (79%) to a low in Western (57%).
Nearly half of all respondents (49%) believe that the presence of KDF in Somalia (as
part of AMISOM) makes the return of refugees in Kenya less likely and future
terrorist attacks more likely (49%), almost as many (47%) assume it will help
produce a stable and peaceful country under its current government.
However, when the results obtained before and after the Garissa attack on 2nd
April
are compared, the proportion expecting negative effects increased on all four
outcomes, the largest being the likelihood of more terrorist attacks in Kenya (10%
increase). This appears to explain the small but notable increase in support for the
withdrawal of the KDF and having them deployed at the Kenya-Somali border
between those interviewed before and after this date (48% vs. 44%, the overall total
being 45%). A similar decrease is seen in support for the continued deployment of
the KDF in Somalia overall (from 53% to 48%), though it is unclear if even this small
decrease is just a momentary reaction to the Garissa tragedy, or part of a longer
term trend.
Those Believing Each of the Following Will be “More Likely”:
by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia
36%
49%
26%
34%
39%
48%
28%
37%
31%
58%
23%
29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
A unified and stable
country under the new
Government of
Somalia
An increase in terrorist
attacks in Kenya
Refugees able to
return to their homes
in Somalia
The military defeat of-
Shabaab
Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357)
10% Increase

3. Page 3 of 15
The most dramatic contrast with reference to the 2nd
April dividing-line, however, is
the dramatic increase in those who consider al-Shabaab to be “a major threat” (64%
before April 2, and 80% after).
Teachers’ Refuse to Return to Schools in North Eastern
A clear majority of Kenyans (88%) sympathize with the position of teachers from
other parts of the country who have rejected calls to return to their stations of work in
North Eastern Kenya following the slaughter of a number of their colleagues
travelling on a Nairobi bound bus from Mandera last December. Indeed, only among
residents (of North Eastern region) does this figure fall below four-fifths of
respondents in the other regions, and dramatically so (59%). Moreover, the national
level support for the teachers rose markedly among respondents interviewed before
and after the Garissa attack (from 87% to 93%).
“How much of a threat do you think al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of
now?: by Total, Before/After 2nd April
70%
18%
8%
2% 2%
66%
20%
10%
2% 3%
80%
14%
4%
1% 0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Very Much a
Threat
Somewhat of a
Threat
Not Much of a
Threat
Not at All a Threat Not Sure
Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,394 After 2nd April (n=452)
14% Increase

4. Page 4 of 15
Kenyan Sentiments with on Corruption
Local Level Land-Grabbing
Overall, 15% of Kenyans are aware of land that was previously public but has been
‘grabbed’ for private use. However, this figure ranges significantly from a high in the
Coast region (29%) – closely followed by Nairobi with 24% – to just 7% in Western,
apparently a reflection of the commercial-financial attractiveness of land in various
parts of the country.
In terms of the specific previous use of such grabbed land, educational facilities have
suffered the most, followed by communal land (35% and 28%, respectively).
Only about one-third (34%) of all those aware of such ‘grabbing’ report that any
efforts are being made to recover the land concerned, though among these, over
two-thirds (71%) are hopeful that such recovery can be achieved.
National Level Scandals
Turning to the national level, well over half of all Kenyans (57%) acknowledge
awareness of at least one corruption scandal since the Jubilee government came
into power. It is worthy to note, however, that several of these scandals (e.g., Anglo-
Leasing) have their origins in previous governments, so that the corruption at issue
here relates either (or both) to payments considered illegal, or efforts to subvert on-
Original Intended Use of the Grabbed Public Land:
by Those Aware of Any Such Land
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
9%
10%
28%
35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Unspecified
Cemetery
Sports grounds
Coffee factory
Playground
Residential Land
Slaughterhouse
Nature/Wildlife/Forest
Defense/Military/Police
Infrastructure (Railway Line)
Medical Facility
Agricultural
Communal
School/Educational Facility
71% of Those Aware Believe Such Recovery
Efforts Will Succeed
34% - Aware of Efforts to Recover the Land

5. Page 5 of 15
going investigations. Again, a high awareness is evident here, clearly based on
access to information through the media (Nairobi – 74% vs. North Eastern – 37%).
It is also clear from the total of the 29 scandals mentioned, that media coverage
plays a critical role in the respondents’ recall. Among those mentioned most often
(e.g., Chicken-Gate, the Karen land-grab, Anglo-Leasing, and the aborted Police
recruitment: 33%, 31%, 25%, and 23%, respectively), all have been highlighted in
the media fairly recently. This contrasts with others that received minimal mentions
of which little if anything has been heard for some time (e.g., the Malili Ranch land
scandal – 4%).
“Chicken-Gate”: Awareness and Outcome-Prospects
Turning to the ‘Chicken-Gate’ scandal in particular, only about one-in-ten Kenyans
(11%) can name more than one individual allegedly involved, though nearly one
quarter (23%) could name one, meaning one-third of all respondents are aware of
one or more of those involved. A modest contrast is also seen in terms of such
awareness-levels between supporters of CORD and Jubilee (42% vs. 33%), though
it is unclear whether this lower figure for the latter is a reflection of not having enough
information, or being less willing to acknowledge the scandal in the first place.
The same partisan difference is evident among all those aware of the scandal, in that
whereas nearly three-quarters overall (71%) believe those mentioned are guilty of
Awareness of Particular Corruption Scandals Under the Jubilee
Government (Multiple Response):
by Those Aware of Any Such Scandals (29 Mentions)
Base: n=1,114
6%
3%
4%
4%
5%
7%
7%
13%
17%
19%
23%
25%
31%
33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Other
Lang'ata Primnary School Land Grab
Malili Ranch
Fake Pastors
KCSE Exam Leakage
Ruto Jet Hire
Government Officials (Unspecified)
Standard Gauge Railway
Laptop Project
Coast Land Issues
Police Recruitment Scandal
Anglo-Leasing
Karen Land
Chicken-Gate (IIEC/IEBC/Examinations council)

6. Page 6 of 15
receiving the alleged bribes, rather fewer Jubilee supporters hold this belief than do
those of CORD (63% vs. 82%), though this contrast is reversed in terms of
expectations of convictions (26% vs. 38%), with Jubilee supporters having somewhat
more confidence that ‘justice will be done’ here.
Preferred Fate of Cabinet Secretaries
Given the President’s recent directive that various officials in his government “stand
aside” so as to investigate corruption allegations, respondents were asked which, if
any, Cabinet Secretaries they would like him to sack altogether. Leaving out the
one-quarter who claim that they don’t know who any of them are, somewhat fewer
than half (43%) would like to see at least one of them replaced. Among those who
do know one or more of the CSs, Lands, Housing and Urban Development Secretary
C. Ngilu received most mentions, followed by the Secretaries for Education and
Labour, in that order (26%, 16%, and 12%), though nearly half (42%) want all of
them to remain in their jobs – at least until current investigations are completed,
evidently supporting the adage of ‘innocent until proven guilty.”
Optimism Regarding the President’s Directive
Kenyans are evenly divided as to whether they think the President’s directive,
including his call that the EACC complete their investigations with 60 days, will have
any tangible effect, with half (50%) convinced it will, and the remainder split between
those are certain that it will not, and those who are not sure (29% and 12%,
respectively).
“Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President
should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Total
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
31%
26%
18%
4%
4%
5%
6%
7%
9%
12%
19%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
None
Don't Know Them
Others (8)
Davis Chirchir (Energy)
Rachelle Omamo (Defence)
Joseph Ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination of
National Gov't)
Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure)
Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries)
Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security, and
Services)
Jacob Kaimenyi (Education)
Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing, and Urban
Development)

7. Page 7 of 15
Again, a clear if modest, contrast is seen between Jubilee and CORD supporters,
with the former clearly optimistic than the latter on its impact (63% vs. 38%,
respectively).
“Do you think the President's recent directive on corruption will
actually reduce it?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political
Parties/Coalitions
50%
38%
63%
29%
41%
20%21% 22%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)
YES NO Not Sure

8. Page 8 of 15
Kenya’s Direction and Presidential Approval
Half of Kenyans think the Country is headed in the Wrong Direction
Opinions regarding Kenya’s direction were likewise clearly affected by the Garissa
attack. Whereas about half of Kenyans (49%) considered the country as moving in
the “wrong direction” prior to 2nd
April, after this date closer to two-thirds did so
(60%), the overall figure being just over half (52%).
For the entire survey sample, however, the contrast between supporters of Jubilee
and CORD is even greater, with more than three times as many of the former
considering the country to be moving in the “right direction” as the latter (41% vs.
13%). The same nearly applies to “wrong direction”, with more than twofold
supporters of CORD of his view than do supporters of Jubilee (74% vs. 35%).
Altogether, nearly twice as many Kenyans view the country’s direction as “wrong”
than “right” (52% vs. 29%). Undoubtedly, the Garissa attack had a significant impact
on this overall figure for this survey.
Presidential Approval Rating
Overall, the approval rating of the President’s performance “over the last three
months” is impressive indeed (74%), though again, the contrast between Jubilee and
“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or
the wrong direction?”: by Total, Before/After 2nd April
29%
32%
20%
52%
49%
60%
12% 13% 11%
7% 6%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452)
Right Direction Wrong Direction
Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction Not Sure
11% Increase

9. Page 9 of 15
CORD supporters is stark (91% by the former vs. just 53% — though still a majority
– by the latter).
Yet it is clear how much higher his approval rating would have been had the Garissa
attack not occurred. This is seen when in the major drop (10%) among those giving
him approval after April 2 as compared with those interviewed earlier (76% vs 66%).
Again, overall, this largely explains the fall in his approval rating from last November
(of 5%, from 78% to 73%).
“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s
performance over the last three months?”
(By Total, Before/After 2nd April)
73%
76%
66%
24%
21%
32%
2% 2% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452)
Approve Disapprove No Opinion
10% Decline

10. Page 10 of 15
Digital Migration Issues:
Half of the TV Viewing Population Not Watching at the Moment
About half (45 per cent) of households in Kenya have a television set in the
household while more than half, (55 per cent) do not. Of those who do not have a
Television, 38 per cent watch TV elsewhere. These could be in areas such as a
neighbour’s house, restaurant, a friend or relative’s house. This means that
altogether, about two-thirds of all Kenyans can be considered as “TV viewers.”
Within households with a television set, only half (49 per cent) have a set-top box
(the majority – or 54% - being urban dwellers), leaving the other half in ‘digital
darkness’ (aside from the few with a digital TV, or who are connected via a cable
provider).
54 per cent of urban households with a TV set have set-top box while 46 per cent do
not. In the rural areas, 43 per cent of households with a TV have set-top box while
57 per cent do not. Nearly all households (96 per cent) have one set-top box with 3
per cent stating that they have two and one per cent that they have three.
YES,
38% NO,
62%
TV Ownership and Access
YES,
45%
NO,
55%
“Is there a television set in
your household?”
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“Do you ever watch television
somewhere else?”
Base: Those saying that they do not have a TV
in the household (n=1,087)
61%
35%39%
65%
Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)
YES NO
44%
35%
56%
65%
Urban (n=286) Rural (n=801)
YES NO

11. Page 11 of 15
High Awareness of Self-Inflicted Switch-Off
A clear majority of Kenyans (70 per cent), are aware that ADN (Citizen TV, KTN,
NTV and Qtv) channels were off air mid-February (though in some areas, the switch-
off occurred later). Awareness by setting is highest in urban areas at 78 per cent
compared to 22 per cent who do not. In the rural areas, 66 per cent are aware while
34 per cent do not.
Asked to mention specific channels, Citizen TV was mentioned at 88 per cent, KTN
at 80 per cent, NTV at 75 per cent, and Qtv at 53 per cent. Some channels were
incorrectly mentioned at 12 per cent.
Majority of Viewers Revert to Old Viewership Behaviour
Amongst those with a set-top box, 81 per cent stated that with the ADN channels
now back on air, they have reverted to watching the same channels and programs
as they used to. One out of five (19%) have changed their behavior, and of these,
68% are watching less television and 32% enjoying a different mix of channels or
stations.
Awareness of Digital Migration Switch-Off
One or
more of
Kenya’s
local
channel
s were
off air,
70%
Nothing,
30%
“What change about
television broadcasting
did you notice or hear
about in February this
year?”
Base: All Respondents
(n=1,964)
88%
80%
75%
53%
12%
CITIZEN
KTN
NTV
Q-TV
Incorrect answer
“Which TV channels
were off-air?”
Base: Those aware of TV
stations that were switched-
off (n=1,381)
YES
55%
NO
45%
“Are you able to
view them?”
Base: Those who
mentioned any of the
4 stations that were
switched-off (n=1,265)
78%
66%
22%
34%
Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)
Switch-off Nothing

12. Page 12 of 15
Government blamed for the switch-off
Even though the ADN channels switched themselves off air in protest over the
manner in which digital migration was being handled, the government is majorly
blamed for this by citizens. Overall, 64% stated that the government was
responsible, specifically: the Jubilee government (40 per cent), Communications
Authority (14 per cent), Ministry of Information/Cabinet Secretary Matiangi (10 per
cent). Only 7 per cent mentioned the media houses themselves (7 per cent), the
Supreme Court (1 per cent) and Chinese companies with an interest in the digital
migration (1 per cent). 23 per cent of Kenyans stated they do not know who was
responsible for this.
YES, 81%
NO, 19%
“Now that all those channels are back on air,
have you gone back to watching the same
programs and stations as you used to?”
Base: Those with TV and Set-Top
Box in the Household (n=427)
68%
32%
Watching less TV
Watching a different
mix of
programs/channels/
stations
Change in Viewership Behaviour due to Switch-off
“What has changed in your
viewing?”
Base: Those have changed
viewership behaviour (n=80)

13. Page 13 of 15
By contrast, very few mention “the media houses themselves” (7%), and almost no
one points a finger at the Supreme Court or “Chinese companies” (only 1% each).
At the same, nearly a quarter of Kenyans (24%) are unable to identify who they think
was responsible for this.
In partisan political terms, somewhat more CORD supporters blame the government
(taking all its entities together) than do Jubilee supporters (74% vs. 59%). Given
these high figures across the political divide, however, it seems the government will
have to engage in some serious ‘fence-mending’ if it seeks to market the “digital
migration” as part of its campaign strategy in the next election.
In terms of motivation for the ‘digital darkness’, well over have cite either financial
gain, control of the media, or a combination of the two (58%), but nearly a quarter
(24%) are unable to identify any reason.
Media Houses Did Not Do Enough to Prepare for Digital Migration, But Should
Have Been Given More Time
At the same time, the media houses themselves do not fully escape such rebuke by
the public. Well over half (57%) feel that they did not adequately prepare for digital
“Who do you think is responsible for these channels going off?”:
(By Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off)
Base: Those aware of TV stations that were
switched-off (n=1,381)
Jubilee Govt, 40%
Communications
Authority (CA), 14%
Min.of
Information/C.S.
Matiangi, 10%
The Media Houses,
7%
The Supreme Court,
1%
Chinese
Companies, 1%
DK, 23%
Total mentions for
Government: 64%

14. Page 14 of 15
migration, even if, at the same time, many more (71%) would have preferred that
they were given more time to prepare to this broadcasting ‘revolution’.
Summary of Key Findings:
Corruption
 Kenyans support the Government’s anti-corruption drive, but have doubts
about its efficacy.
 At the local level, educational facilities are the most frequent public entity
targets of land-grabbing.
 More than half of all Kenyans want at least one cabinet secretary replaced.
 More than half of all Kenyans can mention at least one on-going corruption
scandal, with ‘Chicken-Gate’ receiving the most mentions.
Terrorism
 Security concerns increased dramatically following the Garissa attack,
while lowering support for the KDF’s continued presence in Somalia.
 Confidence in AMISOM’s capacity to defeat al-Shabaab also falls following
the attack.
 Most Kenyans support the refusal of teachers to return to the North
Eastern region, though residents of this region are evenly divided about
this.
Digital Migration
Perceptions of Media vs. Government Responsibility for the
Switch-Off: (By Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off)
31%
71%
57%
21%
12%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Do you think the media houses that were
switched-off did enough to prepare for the
digital migration? (n=1,381)
Do you think they should have been given
more time? (n=1,381)
YES NO Not sure

15. Page 15 of 15
 Digital migration leaves nearly half of TV viewers in the dark, though a
majority of them express an intention to purchase a set-top box, even if
most are unable to state just when they shall do this.
 Future TV viewing choices in terms of channels and programmes remain
unclear.
 While most Kenyans blame “the government” for the switching-off of their
favourite channels, many also feel the media houses failed to prepare
adequately for the digital migration.
Kenya’s Direction and Presidential Approval
 Kenyans are more negative about the country’s overall direction.
 The President’s general approval rating falls, mostly (it appears) because
of the Garissa attack.
Survey Methodology
The target population for this survey was Kenyans aged 18 years and above. The
sample size was 1,964 respondents living in urban and rural areas. The margin-of-
error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/-
2.2 with a 95% confidence level. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted
between 28th
March and 7th
April 2015. Data was collected through face to face
interviews using hand held devices (smart phones). Ipsos Limited (Kenya) funded
the survey with GroupM funding a section on digital migration.
For further details on this press release please contact:
Dr. Tom Wolf Victor Rateng
Research Analyst Opinion Polls Project Manager
tpwolf1944@gmail.com victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Tel: 386 2721-33 Tel: 386 2721-33
www.ipsos.co.ke www.ipsos.co.ke
Rehema Muniu
MediaCT Director
Rehema.muniu@ipsos.com
Tel: 386 2721-33
www.ipsos.co.ke