This document discusses the impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture and strategies to increase climate resilience. It finds that climate change is posing a major threat to Indian agriculture and food security, with increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent droughts and floods. The agriculture sector is highly vulnerable as over half of Indian agriculture depends on rainfall. The document outlines efforts under NICRA to establish climate resilient villages through diversified and integrated farming systems, drought and flood resistant crops, natural resource management, and other adaptation strategies. It finds that these villages have increased household nutrition, livelihoods, and ecological sustainability while reducing climate risks and progressing goals for sustainable development.

1. Climate Risks, Agriculture and
SDGs
Ch. Srinivasa Rao
ICAR-National Academy of Agriculture Research Management
Hyderabad

2. @ Year 2014 & 2015 planet hottest years; 2017: March Temp
@ Average temperature of planet was about 0.8oC higher than
that of 100 year ago. Atmospheric CO2 concentration > 400 ppm
@ Impacts of climate change are clearly visible across the globe,
more vulnerable are tropical country like India
@ 8 out of last 15 years were drought affected years; Recent
2014, 2015 and simultaneous occurrence of droughts and floods.
@ Episodes of heat wave and hailstorms are at increasing
frequency; Water crisis in Maharashtra for human and livestock
@ Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors in India, as
about 58 % Indian agriculture is rain dependent agriculture.
Climate Change and Indian Agriculture

3. Seasonal-Monsoon (June -
Sept)
Country As A
Whole
-12
North West India -21
Central Peninsula -19
South Peninsula -7
East & North East
India
-12
Country as a
whole
-14
North West India -17
Central Peninsula -16
South Peninsula -15
East & North East
India
-8
2014 2015
40-50 Days Delay 40-50 Days
Mid-Season Drought

4. Mid-Season/Inter Droughts
Rainfall distribution in NICRA village in Rangareddy dt
during 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Ranfall(mm)
Sowings
DROUGHT

5. IPCC-2007

6. Floods and CyclonesFlood affected regions
Cyclone affected regions
Regions of Drought
occurrence

7. District-level vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change
Present Mid-century (2021-2050) End of the century (2071-2098)
Most districts along the eastern and western coast, north-eastern states are less
vulnerable
By mid-century (2021-2050), districts in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh,
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar
exhibit very high and high vulnerability.
Towards end of the century (2071-2098), almost all districts in Rajasthan and many
districts in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka exhibit very high vulnerability.

8. Climate Change Impacts on
Agriculture Sector

9. India
Food
Security
1.3 Billion +
Indians
Declining Per
Capita Land
Availability
Marginal Lands
Socio-economic
structure
Markets & Price
Climate
Variability
Climate
Change
Hunger
Malnutrition
Poverty
* 270 million tons +
* Imports of food
legumes and edible
oils
@ Droughts
@ Cyclones/Floods
@ Heat wave
@ Hail storms
@ Frost
Productivity
vs
Food Security
India

10. Source of study Year Rice Wheat Total
cereals
Pulses Food
grains
Bansil (1996) 2020 - - - - 241.4
Kumar (1998) 2020 134.0 127.3 309.0 - -
Paroda and Kumar
(2000)
2020 111.9 79.9 229.0 23.8 252.8
Radhakrishna and
Reddy (2004)
2020 118.9 92.4 221.1 19.5 240.6
Mittal (2008) 2021 96.8 64.3 245.1 42.5 287.6
2026 102.1 65.9 277.2 57.7 334.9
Kumar et al (2009) 2021-22 113.3 89.5 233.6 19.5 253.2
Amarasinghe and
Singh (2009)
2025 109 91 273 18 291.0
2050 117 102 356 21 377.0
Singh (2013) 2020 106.7 85.7 220.0 23.2 243.2
Food demand projections of different studies for
India

11. Projected changes in crop yields (%) at maximum changes in
temperature and rainfall by 2035, 2065 and 2100
Crop 2035 2065 2100
Rainy season
Rice -7.1 -11.5 -15.4
Maize -1.2 -3.7 -4.2
Sorghum -3.3 -5.3 -7.1
Pigeonpea -10.1 -17.7 -23.3
Groundnut -5.6 -8.6 -11.8
Winter season
Wheat -8.3 -15.4 -22.0
Barley -2.5 -4.7 -6.8
Chickpea -10.0 -18.6 -26.2
Rapeseed-
mustard
0.3 0.7 0.5
Maximum changes in temperature and rainfall are 1.3°& 7% by 2035,
2.5°& 26% by 2065 and 3.5°& 27% by 2100, respectively (Source:
Adapted from Birthal et al., 2014)

12. Monsoon rainfall vs. deviation in food grain production
during kharif (rainy season)
-35
-28
-21
-14
-7
0
7
14
21
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Deviationinfoodgrainsproduction(Mt)
Deviationinrainfall(mm)
Monsoon rainfall deviation Kharif food grains production deviation
Agricultural production in India is closely linked to the
performance of summer monsoon (June to September) which
contributes about 75% of the annual precipitation

13. Thus, currently, climate change and its impacts:
Most important challenge for Indian agriculture,
poverty, food & nutrition, livelihood and
sustainability of small holder farmer
(SDG’s).
Climate
Risks
Poverty
Food &
Nutrition
Livelihoods
Quality
Sustainability
Ecosystems

14. Changefrommeanyields
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Improved
management +
Existing variety
Existing Management
+ Improved variety
BMP's (soil, water,
crop) with stress
tolerant variety
Impact

15. Actions for Climate Rick Reduction

16. 121 implementation sites by KVKs
7 Core Research Institutes
23 AICRPDA Centres
Climate Vulnerabilities addressed
Climate Resilient Villages in India

17. Local Ragi ML365
Technology
@ In-situ moisture
conservation
@ Land treatments
@ Farm ponds
@ Drought tolerant cultivar
@ Soil test based nutrients
Institutions
@ VCRMC
@ Seed bank
@ Custom hiring of farm
machines
@ Water groups
SDG Indicators
Adaptation/Mitigation
@ Adaptation to Droughts: Resilient
@ Household food and livelihoods:
Enhanced
@ Village carbon balance: +
@ GHGs reduced
Implementation of Technology Package

18. Conceptual outlay of CRVs
Adaptation to
Weather
Aberration &
Extreme Events
Better Crop
Management
Conserving
Natural
Resources
Livestock
Production
CLIMATE
RESILIENT
VILLAGE
Agro-
Advisories
Integrated
Farming
Systems
Household/ Village
Food Security/
Sustainable
Development
Climate
Change
Mitigation
Advances in Agronomy (2016)

19. Advances in Agronomy. (2015)
Integrated Farming Systems (IFS) models for household food,
livelihood and ecological sustainability
Other on
farm
livelihoods
Livelihood
security
Rainfed systems
IFS
High rainfall
systems
Compost /
vermi
compost
Farm
ponds
Field
crops
Horticulture
Livestock
Fish /
poultry /
duckery
Household
food security
Household
nutrition
society
Ecological
sustainability
SDGs
@ Income Stability
@House Hold
Nutrition
@ Income-Livelihoods
@ Sustainability
@ Large tribal
@ Eastern
@ NEH
@ Dryland
@ Coastal regions
@ NMSA
@ Adaptation Fund
@ State Action Plans
@ Dryland Missions

20. Community Participation
Village Climate Risk Management, Custom hiring
centres, Capacity building of stakeholders, Cross
learning visits
MGNREGA, RKVY, MNSA, Mechanization,
IWMP

21. Zero Tillage Minimized the Yield Loss due to Unseasonal
Intense Rains
Crop lodging in conventional tillage Crop in zero till sown wheat
33.7
48.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Conventioanl tillage Zero tillage
Yields (q/ha)
(Average of 10 farmers)
Wheat yields during 2015-16 at Ropar
•Zero till (ZT) sowing minimizes losses due to lodging of wheat.
•ZT Resulted in higher yields by 14 (q/ha) over conventional tillage.
•Improvement in returns – up to Rs.21,000/ ha
• Severe loss (120 lakh ha) in wheat yields because of lodging due to unseasonal
rains in 2014-25 only (16.9 m tons wheat)
•Adoption of ZT would have reduced the loss and increased the production 16.9 m
t in 2015( Rs.25,000 crores)
•If combination of heat tolerant wheat (where heat wave followed
by Unseasonal Rains) + Zero tillage = Impacts are many folds

22. Villages declared as no crop residue burning villages
• Paddy straw burning was stopped in NICRA villages and adjoining villages
in Punjab (about 41 villages).
• About 1.35 lakh tons of residues were avoided from burning from 22,600 ha
in these villages.
• Resulted in GHG emission reduction of about 2,04,600 t CO2–eq from these
villages
Burning of 1 t paddy residue results in
 Loss of 5.5 kg of Nitrogen
 Loss of 2.3 kg of Phosphorus
 Loss of about 7 kg K (!), besides S etc.
 GHG emissions of 1.5 t CO2–eq
Avoiding residue burning in Punjab results
in Savings of (from 2.85 m ha area)
 78,375 tons of Nitrogen
 32,775 tons of Phosphorus
 GHG emissions 12.37 mt CO2–eq
Besides improving soil organic carbon,
water holding capacity and soil health

23. -1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
Khuntil Magharvada Bhalot Bharu Sitara Purkhawas Chomakot
Csequestrationrate(tCO2-eqha-1yr-1)
Overallcarbonbalance(tCO2-eq)
Overall carbon balance (t CO2-eq)
C sequestration rate (t CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1)
Village
Overall C balance and C sequestration rate for the seven climate vulnerable villages from Gujarat
and Rajasthan states with the implementation of the NICRA project.
Note: Overall C balance = f (Annuals + perennials + irrigated rice + land use change + livestock +
inputs
Improved Village Level Carbon Balance

24. Srinivasarao et al. (2016)
Expansion strategy of climate resilient villages in India

25. @ Stability in crop production at farm, land scape and village level
@ Diversified systems contributed to human nutrition
@ Better crop-horticulture-fodder-livestock-fishery integration
@ House hold level production also contributed to enhanced human consumption
@ Sustainable soil, water, crop residue management contributed to ecosystem
services, carbon balance and reduction of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions
@ Agro advisories, market linkages contributed to climate risk reduction, cost of
cultivation and better price.
@ Village institutions contributed to social factors and required support delivery.
How SDGs are Progressed with Climate
Resilient Villages?
@ 151 village models replicated to about 5000 villages in Maharashtra (Droughts)
@ Odissa replications (Floods and Cyclones
@ AP-Million Farm Ponds
@ Telangana-Tank Renovation (Kakateeya Mission
@ Assam (One village to several districts)
@ PoCRA, Rainfed Missions
@ MP: Adaptation and GCF
@ Strong Policy and Implementable Strategies

26. NICRA/CRIDA/
AICRPDA
Research outputs
&
Agri.
Universities/KVKs
Updating of
contingency plans with
Universities/KVKs
NMSA
Implementation
of DCPs
District (with State
Government
authorities)
Taluq/Mandal
(AICRPDA/AICRPA
M network)
Villages (through
KVKs under
NICRA-TDC
623-District Agriculture Contingency Plans
@ Able to reach State Action Plans - NMSA
@ District-Mandal-Village Level Implementation
@ 2014: 9% Sowing area reduction offset
@ Large scale land treatments implemented
@ 2015: 12 State Interface Meetings
@ 2016: 11 State Interface Meetings

27. Status of District Agriculture Contingency Plans
13
29
14
31
9
33 34
51
33
21
12
22 22
13
75
38
27
24
30
19
26
14
6
11
8
4
1 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AndhraPradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
TamilNadu
Telangana
Gujarat
Maharashtra
MadhyaPradesh
Rajasthan
Haryana
HimachalPradesh
Jammu&Kashmir
Punjab
Uttarakhand
UttarPradesh
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Odisha
WestBengal
Assam
ArunachalPradesh
Manipur
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Sikkim
Tripura
Andaman&Nicobar
South West North East North East Island
Completedplans
(Total= 623)

28. Post Rainy Season (Rabi) Action Plan to Utilize Residual Moisture or
Off-Season Rainfall

29. Contingency Plans to SDGs
1) Water saving cultivars, crops, methods-Increased WUE,
reduced ground water utilization, larger area irrigated
(Food, poverty, nutrition)
2) Crop diversification to millet and food legumes from rice
regions
3) Large scale in-situ (land treatments) to conserve rain water
4) Large scale investments on Farm Ponds
5) Sustained vegetable and horticulture systems
6) Pulses (Food Legumes) area increased
7) Fodder, livestock components house hold income
8) Food production in MP, during 2014 drought=Stable (by
agro eco system based action plans)
9) Off-set the reduction of sowing area in 2014, 2015 droughts

30. Indicators to Assess Adaptation to
Climate Risks
1. Diversified cropping system
2. Diversified income sources / Reduced Income
variability
3. Enhanced sustainable yield index
4. Increased soil organic carbon
5. Increased tree biodiversity / perennial
biomass stocks
6. Increased water use efficiency
7. Reduced water stress Index
8. Reduced vulnerability; Socio-economic /
Livelihood / Food security