Presented by IFPRI Senior Research Fellow Claudia Ringler at the Foresight Workshop on "Policy Research on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Eastern Gangetic Plain", Sep 7, 2016, Delhi.

1. Key challenges across Food, Energy
and Water Systems in South Asia and
IMPACT
Claudia Ringler, IFPRI and FE2W
Foresight Workshop on
Policy Research on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in
the Eastern Gangetic Plain
Sep 7, 2016, Delhi

2. Key triggers, risks and consequences along
the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

3. 3
GROWING FOOD-ENERGY-WATER
CHALLENGES IN THE REGION
1. Continued food insecurity and undernutrition for a large share of
the population (15% India; 16% Bangladesh and 8% Nepal),
additional pressures from climate change
2. Agricultural systems performing below potential – hampered by
water and energy challenges, an overly focus on subsidies, lack of
diversification, and underinvestment in agricultural R&D
3. Already severe water stress in India – and growing stress in
Bangladesh and Nepal
4. Challenges to switch to more renewable energy systems to support
the SDGs and the Paris Climate Agreement (fertilizer subsidies..
electricity subsidies.. solar subsidies.. but not all is bleak)

4. 1. FOOD PRICES INCREASE WITHOUT
CLIMATE CHANGE; EVEN HIGHER
WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
(Indexed to 1 in 2010)
Cereals
2010 = 1 2010 = 1
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: IMPACT simulations.

5. Source: IFPRI IMPACT 3.2 Projections.
1. IMPROVED PROGRESS ON HUNGER,
BUT TOO SLOW--CLIMATE CHANGE
INCREASES HUNGER
Undernourished people (millions)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Developing countries South Asia Africa south of the Sahara
2010 2050-NoCC 2050-RCP 8.5

6. 2. SPENDING ON AGRICULTURAL R&D
(SHARE OF AG GDP)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Pakistan
China
Malaysia
most recent year 2010 2000
Sources: IFPRI ASTI data; MARDI and the Malaysian Science and Technology Indicators Report; Chinese
Statistical yearbook of Science and Technology

7. 59%
74%
0.9
US$0.7
TRILLION
Source: based on Ringler et al. (2016).
BILLION
PEOPLE
TODAY
Population subject to severe
water stress in South Asia
GDP generated in water scarce
conditions in South Asia
61%
77%
US$8.8
TRILLION
Population subject to severe water
stress in South Asia
1.6 BILLION
PEOPLE
73%
1112%
By 2050
GDP generated in water-scarce South Asia
Population
Regional GDP
3. WATER STRESS IN SOUTH ASIA IS
ALREADY LARGE AND INCREASINGLY
AFFECTING THE OVERALL ECONOMY

8. 3. WATER USE IS UNSUSTAINABLE
(METRIC TONS PER 5 MIN. CELL, 2005)
Source: Villholdt et al. under Review
7% of global
cereal
production
irrigated with
depleting
groundwater,
mostly in Asia

9. 3. FOOD-ENERGY-WATER CHALLENGES
CONTRIBUTE TO WATER POLLUTION (EX N)
Source: IFPRI-Veolia 2015.

10. 3. INCREASE IN POPULATION IN BASINS
WITH HIGH N POLLUTION
Source: IFPRI-Veolia 2015.

11. 4. SOURCES OF ENERGY GENERATION
IN ASIA ARE CHANGING
BP 2016 Energy Outlook
(2.0) - 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Hydroelectricity
Biofuels
Nuclear
Wind/Solar/Oth. Ren.
Projected growth in production by source (%/yr)

12. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2014 2020 2025 2030 2035
Biofuels Nuclear Hydro Renewables
Coal Natural Gas Oil
4. BUT COAL, OIL, AND NATURAL GAS WILL
STILL DOMINATE ASIAN ENERGY SOURCES
BP 2016 Energy Outlook
Energy production in millions of tons of oil equivalent, Asia

13. 4. ENERGY-INTENSIVE IRRIGATION CAN
CONSERVE IRRIGATION WATER AND
INCREASE YIELDS – A SOLUTION?
13
Source: De Pascale et al. (2011) adapted from Leskovar et al., 2001)

14. 4. NUE, ISFM AND NO-TILL – SOLUTIONS FOR
MAIZE IN SOUTH ASIA? (DSSAT)
14
N Use Efficiency Int. Soil Fertility Mgt. (FM) No-Till (NT)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Yield Impact
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Yield Impact
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Yield Impact
MI
Caribbean
Central Africa
Central America
Central Asia
East Africa
East Asia
Eastern Europe
North Africa
North America
Oceania
South America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
Southern Africa
Southern Europe
West Africa
West Asia
Western Europe
12%
16%
44%
17%
24%
52%
22%
18%
40%
12%
29%
5%
8%
8%
0%
4%
6%
6%
26%
15%
21%
16%
20%
13%
28%
11%
9%
0%
8%
2%
1%
2%
4%
4%
2%
0%
27%
36%
58%
16%
33%
34%
42%
69%
21%
35%
30%
57%
16%
27%
47%
19%
0%
6%
Rosegrant, et al. 2014

15. 4. NUE AND NO-TILL – SOLUTIONS ACROSS
THE NEXUS? (DSSAT)
15
(Compared to the business-as-usual)
29% less nitrogen losses
 28% more N productivity
Rosegrant, et al. 2014

16. 4. IMPACT OF INVESTMENT IN WATER-
CONSERVING TECHNOLOGIES
Source: Palanisami et al. (2015)
Significant, but overall only 12% of investment successful

17. SCENARIOS FOR EASTERN GANGETIC PLAIN
COUNTRIES

18. 18
Climate
Models
IMPACT Global
Multi-market Model
IMPACT Water
Models
Crop Models
(DSSAT)
Water
demand
trends
Outputs :
Commodity
Prices
Trade
ConsumptionProduction
Harvested
Area
Yields
Macroeconomic
Trends
IMPACT MODEL SCHEMATIC

19. IMPACT Model - OVERVIEW
• Disaggregated by agricultural commodities (62 commodities)
and locations of production (159 countries, and 320 food
production units)
• Production is driven by both economic and environmental
factors
• Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income, and
population; feed demand is a function of livestock production,
feed prices, and feeding efficiency
• World food prices are determined annually at levels that clear
international commodity markets
• Output indicators – calorie availability, malnutrition measures,
share at risk of hunger, water consumption, yield growth and
total production, area
19

20. Alternative Scenarios for the Eastern
Gangetic Plains
20
NOCC
CC
(HADGE
M/IPSL)
CC HiR&D
CC
MedR&D
CC IRRIG
CC
IRRIG_EF
F_STR
Yield growth
+0.18%/yr
(rice)
+0.09%/yr
(rice)
Irrig Area 40% 40%
Irrig Eff 20%
Storage 20%
• Assess impact of CC on Water/Food outcomes
• And impacts of 3 alternative interventions that affect the triggers and
consequences along the FEW nexus:
o Increased investments in agricultural R&D
o Increased investments in irrigated area expansion
o Increased investments in irrigated area expansion, efficiency and storage
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Aug 2016

21. Changes in average cereal prices 2050
(US$/mt)
21
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Yellow color: HADGEM GCM, SSP2 + RCP8.5
Red color: IPSL GCM, SSP2 + RCP8.5 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Aug 2016

22. Changes in average prices for pulses
2050(US$/mt), compared to 2050CC
(HADGEM)
22
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
NOCC CC HiR&D CC
IRRIG_EFF_STR
CC IRRIG CC MedR&D
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Aug 2016

23. Changes in net trade position for rice and
wheat (Bangladesh, India, Nepal) (mmt),
(HADGEM)
23
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Rice Wheat
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Aug 2016

24. Share of unmet water demands
24
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
CC IRRIG_EFF_STR
CC HiR&D
CC MedR&D
NO CC
CC HADGEM
CC IRRIG
Nepal India Bangladesh
Share of withdrawals across all sectors that are not met due to lack of water availability, investment or access (1 minus
the ratio of total water supply to total water demand across the agriculture, livestock, industrial, and domestic sectors)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Aug 2016

25. CONCLUSIONS

26. Conclusions
• Joint water-energy-food planning in the region can reduce adverse
impacts from growing stresses in the individual sectors from
climate change, growing populations, etc.
• There is a large need to save water resources decoupled from
energy needs (f. ex. In agriculture – breeding efforts that conserve
water and energy, i.e. DT/HT; for water pollution – nitrogen
efficiency and combined green and grey infrastructure)
• The SDGs require closer interactions across the FEW to ensure that
improving targets in one SDG do not reduce likelihood of achieving
other targets and goals
• The Eastern Gangetic Plains have a great potential for FEW analysis
as water stress is as of yet much less severe compared to the rest
of India or Pakistan; and there is scope for un/ less subsidized
energy supplies and for more diversified agricultural production