The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Nepal Agricultural Economics Society (NAES) are jointly organizing Annual Conference of Nepal Agricultural Economics Society on February 13-14, 2015 at Conference Hall, Trade Tower, Thapathali, Kathmandu, Nepal. During the annual conference of NAES, a special session on “Convergences of Policies and Programs relating to Sustainable and Climate Resilient Agriculture” is being organized. The aim of this special session is to showcase the studies and experiences in South Asian countries on climate resilient agriculture and how they can learn from each other to formulate progressive and sustainable policies to promote climate smart agriculture in a regional perspective.

1. Agriculture Development and Climate Change
: A First Order Assessment of Indian Policies

2.  Agriculture and GHGs emissions
 Broad and Core National Policies in Agriculture & Allied
Sectors
 Growth in irrigated area and fertilizer use and food production
and productivity
 Climate Smart Agriculture
 Criteria for evaluation of effectiveness of development
policies in meeting climate change challenges
 Results of policies ‘assessment in terms combating climate
change impacts
 Inferences and way ahead
This Presentation covers

3. Contribution of Agriculture to India’s GHG
Emission Budget
Total Emission from agriculture, MtCO2e =334.4
Emissions from enteric fermentation = 50%
Emissions from paddy fields = 21%
Emissions from agricultural soils = 16.5%
Emissions from crop residue = 1.9%
Emissions from manure management = 1.4%
Concern : Agriculture in India contributes 19 % of the country’s total
GHG emissions as compared to global average of 13.5 %

4. Concept of Climate Smart Agriculture (Source: Aggarwal
2010)
Climate
Smart
Nitrogen
smart
Water
smart
Energy
smart
Carbon
smart
Weather
smart
Knowledge
smart
Policy smart
 Climate smart interventions (FAO)
 Adapting/mitigating climate change
 Ensure reducing the risk arising due to
climate change
 Augmenting farm income.
 Triple wins (World Bank)
 Higher yields, more carbon
sequestration, and greater resilience
to heat and drought
 Feasible interventions
 Resource endowments
 Capacity indicators
Implementation of climate agriculture requires its mainstreaming in
development policies

5. Broad National Policy Initiatives for Climate
Change and Sustainable Agriculture in India
 National Action Plan for Climate Change
 National Environment Policy
 National Agricultural Policy
 National Water Policy
 National Disaster management Policy
 National Forest Policy
 National Livestock Policy

6. Core Agriculture Policies in India
 Improved seeds, fertilizer, irrigation expansion, watershed
development, provision of insurance and weather forecast
 High subsidy regime
 Groundwater development is largely private
 Electricity for pumping is highly subsidized
 Crop and livestock insurance and micro financing to reduce
vulnerability

7. National Agriculture Development Policy Orientation
Till very recently, policies aimed at agriculture intensification
through scaling-out ‘Green revolution technologies’ (GRTs),
such as irrigation expansion , introduction of micro-irrigation
,and increased application of chemical fertilizers etc with
relevant advisories , were pursued.
Whether these developments(the first incidental step towards
climate smart agriculture) exacerbated or minimized GHGs
emissions is the issue?

8. Area under irrigation (Mha) and fertilizer
use (kg/ha) in India

9. Changes in Production and Productivity due to Policies and
Technologies
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990 2000 2010
127 123 122151
191
212
0
42
56
Food grain area, m ha  Food grain production
 151 mt in 1990 to 212
mt in 2010
 Food grain yields
1.19 t/ha in 1990 to 1.74
t/ha in 2010
Deforestation avoided by year : 2000= 42 m ha ;2010=56 m ha

10. Test for assessing the policy success in meeting
climate change impacts
Whether these developments(the incidental steps towards
climate smart agriculture) exacerbated or minimized GHGs
emissions is the issue?
To test the hypothesis that productivity increase leads to
climate change adaptation, the following criteria were chosen
 Reduction in emission intensification/ mitigation with and without
consideration of benefits of avoidance of deforestation (Mitigation
Index)
 Adaptation -in terms of increased per capita food grain availability
(Adaptation Index)
 Sustainability-of water and land ( Sustainability Index)

11. 181 193
430
237 249
Em1990 Em2010(TP) Em2010(WTP) EmD2010 (TP) EMNFC 2010
Emission from cropland with and without
incremental technology adoption after 1990
(mtCO2e)
Implementation of technology policies(TP) reduced emission(Em)
by 237 mtCO2 e
Food grain
carbon foot
prints,( ton
CO2e per
ton FG)
1990=1.196
2010=0.907
The foot
prints can
be further
lowered by
50 %
through
CSA

12. Intensification (IFI) and Mitigation (MI) indices for GRTs
Technology Em2010
AFC
Em2010
NAFC
Intensification Index
(IFI) (%)
Mitigation Index
(MI) (%)
Mitigation Intensificati
on
IIFAFC IIFNAFC MIAFC MINAFC
All GRTs (-)107.4* (+) 141.80 5.22 46.10 94.78 53.90
Fertilizer (-) 12.26 (+) 35.22
Irrigation
(SW+GW)**
(-) 87.32 (+) 7.78
Irrigation (GW) (-) 41.20 (+) 15.72
Micro-irrigation
*(+) = Increase in
emissions/intensification;
(-) = Decrease in emissions/mitigation
**SW=Surface water;
GW=Groundwater
Intensification Index (IFIAFC)2010=
(Em2010TP– EmTP1990)/ EM2010WTP

13. Virtual Mitigation
For all the scaled out technologies, the intensification index(IIF) with
and without consideration of avoided forest conversion benefits
(AFC), is below 10 per cent and 50 per cent respectively;
indicating that the potential intensification with technology
policy was reduced to the extent of 90 per cent to 50 per cent.
This reduction in intensification is referred to as virtual mitigation.
The virtual mitigation potential of micro-irrigation was found to be
significantly high; a fact that future research and policies in this
realm could potentially exploit.

14. Estimated values of food grain availability (kg/ha/year)
and Adaptation indices (AI) for different GRTs
Technology Increase in food
availability)
(kg/cap/year)
Adaptation
Index (AI) (%)
Remarks
All GRTs 72.00 26.10 Food grain availability for population
of 846.3 million in 1990 was 202.8
kg/capita/year.
AI = (FGA2010 – FGA1990)
------------------
FGA1990
*Values within brackets represent
increase in food availability at 40 Mha
of micro-irrigation.
Fertilizer 14.37 5.28
Irrigation(SW+G
W)
28.74 10.56
Ground
water(GW)
17.24 6.34

15. Item Level of development (BCM)
2000 2010 2050
Surface water 360 (690)* 404 647
Groundwater 210 (396)* 260 396
Degree of stress
DDS 0.522 (High) 0.586 (High) 0.938
(Extremely high)
GWAR 0.530 (Normal) 0.657 (High) >1.00
(Extremely high)
*Values in parenthesis are the exploitable water potentials
Water resources potential ,development, and degree
of stress (2000-2050)

16. Fluctuations in NPK consumption ratio in India
Years N:P2O5:K2O Fertilizer use imbalance
index
(FLiBI)
1961-65 8.2:2.2:1 -
1971-75 5.5:1.8:1 -
1981-85 6.3:2:1 -
1991-95 7.6:.7:1 -
2001-05 8.3:2.8:1 0.90-0.96
2006-10 7:2.6:1 0.04-0.05

17. Inferences
Though not specifically targeted, but modernization of agriculture through
subsidies had a significant effect on total GHG emissions.
The good performance of development policies in irrigation and fertilizer
sector has :
-reduced climate change induced intensification. This may be called
adaptation led mitigation or virtual mitigation
( Range 50-90 %)
- with incremental adoption of irrigation and fertilizer technologies,
Adaptation Index (AI) increased from 0.19 to 0.26. A 27% Increase.
- But- performance in respect of sustainability of natural resources (water
and soil) is poor(DD> 0.90 ; GWAR>0. 95; NPK:: 7:2.6:1) .
- This is a matter of grave concern

18. Turning Down the Heat from Agriculture: What
Next?
In agriculture, adaptation would continue to be main mechanism for
meeting climate change challenge. But in place of incidental gain in
GHGs reduction, it will have to be more policy driven though
promotion of climate smart technologies for there is enough scope
Major required policy shifts:
 Water and energy pricing for agriculture leading to increased
mechanization of agriculture with efficient technology
 Policy on development and use of G M crops to cope with stress and
reduce energy foot prints
 Policies for propagation of the concept of bio-industrial watersheds
to take care of the population moving-out of inefficient agriculture

19. Thanks for your attention