Presentation by Claudia Ringler, Hartwig Kremer and Cheikh Mbow at the UNEA Science Policy Interface, May 19-20 Presentation focuses on the concept of the water, food and energy nexus and its importance within the development context. It also provides a number of cases highlighting nexus issues.

1. The Food-Energy-Water Nexus
Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?
Claudia Ringler, Hartwig Kremer and Cheikh Mbow
UNEA Science Policy Interface, May 19-20

2. Trends underlying the nexus &
interlinkages

3. Growing demand for more water intensive calories (meats/fruits
and vegetables) surpasses demand for R&T and cereals (SSP2, NoCC)2010=1.0
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

4. Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm)
Climate change impacts affect yields adversely -> increased
water and energy resources by 2050 compared to NoCC
The case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and IMPACT (SSP2)
Change in rainfed maize yields before economic adjustments
Change in rainfed maize yields
after economic adjustments
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

5. Positive signs: Decoupling of energy from emissions growth
BP 2016 Energy Outlook
GDP growth Emissions
growth

6. Energy production by source: Seems like Business
as Usual, but..
in millions of tons of oil equivalent
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity Biofuels Wind/Sol./Oth. Ren.
BP 2016 Energy Outlook

7. Projected annual growth over 2014-35
suggests significant changes
BP 2016 Energy Outlook0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydroelectricity
Nuclear
Biofuels
Wind/Solar/Oth. Ren.
Growth per year

8. 8
Water-scarce regions account for 36% of global population (2.5 Bn), 9.4
trillion USD (22%) of global GDP, and 39% of global grain production
How many people live in
water short areas?
How much GDP is generated in
water scarce regions?
> 50
< 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
No data
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
2010
36
18
46
> 40%
0 - 20%
19
22
2010
20 - 40%
59
2010
2.5 Bn
people
9.4 trillion
USD2
1 >40% water stress
2 Year 2000 prices
Source: IFPRI 2011

9. 9
Under BAU, 52% of population, 45% of GDP and 49% of cereals
will be produced in regions at risk due to water stress by 2050
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
2050
52
16
32
2010
36
18
46
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
2050
45
25
30
2010
22
19
59
Business as usual (BAU) water productivity, medium
growth, 2050
1 >40% water stress
2 Year 2000 prices
How many people live in
water short areas?
How much GDP is generated in
water scarce regions?
▪ 4.7 Bn
people,
70% of
2010 pop.
▪ Increase
by 90%
compared
to 2010
▪ 63 trillion
USD2
1.5 x 2010
total GDP
▪ Increase
by 570%
compared
to 2010
> 50
30 - 40
40 - 50< 20
20 - 30
No data
Source: IFPRI 2011

10. 10
Cheap individual pumping technology & energy access have led to widespread
groundwater depletion (Map of groundwater depletion supporting cereals, 2005)
Source: Villholdt et al. Under Review
7% of total cereal
production
irrigated with
depleting
groundwater

11. 11
Seed bed
preparation
4%
Sowing
17%
Irrigation
48%
Fertilizers
23%
Pesticides
5%
Harvesting
3%
Sowing
38%
Irrigation
35%
Pesticides
17%
Harvesting
10%
CHART TITLE
Total: 7787 kwh/ha
Source: S. Khan et al. 2009
Total: 2135 kwh/ha
Rice – Pump Irrigation, Australia Barley – Pump Irrigation, Australia
Energy inputs generally largest for pumped irrigated systems,
but wide variations..

12. Entry points for a science-policy interface

13. The Nexus has the Attention of Government
“Pakistan Vision 2025 recognizes that sufficient, reliable, clean and cost-effective
availability of energy, water and food – for now and the future –is indispensable in
ensuring sustainable economic growth and development. These key sectors have
suffered historically from severe failings of integrated policy and execution” (Planning
Commission, 2014, p. 59, emphasis added)
The Government of the UK recently released a call for tender of a water-energy-food
mapping exercise for India as part of its UK-India science
and innovation collaboration.

14. ..of the Private Sector, NGOs and Industry Associations
Source: WEF 2016.

15. The SDGs can only be achieved if the Nexus is considered

16. But there are complexities (Example: entry point SDG2)
End Hunger
Food Security & Nutrition
Sustainable Agriculture
SDG2
SDG6:
Water and Sanitation
SDG7:
Access to sust. energy
SDG13:
Climate Change
SDG15:
Sustainable use of Ecosystems
SDG14:
Sustainable use of Oceans
SDG3:
Healthy Lives
SDG1:
End poverty
SDG4:
Education
SDG5:
Gender equality
SDG10:
Reduce Inequality
SDG12:
Sust Prod and Consumption
Blue 1-way arrows generally support SDG2
Red 2-way arrows might hinder full achievement of SDG2

17. Entry points for policymakers
1. Getting the policy framework right
 Secure rights to land and water to support responsible use of
natural resources
 Phase out subsidies for water, energy and agriculture
 Create a macroeconomic enabling framework
 Ensure basic infrastructure
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

18. Entry points for policymakers
2. Put nexus strategies in place
 National food and nutrition security strategies that take account of
water, energy, land resource use and environmental impacts
 Agricultural strategies that focus R&D investments on yield
improvements that use less water and energy resources
 National energy security strategies that assess water and climatic
futures as part of energy security strategies
 Monitor and evaluate strategies in all three sectors for
environmental impacts and resource conservation
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

19. Entry points for policymakers
3. Address the drivers of the growing resource scarcity
 Lower inequality, more sustainable lifestyles
 Address climate change
 Value natural resources and the environment
 Address demographic changes
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

20. Entry points for scientists
1. Describe complexity and transform into policy-relevant results
2. Assess costs of in-action across the Nexus
3. Assess feedbacks and solutions; including beyond Food, Energy
and Water: Environment, Climate, Land and more
4. Identify relevant indicators that can be monitored to show gains
from integrated assessments
5. Obvious areas of analysis: Closing the nutrient cycle/
wastewater reuse; Climate change and the nexus; impact of
renewables on the nexus; Water pollution management;
Groundwater management; Postharvest food losses;
Agricultural technologies; Green & grey infrastructure; Basin
water resource assessments; Governance mechanism for the
nexus; nanotechnologies; and more.

21. Entry points for scientists: Agricultural
technologies
• Breeding: Drought/Heat/and other abiotic, but also biotic stress
tolerance; C4 rice
• Increased Nutrient Use Efficiency through plant breeding or slow-release
fertilizers
• Precision Agriculture (continued potential to reduce water and energy
use, even in already highly mechanized monocultures of industrialized
countries)
• Integrated Soil Fertility management in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa
• Alternative Wetting and Drying for irrigated rice in parts of Asia
• Advanced irrigation technologies and enhanced irrigation governance

22. Why do we need to act now? Ex 1: India’s
Sunshine Crop
• India’s Government has been
providing subsidies to solar pumps
threatening the country’s already
fragile groundwater resources
• CGIAR WLE and CCAFS are assessing
options for farmers to sell electricity
back to overwhelmed energy utilities
rather than pumping groundwater for
low-value crops (SPaRC: Solar Power as
a Remunerative Crop).

23. Why do we need to act now? Ex 2: Watershed management
at the nexus urgent to meet urban water needs, while
maintaining food and energy security
• Africa’s first water fund in Kenya (the
Nairobi Water Fund) aims to provide
a sustained water supply to more
than nine million people and
generate US$21.5 m in long-term
benefits to Kenyan citizens, cutting
costs for hydropower and clean
water, while addressing water flow
and soil erosion issues in the Upper
Tana River basin. Consortium of
private sectors/NGOs and research
organizations, including CGIAR WLE

24. Why do we need to act now? Ex 3: Addressing water
pollution requires nexus solutions
• Water pollution loadings are high
and increasing at alarming rates,
particularly in Asia, but also Africa
• Impacts on health and the
environment are tremendous
• Solutions span the breadth of the
nexus: Nitrogen use efficiency in
fertilizer; green infrastructure for
water treatment; closing the
nutrient cycle and many more
2050 CSIRO-medium 2050 MIROC-medium
BOD
1 in 5 people or 1,589
million
1 in 6 people or 1,372
million
N
1 in 3 people or 2,645
million
1 in 4 people or 2,311
million
P
1 in 3 people or 2,948
million
1 in 3 people or 2,522
million
Nitrogen loadings-base period
Population at high pollution risk from BOD, N and P

25. Conclusions
• Large potential of nexus lens—and significant demand for nexus analyses by
policymakers
• Despite this, few scientific analyses are policy ready / relevant
• Lack of standardization of scientific analyses and indicators together with
locale-specific conditions have created barriers
• Need to be inclusive: Climate, land and environment are key in the nexus
• Considerable governance challenges when bringing people to the table across
sectors / and hierarchies
• The water sector is most engaged, while agriculture and energy are often
absent
• The final proof will be the application of the nexus concept in the SDG
implementation process