An indicator framework for the assessment of the indirect disaster vulnerability of industrial production systems

An indicator framework to assess the indirect disaster vulnerability of industrial production systems IDRC 2010 30 May to 3 June 2010, Davos Mirjam Merz , Michael Hiete and Frank Schultmann

Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Impacts of natural disasters on production systems Natural hazard Physical damage to buildings and equipment Disruption of critical infrastructures Primary business interruptions Obstruction of workers Supply chain disruptions Secondary business interruptions Directly affected company Company within a supply chain primary secondary z. B. NATECH direct impacts Indirect impacts

Industrial risk management and vulnerability analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Risk = Hazard X Industrial Vulnerability

Systems of vulnerability indicators for decision making ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Development of a theoretical framework/Identification of indicators Development of an indicator system: Assignment of indicator values Normalization/Weighting/Aggregation Visualization of results/ sensitivity analysis

Identification of vulnerability indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Variables , influencing these dependencies can can be used as vulnerability indicators Supply Distribution Transformation process Transportation Transportation ,[object Object],Vulnerability dimensions: Input production factors equipment/machinery manpower raw material operating materials information systems Output products services residue emissions

Hierarchical vulnerability framework

Results – sector specific vulnerability index

Results – infrastructure dependency

Regionalization of sector specific results Regional industrial vulnerability = industrial vulnerability x exposure Sector Specific Vulnerability Index SSVI Sector Specific Gross Value of Production GVP

Results – regional industrial vulnerability Gross value of production (GVP) – Industry Industrial vulnerability against indirect disaster effects Federal State of Baden-Württemberg Level of administrative districts Federal State of Baden-Württemberg Level of administrative districts

Conclusion and Outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Thank you for your attention! Mirjam Merz Institute for Industrial Production (IIP) Karlruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) E-mail: mirjam.merz@kit.edu

Vulnerability dimension „ Supply chain dependency ” Rationale: If the supply side interdependence of an industrial sector is high, interruptions within upstream lying sectors have an higher impact on the sector considered Operationalization: Normalized Backward Multiplier: Fragility indicator: „Degree of supply side interdependence“ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Example: sector specific supply dependency Rationale: If the in-house production is high, less goods must be purchased from suppliers Operationalization: in-house production input [manufacturing costs]/overall input [manufacturing costs] Problem: Neglect of the criticality of the supplied parts Resilience indicator: „Degree of in-house production“

Indicator Framework for indirect industrial vulnerability assessment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Overall framework: Total Risk Index TRI Indirect Risk Index IDRI Direct Risk Index DRI Social Risk Index SRI Industrial Risk Index IRI Sector Specific Industrial Risk Index SIRI Regional Sector Allocation

An indicator framework for the assessment of the indirect disaster vulnerability of industrial production systems

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An indicator framework for the assessment of the indirect disaster vulnerability of industrial production systems