It is well known that decisions at early stages of a construction project have great impact on subsequent project performance. Conceptual cost estimate is a challenging task that is done with limited information at the early stages of a project life where many factors affecting the project costs are still unknown. The objective of this paper is to support decision makers in predicting the conceptual cost of highway construction projects in Libya. Initially, the factors that significantly influence highway construction are identified. Then, an artificial neural network model is developed for predicting the cost. The network is trained and tested with a total of 67 projects historical data. Training of the model is administered via back-propagation algorithm. The model is coded ad implemented using MATLAB® to facilitate its use. An optimization module is also added to the Neural Network model with the objective of minimizing the error of the predicted cost. The model is then validated and the results show better predictions of conceptual cost of highway projects in Libya.
Diagnose the causes of cost deviation in highway constructionFaiq M. S. Al-Zwainy
The aim of this study is identifying and diagnosing the causes of construction project failure by using different project management process groups. These groups were initiation process group, planning process group, design process group, contract process group, executing and monitoring process group, and close process group. Also, the relative importance of the causes of construction project failure was investigated. Three techniques were used in this study: Ishikawa diagrams, Pareto diagrams, and 5-why techniques. The results were generally identified and diagnosed thirty-five causes of the construction project failure; however, only twenty-three of the causes were the most important. The majority of causes (thirteen causes) were obtained by using executing and monitoring project management process group. Seven causes were obtained by using contract project management process group. In addition, fewer causes (only three causes) were obtained by using initiation project management process group.
ER Publication,
IJETR, IJMCTR,
Journals,
International Journals,
High Impact Journals,
Monthly Journal,
Good quality Journals,
Research,
Research Papers,
Research Article,
Free Journals, Open access Journals,
erpublication.org,
Engineering Journal,
Science Journals,
Modeling Delay Percentage of Construction Projects in Egypt Using Statistical...IOSR Journals
The document presents two models for predicting delay percentage in construction projects in Egypt. The first model uses regression analysis of 14 significant causes of delay identified from a literature review and questionnaire survey. These causes are used as independent variables to predict delay percentage (dependent variable) for 20 construction projects. The second model uses a statistical fuzzy approach combining fuzzy logic and regression analysis. It develops membership functions to represent delay percentages and fuzzy rules to determine expected delay. Both models are validated on a second set of 8 projects, with the regression model found to have a lower average percentage error of 30.3% compared to 38.5% for the statistical fuzzy model.
IJRET : International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology is an international peer reviewed, online journal published by eSAT Publishing House for the enhancement of research in various disciplines of Engineering and Technology. The aim and scope of the journal is to provide an academic medium and an important reference for the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level learning, teaching and research in the fields of Engineering and Technology. We bring together Scientists, Academician, Field Engineers, Scholars and Students of related fields of Engineering and Technology
Feasibility study of_metro_transport_case_study_maduraiDurga Rai
This document presents a feasibility study for a proposed metro rail network in Madurai, India. It begins with an introduction to feasibility studies and their importance in project development. It then proposes a methodology for conducting feasibility studies for rail projects that considers social, environmental, and economic factors.
The document applies this methodology to evaluate the feasibility of a metro system in Madurai. It analyzes the city's traffic scenario, identifies potential station locations, and forecasts population growth and demand. It also discusses technical considerations and evaluates costs, benefits, financial viability, and social and environmental impacts. Traffic surveys were conducted at key intersections to analyze existing conditions. The study aims to determine if a metro rail system would be a viable and beneficial transportation
Integrative Model for Quantitative Evaluation of Selection Telecommunication ...TELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
This paper analyzes the weight of impact factors on selection the antenna places for mobile
telecommunication system in Jordan. The new technique plays a lead role in divided area and selects the
place of antennas' sites. The main objective of this research is to minimize the antenna numbers in order
to reduce the cost. Research follows flowcharting categories and stages as: The first stage aim to classify
the effective factors on the: signal radius, better position of antenna from candidate points, reserved area,
and non-preferring position. The second stage focuses on finding the effective weight of these factors on
the decision. The third stage suggest the new proposed approach by implement the MCLP and P-center
problems in linear function. The last stage has the pseudo code for the proposed approach, where the
proposed approach provides the solution that helps the planners in telecommunication industry and in
related government agencies make informed position of the antennas.
IRJET- Redevelopment of Structure with the Help of Building Information M...IRJET Journal
This document discusses redeveloping the Aurangabad bus depot structure using Building Information Modeling (BIM) and rectifying the results with fuzzy logic. BIM was used to develop a 3D, 4D, and 5D model of the bus depot for visualization, coordination, cost estimation, and scheduling. Fuzzy logic was then applied to verify the BIM results. A case study of redeveloping a 3-story apartment building found that using BIM and fuzzy logic estimated the total project cost would increase by 5% compared to conventional construction methods due to factors affecting cost overruns. The study concluded that BIM is beneficial for construction managers and fuzzy logic can help improve the accuracy of cost estimations when information is
Traffic simulation models provide an effective way to study complex traffic flow phenomena without costly and time-consuming real-world data collection and experimentation. Simulation models allow researchers to reproduce dynamic traffic conditions over time through micro, meso, or macroscopic representations. The development of accurate traffic simulation involves defining the problem, collecting field input data, establishing logical relationships between modeled elements, programming the simulation, calibrating and validating the model against real data.
Diagnose the causes of cost deviation in highway constructionFaiq M. S. Al-Zwainy
The aim of this study is identifying and diagnosing the causes of construction project failure by using different project management process groups. These groups were initiation process group, planning process group, design process group, contract process group, executing and monitoring process group, and close process group. Also, the relative importance of the causes of construction project failure was investigated. Three techniques were used in this study: Ishikawa diagrams, Pareto diagrams, and 5-why techniques. The results were generally identified and diagnosed thirty-five causes of the construction project failure; however, only twenty-three of the causes were the most important. The majority of causes (thirteen causes) were obtained by using executing and monitoring project management process group. Seven causes were obtained by using contract project management process group. In addition, fewer causes (only three causes) were obtained by using initiation project management process group.
ER Publication,
IJETR, IJMCTR,
Journals,
International Journals,
High Impact Journals,
Monthly Journal,
Good quality Journals,
Research,
Research Papers,
Research Article,
Free Journals, Open access Journals,
erpublication.org,
Engineering Journal,
Science Journals,
Modeling Delay Percentage of Construction Projects in Egypt Using Statistical...IOSR Journals
The document presents two models for predicting delay percentage in construction projects in Egypt. The first model uses regression analysis of 14 significant causes of delay identified from a literature review and questionnaire survey. These causes are used as independent variables to predict delay percentage (dependent variable) for 20 construction projects. The second model uses a statistical fuzzy approach combining fuzzy logic and regression analysis. It develops membership functions to represent delay percentages and fuzzy rules to determine expected delay. Both models are validated on a second set of 8 projects, with the regression model found to have a lower average percentage error of 30.3% compared to 38.5% for the statistical fuzzy model.
IJRET : International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology is an international peer reviewed, online journal published by eSAT Publishing House for the enhancement of research in various disciplines of Engineering and Technology. The aim and scope of the journal is to provide an academic medium and an important reference for the advancement and dissemination of research results that support high-level learning, teaching and research in the fields of Engineering and Technology. We bring together Scientists, Academician, Field Engineers, Scholars and Students of related fields of Engineering and Technology
Feasibility study of_metro_transport_case_study_maduraiDurga Rai
This document presents a feasibility study for a proposed metro rail network in Madurai, India. It begins with an introduction to feasibility studies and their importance in project development. It then proposes a methodology for conducting feasibility studies for rail projects that considers social, environmental, and economic factors.
The document applies this methodology to evaluate the feasibility of a metro system in Madurai. It analyzes the city's traffic scenario, identifies potential station locations, and forecasts population growth and demand. It also discusses technical considerations and evaluates costs, benefits, financial viability, and social and environmental impacts. Traffic surveys were conducted at key intersections to analyze existing conditions. The study aims to determine if a metro rail system would be a viable and beneficial transportation
Integrative Model for Quantitative Evaluation of Selection Telecommunication ...TELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
This paper analyzes the weight of impact factors on selection the antenna places for mobile
telecommunication system in Jordan. The new technique plays a lead role in divided area and selects the
place of antennas' sites. The main objective of this research is to minimize the antenna numbers in order
to reduce the cost. Research follows flowcharting categories and stages as: The first stage aim to classify
the effective factors on the: signal radius, better position of antenna from candidate points, reserved area,
and non-preferring position. The second stage focuses on finding the effective weight of these factors on
the decision. The third stage suggest the new proposed approach by implement the MCLP and P-center
problems in linear function. The last stage has the pseudo code for the proposed approach, where the
proposed approach provides the solution that helps the planners in telecommunication industry and in
related government agencies make informed position of the antennas.
IRJET- Redevelopment of Structure with the Help of Building Information M...IRJET Journal
This document discusses redeveloping the Aurangabad bus depot structure using Building Information Modeling (BIM) and rectifying the results with fuzzy logic. BIM was used to develop a 3D, 4D, and 5D model of the bus depot for visualization, coordination, cost estimation, and scheduling. Fuzzy logic was then applied to verify the BIM results. A case study of redeveloping a 3-story apartment building found that using BIM and fuzzy logic estimated the total project cost would increase by 5% compared to conventional construction methods due to factors affecting cost overruns. The study concluded that BIM is beneficial for construction managers and fuzzy logic can help improve the accuracy of cost estimations when information is
Traffic simulation models provide an effective way to study complex traffic flow phenomena without costly and time-consuming real-world data collection and experimentation. Simulation models allow researchers to reproduce dynamic traffic conditions over time through micro, meso, or macroscopic representations. The development of accurate traffic simulation involves defining the problem, collecting field input data, establishing logical relationships between modeled elements, programming the simulation, calibrating and validating the model against real data.
British Rail chose to invest £13 million in 1971 to develop a new computer system called TOPS to improve their freight operations management. Information on freight resources and operations was reported through a hierarchical structure from local yards to regional control rooms. Computerizing freight operations management aimed to address the economic challenges facing the freight business and help it remain competitive. There was uncertainty around whether TOPS would successfully arrest the decline of the freight business. British Rail also had to determine how to manage the introduction of this new technology and system. Two relevant theories discussed are socio-technical systems, which aims to bridge the gap between organizational change and system development, and organizational development, which focuses on empowering employees and leaders to facilitate positive organizational change.
A Study on Project Planning Using the Deterministic and Probabilistic Models ...IJERA Editor
Project planning is the important task in many areas like construction, resource allocation and many. A sequence of activities has to be performed to complete one task. Each activity has its unique processing time and all together to identify the critical activities which affect the completion of the project. In this paper the probabilistic and deterministic models to determine the project completion time and also the critical activities are considered. A case study on building construction project has been performed to demonstrate the application of the above said models. The two project scheduling namely PERT and CPM are used to determine numerically the different types of floating times of each activity and hence determined the critical path which plays an important role in the project completion time. Also a linear programing model has been developed to reduce the project completion time which optimize the resource allocation. To apply these techniques numerically the primary data from a housing project company in a metropolitan city has been taken, the network diagram of the activities involved in the building construction project has been drawn and the results are tabulated
Dynamic resource allocation in road transport sector using mobile cloud compu...IAEME Publication
This document discusses dynamic resource allocation in the road transport sector using mobile cloud computing techniques. It provides an overview of existing literature on dynamic resource allocation methods and their limitations in addressing high vehicle and route demand fluctuations. The document then proposes using mobile cloud computing to allow for real-time vehicle-route allocation with minimal processing time by installing mobile devices at stations to communicate demand data to nearby clouds and a central traffic manager for computation and order distribution. Simulation case studies are developed and results are compared to real data to validate the mobile cloud computing approach for improved dynamic resource allocation under heavy demand fluctuations.
Consequences of Road Traffic Accident in Nigeria: Time Series Approach Editor IJCATR
Road traffic accident in Nigeria is increasing at a worrying rate and has raised one of the country major concerns. We provided appropriate and suitable time series model for the consequences of road accident, the injured, killed and total casualty of the road accident in Nigeria. The most widely used conventional method, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model of time series, also known as Box-Jenkins method is applied to yearly data on the consequences of road accident data in Nigeria from 1960-2013 to determine patterns of road traffic accident consequences; injured, killed and total casualty of the road accident along the Nigeria motorway. Appropriate models are developed for the accident consequences; injured, killed and total casualty. ARIMA (0; 2; 1) model is obtained for the injury and total casualty consequences, whilst ARIMA(1,2,2) model is obtained for the killed consequences, using the data from 1960-2011. The adequacy and the performance of the model are tested on the remaining data from 2012 to 2013. Seven years forecast are provided using the developed models and showed that road traffic accident consequences examined; injured, killed and total casualty would continue to increase on average.
IRJET-Factors influencing Time and Cost Overruns in Road Construction Project...IRJET Journal
This document summarizes a review paper on factors influencing time and cost overruns in road construction projects in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. It begins with an introduction on the importance of the construction industry to a country's economy. It then reviews literature on definitions of key terms like time overrun, cost overrun, and causes of overruns. The review found that common causes of overruns in Ethiopia included slow site clearance, contractor financial problems, inflation, payment delays, inaccurate cost estimation, and delays in project commencement. Several studies on specific road projects in Addis Ababa found time overruns ranging from 25-264% and cost overruns from 4-135%. The document concludes that identifying the main causes of
Knowledge-based Expert System for Route Selection of Road AlignmentUCSI University
This document summarizes a study that developed an expert system using GIS to assist in highway geometric design and route selection. The study integrated GIS to obtain contour map data for the design area, which was then used as input for the expert system. The expert system evaluates potential route alignments based on economic, technical, environmental, and other factors to recommend the best alignment. It aims to help engineers efficiently evaluate alternatives and make recommendations for highway geometric design. The methodology combines GIS for spatial data with an expert system that applies rules to select an optimal route alignment.
Using Multi-Criteria Decision and knowledge representation methodologies for ...Nit Celesc
This document describes a methodology used to evaluate innovation projects for an electric power company in Brazil. It uses multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to establish criteria and weights for evaluating projects. Key criteria included originality, applicability, relevance, and cost reasonableness. The methodology decomposed the evaluation hierarchy and used pairwise comparisons to determine relative importance of criteria. This allowed establishing priority scores for projects and simulating different evaluation scenarios. The results provided an effective tool to support the company's evaluation and selection of research and development projects.
Traffic Stream Relationships of Two-Lane Highways: A Case of Akure-Ondo Road ...IJAEMSJORNAL
In the design and planning process of highway infrastructure, speed-flow-density relationships are useful tools for predicting the roadway capacity, determining adequate level-of-service of traffic flow and travel time for a given roadway. The speed-flow-density relationships currently used for transportation studies in Nigeria is derived from the Highway Capacity Manual, which does not reflect the true traffic situation on two-lane roads in Nigeria. Developing cost effective tools for describing these relationships in the context of a developing country like Nigeria is imperative. The aim of this study was to develop models to describe the relationship between traffic flow, speed and density on Akure-Ondo two-lane highway in southwest Nigeria. Moving observer technique was employed to collect traffic stream data over a stretch of 5km on the study segment during periods of uniform flow on weekdays. To describe the traffic stream relationships, two approaches namely: related and nonrelated traffic stream models were developed. The nonrelated traffic stream models gave inaccurate relationships while the related traffic stream modelling approach performed well at describing speed-flow, flow-density and flow-speed relationships with R2 values 0.62, 0.75, and 0.80 respectively. The relationships developed from related traffic stream models estimated maximum flow on the study segment as 330 veh/h at an optimum density of 4.44 veh/km. The speed at maximum flow was estimated as 74.5km/h, while the free flow speed was estimated as 149.027km/h.
The document discusses a proposed project to expand a 207.4 km state highway from Hyderabad to Karimnagar and Ramagundam in Andhra Pradesh to a four-lane road. The total cost is estimated at Rs. 1,358.19 crores and it will be developed on a build-operate-transfer model. Feasibility studies show the project has a payback period of 4 years 2 months, a positive net present value, and a benefit-cost ratio greater than 1, indicating the project is financially viable. The expanded highway will improve connectivity and traffic flow between Hyderabad and Karimnagar.
an application of analytic network process for evaluating public transport su...BME
For public transportation problem there are some analytic hierarchical processes for decision support, however there only very few applications which consider the interrelations between the public transport supply quality factors. Because representing the problem by the analytic network process is more similar to real situations where the factors act in a non hierarchical way. The paper aims to analyze the interrelation and the importance of relevant factors in public transportation systems by using the analytic network process, that support the decision makers to evaluate the impacts of different criteria in the final result.
Sustainable New Towns and Transportation Planning; Reflection of A Case Study by Abdol Aziz Shahraki* in Advancements in Civil Engineering & Technology
Cirug¡a de tejido tegumentario en pequeños animalesRobinson Silva
Este documento proporciona información sobre los principios y técnicas de la cirugía de tejidos blandos y del sistema tegumentario. Describe los principios de asepsia, el manejo delicado de los tejidos, la preservación de la vascularización y otras consideraciones técnicas. También cubre temas como el manejo de heridas, factores que influyen en la cicatrización, clasificación de heridas, suturas, colgajos, injertos y el manejo quirúrgico de lesiones específicas.
An Higher Case Operation and Analysis of a Multiple Renewable Resources Conne...IJERA Editor
In our nation the usage of electricity is increasing day-by-day. According to that conserdations, the generated
power from the non-renewable sources will not satisfy the demands properly. so for these purpose, by using
multiple renewable sources, it will be very useful to some type of dc applications. The power produced from the
individual renewable sources will not be satisfy the demand at all times. So by integration of a multiple
renewable sources such as wind and solar a huge amount of power will be produced. These power will be
coordinated to the ac grid or directly to dc consumers. For integration of renewable sources an aggregated model
has to be proposed. In according to these operation BESS (battery energy storage system)is equipped with the
system for maintaining the power balance. For obtaining the power balance the adaptive droop control technique
has to be proposed and droop curves are evaluated. The droop characteristics are selected on the basis of the
deviation between the optimized and real-time SOC of the BESS. In these paper, the operational analysis can be
performed when real time soc is higher than the optimised soc and droop curves are plotted.
1) The document investigates the effect of carbon fiber content on the mechanical properties of hybrid composite laminates made of woven carbon, glass fibers and epoxy resin.
2) Specimens with different carbon fiber percentages were tested for tensile strength, compression strength, impact strength, and flexural strength.
3) The results showed that increasing the carbon fiber content increased the mechanical properties of the composite laminate in all tests. The specimen with the highest carbon fiber content performed best mechanically.
This document discusses analyzing and evaluating suitable sites for a textile wastewater treatment plant in Salem, India using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The study area experiences high population growth and economic development putting pressure on water resources. Textile industries in the area discharge wastewater containing dyes and chemicals. The document examines using GIS to select the best location for a treatment plant by evaluating factors like ground slope, land use, and proximity to rivers and roads to minimize environmental degradation. Spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS were used to classify suitable sites as good, moderate, or poorly suitable.
Probability-Based Diagnostic Imaging Technique Using Error Functions for Acti...IJERA Editor
This study presents a novel probability-based diagnostic imaging (PDI) technique using error functions for active structural health monitoring (SHM). To achieve this, first the changes between baseline and current signals of each sensing path are measured, and by taking the root mean square of such changes, the energy of the scattered signal at different times can be calculated. Then, for different pairs of signal acquisition paths, an error function based on the energy of the scattered signals is introduced. Finally, the resultant error function is fused to the final estimation of the probability of damage presence in the monitoring area. As for applications, developed methods were employed to various damage identification cases, including cracks located in regions among an active sensor network with different configurations (pulse-echo and pitch-catch), and holes located in regions outside active network sensors with pitch-catch configuration. The results identified using experimental Lamb wave signals at different central frequencies corroborated that the developed PDI technique using error functions is capable of monitoring structural damage, regardless of its shape, size and location. The developed method doesn’t need direct interpretation of overlaid and dispersed lamb wave components for damage identification and can monitor damage located anywhere in the structure. These bright advantages, qualify the above presented PDI method for online structural health monitoring.
The document describes the design and fabrication of a Savonius wind mill. It discusses the various components of the wind mill including the rotor, shaft, and shell type transformer. Formulas are provided for calculating the kinetic energy of air, power produced by the turbine, and efficiency factors like torque coefficient and power coefficient. The fabrication process involves cutting, drilling, bending, and assembling PVC pipes, plywood, and other materials to construct the vertical axis wind turbine.
Hamiltonian Chromatic Number of GraphsIJERA Editor
This paper studies the Hamiltonian coloring and Hamiltonian chromatic number for different graphs .the main
results are1.For any integer n greater than or equal to three, Hamiltonian chromatic number of Cn is equal to n-2.
2. G is a graph obtained by adding a pendant edge to Hamiltonian graph H, and then Hamiltonian chromatic
number of G is equal to n-1. 3. For every connected graph G of order n greater than or equal to 2, Hamiltonian
chromatic number of G is not more than one increment of square of (n-2).
Performance Analysis of Cognitive Radio for Wi-Fi Signals Using Cyclostationa...IJERA Editor
The need for radio spectrum usage is increasing day by day with recent advancements in wireless system. But there is limited amount of spectrum available. So that for solving this problem Cognitive Radio (CR) is used for purpose of the spectrum utilization properly. Basically the Licensed users use the licensed bands but the unlicensed users should always check spectrum with the help of CR technology. The main aim of cognitive radio is to sense the spectrum continuously. In this paper, we have provided the proposal that how the capacity of the system can be increased by reuse the unused licensed band by simulating a Cognitive radio system. The secondary users can occupy free space (spectrum holes) and also licensed bands by continuously monitoring the spectrum. The requirements of cognitive radio systems will be investigated by considering spectrum sensing techniques. To achieve this, a Cyclostationary Spectrum Sensing technique is studied and applied to detect OFDM signals in a noisy environment. The results are obtained for the applications employed in high frequency, such as, Wi-Fi.
The Influence of Supply Chain Integration on the Intrapreneurship in Supply C...IJERA Editor
These days, SMEs pay a lot of attention to concept of Supply Chain Management (SCM) in order to achieve
competitiveness. The logic behind such act is integrating the activities of value creation within any kind of
organizational context. Such integrity would collaborate with managers to accomplish the competitive edge that
they are aiming to achieve. The goal of current research is to identify scopes of a unique construct which is
known as Entrepreneurial Supply Chain Management competency. Therefore, the notions of SCM and
entrepreneurship are being aligned together for evaluating the organizational performance. The outcomes
demonstrate that SCM in fact is a critical issue that can alter the organizational performance, thus, through
consideration of SCM, we should focus on supply chain integration and its impacts on intrapreneurship and
innovation of an organization. In order to be successful in such competitive context, SMEs need to provide
novel competences which are not imitable and to increase their application in supply chain and also to improve
their total performance.
Improving the Role of Universities in Conserving the Architectural HeritageIJERA Editor
Universities are known by their significant role in forming the cognitive and educational minds. This paper focused on improving the role of the universities in conserving the architectural heritage through developing an effectivefertile research system that plays a major role in building the necessary programs planned for the architectural heritage conservation. In this paper, a methodology was proposed including archeological survey a documentation of the registered and unregistered historical buildings and archeological sites planned by the local universities in order to come up yet with a reliable source for the status of those historical buildings and sites and improve the universities role in conserving the architectural heritage especially on the research and documentation part of the conservation process.
1. The document introduces concepts of equitable domination in fuzzy graphs. It defines fuzzy dominating sets and fuzzy domination numbers.
2. An equitable dominating set in a fuzzy graph is defined such that the degree of any dominating vertex is never more than 1 greater than the degree of the dominated vertex. The minimum cardinality of an equitable dominating set is the equitable domination number.
3. Properties of equitable domination in fuzzy graphs are explored, including results showing the domination number and equitable domination number are equal for regular and bi-regular fuzzy graphs. The concept of equitable isolates is also introduced.
British Rail chose to invest £13 million in 1971 to develop a new computer system called TOPS to improve their freight operations management. Information on freight resources and operations was reported through a hierarchical structure from local yards to regional control rooms. Computerizing freight operations management aimed to address the economic challenges facing the freight business and help it remain competitive. There was uncertainty around whether TOPS would successfully arrest the decline of the freight business. British Rail also had to determine how to manage the introduction of this new technology and system. Two relevant theories discussed are socio-technical systems, which aims to bridge the gap between organizational change and system development, and organizational development, which focuses on empowering employees and leaders to facilitate positive organizational change.
A Study on Project Planning Using the Deterministic and Probabilistic Models ...IJERA Editor
Project planning is the important task in many areas like construction, resource allocation and many. A sequence of activities has to be performed to complete one task. Each activity has its unique processing time and all together to identify the critical activities which affect the completion of the project. In this paper the probabilistic and deterministic models to determine the project completion time and also the critical activities are considered. A case study on building construction project has been performed to demonstrate the application of the above said models. The two project scheduling namely PERT and CPM are used to determine numerically the different types of floating times of each activity and hence determined the critical path which plays an important role in the project completion time. Also a linear programing model has been developed to reduce the project completion time which optimize the resource allocation. To apply these techniques numerically the primary data from a housing project company in a metropolitan city has been taken, the network diagram of the activities involved in the building construction project has been drawn and the results are tabulated
Dynamic resource allocation in road transport sector using mobile cloud compu...IAEME Publication
This document discusses dynamic resource allocation in the road transport sector using mobile cloud computing techniques. It provides an overview of existing literature on dynamic resource allocation methods and their limitations in addressing high vehicle and route demand fluctuations. The document then proposes using mobile cloud computing to allow for real-time vehicle-route allocation with minimal processing time by installing mobile devices at stations to communicate demand data to nearby clouds and a central traffic manager for computation and order distribution. Simulation case studies are developed and results are compared to real data to validate the mobile cloud computing approach for improved dynamic resource allocation under heavy demand fluctuations.
Consequences of Road Traffic Accident in Nigeria: Time Series Approach Editor IJCATR
Road traffic accident in Nigeria is increasing at a worrying rate and has raised one of the country major concerns. We provided appropriate and suitable time series model for the consequences of road accident, the injured, killed and total casualty of the road accident in Nigeria. The most widely used conventional method, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model of time series, also known as Box-Jenkins method is applied to yearly data on the consequences of road accident data in Nigeria from 1960-2013 to determine patterns of road traffic accident consequences; injured, killed and total casualty of the road accident along the Nigeria motorway. Appropriate models are developed for the accident consequences; injured, killed and total casualty. ARIMA (0; 2; 1) model is obtained for the injury and total casualty consequences, whilst ARIMA(1,2,2) model is obtained for the killed consequences, using the data from 1960-2011. The adequacy and the performance of the model are tested on the remaining data from 2012 to 2013. Seven years forecast are provided using the developed models and showed that road traffic accident consequences examined; injured, killed and total casualty would continue to increase on average.
IRJET-Factors influencing Time and Cost Overruns in Road Construction Project...IRJET Journal
This document summarizes a review paper on factors influencing time and cost overruns in road construction projects in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. It begins with an introduction on the importance of the construction industry to a country's economy. It then reviews literature on definitions of key terms like time overrun, cost overrun, and causes of overruns. The review found that common causes of overruns in Ethiopia included slow site clearance, contractor financial problems, inflation, payment delays, inaccurate cost estimation, and delays in project commencement. Several studies on specific road projects in Addis Ababa found time overruns ranging from 25-264% and cost overruns from 4-135%. The document concludes that identifying the main causes of
Knowledge-based Expert System for Route Selection of Road AlignmentUCSI University
This document summarizes a study that developed an expert system using GIS to assist in highway geometric design and route selection. The study integrated GIS to obtain contour map data for the design area, which was then used as input for the expert system. The expert system evaluates potential route alignments based on economic, technical, environmental, and other factors to recommend the best alignment. It aims to help engineers efficiently evaluate alternatives and make recommendations for highway geometric design. The methodology combines GIS for spatial data with an expert system that applies rules to select an optimal route alignment.
Using Multi-Criteria Decision and knowledge representation methodologies for ...Nit Celesc
This document describes a methodology used to evaluate innovation projects for an electric power company in Brazil. It uses multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to establish criteria and weights for evaluating projects. Key criteria included originality, applicability, relevance, and cost reasonableness. The methodology decomposed the evaluation hierarchy and used pairwise comparisons to determine relative importance of criteria. This allowed establishing priority scores for projects and simulating different evaluation scenarios. The results provided an effective tool to support the company's evaluation and selection of research and development projects.
Traffic Stream Relationships of Two-Lane Highways: A Case of Akure-Ondo Road ...IJAEMSJORNAL
In the design and planning process of highway infrastructure, speed-flow-density relationships are useful tools for predicting the roadway capacity, determining adequate level-of-service of traffic flow and travel time for a given roadway. The speed-flow-density relationships currently used for transportation studies in Nigeria is derived from the Highway Capacity Manual, which does not reflect the true traffic situation on two-lane roads in Nigeria. Developing cost effective tools for describing these relationships in the context of a developing country like Nigeria is imperative. The aim of this study was to develop models to describe the relationship between traffic flow, speed and density on Akure-Ondo two-lane highway in southwest Nigeria. Moving observer technique was employed to collect traffic stream data over a stretch of 5km on the study segment during periods of uniform flow on weekdays. To describe the traffic stream relationships, two approaches namely: related and nonrelated traffic stream models were developed. The nonrelated traffic stream models gave inaccurate relationships while the related traffic stream modelling approach performed well at describing speed-flow, flow-density and flow-speed relationships with R2 values 0.62, 0.75, and 0.80 respectively. The relationships developed from related traffic stream models estimated maximum flow on the study segment as 330 veh/h at an optimum density of 4.44 veh/km. The speed at maximum flow was estimated as 74.5km/h, while the free flow speed was estimated as 149.027km/h.
The document discusses a proposed project to expand a 207.4 km state highway from Hyderabad to Karimnagar and Ramagundam in Andhra Pradesh to a four-lane road. The total cost is estimated at Rs. 1,358.19 crores and it will be developed on a build-operate-transfer model. Feasibility studies show the project has a payback period of 4 years 2 months, a positive net present value, and a benefit-cost ratio greater than 1, indicating the project is financially viable. The expanded highway will improve connectivity and traffic flow between Hyderabad and Karimnagar.
an application of analytic network process for evaluating public transport su...BME
For public transportation problem there are some analytic hierarchical processes for decision support, however there only very few applications which consider the interrelations between the public transport supply quality factors. Because representing the problem by the analytic network process is more similar to real situations where the factors act in a non hierarchical way. The paper aims to analyze the interrelation and the importance of relevant factors in public transportation systems by using the analytic network process, that support the decision makers to evaluate the impacts of different criteria in the final result.
Sustainable New Towns and Transportation Planning; Reflection of A Case Study by Abdol Aziz Shahraki* in Advancements in Civil Engineering & Technology
Cirug¡a de tejido tegumentario en pequeños animalesRobinson Silva
Este documento proporciona información sobre los principios y técnicas de la cirugía de tejidos blandos y del sistema tegumentario. Describe los principios de asepsia, el manejo delicado de los tejidos, la preservación de la vascularización y otras consideraciones técnicas. También cubre temas como el manejo de heridas, factores que influyen en la cicatrización, clasificación de heridas, suturas, colgajos, injertos y el manejo quirúrgico de lesiones específicas.
An Higher Case Operation and Analysis of a Multiple Renewable Resources Conne...IJERA Editor
In our nation the usage of electricity is increasing day-by-day. According to that conserdations, the generated
power from the non-renewable sources will not satisfy the demands properly. so for these purpose, by using
multiple renewable sources, it will be very useful to some type of dc applications. The power produced from the
individual renewable sources will not be satisfy the demand at all times. So by integration of a multiple
renewable sources such as wind and solar a huge amount of power will be produced. These power will be
coordinated to the ac grid or directly to dc consumers. For integration of renewable sources an aggregated model
has to be proposed. In according to these operation BESS (battery energy storage system)is equipped with the
system for maintaining the power balance. For obtaining the power balance the adaptive droop control technique
has to be proposed and droop curves are evaluated. The droop characteristics are selected on the basis of the
deviation between the optimized and real-time SOC of the BESS. In these paper, the operational analysis can be
performed when real time soc is higher than the optimised soc and droop curves are plotted.
1) The document investigates the effect of carbon fiber content on the mechanical properties of hybrid composite laminates made of woven carbon, glass fibers and epoxy resin.
2) Specimens with different carbon fiber percentages were tested for tensile strength, compression strength, impact strength, and flexural strength.
3) The results showed that increasing the carbon fiber content increased the mechanical properties of the composite laminate in all tests. The specimen with the highest carbon fiber content performed best mechanically.
This document discusses analyzing and evaluating suitable sites for a textile wastewater treatment plant in Salem, India using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The study area experiences high population growth and economic development putting pressure on water resources. Textile industries in the area discharge wastewater containing dyes and chemicals. The document examines using GIS to select the best location for a treatment plant by evaluating factors like ground slope, land use, and proximity to rivers and roads to minimize environmental degradation. Spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS were used to classify suitable sites as good, moderate, or poorly suitable.
Probability-Based Diagnostic Imaging Technique Using Error Functions for Acti...IJERA Editor
This study presents a novel probability-based diagnostic imaging (PDI) technique using error functions for active structural health monitoring (SHM). To achieve this, first the changes between baseline and current signals of each sensing path are measured, and by taking the root mean square of such changes, the energy of the scattered signal at different times can be calculated. Then, for different pairs of signal acquisition paths, an error function based on the energy of the scattered signals is introduced. Finally, the resultant error function is fused to the final estimation of the probability of damage presence in the monitoring area. As for applications, developed methods were employed to various damage identification cases, including cracks located in regions among an active sensor network with different configurations (pulse-echo and pitch-catch), and holes located in regions outside active network sensors with pitch-catch configuration. The results identified using experimental Lamb wave signals at different central frequencies corroborated that the developed PDI technique using error functions is capable of monitoring structural damage, regardless of its shape, size and location. The developed method doesn’t need direct interpretation of overlaid and dispersed lamb wave components for damage identification and can monitor damage located anywhere in the structure. These bright advantages, qualify the above presented PDI method for online structural health monitoring.
The document describes the design and fabrication of a Savonius wind mill. It discusses the various components of the wind mill including the rotor, shaft, and shell type transformer. Formulas are provided for calculating the kinetic energy of air, power produced by the turbine, and efficiency factors like torque coefficient and power coefficient. The fabrication process involves cutting, drilling, bending, and assembling PVC pipes, plywood, and other materials to construct the vertical axis wind turbine.
Hamiltonian Chromatic Number of GraphsIJERA Editor
This paper studies the Hamiltonian coloring and Hamiltonian chromatic number for different graphs .the main
results are1.For any integer n greater than or equal to three, Hamiltonian chromatic number of Cn is equal to n-2.
2. G is a graph obtained by adding a pendant edge to Hamiltonian graph H, and then Hamiltonian chromatic
number of G is equal to n-1. 3. For every connected graph G of order n greater than or equal to 2, Hamiltonian
chromatic number of G is not more than one increment of square of (n-2).
Performance Analysis of Cognitive Radio for Wi-Fi Signals Using Cyclostationa...IJERA Editor
The need for radio spectrum usage is increasing day by day with recent advancements in wireless system. But there is limited amount of spectrum available. So that for solving this problem Cognitive Radio (CR) is used for purpose of the spectrum utilization properly. Basically the Licensed users use the licensed bands but the unlicensed users should always check spectrum with the help of CR technology. The main aim of cognitive radio is to sense the spectrum continuously. In this paper, we have provided the proposal that how the capacity of the system can be increased by reuse the unused licensed band by simulating a Cognitive radio system. The secondary users can occupy free space (spectrum holes) and also licensed bands by continuously monitoring the spectrum. The requirements of cognitive radio systems will be investigated by considering spectrum sensing techniques. To achieve this, a Cyclostationary Spectrum Sensing technique is studied and applied to detect OFDM signals in a noisy environment. The results are obtained for the applications employed in high frequency, such as, Wi-Fi.
The Influence of Supply Chain Integration on the Intrapreneurship in Supply C...IJERA Editor
These days, SMEs pay a lot of attention to concept of Supply Chain Management (SCM) in order to achieve
competitiveness. The logic behind such act is integrating the activities of value creation within any kind of
organizational context. Such integrity would collaborate with managers to accomplish the competitive edge that
they are aiming to achieve. The goal of current research is to identify scopes of a unique construct which is
known as Entrepreneurial Supply Chain Management competency. Therefore, the notions of SCM and
entrepreneurship are being aligned together for evaluating the organizational performance. The outcomes
demonstrate that SCM in fact is a critical issue that can alter the organizational performance, thus, through
consideration of SCM, we should focus on supply chain integration and its impacts on intrapreneurship and
innovation of an organization. In order to be successful in such competitive context, SMEs need to provide
novel competences which are not imitable and to increase their application in supply chain and also to improve
their total performance.
Improving the Role of Universities in Conserving the Architectural HeritageIJERA Editor
Universities are known by their significant role in forming the cognitive and educational minds. This paper focused on improving the role of the universities in conserving the architectural heritage through developing an effectivefertile research system that plays a major role in building the necessary programs planned for the architectural heritage conservation. In this paper, a methodology was proposed including archeological survey a documentation of the registered and unregistered historical buildings and archeological sites planned by the local universities in order to come up yet with a reliable source for the status of those historical buildings and sites and improve the universities role in conserving the architectural heritage especially on the research and documentation part of the conservation process.
1. The document introduces concepts of equitable domination in fuzzy graphs. It defines fuzzy dominating sets and fuzzy domination numbers.
2. An equitable dominating set in a fuzzy graph is defined such that the degree of any dominating vertex is never more than 1 greater than the degree of the dominated vertex. The minimum cardinality of an equitable dominating set is the equitable domination number.
3. Properties of equitable domination in fuzzy graphs are explored, including results showing the domination number and equitable domination number are equal for regular and bi-regular fuzzy graphs. The concept of equitable isolates is also introduced.
The Cortisol Awakening Response Using Modified Proposed Method of Forecasting...IJERA Editor
A growing body of data suggests that a significantly enhanced salivary cortisol response to waking may indicate
an enduring tendency to abnormal cortisol regulation. More methods have been proposed to deal with
forecasting problems using fuzzy time series. In this paper, our objective was to apply the response test to a
population already known to have long-term hypothalamo–pituitary–adrenocortical (HPA) axis dysregulation.
We hypothesized that the free cortisol response to waking, believed to be genetically influenced, would be
elevated in a significant percent age of cases, regard less of the afternoon Dexamethasone Suppression Test
(DST) value based on fuzzy time series and genetic algorithms. The proposed method adjusts the length of each
interval in the universe of discourse for forecasting the Longitudinal Dexamethasone Suppression Test (DST)
data on a fully remitted lithium responder for past 5 years who was asymptomatic and treated with lithium
throughout the experimental results show that the proposed method gets good forecasting results.
Preparation and Investigation on Properties of Cryogenically Solidified Nano ...IJERA Editor
In the present work, AL-alloy containing 12% silicon (LM 13) matrix nano composites were fabricated in sand moulds by using copper end blocks of copper end chill thickness 10 &15 nm with cryogenic effect . The size of the reinforcement (NanoZro2) ranges from 50-80nm being added ranges from 3 to 15 wt % in steps of 3 wt % . Cryogenically solidified Nano Metal Matrix Composites were compressed by using hydraulic compression machine. Specimens were prepared according to ASTM standards and tested for their strength, hardness and fracture toughness. Micro structural studies of the fabricated Nano Composites indicate that there is uniform distributions of reinforcements in the matrix materials (LM 13). An increasing trend of hardness, UTS & fracture toughness has been observed. The best results have been obtained at 12 wt %. The results were further justified by comparing two copper end chill thickness 10 &15 mm. Finally the Volumetric Heat Capacity of the cryo-chill is identified as an important parameter which affects mechanical properties.
Application ofBoost Inverter to Multi Input PV systemIJERA Editor
With the shortage of the energy and ever increasing of the oil price, research on the renewable and green energy
sources, especially the solar arrays and the fuel cells, becomes more and more important. How to achieve high
step- up and high efficiency DC/DC converters is the major consideration in the renewable power applications
due to the low voltage of PV arrays and fuel cells. The conventional boost converters increase the harmonics
rate and add an extra stage of power conversion. This paper proposes a boost dc-ac inverter that can invert and
boost the output voltage in a single stage. In this paper the proposed boost dc-ac inverter is applied to the solar
power panels and is simulated using Simulink. The output results of the boost inverter are worthy promising.
Size and Time Estimation in Goal Graph Using Use Case Points (UCP): A SurveyIJERA Editor
In order to achieve ideal status and meet demands of stakeholders, each organization should follow their vision and long term plan. Goals and strategies are two fundamental basis in vision and mission. Goals identify framework of organization where processes, rules and resources are designed. Goals are modelled based on a graph structure by means of extraction, classification and determining requirements and their relations and in form of graph. Goal graph shows goals which should be satisfied in order to guarantee right route of organization. On the other hand, these goals can be called as predefined sub projects which business management unit should consider and analyse them. If we know approximate size and time of each part, we will design better management plans resulting in more prosperity and less fail. This paper studies how use case points method is used in calculating size and time in goal graph.
Duration for Classification and Regression Treefor Marathi Textto- Speech Syn...IJERA Editor
This research paper reports preliminary results of data-driven modeling of segmentalphoneme duration for
Marathi. Classification and Regression Tree based data driven duration modeling for segmental duration
prediction is presented. A number of features are considered and their usefulness and relative contribution for
segmental duration prediction is assessed. Objective evaluation of the duration model, by root mean squared
prediction error and correlation between actual and predicted durations, is performed.
Implementation of Full-Bridge Single-Stage Converter with Reduced Auxiliary C...IJERA Editor
The inclusion of a few additional diodes and passive elements in the high-frequency full-bridge ac–dc converter with galvanic isolation permits one to achieve sinusoidal input-current wave shaping and output-voltage regulation simultaneously without adding any auxiliary transistors. Recently, this procedure, together with an appropriate control process, has been used to obtain low-cost high-efficiency single-stage converters. In an attempt to improve the performance of such converters, this paper introduces three new single-stage full-bridge ac–dc topologies with some optimized characteristics and compares them with the ones of the existing full-bridge single-stage topologies. The approach used consists in the definition of the operating principles identifying the boost function for each topology, their operating limits, and the dependence between the two involved conversion processes. Experimental results for each topology were obtained in 500-W modular voltage disturbances that result from the input-current wave-shaping process.
On Semi-Invariant Submanifolds of a Nearly Hyperbolic Kenmotsu Manifold with ...IJERA Editor
We consider a nearly hyperbolic Kenmotsu manifold admitting a semi-symmetric metric connection and study semi-invariant submanifolds of a nearly hyperbolic Kenmotsu manifold with semi-symmetric metric connection. We also find the integrability conditions of some distributions on nearly hyperbolic Kenmotsu manifold andstudy parallel distributions on nearly hyperbolic Kenmotsu manifold.
Vector Controlled Two Phase Induction Motor and To A Three Phase Induction MotorIJERA Editor
This paper presents vector controlled of single phase induction motor. some problems are with vector controlled SPIM.As SPIM’s are typically to maintain speed and also about the complex implementation of vector controlled SPIM.the implemantion of the proposed vector controlled TPIM compared to the vector controlled SPIM. The general modal sutable for vector control of the unsymmentrical two phase induction motor and also stator flux oriented controlled strategies are analized. the comparative performance of both has been presented in this work with help of a practical three phase motor.
1) The document discusses heat transfer analysis methods to optimize the water cooling scheme for combustion devices used in torpedo propulsion systems.
2) It describes the components of the combustion chamber including the inner and outer walls that form the coolant passageway. Heat transfer is highest in the nozzle throat region.
3) Methods for calculating heat transfer rates, temperatures, velocities and other parameters on both the gas and coolant sides are presented using equations from heat transfer theory. The analysis can be used to optimize the cooling system design.
Risk Contingency Evaluation in International Construction Projects (Real Case...IJLT EMAS
Most construction companies operating in the global construction industry would undertake international projects to maximize their profitability through benefitting from the new attractive markets and reducing the dependence upon local markets. As a result of the nature of construction works the company and project's conditions actually include massive risks and uncertainty. So the risk sensitivity of projects costs should be assessed in a realistic manner. The comprehensive risk assessment method was introduced as a decision making supporting tool to be employed for international constructive projects through applying a risk model that will aid the procedures of evaluating risks and prioritizing such projects and assessing risk contingency value. Both the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), applied for evaluating risk factors weight (likelihood), and FUZZY LOGIC approach, applied for evaluating risk factors influence (Risk consequences) employing software aids such as EXECL and MATLAB software, were used for developing the risk model. The reliability of the developed software has been verified by applications on a real construction projects. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun resulting from risk on basis of actual final reports of projects. Six actual case studies from different countries were chosen to determine the highest risk factors and to implement the designed models, test their results and evaluate risk cost impact. The proposed models result showed that: the highest and lowest risk contingency percentage of 48 % and 16 % were in Project no (5), (6) respectively in Egypt. On the other hand, the projects no (1, 2, 4,7) in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Libya and Jordan, the risk contingency of 29%, 39%, 20% and 28% respectively. The actual results are close to those of the proposed program.
IRJET- Developing Cost Prediction Model for Building ProjectIRJET Journal
1. The document discusses developing a cost prediction model for building projects using multiple regression analysis. It aims to identify factors affecting project cost and analyze their significance.
2. Seven major factors were selected for the cost prediction model: design related factors, time or cost related factors, parties experience related factors, financial issues related factors, bidding situations related factors, project characteristics related factors and estimating process related factors.
3. The cost prediction model will be developed using SPSS software by determining the factors governing project cost through a questionnaire survey that examines these seven factors.
IRJET- A Study on Factors Affecting Estimation of Construction ProjectIRJET Journal
This document discusses factors that affect the accuracy of construction project cost estimation. It begins by outlining the importance of accurate cost estimation for construction projects. It then reviews previous literature that has identified various factors such as ineffective planning, design changes, weather, and material cost fluctuations.
The document describes the objectives of the study, which are to explore common cost estimation practices and identify significant cost estimation factors. It then provides more detail on the literature review, outlining several previous studies that examined factors like demand, time effects, use of rough set theory and neural networks in cost models, and factors relevant at different project stages.
The literature review discusses previous research identifying factors such as experience, project complexity, scope definition, cost data
STUDY AND ANALYSIS OF CONCRETE STRENGTH PARAMETERS USING VETIVER GRASS ASH AS...Vamsi Kovalam
The development of a new building material based on vetiver grass ash for use in the rural areas of the developing countries is experimentally investigated.
The properties of VGA were experimentally studied to consider the possibility of using VGA as a pozzolanic material.
Many developing countries are attempting to develop substitutes for cement from locally available raw materials like agricultural and industrial waste.
Fly ash ,rice husk ash and rice straw ash have been proven to be economical partial substitutes for cement
IRJET- A Study on Factors Affecting Estimation of Construction Project : Conc...IRJET Journal
This document summarizes a study on factors affecting the estimation of construction project costs. It identifies 12 key factors that influence cost estimation accuracy based on a survey of experts. These include economic instability, quality of project planning/management, experience of estimators, and availability of management/finance plans. The study develops an artificial neural network model to predict cost variance based on these factors. Testing shows the model can predict cost variance with 80% accuracy. It recommends construction parties consider the 12 identified factors when preparing estimates and assigning qualified project managers, estimators, and planners to reduce cost variance. Further research expanding the model to different project types and using a more structured project database is suggested.
Construction Management (CM) has to deal with a variety of uncertainties related to Time, Cost, Quality, and Safety, to name a few. Such uncertainties make the entire construction process highly unpredictable. It, therefore, falls under the purview of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in which the given hazy information can be effectively interpreted in order to arrive at meaningful conclusions. This paper reviews the application of ANNs in construction activities related to the prediction of costs, risk, and safety, tender bids, as well as labor and equipment productivity. The review suggests that the ANN’s had been highly beneficial in correctly interpreting inadequate input information. It was seen that most of the investigators used the feed forward back propagation type of the network; however, if a single ANN architecture was found to be insufficient, then hybrid modeling in association with other machine learning tools such as genetic programming and support vector machines were much useful. It was however clear that the authenticity of data and experience of the modeler are important in obtaining good results.
Time-Cost Trade-Off Analysis in a Construction Project Problem: Case Studyijceronline
In construction project, cost and time reduction is crucial in today’s competitive market respect. Cost and time along with quality of the project play vital role in construction project’s decision. Reduction in cost and time of projects has increased the demand of construction project in the recent years. Trade-off between different conflicting aspects of projects is one of the challenging problems often faced by construction companies. Time, cost and quality of project delivery are the important aspects of each project which lead researchers in developing time-cost trade-off model. These models are serving as important management tool for overcoming the limitation of critical path methods frequently used by company. The objective of time-cost trade-off analysis is to reduce the original project duration with possible least total cost. In this paper critical path method with a heuristic method is used to find out the crash durations and crash costs. A regression analysis is performed to identify the relationship between the times and costs in order to formulize an optimization problem model. The problem is then solved by Matlab program which yields a least cost of $60937 with duration 129.50 ≈130 days. Applying this approach, the result obtained is satisfactory, which is an indication of usefulness of this approach in construction project problems.
Delay Analysis in EPC Projects using Ishikawa DiagramIJAEMSJORNAL
Delay is one of the major issues in EPC projects in Oman. Project managers are not considering the root causes of delay while taking preventive measures. This project aims to identify the most common types of delay in EPC projects, to find out the root causes of delay by using Ishikawa diagram and further to prepare acceleration plan for a running project by using schedule compression techniques. The objectives of this project are: (a ) to identify root causes of various delays commonly affecting the EPC projects in Oman by using Ishikawa diagram. (b) to identify critical delay cause factors for a running project by conducting questionnaire survey. (c) to prepare acceleration plan for the project by using schedule compression techniques. To achieve this study: all the information was collected, schedules were compared to calculate the delay in each activity, questionnaire survey was conducted to study the impact of various factors causing delay and the root causes by using Ishikawa diagram and finally prepared an acceleration plan by using schedule compression techniques . The results found are: time and cost constraints are the biggest obstacle causing delay in EPC projects. The study identified the importance of analyzing the root causes before taking any particular preventive measures.
IRJET- A Study on Factors Affecting Estimation of Construction Project : Conc...IRJET Journal
This document summarizes a study on factors affecting the estimation of construction project costs. It identifies 12 key factors that influence cost estimation accuracy based on a questionnaire survey of experts. These include economic instability, quality of project planning, experience of the estimating team, and accuracy of bidding documents. The study develops an artificial neural network model to predict cost variance based on these factors. Testing shows the model can predict cost variance with 80% accuracy. It recommends construction parties consider the 12 identified factors when preparing cost estimates and allow for contingency based on economic conditions and project location. Further research expanding the model to different project types and using more structured cost data is suggested.
Factor Affecting Construction Cost and Time in road projectIRJET Journal
This document discusses factors that affect construction cost and time overruns in road projects. It analyzes data collected from literature reviews and questionnaires distributed to experts on 22 construction sites. 50 factors were identified and grouped into 7 categories: consultant, material, labor, client, equipment, contractor, and external. The factors were ranked using a fuzzy methodology based on expert opinions. The top 3 factor groups that affect cost and time were equipment, labor, and client-related. Within these, the individual top 5 factors were late equipment delivery, weather effects, high labor costs, labor shortages, and high machinery costs. Analyzing these critical factors can help minimize time and cost overruns in road construction projects.
Modeling final costs of iraqi public school projectsGafel Kareem
The document describes a study that uses artificial neural networks to model and predict the final costs of Iraqi public school construction projects. Researchers collected data from 65 completed school projects and identified 9 influential parameters to use as inputs for the neural network model, including accepted bid price, estimated cost, contractor rank, and number of bidders. The model was able to predict final costs with a correlation of 91% and accuracy of 99.98% when validated on data not used in training. The study aims to improve early cost estimation for school projects and reduce cost overruns.
The final cost of public school building projects, like other construction projects, is unknown
to the owner till the account closure. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is used in an attempt to
predict the final cost of two story (12 classes) school projects under lowest bid system of award
before work starts. A database of (65) school projects records completed in (2007-2012) are used to
develop and verify the ANN model. Based on expert opinions, nine out of eleven parameters are
considered to have the most significant impact on the magnitude of final cost. Hence they are used as
model inputs while the output of the model is going to be the final cost (FC). These parameters are;
accepted bid price, average bid price, estimated cost, contractor rank, supervising engineer
experience, project location, number of bidders, year of contracting, and contractual duration. It was
found that ANN has the ability to predict the final cost for school projects with very good degree of
accuracy having a coefficient of correlation (R) of (91%), and an average accuracy percentage of
(99.98%).
This document discusses using an artificial neural network (ANN) to model and predict the final costs of Iraqi public school construction projects. It begins by outlining the research objectives, justification, and hypotheses. The research methodology included collecting data from 65 completed school projects, developing an ANN model using Neuframe software, and evaluating the model. Experts identified 9 important parameters to use as inputs to the ANN model, including accepted bid price, estimated cost, contractor rank, and project location. The ANN model was able to accurately predict final costs for new projects, with a correlation of 91% between predicted and actual costs. This shows promise for using ANN to improve cost estimating efficiency for public school projects in Iraq.
Systematic Study of Factors Causing Cost Overrun and Delay in Pune Metro Line...ijtsrd
To sketchily identify the major causes of delays on construction of Pune metro line I project the major causes of delays from this research study were investigated following data collection carried out through a questionnaire survey with a wide range of construction professionals based in Metro Projects. The findings from this research determined the major causes of delays based on an relative importance index, and the main conclusions from output of the data could help the construction sector to better assess not only the major causes of delays on construction of metro projects but also how to minimize and mitigate the risks involved. The construction industry which supplements the second largest job in India after agriculture industry is also generates construction waste which impacts environment in the form of soil contamination, water contamination, and deterioration of landscape. It is well well known fact that most railway construction projects showing the delay in timeline or cost overrun or both of them. This phenomenon may distress the progress of infrastructure in the country as well as may risk many contracting firms profit margin. This study was supported out based on literature review and a semi structured survey that was acquired from competent people from contracting companies, consultants and stakeholders of Pune metro project, and to understand the top factors delaying the time line of railway metro projects analysis has been carried out by RII method. By analysis it has been find out that top three factors responsible for delay are Land Acquisition, Covid 19 pandemic and Shortage of skilled workforce which clearly represent the importance of land acquisition role in infrastructure projects like metro projects and the scarcity of skilled workforce also plays a substantial role in delay of project. Ramkrushn Kalbaji Shinde | Dr. Sandhya Kashinath Swami "Systematic Study of Factors Causing Cost Overrun and Delay in Pune Metro Line Project by using Relative Importance Index (RII) Method" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-7 | Issue-2 , April 2023, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com.com/papers/ijtsrd56256.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com.com/other-scientific-research-area/other/56256/systematic-study-of-factors-causing-cost-overrun-and-delay-in-pune-metro-line-project-by-using-relative-importance-index-rii-method/ramkrushn-kalbaji-shinde
Senstivity Analysis of Project Scheduling using Fuzzy Set TheoryIRJET Journal
This document discusses using fuzzy set theory to analyze delays in construction project scheduling. It presents fuzzy logic as an approach to estimate delays using linguistic values for factors like weather (good, medium, bad) and labor experience (high, medium, low). These membership values can help determine the total effect on project duration from different reasons. This technique allows understanding total delay through critical path method and program evaluation review technique. The main advantage is this approach can be implemented in existing computer programs for project scheduling to consider delays from external factors.
The document describes research developing an artificial neural network model to predict construction costs for expressway projects in Iraq. Data on past expressway projects was collected from the Stat Commission for Roads and Bridges in Iraq. A neural network model was built and trained on this data. The model was able to predict total construction costs with 90% accuracy based on correlation and an average accuracy of 89% compared to actual costs. The model performance was found to be relatively insensitive to the number of hidden layers, momentum term, and learning rate.
This document describes a model called the Indiana Highway Economic Evaluation Model (IHEEM) that was developed to provide the Indiana Department of Transportation with a uniform methodology for conducting economic analyses of highway investment projects. IHEEM uses a life-cycle benefit-cost analysis approach to evaluate projects. It incorporates both deterministic and probabilistic analyses. The model calculates agency costs and user benefits over an analysis period to determine metrics like net present value and benefit-cost ratio. An example application analyzing a highway expansion project is provided to demonstrate IHEEM's capabilities.
IRJET- Fluid Dynamics Simulation of a Car Spoiler for Drag Reduction and to I...IRJET Journal
This document summarizes a research paper that models risks in road construction projects in Egypt. The researchers developed a questionnaire with 40 risk factors identified from previous studies. They analyzed responses from the questionnaire using SPSS software to create a risk assessment model for road construction projects in Egypt. They also monitored risks on 10 real estate road construction projects. Their analysis found that the risk assessment model accurately predicted that 95.4% of the projects would be completed on schedule and budget.
Forecasting the final cost of iraqi public school projects using regression a...Gafel Kareem
This study aimed to develop a regression model to predict the final costs of Iraqi public school construction projects based on factors collected before work starts. Records from 65 completed school projects awarded between 2007-2012 were analyzed. Nine key factors thought to influence final cost were identified from expert surveys, including awarded bid price, average bid price, estimated cost, contractor rank, engineer experience, project location, number of bidders, contract year, and duration. A regression model was developed using these factors and was found to accurately predict final costs of school projects with a correlation coefficient of 93%, determination coefficient of 86.5%, and average accuracy of 92.02%.
Similar to Conceptual Cost Estimate of Libyan Highway Projects Using Artificial Neural Network (20)
Comparative analysis between traditional aquaponics and reconstructed aquapon...bijceesjournal
The aquaponic system of planting is a method that does not require soil usage. It is a method that only needs water, fish, lava rocks (a substitute for soil), and plants. Aquaponic systems are sustainable and environmentally friendly. Its use not only helps to plant in small spaces but also helps reduce artificial chemical use and minimizes excess water use, as aquaponics consumes 90% less water than soil-based gardening. The study applied a descriptive and experimental design to assess and compare conventional and reconstructed aquaponic methods for reproducing tomatoes. The researchers created an observation checklist to determine the significant factors of the study. The study aims to determine the significant difference between traditional aquaponics and reconstructed aquaponics systems propagating tomatoes in terms of height, weight, girth, and number of fruits. The reconstructed aquaponics system’s higher growth yield results in a much more nourished crop than the traditional aquaponics system. It is superior in its number of fruits, height, weight, and girth measurement. Moreover, the reconstructed aquaponics system is proven to eliminate all the hindrances present in the traditional aquaponics system, which are overcrowding of fish, algae growth, pest problems, contaminated water, and dead fish.
Redefining brain tumor segmentation: a cutting-edge convolutional neural netw...IJECEIAES
Medical image analysis has witnessed significant advancements with deep learning techniques. In the domain of brain tumor segmentation, the ability to
precisely delineate tumor boundaries from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)
scans holds profound implications for diagnosis. This study presents an ensemble convolutional neural network (CNN) with transfer learning, integrating
the state-of-the-art Deeplabv3+ architecture with the ResNet18 backbone. The
model is rigorously trained and evaluated, exhibiting remarkable performance
metrics, including an impressive global accuracy of 99.286%, a high-class accuracy of 82.191%, a mean intersection over union (IoU) of 79.900%, a weighted
IoU of 98.620%, and a Boundary F1 (BF) score of 83.303%. Notably, a detailed comparative analysis with existing methods showcases the superiority of
our proposed model. These findings underscore the model’s competence in precise brain tumor localization, underscoring its potential to revolutionize medical
image analysis and enhance healthcare outcomes. This research paves the way
for future exploration and optimization of advanced CNN models in medical
imaging, emphasizing addressing false positives and resource efficiency.
A review on techniques and modelling methodologies used for checking electrom...nooriasukmaningtyas
The proper function of the integrated circuit (IC) in an inhibiting electromagnetic environment has always been a serious concern throughout the decades of revolution in the world of electronics, from disjunct devices to today’s integrated circuit technology, where billions of transistors are combined on a single chip. The automotive industry and smart vehicles in particular, are confronting design issues such as being prone to electromagnetic interference (EMI). Electronic control devices calculate incorrect outputs because of EMI and sensors give misleading values which can prove fatal in case of automotives. In this paper, the authors have non exhaustively tried to review research work concerned with the investigation of EMI in ICs and prediction of this EMI using various modelling methodologies and measurement setups.
Batteries -Introduction – Types of Batteries – discharging and charging of battery - characteristics of battery –battery rating- various tests on battery- – Primary battery: silver button cell- Secondary battery :Ni-Cd battery-modern battery: lithium ion battery-maintenance of batteries-choices of batteries for electric vehicle applications.
Fuel Cells: Introduction- importance and classification of fuel cells - description, principle, components, applications of fuel cells: H2-O2 fuel cell, alkaline fuel cell, molten carbonate fuel cell and direct methanol fuel cells.
ACEP Magazine edition 4th launched on 05.06.2024Rahul
This document provides information about the third edition of the magazine "Sthapatya" published by the Association of Civil Engineers (Practicing) Aurangabad. It includes messages from current and past presidents of ACEP, memories and photos from past ACEP events, information on life time achievement awards given by ACEP, and a technical article on concrete maintenance, repairs and strengthening. The document highlights activities of ACEP and provides a technical educational article for members.
CHINA’S GEO-ECONOMIC OUTREACH IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES AND FUTURE PROSPECTjpsjournal1
The rivalry between prominent international actors for dominance over Central Asia's hydrocarbon
reserves and the ancient silk trade route, along with China's diplomatic endeavours in the area, has been
referred to as the "New Great Game." This research centres on the power struggle, considering
geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic variables. Topics including trade, political hegemony, oil
politics, and conventional and nontraditional security are all explored and explained by the researcher.
Using Mackinder's Heartland, Spykman Rimland, and Hegemonic Stability theories, examines China's role
in Central Asia. This study adheres to the empirical epistemological method and has taken care of
objectivity. This study analyze primary and secondary research documents critically to elaborate role of
china’s geo economic outreach in central Asian countries and its future prospect. China is thriving in trade,
pipeline politics, and winning states, according to this study, thanks to important instruments like the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Belt and Road Economic Initiative. According to this study,
China is seeing significant success in commerce, pipeline politics, and gaining influence on other
governments. This success may be attributed to the effective utilisation of key tools such as the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation and the Belt and Road Economic Initiative.
Using recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) for pavements is crucial to achieving sustainability. Implementing RCA for new pavement can minimize carbon footprint, conserve natural resources, reduce harmful emissions, and lower life cycle costs. Compared to natural aggregate (NA), RCA pavement has fewer comprehensive studies and sustainability assessments.
Harnessing WebAssembly for Real-time Stateless Streaming PipelinesChristina Lin
Traditionally, dealing with real-time data pipelines has involved significant overhead, even for straightforward tasks like data transformation or masking. However, in this talk, we’ll venture into the dynamic realm of WebAssembly (WASM) and discover how it can revolutionize the creation of stateless streaming pipelines within a Kafka (Redpanda) broker. These pipelines are adept at managing low-latency, high-data-volume scenarios.
Using recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) for pavements is crucial to achieving sustainability. Implementing RCA for new pavement can minimize carbon footprint, conserve natural resources, reduce harmful emissions, and lower life cycle costs. Compared to natural aggregate (NA), RCA pavement has fewer comprehensive studies and sustainability assessments.
TIME DIVISION MULTIPLEXING TECHNIQUE FOR COMMUNICATION SYSTEMHODECEDSIET
Time Division Multiplexing (TDM) is a method of transmitting multiple signals over a single communication channel by dividing the signal into many segments, each having a very short duration of time. These time slots are then allocated to different data streams, allowing multiple signals to share the same transmission medium efficiently. TDM is widely used in telecommunications and data communication systems.
### How TDM Works
1. **Time Slots Allocation**: The core principle of TDM is to assign distinct time slots to each signal. During each time slot, the respective signal is transmitted, and then the process repeats cyclically. For example, if there are four signals to be transmitted, the TDM cycle will divide time into four slots, each assigned to one signal.
2. **Synchronization**: Synchronization is crucial in TDM systems to ensure that the signals are correctly aligned with their respective time slots. Both the transmitter and receiver must be synchronized to avoid any overlap or loss of data. This synchronization is typically maintained by a clock signal that ensures time slots are accurately aligned.
3. **Frame Structure**: TDM data is organized into frames, where each frame consists of a set of time slots. Each frame is repeated at regular intervals, ensuring continuous transmission of data streams. The frame structure helps in managing the data streams and maintaining the synchronization between the transmitter and receiver.
4. **Multiplexer and Demultiplexer**: At the transmitting end, a multiplexer combines multiple input signals into a single composite signal by assigning each signal to a specific time slot. At the receiving end, a demultiplexer separates the composite signal back into individual signals based on their respective time slots.
### Types of TDM
1. **Synchronous TDM**: In synchronous TDM, time slots are pre-assigned to each signal, regardless of whether the signal has data to transmit or not. This can lead to inefficiencies if some time slots remain empty due to the absence of data.
2. **Asynchronous TDM (or Statistical TDM)**: Asynchronous TDM addresses the inefficiencies of synchronous TDM by allocating time slots dynamically based on the presence of data. Time slots are assigned only when there is data to transmit, which optimizes the use of the communication channel.
### Applications of TDM
- **Telecommunications**: TDM is extensively used in telecommunication systems, such as in T1 and E1 lines, where multiple telephone calls are transmitted over a single line by assigning each call to a specific time slot.
- **Digital Audio and Video Broadcasting**: TDM is used in broadcasting systems to transmit multiple audio or video streams over a single channel, ensuring efficient use of bandwidth.
- **Computer Networks**: TDM is used in network protocols and systems to manage the transmission of data from multiple sources over a single network medium.
### Advantages of TDM
- **Efficient Use of Bandwidth**: TDM all
Conceptual Cost Estimate of Libyan Highway Projects Using Artificial Neural Network
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Conceptual Cost Estimate of Libyan Highway Projects Using Artificial Neural Network Emad Elbeltagi1, Ossama Hosny2, Refaat Abdel-Razek3 and Atif El-Fitory4 1Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University 2Construction and Architectural Engineering Department, The American University in Cairo 3Construction Engineering and Utilities Department, Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University 4Graduate Student, Construction Department, Arab Academy for Science and Technology, Cairo Abstract It is well known that decisions at early stages of a construction project have great impact on subsequent project performance. Conceptual cost estimate is a challenging task that is done with limited information at the early stages of a project life where many factors affecting the project costs are still unknown. The objective of this paper is to support decision makers in predicting the conceptual cost of highway construction projects in Libya. Initially, the factors that significantly influence highway construction are identified. Then, an artificial neural network model is developed for predicting the cost. The network is trained and tested with a total of 67 projects historical data. Training of the model is administered via back-propagation algorithm. The model is coded ad implemented using MATLAB® to facilitate its use. An optimization module is also added to the Neural Network model with the objective of minimizing the error of the predicted cost. The model is then validated and the results show better predictions of conceptual cost of highway projects in Libya. Keywords: Construction, Conceptual cost estimating, Neural Networks, Highway projects, Libya.
I. INTRODUCTION
Conceptual cost estimate is one of the most important activities to be performed during the project planning phase. It includes the determination of the project’s total costs based only on general early concepts of the project [Kan 2002]. Like all other planning activities, conceptual cost estimating is a challenging task. This is due to the availability of limited information at the early stages of a project where many factors affecting the project costs are still unknown. Highways construction cost depends on many factors. The identification and selection of those factors that may be used to describe a project and define/affect its cost is an essential task. Such factors must be measurable for any new highway project that is required to estimate its’ conceptual cost. Accordingly, it is necessary to determine the cost estimating relationships in terms of the selected factors. A parametric cost estimate is one that uses Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) and associated mathematical algorithms (or logic) to establish cost estimates [Hegazy and Ayed 1998]. Traditionally, cost estimating relationships are developed by applying regression analysis to historical project information. Regression analysis is a good method of determining the relationship between the project factors and cost, and determining the appropriate mathematical form for the model [Hegazy and Ayed 1998].
Several efforts have been done to develop models for parametric cost estimation using traditional techniques. Trost and Oberlender [2003] developed a model named the Estimate Score Procedure to enable the project team to make a score for an estimate and predict its accuracy based on that score. Forty Five drivers were selected to measure the accuracy of the cost estimate. Using factor analysis and multivariate regression analysis these factors were grouped into eleven orthogonal factors. A computer model was developed to automate the procedure. Five of the eleven factors were identified by the multivariate regression analysis to be significant. David et al. [2006] developed a linear regression model to predict the construction cost of buildings and concluded that the best regression model gives a mean absolute percentage error of 19.3%. Martin and Thomas [2002] developed a method for calculating the variance of total project cost based on standardized component costs for a set of database for Public School projects. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), as one of the artificial intelligence techniques, has been extensively used for cost estimate. ANN presents itself as an approach of computation and decision making that may potentially resolve some of the major drawbacks of traditional estimating techniques. It holds a great promise for rendering the parametric method of cost estimating which is a reliable and reasonably accurate way to prepare cost estimates [Ayed 1997].
RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS
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Several studies in the literature have used ANNs for parametric cost estimate in Highway construction. Adeli and Wu [1998] formulated a regularization ANN model and presented neural network architecture to estimate highway construction costs. The model was applied on reinforced concrete pavements. It was based on slid mathematical formulation that made the estimate more reliable and predictable. Hegazy and Ayed [1998] also developed an ANN for parametric cost estimation of highway projects. They used spreadsheet program as a media for implementing their developed ANN model. On another research effort, an ANN model was developed to estimate the percentage increase in the cost of a typical highway project from a baseline reference estimate [Al-Tabtabai et al. 1999]. In this study, they considered several factors such as environmental, company specific and other factors that may affect the increase in cost. The model measured the combined effect of those factors and the percentage change on expected cost. Georgy and Barsoum [2005] developed an ANN model for parametric cost estimation of school construction projects in Egypt. They employed both statistical methods and ANNs for estimating construction costs and concluded that a single 3-layer ANN that has number of neurons in the hidden layer equal to two thirds of the number of neurons in the input layer, produce optimum results. Hosny [2006] developed an ANN model for predicting increase in time and cost of construction projects in Egypt based on several influential factors such as: project type, contract type, owner behavior, design completeness, cost/time rate and others. Gaber et al. [1992] developed an ANN for assessing the risk in industrial projects. Several factors were considered and results showed that the potential benefit of using ANN in accessing risks for industrial projects. The motivation for this study is the limited research in the area of conceptual cost estimating, especially for the highway construction industry in Libya, and the need for a better conceptual cost estimating methodology and tools. The paper aims at developing a neural network model for predicting the conceptual cost for highway projects in Libya. The details of the model development are presented along with its implementation procedures.
II. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
In order to achieve the objective of this study, a three-step research methodology is adopted: First, identifying the main factors that affect cost estimating of highway projects in Libya. This is achieved through reviewing the literature related to highway projects. Then, developing a questionnaire survey to identify the most important factors on the conceptual cost estimate of highway projects in Libya; second, collecting relevant data corresponding to the important factors identified in the previous step from previously completed highway projects; third, designing an ANN model for estimating the conceptual cost in the early stages of highway projects. The developed model is then tested for obtaining the best-possible network configuration. These steps are presented in the following sections.
III. FACTORS IDENTIFICATION AND DATA COLLECTION
3.1 Questionnaire Survey Reviewing the literature revealed a list of 18 factors to be considered as the most influential on parametric cost estimate of highway projects [Hegazy and Ayed 1998, Al-Tabtabai et al. 1999, Wilmot and Bing 2005, Jui et al. 2005, and Nassar et al. 2005]. Having identified these factors as shown in Table 1, a questionnaire survey is designed to rank these factors based on their effect on parametric cost estimate of Libyan highway projects. The 18 factors were grouped into three categories: project-specific factors, project participants’ factors, and environmental factors. The designed questionnaire was distributed among 90 Architectural/Engineering (A/E) firms. These A/E firms are authorized from the Libyan Engineers Syndicate (85 private + 5 public) working in the western district of Libya. The questionnaire was also given to the secretarial of housing and utilities, the secretarial of transportations and communications, and the chairman of the savings and real-estate investment bank. The questionnaire Participants were from different parties, including: owners, general managers, contract administrators, project managers, financial managers and cost estimators working on Libyan highway industry. Agencies such as, secretarial of housing and utilities, secretarial of transportations and communications are the main supervisor of the highway construction in Libya. Participants are asked to indicate the importance of each factor, which should be considered during preparing preliminary estimate. Each participant was asked to give a weight from zero to 100 for each factor based on its influence on the preliminary cost estimate of highway construction. A weight of zero means that the corresponding factor has no effect while a weight of 100 means that the factor extremely affects the cost. Participants were also asked to suggest other factors that are not listed in the questionnaire, and may affect the preliminary cost of the project. 3.2 Questionnaire Analysis
Among the 90-surveys that were sent to participants only 61-survey were returned, giving a response rate of approximately 68%. The participants’ responses received were tabulated and
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analyzed individually. The average experience for all respondents is 15 years, and the average annual work
Table 1: Factors Affecting Construction Cost of Highway Projects in Libya
size they were involved in is 5,000,000 Libyan Dinar
(LYD). The survey showed that a conceptual
estimate is prepared based on experience and there is
no tool used to assist estimators performing their job.
As shown in Fig. 1, 39% and 28% of the
respondents are senior personnel and managers
respectively. Their experience was reflected in the
level of completeness, consistency and precision of
the information provided, which provides further
validity for the survey results.
Figure 1: Respondents Classification
The importance index (reflects the effect of a specific
factor on cost estimate) is calculated according to the
rating scale of each factor which is estimated by each
respondent according to their experience as stated in
Eq. 1. The importance index for each factor is
calculated as [Dutta 2006]:
i i i Importance Index ( v f ) n [1]
Where: vi = rating of each factors (0 - 100%).
fi = frequency of responses.
n = total number of responses.
No. Factor description
Importance
index
Considered
factors
1 Project type (freeway, artery, local, others) 94.26 *
2 Construction of detours (Many detours difficult to build, few &
easy to build, normal, none)
91.39 *
3 Project location 81.56 *
4 Year of project construction 78.28 *
5 Project scope (new, rehabilitate, others) 76.23 *
6 Size of project (Length in Km) 73.36 *
7 Project capacity (1-lane, 2-lanes, 2-lanes divided, others) 72.95 *
8 Project duration (/day) 67.21 *
9 Construction season (winter, summer, fall, spring) 61.07 *
10 Soil Type (Rocky, mixed, clay, sand, others) 57.38 *
11 Financial condition (Highly unfavorable, Unfavorable [no regular
payments], Favorable [regular payments], Highly favorable (reg.
Pay.& good finance)
55.66 *
12 Hauling distance (i.e., transporting material & equipment) 44.67
13 Pavement thickness 40.98
14 Water body 40.16
15 Preservation of utilities 39.75
16 Cost escalation (i.e., Rate of inflation) 25.82
17 Type of consultant (Performance, degree of cooperation) 23.77
18 Contractor performance/Interest 22.13
Owner/Vice-President/General
Manager
(24) 39%
Estimating Supervisor
(9) 15%
Project
Manager
(11)
18%
Manager (Engineering/Contracts)
(17) 28%
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The eighteen factors mentioned above were
ranked according to their importance to construction
cost of highway projects in Libya as shown in Table
1. Factors with Importance Index smaller than 50%
were omitted. Accordingly, eleven factors were
considered as the most influential factors for cost
estimate of Libyan highway projects. These factors
are marked with asterisks as shown in Table 1.
3.3 Data Collection
Having identified the main factors affecting cost
estimate in Libyan highway industry, the next step is
to collect data relevant to these factors from previous
highway projects constructed in Libya. Accordingly,
another questionnaire is prepared to collect data
relevant to these eleven factors. The questionnaire is
distributed to 125 contractors. Personal contact was
the major communication tool used to get
contractors’ organization to participate in this study.
The interviewees were mostly construction managers
and project administrators. A total of 91 contractors
have responded and participated in this research
which represents almost a 73% response rate.
Data were collected from 91 projects constructed
during the period from year 1989 to year 2006.
Figure 2 shows the distribution of the 91 projects. It
is noticed that 68% of the projects were constructed
during the period from year 2002 to year 2005. The
91 projects are classified as: 13% freeways, 25%
rural roads, 34% artery, and 28% local roads. By
examining the collected data of the 91 projects, it is
found that some projects have some data missed and
others have similar data. Accordingly, twenty-four
projects were removed, leaving only 67 projects for
further use by the ANN. Most of these projects are
constructed in three major areas in Libya namely: El-
Zawia, Sorman, and Abo-Esa.
1 1 2
4
7
3
2
5
20
13
17
12
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
1989
1990
1991
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
No. of Project
Figure 2: Distribution of the 91 Projects over the
1989-2006 Period
3.4 Time and Location Adjustment of Collected
Data
One of the collected data for the 91 projects is
the project actual cost. As this cost may be affected
by the project location or the construction year,
therefore, this cost is adjusted for both the time and
location for consistency. Also, when estimating the
cost of a new project, it is necessary to adjust the
predicted cost according to the location and time for
the project.
Adjustment for time represents the relative
inflation or deflation of costs with respect to time due
to factors such as labor rates, material costs, interest
rates, etc. [Peurifoy and Oberlender 2002]. The
inflation rate for seven years from year 2001 to year
2007 published by the Libyan National Authority for
Information are used to adjust the cost of the projects
data and later on the predicted cost of a new project.
As 68% of the projects were constructed during the
period from year 2002 to year 2005, the average
inflation rate were calculated and used to adjust all
the cost data collected to the year 2005. The unit cost
at any year n is calculated as follows:
2 n Unit cost LYD/m Given unit cost 1i [2]
Where: i is the average inflation rate for the period
(from year 2005 to the current year); n is the number
of years from 2005 to the current year.
Similarly, an adjustment is needed for the
difference in location of the used project. The
adjustment represents the relative difference in costs
of materials, equipment, and labor with respect to the
two locations [Peurifoy and Oberlender 2002]. The
Secretarial of Housing and Utilities and Secretarial of
Transportations which are the main owners of the
highway projects in Libya categorized Libya to four
areas. This categorization is based on the political
circumstances and construction cost. The two
secretariats allow a bonus ratio that differs for each of
the four areas. The bonus ratio is the extra amount
that can be added to the construction cost. Using this
bonus ratio, all the collected cost data are scaled back
to El-Zawia zone (42.3 % of the projects were
constructed at El-Zawia zone). The highway unit cost
for any location is calculated as follows:
B
A
Actualunit cost for that city
Unit cost in a givencity LYD/m2
[3]
Where: A is the bonus ratio for a given city; B is the
bonus ratio for El-Zawia (Since it the base city for
the model).
IV. NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR
PARAMETRIC COST STIMATING
Having identified the main factors that affect the
cost estimate of highway projects in Libya and
collected the relevant data, an ANN model is
developed that uses these factors as the inputs and the
adjusted cost as the output. The major strength of
ANNs is their ability to learn from examples and to
generalize that knowledge to novel cases. Using an
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appropriately configured ANN model and a sufficient
set of past completed highway projects, an ANN
model would be able to arrive at accurate forecasts of
the cost of a new construction highway project.
Based on this concept, the development of the ANN
model proceeded in four phases: design phase,
preliminary implementation phase, refinement phase,
and validation phase. The design phase addresses the
preliminary planning of the ANN model and its
variable representation. The preliminary
implementation phase entails the preliminary
configuration and training of the ANN model and
testing for proper functioning. Then, the refinement
phase concerns the changing of the model parameters
for improved performance and increased accuracy in
cost prediction. Finally, the validation phase
addresses the final validation of the developed model.
Figure 3: Typical Structure of Multi-Layer ANN
4.1 Design Phase
The first step of designing the ANN model is to
identify the data representation scheme for each input
and output variable, as shown in Table 1. This is
entirely dependent on the nature of each factor. Some
factors, such as project size and project duration,
have numerical nature and thus represented by their
corresponding numerical values. Other factors have
linguistic or non-numerical nature, such as project
type, project location, and so forth. These factors are
represented through equivalent numerical values. For
example, the project type has been represented using
numerical values as: Highways (1), rural roads (2),
artery roads (3) and local roads (4). Configuring the
ANN is a complex and dynamic process that requires
the determination of the internal structure and rules
(i.e., network architecture, learning algorithm, the
number of hidden layers and neurons in each
layer…etc.). In this study, the multilayer feed-forward
back-propagation neural networks are
utilized as they are suitable for modeling the
nonlinear mapping type of problems [Hegazy and
Ayed 1998]. Figure (3) shows a typical architecture
of multilayer feed-forward neural networks with an
input layer, an output layer, and one hidden layer.
As shown in Fig. (3), the artificial neurons are
arranged in layers, and all the neurons in each layer
have connections to all the neurons in the next layer.
Associated with each connection between these
artificial neurons, a weight value (wi) so that the total
of i inputs (xi) to the single neuron is:
[4]
i
i i input w x b
Where: b is the connection weight associated with a
bias node having input value = 1.
This input passes through an activation function
to produce the values of yi of the hidden layer(s) or Oi
of the output layer. The activation function may have
many forms. The most familiar and effective form is
the sigmoid function [Seleemah 2005], defined as:
[5]
1 e
1
O
α input
xp
utput
Where: α is a constant that typically varies between
0.01 and 1.00.
Signals are received at the input layer, pass
through the hidden layers, and reach the output layer,
producing the output of the network. The learning
process primarily involves the determination of
connection weights and bias matrices and the pattern
of connections. It is through the presentation of
examples, or training cases, and application of the
learning rule that the neural network obtains the
relationship embedded in the data.
In this study the neural networks were designed
to have an input layer that consists of eleven input
nodes representing the most important factors that
affect the cost estimate of highway projects. These
factors are: project type, construction of detours,
project location, year of project construction, project
scope, project size, project capacity, project duration,
construction season, soil type and financial condition.
The output layer consists of one node representing
the unit cost of a highway project construction.
An important factor that can significantly
influence the ability of a network to learn and
generalize is the number of patterns in the training
………
Hidden layer
Input layer
Output layer
…..
x1
x2
x3
xi
Bias nodes
Weights
w
Weights u
y1
y2
y3
y4
y5
yi
Oi
wi
b
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and testing sets. Although it takes longer time to train
a network, using higher number of training patterns
increases the ability of the network to learn and
achieve more accurate results. Günaydın and Doğan
[2004] state that there are no acceptable generalized
rules to determine the size of the training data for
suitable training. However, having a total of 67 data
patterns; it was decided to use 75% of the data (50
projects) for training, 15% of the data (10 projects)
for testing, and 10% (seven projects) for validation.
These sets were randomly selected and extracted
from the data.
4.2 Input and Output Data Normalization
Data are generally normalized for effective
training of the model being developed. The
normalization of the data is the scaling of the input
and output pairs within the range (-1, 1) or the range
(0, 1) depending on the processing function. It is used
to allow the squashing of the values to improve the
network performance [Hegazy et al. 1994].
Furthermore, the neural networks usually provide
improved performance when the data lie within the
range (0, 1) [Seleemah 2005]. Because a sigmoid
function is used, a slow rate of learning occurs near
the end points of the sigmoid function. To avoid this,
all input values and associated outputs for this study
are transformed to values within the range (-1, 1) by
using the (Max Min processing) method. The Max
Min processing function used to modify the data as
follow [Hegazy and Ayed 1998]:
1 [6]
( . . )
2 ( . )
Max value Minvalu
Originalvalue Minvalue
Scaled value
Where, Max. value and Min. value are the maximum
and minimum data values within a specific data set.
4.3 ANN Structure
One important issue of multilayer feed-forward
ANNs is to determine the appropriate number of
hidden layers and the number of neurons in each
layer. This process is done through trial and error.
There is no unique solution for representation
schemes. Different ANNs can produce similar results
with the same set of training data [Seleemah 2005].
Hegazy et al. (1994) heuristically suggest that the
number of hidden nodes may be set as one-half of the
total input and output nodes. Sodikov and Student
(2005), on the other hand, suggest that the minimum
number of hidden nodes can be more than or equal to
(p-1)/(n+2), where p is the number of the training
examples and n is the number of the inputs of the
networks. In their study, an iterative process is used
of increasing the number of nodes in one and two
hidden layers till the network reaches its desired
performance.
Also, it is important to determine which training
procedure to adopt. There are many alternative
paradigms to choose from. The back propagation
algorithm which belongs to the realm of supervised
learning rule is the most widely used training
technique for problems similar to the current study
[Günaydın and Doğan 2004, Seleemah 2005 and
Hegazy and Ayed 1998]. Accordingly, the back-propagation
learning algorithm (supervised training)
is used to perform the training requirements and to
construct the current model.
4.4 ANN Training and Refinement
While an initial ANN model for parametric cost
estimate of highway projects has been developed, this
model needs refinement to reach the optimum
performance. For a systematic implementation of the
refinement phase, a parametric analysis of several
ANN parameters is conducted. This include
parameters such as training function, learning
function, number of hidden layers, and number of
nodes in hidden layer. The optimum performance
presumably provides minimum error for the resulting
output. This is calculated through the mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE) as follows:
100
Predicted
Actual Predicted
n
1
MAPE
n
i 1 i
i i
[7]
Where: i is the project number; n: is the total number
of training or testing data set; Actuali: is the actual
unit cost. Predictedi: is the unit cost obtained from
the ANN.
The MAPE of each group of training cases is
called "Training", and the MAPE for testing cases is
called "Testing". Then, the average MAPE for
training and testing is called "Average".
Different transfer functions (Tansig, Logsig,
Purelin), different learning function (TRAINBFG,
TRAINCGB, TRAINLM, TRAINCGF, TRAINCGP,
TRAINGDM, TRAINGDA, ….etc.) and different
network structures (ANN 11-5-1, ANN 11-7-1, ANN
11-5-6-1, … etc.) have been experimented with. A
network labeled ANN 11-5-1 means that the network
has an input layer of 11 neurons, one hidden layer
with 5 neurons and an output layer of one neuron.
Also, an ANN 11-5-6-1 means that the network has
an input layer of 11 neurons, two hidden layers
containing 5 and 6 neurons in layers 1 and 2,
respectively and an output layer of one neuron. The
results of these experiments are illustrated in Figs. 4,
5 and 6.
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Figure 4: The MAPE Using Different Transfer Function Figure 5: The MAPE Using Different Learning Function Figure 6: The MAPE Using Different Network Topology
Based on the parametric analysis, the following set of conclusions is found regarding the performance of the ANN model:
- Based on the calculated MAPE for several transfer functions such as: TANSIG, LOGSIG, and PURELIN as shows in Fig. 4, It is found that the "TANSIG" transfer function for both hidden
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and output layers produced a minimum MAPE
for training phase of 3.1%, for testing phase of
9.32%, and a total average error of 6.21%.
Accordingly, the "TANSIG" transfer function is
used during this study.
- Based on the calculated MAPE for several
training functions (such as: TRAINBFG,
TRAINCGB, TRAINGDM, and Levenberg-
Marquardt (TRAINLM) as shows in Fig. 5), the
"TRAINLM" function produced minimum
MAPE of 6.21%. Therefore the "TRAINLM"
algorithm is selected as the training function of
the ANN model in the current study.
- The best performance is achieved with a network
consisting of: one input layer with 11 neurons;
two hidden layers, the first with 5 neurons and
the second with 30 neurons and an output layer
with one neuron, as shows in Fig. 6.
Accordingly, the ANN is trained using 50 data
sets (projects), and then tested using 10 data sets
(projects). The calculated average MAPE is 0.034%
for the training phase, 3.058% for testing phase and
1.55% total average error, which represents an
acceptable error during the preliminary estimating
phase.
V. IMPLEMENTATION AND
VALIDATION
To facilitate the implementation process and the
use of the developed ANN model, a MATLAB®
program of multilayer neural network with one
output node is coded in a MATLAB® File. For
further system usability, a user-friendly interface for
the Parametric Cost Estimating (PCE) program (Fig.
7) is developed using MATLAB® graphical user
interface (GUI). This user interface is the way that
the program accepts instruction from user and
presents results. One important aspect of a practical
estimating system is to adapt it to new project
situations. This enables it to adjust its nature to
become more suited to the user's own work
environment. It also enables the buildup of
experience and incorporates new encounters into the
model. Initially, the user's historical project data is
entered into the PCE by clicking the "Add" button.
The user will be prompted to enter new project data
using the screen shown in Fig. (8). A module is
developed to transform the project data into
numerical data. When all data are entered, the
number of each project data can be seen in the top-left
pane of Fig. 7, where the user can select any
project to view, modify or delete. The user may view
or modify the data that was already entered before by
right clicking on any project number; then the
"Project Information" screen will pop up (Fig. 8) and
can be used to modify the data for the selected
project [El-Fitory 2008].
The "Re-Train" button becomes active after
modifying, adding or deleting any project. By
clicking the "Re-Train" button, the weight matrices
parameters are adjusted automatically according to
the new situation. The results are presented to the
user upon the completion of the training process on
the top-right pane as shown in Fig. (7). Once the
training process ends, the user can test the model
using the specified data by pressing the “Test”
button. Afterwards, the developed system could be
used to predict the cost estimate for a new project. By
selecting the "Project Estimation" button, the "Project
Information" screen (Fig. 8) pops-up for entering the
data of the new project. Once the data for the new
project is entered, the user will be prompted to enter
the inflation rate from the year 2005 to the current
year and to enter the bonus ration for the new
location. The inflation rate for time and the bonus
ratio for location adjustments are also integrated
within the developed program to adjust the predicted
unit cost for both time and location as described
earlier. The future unit cost estimate for future time
after n years from the year 2005 and for location A,
other than El-Zawia location, B, is calculated as
follows (i is the average inflation rate from year 2005
to the current year) [El-Fitory 2008]:
B
A
edicted unitcost 1 i
Futureunitcost LYD/m
n
2
Pr [8]
5.1 ANN Optimization
One important feature of the current
development is its ability to optimize the results to
get the minimum MAPE. The user has the ability to
shuffle the data by changing its arrangement in order
to minimize the MAPE. The user may click the
"Shuffle" button to shuffle all rows of data
placement, and then the “Re-train” button is used and
observes the value of MAPE for training and testing.
This step must be repeated many times to get the
optimum row arrangement for the projects. This
process may be very lengthy; therefore, the
optimization option is added. By clicking the
"Optimize" button (Fig. 7), the program starts
automatically doing multiple series of shuffling,
training, and testing in order to produce better results.
The user can manually stop this process when he/she
observes the improvement of the MAPE values
shown at the top-right pane of Fig. 7. This process
stops automatically when there is no more
improvement in the MAPE.
9. Emad Elbeltagi et al Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications www.ijera.com
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Figure7: Parametric Cost Estimating Program User Interface
Table 2: Percentage Error between Actual Unit Cost and Predicted Unit Cost
Project
number
Actual unit cost
(LYD/m2)
Pred. unit cots
(LYD/m2)
Percentage of
error
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
19.27
14.02
22.10
18.67
21.87
24.17
18.94
19.65
14.31
22.80
18.62
24.04
24.20
19.65
1.91
2.02
3.05
0.29
9.02
0.11
3.62
1. Average error 2.86%
5.2 ANN Model Validation
One of the most important steps in developing a
parametric cost model is to verify its accuracy and
validity [Dysert 2001]. The validation data should not
be used in the training and testing of the model. For
this purpose, seven projects are extracted from the 67
projects for validation. Accordingly, the ANN model
is used to forecast the unit cost of these seven
highway project based on predictions of the model
output given the input validation data. The predicted
unit costs computed are then compared to the actual
unit costs recorded by calculating the estimated error
to measure the performance of the network as
follows:
100
Predictedunit cost
(Actualunit cost Predictedunit cost)
Estimatederror(% )
[9]
The results show (Table 2) a good performance
of the developed ANN model where the calculated
MAPE is 2.86 %, which is less than 20% the typical
expected percent error for conceptual cost estimate
[Peurifoy and Oberlender 2002]. This validation
result proves the validity of the proposed model and
its ability to predict the unit cost of highway project
in Libya.
VI. CONCLUSIONS
The work presented in this paper aimed to
develop an accurate and practical method for
conceptual cost estimating that can be used by
organizations involved in the planning and execution
of highway construction projects in Libya. The
research identified eleven factors that significantly
influence the cost of constructing highway projects.
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The data used for the model development and validation were based on historical project data collected from 67 completed highway projects, constructed from year 2001 to year 2005 in Libya. The ANN model was designed with eleven neurons in the input layer. The output layer consists of one neuron representing the unit cost of highway construction project per square meter. The results obtained from the ANN model with two layers containing 5 neurons, and 30 neurons on the first and second layers, respectively, were consistent and gave values of predicted unit cost very close to the actual unit cost. The MAPE for the training phase is 0.034%, for the testing phase is 3.058% with total average error is 1.55%. The developed system also can be used to optimize the prediction of the ANN model by shuffling the input data and monitoring the improvements in the MAPE values. The model was validated and the results signify that it has captured the relations embedded in the trained data and in turn indicated better cost prediction of highway projects with a MAPE of 2.86%. In addition, the model provides a methodology to account for inflation and location adjustments. Fig. 8: Adding New Project Data Screen REFERENCES
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