The document describes research developing an artificial neural network model to predict construction costs for expressway projects in Iraq. Data on past expressway projects was collected from the Stat Commission for Roads and Bridges in Iraq. A neural network model was built and trained on this data. The model was able to predict total construction costs with 90% accuracy based on correlation and an average accuracy of 89% compared to actual costs. The model performance was found to be relatively insensitive to the number of hidden layers, momentum term, and learning rate.
The final cost of public school building projects, like other construction projects, is unknown
to the owner till the account closure. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is used in an attempt to
predict the final cost of two story (12 classes) school projects under lowest bid system of award
before work starts. A database of (65) school projects records completed in (2007-2012) are used to
develop and verify the ANN model. Based on expert opinions, nine out of eleven parameters are
considered to have the most significant impact on the magnitude of final cost. Hence they are used as
model inputs while the output of the model is going to be the final cost (FC). These parameters are;
accepted bid price, average bid price, estimated cost, contractor rank, supervising engineer
experience, project location, number of bidders, year of contracting, and contractual duration. It was
found that ANN has the ability to predict the final cost for school projects with very good degree of
accuracy having a coefficient of correlation (R) of (91%), and an average accuracy percentage of
(99.98%).
Construction Management (CM) has to deal with a variety of uncertainties related to Time, Cost, Quality, and Safety, to name a few. Such uncertainties make the entire construction process highly unpredictable. It, therefore, falls under the purview of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in which the given hazy information can be effectively interpreted in order to arrive at meaningful conclusions. This paper reviews the application of ANNs in construction activities related to the prediction of costs, risk, and safety, tender bids, as well as labor and equipment productivity. The review suggests that the ANN’s had been highly beneficial in correctly interpreting inadequate input information. It was seen that most of the investigators used the feed forward back propagation type of the network; however, if a single ANN architecture was found to be insufficient, then hybrid modeling in association with other machine learning tools such as genetic programming and support vector machines were much useful. It was however clear that the authenticity of data and experience of the modeler are important in obtaining good results.
Funding agencies such as the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of The National Academies make their online grant databases publicly available which document a variety of information on grants that have been funded over the past few decades. In this paper, based on a quantitative analysis of the TRB’s Research In Progress (RIP) online database, we explore the feasibility of automatically estimating the appropriate funding level, given the textual description of a transportation research project. We use statistical Text Mining (TM) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies to build this model using the 14,000 or more records of the TRB’s RIP research grants big data. Several Natural Language Processing (NLP) based text representation models such as the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI) and the Doc2Vec Machine Learning (ML) approach are used to vectorize the project descriptions and generate semantic vectors. Each of these representations is then used to train supervised regression models such as Random Forest (RF) regression. Out of the three latent feature generation models, we found LDA gives the least Mean Absolute Error (MAE) using 300 feature dimensions and RF regression model. However, based on the correlation coefficients, it was found that it is not very feasible to accurately predict the funding level directly from the unstructured project abstract, given the large variations in source agencies, subject areas, and funding levels. By using separate prediction models for different types of funding agencies, funding levels were better correlated with the project abstract.
Conceptual Cost Estimate of Libyan Highway Projects Using Artificial Neural N...IJERA Editor
It is well known that decisions at early stages of a construction project have great impact on subsequent project performance. Conceptual cost estimate is a challenging task that is done with limited information at the early stages of a project life where many factors affecting the project costs are still unknown. The objective of this paper is to support decision makers in predicting the conceptual cost of highway construction projects in Libya. Initially, the factors that significantly influence highway construction are identified. Then, an artificial neural network model is developed for predicting the cost. The network is trained and tested with a total of 67 projects historical data. Training of the model is administered via back-propagation algorithm. The model is coded ad implemented using MATLAB® to facilitate its use. An optimization module is also added to the Neural Network model with the objective of minimizing the error of the predicted cost. The model is then validated and the results show better predictions of conceptual cost of highway projects in Libya.
The final cost of public school building projects, like other construction projects, is unknown
to the owner till the account closure. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is used in an attempt to
predict the final cost of two story (12 classes) school projects under lowest bid system of award
before work starts. A database of (65) school projects records completed in (2007-2012) are used to
develop and verify the ANN model. Based on expert opinions, nine out of eleven parameters are
considered to have the most significant impact on the magnitude of final cost. Hence they are used as
model inputs while the output of the model is going to be the final cost (FC). These parameters are;
accepted bid price, average bid price, estimated cost, contractor rank, supervising engineer
experience, project location, number of bidders, year of contracting, and contractual duration. It was
found that ANN has the ability to predict the final cost for school projects with very good degree of
accuracy having a coefficient of correlation (R) of (91%), and an average accuracy percentage of
(99.98%).
Construction Management (CM) has to deal with a variety of uncertainties related to Time, Cost, Quality, and Safety, to name a few. Such uncertainties make the entire construction process highly unpredictable. It, therefore, falls under the purview of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in which the given hazy information can be effectively interpreted in order to arrive at meaningful conclusions. This paper reviews the application of ANNs in construction activities related to the prediction of costs, risk, and safety, tender bids, as well as labor and equipment productivity. The review suggests that the ANN’s had been highly beneficial in correctly interpreting inadequate input information. It was seen that most of the investigators used the feed forward back propagation type of the network; however, if a single ANN architecture was found to be insufficient, then hybrid modeling in association with other machine learning tools such as genetic programming and support vector machines were much useful. It was however clear that the authenticity of data and experience of the modeler are important in obtaining good results.
Funding agencies such as the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of The National Academies make their online grant databases publicly available which document a variety of information on grants that have been funded over the past few decades. In this paper, based on a quantitative analysis of the TRB’s Research In Progress (RIP) online database, we explore the feasibility of automatically estimating the appropriate funding level, given the textual description of a transportation research project. We use statistical Text Mining (TM) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies to build this model using the 14,000 or more records of the TRB’s RIP research grants big data. Several Natural Language Processing (NLP) based text representation models such as the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI) and the Doc2Vec Machine Learning (ML) approach are used to vectorize the project descriptions and generate semantic vectors. Each of these representations is then used to train supervised regression models such as Random Forest (RF) regression. Out of the three latent feature generation models, we found LDA gives the least Mean Absolute Error (MAE) using 300 feature dimensions and RF regression model. However, based on the correlation coefficients, it was found that it is not very feasible to accurately predict the funding level directly from the unstructured project abstract, given the large variations in source agencies, subject areas, and funding levels. By using separate prediction models for different types of funding agencies, funding levels were better correlated with the project abstract.
Conceptual Cost Estimate of Libyan Highway Projects Using Artificial Neural N...IJERA Editor
It is well known that decisions at early stages of a construction project have great impact on subsequent project performance. Conceptual cost estimate is a challenging task that is done with limited information at the early stages of a project life where many factors affecting the project costs are still unknown. The objective of this paper is to support decision makers in predicting the conceptual cost of highway construction projects in Libya. Initially, the factors that significantly influence highway construction are identified. Then, an artificial neural network model is developed for predicting the cost. The network is trained and tested with a total of 67 projects historical data. Training of the model is administered via back-propagation algorithm. The model is coded ad implemented using MATLAB® to facilitate its use. An optimization module is also added to the Neural Network model with the objective of minimizing the error of the predicted cost. The model is then validated and the results show better predictions of conceptual cost of highway projects in Libya.
Comparison of Cost Estimation Methods using Hybrid Artificial Intelligence on...IJERA Editor
Cost estimating at schematic design stage as the basis of project evaluation, engineering design, and cost
management, plays an important role in project decision under a limited definition of scope and constraints in
available information and time, and the presence of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to compare the
performance of cost estimation models of two different hybrid artificial intelligence approaches: regression
analysis-adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (RANFIS) and case based reasoning-genetic algorithm (CBRGA)
techniques. The models were developed based on the same 50 low-cost apartment project datasets in
Indonesia. Tested on another five testing data, the models were proven to perform very well in term of accuracy.
A CBR-GA model was found to be the best performer but suffered from disadvantage of needing 15 cost drivers
if compared to only 4 cost drivers required by RANFIS for on-par performance.
Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Artificial Neural NetworkIJERA Editor
This paper presents an application of artificial neural networks for short-term times series electrical load
forecasting. An adaptive learning algorithm is derived from system stability to ensure the convergence of
training process. Historical data of hourly power load as well as hourly wind power generation are sourced from
European Open Power System Platform. The simulation demonstrates that errors steadily decrease in training
with the adaptive learning factor starting at different initial value and errors behave volatile with constant
learning factors with different values
Applications of Artificial Neural Networks in Civil EngineeringPramey Zode
An artificial brain-like network based on certain mathematical algorithms developed using a numerical computing environment is called as an ‘Artificial Neural Network (ANN)’. Many civil engineering problems which need understanding of physical processes are found to be time consuming and inaccurate to evaluate using conventional approaches. In this regard, many ANNs have been seen as a reliable and practical alternative to solve such problems. Literature review reveals that ANNs have already being used in solving numerous civil engineering problems. This study explains some cases where ANNs have been used and its future scope is also discussed.
Short Term Load Forecasting Using Bootstrap Aggregating Based Ensemble Artifi...Kashif Mehmood
Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) can predict load from several minutes to week plays
the vital role to address challenges such as optimal generation, economic scheduling, dispatching and
contingency analysis. This paper uses Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) technique to perform STFL but long training time and convergence issues caused by bias,
variance and less generalization ability, unable this algorithm to accurately predict future loads. This
issue can be resolved by various methods of Bootstraps Aggregating (Bagging) (like disjoint
partitions, small bags, replica small bags and disjoint bags) which helps in reducing variance and
increasing generalization ability of ANN. Moreover, it results in reducing error in the learning process
of ANN. Disjoint partition proves to be the most accurate Bagging method and combining outputs of
this method by taking mean improves the overall performance. This method of combining several
predictors known as Ensemble Artificial Neural Network (EANN) outperform the ANN and Bagging
method by further increasing the generalization ability and STLF accuracy.
Novel approach for hybrid MAC scheme for balanced energy and transmission in ...IJECEIAES
Hybrid medium access control (MAC) scheme is one of the prominent mechanisms to offer energy efficiency in wireless sensor network where the potential features for both contention-based and schedule-based approaches are mechanized. However, the review of existing hybrid MAC scheme shows many loopholes where mainly it is observed that there is too much inclusion of time-slotting or else there is an inclusion of sophisticated mechanism not meant for offering flexibility to sensor node towards extending its services for upcoming applications of it. Therefore, this manuscript introduces a novel hybrid MAC scheme which is meant for offering cost effective and simplified scheduling operation in order to balance the performance of energy efficiency along with data aggregation performance. The simulated outcome of the study shows that proposed system offers better energy consumption, better throughput, reduced memory consumption, and faster processing in contrast to existing hybrid MAC protocols.
Development Principles of Knowledge Database of Intelligent System for Estima...ITIIIndustries
In the paper, a principles underlying the construction of an intelligent information system estimated results of the dynamic interaction of orbital systems with space debris is presented. It describes the knowledge database model based on these principles which is the synthesis of theoretical and practical information in the field of estimating the high-speed interaction of objects.
Data-Driven Hydrocarbon Production Forecasting Using Machine Learning Techniques (pp. 65-72)
Masoud Safari Zanjani, Mohammad Abdus Salam, Osman Kandara
Department of Computer Science, Southern University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA.
Vol. 18 No. 6 JUNE 2020 International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security
https://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/vol-18-no-6-jun-2020
Generalized optimal placement of PMUs considering power system observability,...IJECEIAES
This paper presents a generalized optimal placement of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) considering power system observability, reliability, Communication Infrastructure (CI), and latency time associated with this CI. Moreover, the economic study for additional new data transmission paths is considered as well as the availability of predefined locations of some PMUs and the preexisting communication devices (CDs) in some buses. Two cases for the location of the Control Center Base Station (CCBS) are considered; predefined case and free selected case. The PMUs placement and their required communication network topology and channel capacity are co-optimized simultaneously. In this study, two different approaches are applied to optimize the objective function; the first approach is combined from Binary Particle Swarm Optimization-Gravitational Search Algorithm (BPSOGSA) and the Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) algorithm, while the second approach is based only on BPSOGSA. The feasibility of the proposed approaches are examined by applying it to IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems.
Enhancement of student performance prediction using modified K-nearest neighborTELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
The traditional K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm uses an exhaustive search for a complete training set to predict a single test sample. This procedure can slow down the system to consume more time for huge datasets. The selection of classes for a new sample depends on a simple majority voting system that does not reflect the various significance of different samples (i.e. ignoring the similarities among samples). It also leads to a misclassification problem due to the occurrence of a double majority class. In reference to the above-mentioned issues, this work adopts a combination of moment descriptor and KNN to optimize the sample selection. This is done based on the fact that classifying the training samples before the searching actually takes place can speed up and improve the predictive performance of the nearest neighbor. The proposed method can be called as fast KNN (FKNN). The experimental results show that the proposed FKNN method decreases original KNN consuming time within a range of (75.4%) to (90.25%), and improve the classification accuracy percentage in the range from (20%) to (36.3%) utilizing three types of student datasets to predict whether the student can pass or fail the exam automatically.
Crowd Recognition System Based on Optical Flow Along with SVM classifierIJECEIAES
The manuscript discusses about abnormalities in a crowded scenario. To prevent the mishap at a public place, there is no much mechanism which could prevent or alert the concerned authority about suspects in a crowd. Usually in a crowded scene, there are chances of some mishap like a terrorist attack or a crime. Our target is finding techniques to identify such activities and to possibly prevent them. If the crowd members exhibit abnormal behavior, we could identify and say that this particular person is a suspect and then the concerned authority would look into the matter. There are various methods to identify the abnormal behavior. The proposed approach is based on optical flow model. It has an ability to detect the sudden changes in motion of an individual among the crowd. First, the main region of motion is extracted by the help of motion heat map. Harris corner detector is used for extracting point of interest of extracted motion area. Based on the point of interest an optical flow is estimated here. After analyzing this optical flow model, a threshold value is fixed. Basically optical flow is an energy level of individual frame. The threshold value is forwarded to SVM classifier, which produces a better result with 99.71% accuracy. This approach is very useful in real time video surveillance system where a machine can monitor unwanted crowd activity.
Trends in mobile network communication and telematics in 2020ijmnct
International Journal of Mobile Network Communications & Telematics (IJMNCT) is an open access peer-reviewed journal that addresses the impacts and challenges of mobile communications and telematics. The journal also aims to focus on various areas such as ecommerce, e-governance, Telematics, Telelearning nomadic computing, data management, related software and hardware technologies, and mobile user services. The journal documents practical and theoretical results which make a fundamental contribution for the development of mobile communication technologies.
Comparison of Cost Estimation Methods using Hybrid Artificial Intelligence on...IJERA Editor
Cost estimating at schematic design stage as the basis of project evaluation, engineering design, and cost
management, plays an important role in project decision under a limited definition of scope and constraints in
available information and time, and the presence of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to compare the
performance of cost estimation models of two different hybrid artificial intelligence approaches: regression
analysis-adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (RANFIS) and case based reasoning-genetic algorithm (CBRGA)
techniques. The models were developed based on the same 50 low-cost apartment project datasets in
Indonesia. Tested on another five testing data, the models were proven to perform very well in term of accuracy.
A CBR-GA model was found to be the best performer but suffered from disadvantage of needing 15 cost drivers
if compared to only 4 cost drivers required by RANFIS for on-par performance.
Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Artificial Neural NetworkIJERA Editor
This paper presents an application of artificial neural networks for short-term times series electrical load
forecasting. An adaptive learning algorithm is derived from system stability to ensure the convergence of
training process. Historical data of hourly power load as well as hourly wind power generation are sourced from
European Open Power System Platform. The simulation demonstrates that errors steadily decrease in training
with the adaptive learning factor starting at different initial value and errors behave volatile with constant
learning factors with different values
Applications of Artificial Neural Networks in Civil EngineeringPramey Zode
An artificial brain-like network based on certain mathematical algorithms developed using a numerical computing environment is called as an ‘Artificial Neural Network (ANN)’. Many civil engineering problems which need understanding of physical processes are found to be time consuming and inaccurate to evaluate using conventional approaches. In this regard, many ANNs have been seen as a reliable and practical alternative to solve such problems. Literature review reveals that ANNs have already being used in solving numerous civil engineering problems. This study explains some cases where ANNs have been used and its future scope is also discussed.
Short Term Load Forecasting Using Bootstrap Aggregating Based Ensemble Artifi...Kashif Mehmood
Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) can predict load from several minutes to week plays
the vital role to address challenges such as optimal generation, economic scheduling, dispatching and
contingency analysis. This paper uses Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) technique to perform STFL but long training time and convergence issues caused by bias,
variance and less generalization ability, unable this algorithm to accurately predict future loads. This
issue can be resolved by various methods of Bootstraps Aggregating (Bagging) (like disjoint
partitions, small bags, replica small bags and disjoint bags) which helps in reducing variance and
increasing generalization ability of ANN. Moreover, it results in reducing error in the learning process
of ANN. Disjoint partition proves to be the most accurate Bagging method and combining outputs of
this method by taking mean improves the overall performance. This method of combining several
predictors known as Ensemble Artificial Neural Network (EANN) outperform the ANN and Bagging
method by further increasing the generalization ability and STLF accuracy.
Novel approach for hybrid MAC scheme for balanced energy and transmission in ...IJECEIAES
Hybrid medium access control (MAC) scheme is one of the prominent mechanisms to offer energy efficiency in wireless sensor network where the potential features for both contention-based and schedule-based approaches are mechanized. However, the review of existing hybrid MAC scheme shows many loopholes where mainly it is observed that there is too much inclusion of time-slotting or else there is an inclusion of sophisticated mechanism not meant for offering flexibility to sensor node towards extending its services for upcoming applications of it. Therefore, this manuscript introduces a novel hybrid MAC scheme which is meant for offering cost effective and simplified scheduling operation in order to balance the performance of energy efficiency along with data aggregation performance. The simulated outcome of the study shows that proposed system offers better energy consumption, better throughput, reduced memory consumption, and faster processing in contrast to existing hybrid MAC protocols.
Development Principles of Knowledge Database of Intelligent System for Estima...ITIIIndustries
In the paper, a principles underlying the construction of an intelligent information system estimated results of the dynamic interaction of orbital systems with space debris is presented. It describes the knowledge database model based on these principles which is the synthesis of theoretical and practical information in the field of estimating the high-speed interaction of objects.
Data-Driven Hydrocarbon Production Forecasting Using Machine Learning Techniques (pp. 65-72)
Masoud Safari Zanjani, Mohammad Abdus Salam, Osman Kandara
Department of Computer Science, Southern University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA.
Vol. 18 No. 6 JUNE 2020 International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security
https://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/vol-18-no-6-jun-2020
Generalized optimal placement of PMUs considering power system observability,...IJECEIAES
This paper presents a generalized optimal placement of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) considering power system observability, reliability, Communication Infrastructure (CI), and latency time associated with this CI. Moreover, the economic study for additional new data transmission paths is considered as well as the availability of predefined locations of some PMUs and the preexisting communication devices (CDs) in some buses. Two cases for the location of the Control Center Base Station (CCBS) are considered; predefined case and free selected case. The PMUs placement and their required communication network topology and channel capacity are co-optimized simultaneously. In this study, two different approaches are applied to optimize the objective function; the first approach is combined from Binary Particle Swarm Optimization-Gravitational Search Algorithm (BPSOGSA) and the Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) algorithm, while the second approach is based only on BPSOGSA. The feasibility of the proposed approaches are examined by applying it to IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems.
Enhancement of student performance prediction using modified K-nearest neighborTELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
The traditional K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm uses an exhaustive search for a complete training set to predict a single test sample. This procedure can slow down the system to consume more time for huge datasets. The selection of classes for a new sample depends on a simple majority voting system that does not reflect the various significance of different samples (i.e. ignoring the similarities among samples). It also leads to a misclassification problem due to the occurrence of a double majority class. In reference to the above-mentioned issues, this work adopts a combination of moment descriptor and KNN to optimize the sample selection. This is done based on the fact that classifying the training samples before the searching actually takes place can speed up and improve the predictive performance of the nearest neighbor. The proposed method can be called as fast KNN (FKNN). The experimental results show that the proposed FKNN method decreases original KNN consuming time within a range of (75.4%) to (90.25%), and improve the classification accuracy percentage in the range from (20%) to (36.3%) utilizing three types of student datasets to predict whether the student can pass or fail the exam automatically.
Crowd Recognition System Based on Optical Flow Along with SVM classifierIJECEIAES
The manuscript discusses about abnormalities in a crowded scenario. To prevent the mishap at a public place, there is no much mechanism which could prevent or alert the concerned authority about suspects in a crowd. Usually in a crowded scene, there are chances of some mishap like a terrorist attack or a crime. Our target is finding techniques to identify such activities and to possibly prevent them. If the crowd members exhibit abnormal behavior, we could identify and say that this particular person is a suspect and then the concerned authority would look into the matter. There are various methods to identify the abnormal behavior. The proposed approach is based on optical flow model. It has an ability to detect the sudden changes in motion of an individual among the crowd. First, the main region of motion is extracted by the help of motion heat map. Harris corner detector is used for extracting point of interest of extracted motion area. Based on the point of interest an optical flow is estimated here. After analyzing this optical flow model, a threshold value is fixed. Basically optical flow is an energy level of individual frame. The threshold value is forwarded to SVM classifier, which produces a better result with 99.71% accuracy. This approach is very useful in real time video surveillance system where a machine can monitor unwanted crowd activity.
Trends in mobile network communication and telematics in 2020ijmnct
International Journal of Mobile Network Communications & Telematics (IJMNCT) is an open access peer-reviewed journal that addresses the impacts and challenges of mobile communications and telematics. The journal also aims to focus on various areas such as ecommerce, e-governance, Telematics, Telelearning nomadic computing, data management, related software and hardware technologies, and mobile user services. The journal documents practical and theoretical results which make a fundamental contribution for the development of mobile communication technologies.
Applying Neural Networks and Analogous Estimating to Determine the Project Bu...Ricardo Viana Vargas
This paper aims to discuss the use of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to model aspects of the project budget where traditional algorithms and formulas are not available or not easy to apply. Neural networks use a process analogous to the human brain, where a training component takes place with existing data and subsequently, a trained neural network becomes an “expert” in the category of information it has been given to analyse. This “expert” can then be used to provide projections given new situations based on an adaptive learning (STERGIOU & CIGANOS, 1996).
The article also presents a fictitious example of the use of neural networks to determine the cost of project management activities based on the complexity, location, budget, duration and number of relevant stakeholders. The example is based on data from 500 projects and is used to predict the project management cost of a given project.
Artificial Neural Network Based Graphical User Interface for Estimation of Fa...ijsrd.com
This paper addresses the problem of estimation of fabrication time in Rig construction projects through application of Artificial Neural Network (ANNs) as this is the most crucial activity for successful project management planning. ANN is a non-linear, data driven, self adaptive approach as opposed to the traditional model based methods, also fast becoming popular in forecasting where relationship between input and output is not known but vast collection of data is available. Around 960 data regarding fabrication activity has been collected from ABG Shipyard Ltd., Dahej. 3 input parameters have been considered for estimation of output as fabrication time. 11 Feed Forward Back Propagation neural networks with different network architectures were made. Network N10 was able to predict the output with MSE 1.35337e-2. Coding was done for the Graphical User Interface (GUI) so that the GUI runs, simulates network N10, and displays the fabrication time for different combination of inputs.
11 Construction productivity and cost estimation using artificial BenitoSumpter862
11 Construction productivity and cost estimation using artificial neural networks
Introduction
Because of the uncertainties and complexities involved in construction projects, expert system applications and artificial intelligence are helpful in the context of construction engineering and management. This chapter focuses on the applications of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for productivity and cost estimations, which are among the most crucial tasks of construction managers and general estimators.
The main objective of this chapter is to provide practical explanations of how to design, develop, analyse and validate ANNs as robust and reliable tools for productivity and cost estimations. An introduction to ANNs is provided, and several examples from the literature that have used ANNs in different areas of construction productivity and cost predictions are listed. As a result, a framework is presented to serve as a general guide on how to develop ANNs, and based on that, a detailed example is discussed to show the application in a real construction project setting. By the end of the chapter, readers should have some basic background about ANNs and should be able to develop a simple but efficient ANN for their own construction projects.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs)
An artificial neural network (ANN) can be defined as a massive parallel distributed processor composed of simple processing units (neurons) which are capable of storing experiential knowledge and retrieving it for future use (Haykin 1999). Neurons communicate by sending signals to each other over a large number of weighted connections. Thus, ANNs can be considered as an information processing technology that, by learning from different experiences and generalizing from previous examples, can simulate the human brain system. A simple schematic diagram of a neuron is shown in Figure 11.1.
Figure 11.1 shows that each neuron has two distinct segments: a summing junction that sums up the received inputs from neighbours and an activation function that computes the output signal, which is propagated to other neurons. The activation function can be theoretically in any form such as signum, linear or semilinear, hyperbolic tangent and sigmoid functions.
Figure 11.1 Schematic diagram of a neuron
To form a network, neurons are grouped into several layers, namely input, hidden and output layers. Two types of network topologies are shown in Figure 11.2:
· Feed-forward networks: data flows strictly from input to output layers, and no feedback connections are allowed.
· Recurrent networks: feedback connections are allowed to provide data flow from the following layers to the preceding layers.
Figure 11.2 Different topologies of ANNs (Alavala 2006)
An ANN should be arranged in such a way that it can provide the desired outputs for a set of inputs presented to the network. To do so, either connection weights should be set using prior knowledge or the network should be trained by training sa ...
11 Construction productivity and cost estimation using artificial AnastaciaShadelb
11 Construction productivity and cost estimation using artificial neural networks
Introduction
Because of the uncertainties and complexities involved in construction projects, expert system applications and artificial intelligence are helpful in the context of construction engineering and management. This chapter focuses on the applications of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for productivity and cost estimations, which are among the most crucial tasks of construction managers and general estimators.
The main objective of this chapter is to provide practical explanations of how to design, develop, analyse and validate ANNs as robust and reliable tools for productivity and cost estimations. An introduction to ANNs is provided, and several examples from the literature that have used ANNs in different areas of construction productivity and cost predictions are listed. As a result, a framework is presented to serve as a general guide on how to develop ANNs, and based on that, a detailed example is discussed to show the application in a real construction project setting. By the end of the chapter, readers should have some basic background about ANNs and should be able to develop a simple but efficient ANN for their own construction projects.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs)
An artificial neural network (ANN) can be defined as a massive parallel distributed processor composed of simple processing units (neurons) which are capable of storing experiential knowledge and retrieving it for future use (Haykin 1999). Neurons communicate by sending signals to each other over a large number of weighted connections. Thus, ANNs can be considered as an information processing technology that, by learning from different experiences and generalizing from previous examples, can simulate the human brain system. A simple schematic diagram of a neuron is shown in Figure 11.1.
Figure 11.1 shows that each neuron has two distinct segments: a summing junction that sums up the received inputs from neighbours and an activation function that computes the output signal, which is propagated to other neurons. The activation function can be theoretically in any form such as signum, linear or semilinear, hyperbolic tangent and sigmoid functions.
Figure 11.1 Schematic diagram of a neuron
To form a network, neurons are grouped into several layers, namely input, hidden and output layers. Two types of network topologies are shown in Figure 11.2:
· Feed-forward networks: data flows strictly from input to output layers, and no feedback connections are allowed.
· Recurrent networks: feedback connections are allowed to provide data flow from the following layers to the preceding layers.
Figure 11.2 Different topologies of ANNs (Alavala 2006)
An ANN should be arranged in such a way that it can provide the desired outputs for a set of inputs presented to the network. To do so, either connection weights should be set using prior knowledge or the network should be trained by training sa ...
VANET Clustering for Protected and Steady Network
Mukesh Bathre1, Alok Sahelay2
Abstract— Vehicular on demand ad-hoc network (VANET) is understood as a necessary issue of good Transportation systems. The key advantage of VANET communication is looked in dynamic protection systems, that objective to improve security of travelers by exchanging caution messages between vehicles. Alternative applications and private services also are allowed so as to lower management expenses and to market VANET exploitation. To effectively established VANET, security is one amongst key challenges that has got to be tackled. Another vital concern is measurability could be a serious issue for a network designer a way to maintain stable communication and services in VANET. Extraordinarily dynamic atmosphere of VANETs looks it troublesome. This paper introduced an automatic reliability management method for VANETs that uses machine learning to categories nodes as malicious. Cluster creation is one effective method for the measurability drawback. Here conjointly given associate entropy-based WCA (EWCA) cluster maintained method which may handle the steady of the automobile network.
AUTO-MOBILE VEHICLE DIRECTION IN ROAD TRAFFIC USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKScsandit
So far Most of the current work on this area deals with traffic volume prediction during peak hours and the reasons behind accidents only. This work presents the analysis of automobile vehicle directing in various traffic flow conditions using Artificial neural network architecture.
Now a days, due to unprecedented increase in automobile vehicular traffic especially in metro-Politian cities, it has become highly imperative that we must choose an optimum road route in accordance with our requirements. The requirements are : volume of the traffic, Distance
between source and destination, no of signals in between the source and destination, the nature of the road condition , fuel consumption and Travel Timing. Artificial Neural networks, a soft computing technique, modeled after brain biological neuron functioning, helps to obtain the
required road way or route as per the training given to it. Here we make use of Back propagation network, which changes the weights value of the hidden layers, thereby activation function value which fires the neuron to get the required output.
Auto mobile vehicle direction in road traffic using artificial neural networkscsandit
So far Most of the current work on this area deals with traffic volume prediction during peak
hours and the reasons behind accidents only. This work presents the analysis of automobile
vehicle directing in various traffic flow conditions using Artificial neural network architecture.
Now a days, due to unprecedented increase in automobile vehicular traffic especially in metro-
Politian cities, it has become highly imperative that we must choose an optimum road route in
accordance with our requirements. The requirements are : volume of the traffic, Distance
between source and destination, no of signals in between the source and destination, the nature
of the road condition , fuel consumption and Travel Timing. Artificial Neural networks, a soft
computing technique, modeled after brain biological neuron functioning, helps to obtain the
required road way or route as per the training given to it. Here we make use of Back
propagation network, which changes the weights value of the hidden layers, thereby activation
function value which fires the neuron to get the required output
AUTO-MOBILE VEHICLE DIRECTION IN ROAD TRAFFIC USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS cscpconf
So far Most of the current work on this area deals with traffic volume prediction during peak hours and the reasons behind accidents only. This work presents the analysis of automobile
vehicle directing in various traffic flow conditions using Artificial neural network architecture. Now a days, due to unprecedented increase in automobile vehicular traffic especially in metroPolitian cities, it has become highly imperative that we must choose an optimum road route in accordance with our requirements. The requirements are : volume of the traffic, Distancebetween source and destination, no of signals in between the source and destination, the nature of the road condition , fuel consumption and Travel Timing. Artificial Neural networks, a soft computing technique, modeled after brain biological neuron functioning, helps to obtain the required road way or route as per the training given to it. Here we make use of Back propagation network, which changes the weights value of the hidden layers, thereby activation function value which fires the neuron to get the required output.
Intelligent black hole detection in mobile AdHoc networksIJECEIAES
Security is a critical and challenging issue in MANET due to its open-nature characteristics such as: mobility, wireless communications, self-organizing and dynamic topology. MANETs are commonly the target of black hole attacks. These are launched by malicious nodes that join the network to sabotage and drain it of its resources. Black hole nodes intercept exchanged data packets and simply drop them. The black hole node uses vulnerabilities in the routing protocol of MANETS to declare itself as the closest relay node to any destination. This work proposed two detection protocols based on the collected dataset, namely: the BDD-AODV and Hybrid protocols. Both protocols were built on top of the original AODV. The BDD-AODV protocol depends on the features collected for the prevention and detection of black hole attack techniques. On the other hand, the Hybrid protocol is a combination of both the MI-AODV and the proposed BDD-AODV protocols. Extensive simulation experiments were conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms. Simulation results show that the proposed protocols improved the detection and prevention of black hole nodes, and hence, the network achieved a higher packet delivery ratio, lower dropped packets ratio, and lower overhead. However, this improvement led to a slight increase in the end-to-end delay.
AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK-BASED APPROACH COUPLED WITH TAGUCHI'S METHOD FOR...IAEME Publication
Nowadays, project duration prediction has become of crucial importance for managers since it points out the expectancy-life of project realization. To this end, the Neural Network-based approach coupled with the Taguchi method is used to predict the necessary time, which allows the fulfillment of the targeted project within the prescribed span without delay. Accordingly, the whole process for modeling the targeted problem is described, in which the modeling and simulation of the activities network are introduced for calculating the total average time of project. Then, the neural network approach is adopted to predict the total time for finishing the considered project within the deadlines, where the neural network’s input variables are composed of success probability, improvement and learning factors. While, the output variable is the total average project duration, which is the critical data during design phase. After that, the well-known Taguchi method is purposefully used to optimize the already obtained target by neural network. Finally, Simulation analysis through MATLAB are used to show the efficiency of the proposed approach regarding the workability of the approach when it comes to estimating the deadline of the targeted project.
Residual balanced attention network for real-time traffic scene semantic segm...IJECEIAES
Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) are among the most focused research in this century. Actually, autonomous driving provides very advanced tasks in terms of road safety monitoring which include identifying dangers on the road and protecting pedestrians. In the last few years, deep learning (DL) approaches and especially convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been extensively used to solve ITS problems such as traffic scene semantic segmentation and traffic signs classification. Semantic segmentation is an important task that has been addressed in computer vision (CV). Indeed, traffic scene semantic segmentation using CNNs requires high precision with few computational resources to perceive and segment the scene in real-time. However, we often find related work focusing only on one aspect, the precision, or the number of computational parameters. In this regard, we propose RBANet, a robust and lightweight CNN which uses a new proposed balanced attention module, and a new proposed residual module. Afterward, we have simulated our proposed RBANet using three loss functions to get the best combination using only 0.74M parameters. The RBANet has been evaluated on CamVid, the most used dataset in semantic segmentation, and it has performed well in terms of parameters’ requirements and precision compared to related work.
The impact of channel model on the performance of distance-based schemes in v...IJECEIAES
Distance-based schemes present one of the methods to avoid the broadcast problem in vehicular named data networks. However, such schemes overlook the most factor in performance evaluation which is the variation in received signal strength caused by the propagation model choice. Thus, they are evaluated under one propagation model while neglecting the effect of the others. This paper evaluates the impact of the propagation variation model over three distance-based schemes, namely rapid named data networking (RNDN), enhanced vehicle on named data networking (EVNDN) and opportunistic interest forwarding protocol (OIFP). Simulation experiments are performed over three propagation models. Simulation results show that Nakagami significantly degrades network performance. However, it has a noticeable positive effect over higher distance resulting in a higher interest satisfaction ratio as compared to the other models. The RNDN exhibits a higher number of retransmissions across the Nakagami. In contrast, a higher number of retransmissions is exhibited by EVNDN when compared to the other schemes over the Friis and random. The OIFP show a higher interest satisfaction ratio when compared to EVNDN and RNDN under all models. OIFP shows robustness towards the adverse fading effects resulting from the Nakagami and exhibits lower end to end delays.
Submission Deadline: 30th September 2022
Acceptance Notification: Within Three Days’ time period
Online Publication: Within 24 Hrs. time Period
Expected Date of Dispatch of Printed Journal: 5th October 2022
MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF SURFACE ROUGHNESS AND WHITE LATER THICKNESS IN WIRE-...IAEME Publication
White layer thickness (WLT) formed and surface roughness in wire electric discharge turning (WEDT) of tungsten carbide composite has been made to model through response surface methodology (RSM). A Taguchi’s standard Design of experiments involving five input variables with three levels has been employed to establish a mathematical model between input parameters and responses. Percentage of cobalt content, spindle speed, Pulse on-time, wire feed and pulse off-time were changed during the experimental tests based on the Taguchi’s orthogonal array L27 (3^13). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that the mathematical models obtained can adequately describe performance within the parameters of the factors considered. There was a good agreement between the experimental and predicted values in this study.
A STUDY ON THE REASONS FOR TRANSGENDER TO BECOME ENTREPRENEURSIAEME Publication
The study explores the reasons for a transgender to become entrepreneurs. In this study transgender entrepreneur was taken as independent variable and reasons to become as dependent variable. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire containing a five point Likert Scale. The study examined the data of 30 transgender entrepreneurs in Salem Municipal Corporation of Tamil Nadu State, India. Simple Random sampling technique was used. Garrett Ranking Technique (Percentile Position, Mean Scores) was used as the analysis for the present study to identify the top 13 stimulus factors for establishment of trans entrepreneurial venture. Economic advancement of a nation is governed upon the upshot of a resolute entrepreneurial doings. The conception of entrepreneurship has stretched and materialized to the socially deflated uncharted sections of transgender community. Presently transgenders have smashed their stereotypes and are making recent headlines of achievements in various fields of our Indian society. The trans-community is gradually being observed in a new light and has been trying to achieve prospective growth in entrepreneurship. The findings of the research revealed that the optimistic changes are taking place to change affirmative societal outlook of the transgender for entrepreneurial ventureship. It also laid emphasis on other transgenders to renovate their traditional living. The paper also highlights that legislators, supervisory body should endorse an impartial canons and reforms in Tamil Nadu Transgender Welfare Board Association.
BROAD UNEXPOSED SKILLS OF TRANSGENDER ENTREPRENEURSIAEME Publication
Since ages gender difference is always a debatable theme whether caused by nature, evolution or environment. The birth of a transgender is dreadful not only for the child but also for their parents. The pain of living in the wrong physique and treated as second class victimized citizen is outrageous and fully harboured with vicious baseless negative scruples. For so long, social exclusion had perpetuated inequality and deprivation experiencing ingrained malign stigma and besieged victims of crime or violence across their life spans. They are pushed into the murky way of life with a source of eternal disgust, bereft sexual potency and perennial fear. Although they are highly visible but very little is known about them. The common public needs to comprehend the ravaged arrogance on these insensitive souls and assist in integrating them into the mainstream by offering equal opportunity, treat with humanity and respect their dignity. Entrepreneurship in the current age is endorsing the gender fairness movement. Unstable careers and economic inadequacy had inclined one of the gender variant people called Transgender to become entrepreneurs. These tiny budding entrepreneurs resulted in economic transition by means of employment, free from the clutches of stereotype jobs, raised standard of living and handful of financial empowerment. Besides all these inhibitions, they were able to witness a platform for skill set development that ignited them to enter into entrepreneurial domain. This paper epitomizes skill sets involved in trans-entrepreneurs of Thoothukudi Municipal Corporation of Tamil Nadu State and is a groundbreaking determination to sightsee various skills incorporated and the impact on entrepreneurship.
DETERMINANTS AFFECTING THE USER'S INTENTION TO USE MOBILE BANKING APPLICATIONSIAEME Publication
The banking and financial services industries are experiencing increased technology penetration. Among them, the banking industry has made technological advancements to better serve the general populace. The economy focused on transforming the banking sector's system into a cashless, paperless, and faceless one. The researcher wants to evaluate the user's intention for utilising a mobile banking application. The study also examines the variables affecting the user's behaviour intention when selecting specific applications for financial transactions. The researcher employed a well-structured questionnaire and a descriptive study methodology to gather the respondents' primary data utilising the snowball sampling technique. The study includes variables like performance expectations, effort expectations, social impact, enabling circumstances, and perceived risk. Each of the aforementioned variables has a major impact on how users utilise mobile banking applications. The outcome will assist the service provider in comprehending the user's history with mobile banking applications.
ANALYSE THE USER PREDILECTION ON GPAY AND PHONEPE FOR DIGITAL TRANSACTIONSIAEME Publication
Technology upgradation in banking sector took the economy to view that payment mode towards online transactions using mobile applications. This system enabled connectivity between banks, Merchant and user in a convenient mode. there are various applications used for online transactions such as Google pay, Paytm, freecharge, mobikiwi, oxygen, phonepe and so on and it also includes mobile banking applications. The study aimed at evaluating the predilection of the user in adopting digital transaction. The study is descriptive in nature. The researcher used random sample techniques to collect the data. The findings reveal that mobile applications differ with the quality of service rendered by Gpay and Phonepe. The researcher suggest the Phonepe application should focus on implementing the application should be user friendly interface and Gpay on motivating the users to feel the importance of request for money and modes of payments in the application.
VOICE BASED ATM FOR VISUALLY IMPAIRED USING ARDUINOIAEME Publication
The prototype of a voice-based ATM for visually impaired using Arduino is to help people who are blind. This uses RFID cards which contain users fingerprint encrypted on it and interacts with the users through voice commands. ATM operates when sensor detects the presence of one person in the cabin. After scanning the RFID card, it will ask to select the mode like –normal or blind. User can select the respective mode through voice input, if blind mode is selected the balance check or cash withdraw can be done through voice input. Normal mode procedure is same as the existing ATM.
IMPACT OF EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE ON HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AMONG...IAEME Publication
There is increasing acceptability of emotional intelligence as a major factor in personality assessment and effective human resource management. Emotional intelligence as the ability to build capacity, empathize, co-operate, motivate and develop others cannot be divorced from both effective performance and human resource management systems. The human person is crucial in defining organizational leadership and fortunes in terms of challenges and opportunities and walking across both multinational and bilateral relationships. The growing complexity of the business world requires a great deal of self-confidence, integrity, communication, conflict and diversity management to keep the global enterprise within the paths of productivity and sustainability. Using the exploratory research design and 255 participants the result of this original study indicates strong positive correlation between emotional intelligence and effective human resource management. The paper offers suggestions on further studies between emotional intelligence and human capital development and recommends for conflict management as an integral part of effective human resource management.
VISUALISING AGING PARENTS & THEIR CLOSE CARERS LIFE JOURNEY IN AGING ECONOMYIAEME Publication
Our life journey, in general, is closely defined by the way we understand the meaning of why we coexist and deal with its challenges. As we develop the "inspiration economy", we could say that nearly all of the challenges we have faced are opportunities that help us to discover the rest of our journey. In this note paper, we explore how being faced with the opportunity of being a close carer for an aging parent with dementia brought intangible discoveries that changed our insight of the meaning of the rest of our life journey.
A STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PERFO...IAEME Publication
The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of aspects of Organizational Culture on the Effectiveness of the Performance Management System (PMS) in the Health Care Organization at Thanjavur. Organizational Culture and PMS play a crucial role in present-day organizations in achieving their objectives. PMS needs employees’ cooperation to achieve its intended objectives. Employees' cooperation depends upon the organization’s culture. The present study uses exploratory research to examine the relationship between the Organization's culture and the Effectiveness of the Performance Management System. The study uses a Structured Questionnaire to collect the primary data. For this study, Thirty-six non-clinical employees were selected from twelve randomly selected Health Care organizations at Thanjavur. Thirty-two fully completed questionnaires were received.
Living in 21st century in itself reminds all of us the necessity of police and its administration. As more and more we are entering into the modern society and culture, the more we require the services of the so called ‘Khaki Worthy’ men i.e., the police personnel. Whether we talk of Indian police or the other nation’s police, they all have the same recognition as they have in India. But as already mentioned, their services and requirements are different after the like 26th November, 2008 incidents, where they without saving their own lives has sacrificed themselves without any hitch and without caring about their respective family members and wards. In other words, they are like our heroes and mentors who can guide us from the darkness of fear, militancy, corruption and other dark sides of life and so on. Now the question arises, if Gandhi would have been alive today, what would have been his reaction/opinion to the police and its functioning? Would he have some thing different in his mind now what he had been in his mind before the partition or would he be going to start some Satyagraha in the form of some improvement in the functioning of the police administration? Really these questions or rather night mares can come to any one’s mind, when there is too much confusion is prevailing in our minds, when there is too much corruption in the society and when the polices working is also in the questioning because of one or the other case throughout the India. It is matter of great concern that we have to thing over our administration and our practical approach because the police personals are also like us, they are part and parcel of our society and among one of us, so why we all are pin pointing towards them.
A STUDY ON TALENT MANAGEMENT AND ITS IMPACT ON EMPLOYEE RETENTION IN SELECTED...IAEME Publication
The goal of this study was to see how talent management affected employee retention in the selected IT organizations in Chennai. The fundamental issue was the difficulty to attract, hire, and retain talented personnel who perform well and the gap between supply and demand of talent acquisition and retaining them within the firms. The study's main goals were to determine the impact of talent management on employee retention in IT companies in Chennai, investigate talent management strategies that IT companies could use to improve talent acquisition, performance management, career planning and formulate retention strategies that the IT firms could use. The respondents were given a structured close-ended questionnaire with the 5 Point Likert Scale as part of the study's quantitative research design. The target population consisted of 289 IT professionals. The questionnaires were distributed and collected by the researcher directly. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to collect and analyse the questionnaire responses. Hypotheses that were formulated for the various areas of the study were tested using a variety of statistical tests. The key findings of the study suggested that talent management had an impact on employee retention. The studies also found that there is a clear link between the implementation of talent management and retention measures. Management should provide enough training and development for employees, clarify job responsibilities, provide adequate remuneration packages, and recognise employees for exceptional performance.
ATTRITION IN THE IT INDUSTRY DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC: LINKING EMOTIONAL INTE...IAEME Publication
Globally, Millions of dollars were spent by the organizations for employing skilled Information Technology (IT) professionals. It is costly to replace unskilled employees with IT professionals possessing technical skills and competencies that aid in interconnecting the business processes. The organization’s employment tactics were forced to alter by globalization along with technological innovations as they consistently diminish to remain lean, outsource to concentrate on core competencies along with restructuring/reallocate personnel to gather efficiency. As other jobs, organizations or professions have become reasonably more appropriate in a shifting employment landscape, the above alterations trigger both involuntary as well as voluntary turnover. The employee view on jobs is also afflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic along with the employee-driven labour market. So, having effective strategies is necessary to tackle the withdrawal rate of employees. By associating Emotional Intelligence (EI) along with Talent Management (TM) in the IT industry, the rise in attrition rate was analyzed in this study. Only 303 respondents were collected out of 350 participants to whom questionnaires were distributed. From the employees of IT organizations located in Bangalore (India), the data were congregated. A simple random sampling methodology was employed to congregate data as of the respondents. Generating the hypothesis along with testing is eventuated. The effect of EI and TM along with regression analysis between TM and EI was analyzed. The outcomes indicated that employee and Organizational Performance (OP) were elevated by effective EI along with TM.
INFLUENCE OF TALENT MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE A STUD...IAEME Publication
By implementing talent management strategy, organizations would have the option to retain their skilled professionals while additionally working on their overall performance. It is the course of appropriately utilizing the ideal individuals, setting them up for future top positions, exploring and dealing with their performance, and holding them back from leaving the organization. It is employee performance that determines the success of every organization. The firm quickly obtains an upper hand over its rivals in the event that its employees having particular skills that cannot be duplicated by the competitors. Thus, firms are centred on creating successful talent management practices and processes to deal with the unique human resources. Firms are additionally endeavouring to keep their top/key staff since on the off chance that they leave; the whole store of information leaves the firm's hands. The study's objective was to determine the impact of talent management on organizational performance among the selected IT organizations in Chennai. The study recommends that talent management limitedly affects performance. On the off chance that this talent is appropriately management and implemented properly, organizations might benefit as much as possible from their maintained assets to support development and productivity, both monetarily and non-monetarily.
A STUDY OF VARIOUS TYPES OF LOANS OF SELECTED PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS...IAEME Publication
Banking regulations act of India, 1949 defines banking as “acceptance of deposits for the purpose of lending or investment from the public, repayment on demand or otherwise and withdrawable through cheques, drafts order or otherwise”, the major participants of the Indian financial system are commercial banks, the financial institution encompassing term lending institutions. Investments institutions, specialized financial institution and the state level development banks, non banking financial companies (NBFC) and other market intermediaries such has the stock brokers and money lenders are among the oldest of the certain variants of NBFC and the oldest market participants. The asset quality of banks is one of the most important indicators of their financial health. The Indian banking sector has been facing severe problems of increasing Non- Performing Assets (NPAs). The NPAs growth directly and indirectly affects the quality of assets and profitability of banks. It also shows the efficiency of banks credit risk management and the recovery effectiveness. NPA do not generate any income, whereas, the bank is required to make provisions for such as assets that why is a double edge weapon. This paper outlines the concept of quality of bank loans of different types like Housing, Agriculture and MSME loans in state Haryana of selected public and private sector banks. This study is highlighting problems associated with the role of commercial bank in financing Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SME). The overall objective of the research was to assess the effect of the financing provisions existing for the setting up and operations of MSMEs in the country and to generate recommendations for more robust financing mechanisms for successful operation of the MSMEs, in turn understanding the impact of MSME loans on financial institutions due to NPA. There are many research conducted on the topic of Non- Performing Assets (NPA) Management, concerning particular bank, comparative study of public and private banks etc. In this paper the researcher is considering the aggregate data of selected public sector and private sector banks and attempts to compare the NPA of Housing, Agriculture and MSME loans in state Haryana of public and private sector banks. The tools used in the study are average and Anova test and variance. The findings reveal that NPA is common problem for both public and private sector banks and is associated with all types of loans either that is housing loans, agriculture loans and loans to SMES. NPAs of both public and private sector banks show the increasing trend. In 2010-11 GNPA of public and private sector were at same level it was 2% but after 2010-11 it increased in many fold and at present there is GNPA in some more than 15%. It shows the dark area of Indian banking sector.
EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF MECHANICAL AND TRIBOLOGICAL RELATION OF NYLON/BaSO4 POL...IAEME Publication
An experiment conducted in this study found that BaSO4 changed Nylon 6's mechanical properties. By changing the weight ratios, BaSO4 was used to make Nylon 6. This Researcher looked into how hard Nylon-6/BaSO4 composites are and how well they wear. Experiments were done based on Taguchi design L9. Nylon-6/BaSO4 composites can be tested for their hardness number using a Rockwell hardness testing apparatus. On Nylon/BaSO4, the wear behavior was measured by a wear monitor, pinon-disc friction by varying reinforcement, sliding speed, and sliding distance, and the microstructure of the crack surfaces was observed by SEM. This study provides significant contributions to ultimate strength by increasing BaSO4 content up to 16% in the composites, and sliding speed contributes 72.45% to the wear rate
ROLE OF SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN RURAL DEVELOPMENT OF INDIA - PROBLEMS AND ...IAEME Publication
The majority of the population in India lives in villages. The village is the back bone of the country. Village or rural industries play an important role in the national economy, particularly in the rural development. Developing the rural economy is one of the key indicators towards a country’s success. Whether it be the need to look after the welfare of the farmers or invest in rural infrastructure, Governments have to ensure that rural development isn’t compromised. The economic development of our country largely depends on the progress of rural areas and the standard of living of rural masses. Village or rural industries play an important role in the national economy, particularly in the rural development. Rural entrepreneurship is based on stimulating local entrepreneurial talent and the subsequent growth of indigenous enterprises. It recognizes opportunity in the rural areas and accelerates a unique blend of resources either inside or outside of agriculture. Rural entrepreneurship brings an economic value to the rural sector by creating new methods of production, new markets, new products and generate employment opportunities thereby ensuring continuous rural development. Social Entrepreneurship has the direct and primary objective of serving the society along with the earning profits. So, social entrepreneurship is different from the economic entrepreneurship as its basic objective is not to earn profits but for providing innovative solutions to meet the society needs which are not taken care by majority of the entrepreneurs as they are in the business for profit making as a sole objective. So, the Social Entrepreneurs have the huge growth potential particularly in the developing countries like India where we have huge societal disparities in terms of the financial positions of the population. Still 22 percent of the Indian population is below the poverty line and also there is disparity among the rural & urban population in terms of families living under BPL. 25.7 percent of the rural population & 13.7 percent of the urban population is under BPL which clearly shows the disparity of the poor people in the rural and urban areas. The need to develop social entrepreneurship in agriculture is dictated by a large number of social problems. Such problems include low living standards, unemployment, and social tension. The reasons that led to the emergence of the practice of social entrepreneurship are the above factors. The research problem lays upon disclosing the importance of role of social entrepreneurship in rural development of India. The paper the tendencies of social entrepreneurship in India, to present successful examples of such business for providing recommendations how to improve situation in rural areas in terms of social entrepreneurship development. Indian government has made some steps towards development of social enterprises, social entrepreneurship, and social in- novation, but a lot remains to be improved.
OPTIMAL RECONFIGURATION OF POWER DISTRIBUTION RADIAL NETWORK USING HYBRID MET...IAEME Publication
Distribution system is a critical link between the electric power distributor and the consumers. Most of the distribution networks commonly used by the electric utility is the radial distribution network. However in this type of network, it has technical issues such as enormous power losses which affect the quality of the supply. Nowadays, the introduction of Distributed Generation (DG) units in the system help improve and support the voltage profile of the network as well as the performance of the system components through power loss mitigation. In this study network reconfiguration was done using two meta-heuristic algorithms Particle Swarm Optimization and Gravitational Search Algorithm (PSO-GSA) to enhance power quality and voltage profile in the system when simultaneously applied with the DG units. Backward/Forward Sweep Method was used in the load flow analysis and simulated using the MATLAB program. Five cases were considered in the Reconfiguration based on the contribution of DG units. The proposed method was tested using IEEE 33 bus system. Based on the results, there was a voltage profile improvement in the system from 0.9038 p.u. to 0.9594 p.u.. The integration of DG in the network also reduced power losses from 210.98 kW to 69.3963 kW. Simulated results are drawn to show the performance of each case.
APPLICATION OF FRUGAL APPROACH FOR PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT - A CASE STUDY OF...IAEME Publication
Manufacturing industries have witnessed an outburst in productivity. For productivity improvement manufacturing industries are taking various initiatives by using lean tools and techniques. However, in different manufacturing industries, frugal approach is applied in product design and services as a tool for improvement. Frugal approach contributed to prove less is more and seems indirectly contributing to improve productivity. Hence, there is need to understand status of frugal approach application in manufacturing industries. All manufacturing industries are trying hard and putting continuous efforts for competitive existence. For productivity improvements, manufacturing industries are coming up with different effective and efficient solutions in manufacturing processes and operations. To overcome current challenges, manufacturing industries have started using frugal approach in product design and services. For this study, methodology adopted with both primary and secondary sources of data. For primary source interview and observation technique is used and for secondary source review has done based on available literatures in website, printed magazines, manual etc. An attempt has made for understanding application of frugal approach with the study of manufacturing industry project. Manufacturing industry selected for this project study is Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. This paper will help researcher to find the connections between the two concepts productivity improvement and frugal approach. This paper will help to understand significance of frugal approach for productivity improvement in manufacturing industry. This will also help to understand current scenario of frugal approach in manufacturing industry. In manufacturing industries various process are involved to deliver the final product. In the process of converting input in to output through manufacturing process productivity plays very critical role. Hence this study will help to evolve status of frugal approach in productivity improvement programme. The notion of frugal can be viewed as an approach towards productivity improvement in manufacturing industries.
A MULTIPLE – CHANNEL QUEUING MODELS ON FUZZY ENVIRONMENTIAEME Publication
In this paper, we investigated a queuing model of fuzzy environment-based a multiple channel queuing model (M/M/C) ( /FCFS) and study its performance under realistic conditions. It applies a nonagonal fuzzy number to analyse the relevant performance of a multiple channel queuing model (M/M/C) ( /FCFS). Based on the sub interval average ranking method for nonagonal fuzzy number, we convert fuzzy number to crisp one. Numerical results reveal that the efficiency of this method. Intuitively, the fuzzy environment adapts well to a multiple channel queuing models (M/M/C) ( /FCFS) are very well.
Industrial Training at Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL)MdTanvirMahtab2
This presentation is about the working procedure of Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited (SFCL). A Govt. owned Company of Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation under Ministry of Industries.
Explore the innovative world of trenchless pipe repair with our comprehensive guide, "The Benefits and Techniques of Trenchless Pipe Repair." This document delves into the modern methods of repairing underground pipes without the need for extensive excavation, highlighting the numerous advantages and the latest techniques used in the industry.
Learn about the cost savings, reduced environmental impact, and minimal disruption associated with trenchless technology. Discover detailed explanations of popular techniques such as pipe bursting, cured-in-place pipe (CIPP) lining, and directional drilling. Understand how these methods can be applied to various types of infrastructure, from residential plumbing to large-scale municipal systems.
Ideal for homeowners, contractors, engineers, and anyone interested in modern plumbing solutions, this guide provides valuable insights into why trenchless pipe repair is becoming the preferred choice for pipe rehabilitation. Stay informed about the latest advancements and best practices in the field.
Hierarchical Digital Twin of a Naval Power SystemKerry Sado
A hierarchical digital twin of a Naval DC power system has been developed and experimentally verified. Similar to other state-of-the-art digital twins, this technology creates a digital replica of the physical system executed in real-time or faster, which can modify hardware controls. However, its advantage stems from distributing computational efforts by utilizing a hierarchical structure composed of lower-level digital twin blocks and a higher-level system digital twin. Each digital twin block is associated with a physical subsystem of the hardware and communicates with a singular system digital twin, which creates a system-level response. By extracting information from each level of the hierarchy, power system controls of the hardware were reconfigured autonomously. This hierarchical digital twin development offers several advantages over other digital twins, particularly in the field of naval power systems. The hierarchical structure allows for greater computational efficiency and scalability while the ability to autonomously reconfigure hardware controls offers increased flexibility and responsiveness. The hierarchical decomposition and models utilized were well aligned with the physical twin, as indicated by the maximum deviations between the developed digital twin hierarchy and the hardware.
CFD Simulation of By-pass Flow in a HRSG module by R&R Consult.pptxR&R Consult
CFD analysis is incredibly effective at solving mysteries and improving the performance of complex systems!
Here's a great example: At a large natural gas-fired power plant, where they use waste heat to generate steam and energy, they were puzzled that their boiler wasn't producing as much steam as expected.
R&R and Tetra Engineering Group Inc. were asked to solve the issue with reduced steam production.
An inspection had shown that a significant amount of hot flue gas was bypassing the boiler tubes, where the heat was supposed to be transferred.
R&R Consult conducted a CFD analysis, which revealed that 6.3% of the flue gas was bypassing the boiler tubes without transferring heat. The analysis also showed that the flue gas was instead being directed along the sides of the boiler and between the modules that were supposed to capture the heat. This was the cause of the reduced performance.
Based on our results, Tetra Engineering installed covering plates to reduce the bypass flow. This improved the boiler's performance and increased electricity production.
It is always satisfying when we can help solve complex challenges like this. Do your systems also need a check-up or optimization? Give us a call!
Work done in cooperation with James Malloy and David Moelling from Tetra Engineering.
More examples of our work https://www.r-r-consult.dk/en/cases-en/
Saudi Arabia stands as a titan in the global energy landscape, renowned for its abundant oil and gas resources. It's the largest exporter of petroleum and holds some of the world's most significant reserves. Let's delve into the top 10 oil and gas projects shaping Saudi Arabia's energy future in 2024.
Overview of the fundamental roles in Hydropower generation and the components involved in wider Electrical Engineering.
This paper presents the design and construction of hydroelectric dams from the hydrologist’s survey of the valley before construction, all aspects and involved disciplines, fluid dynamics, structural engineering, generation and mains frequency regulation to the very transmission of power through the network in the United Kingdom.
Author: Robbie Edward Sayers
Collaborators and co editors: Charlie Sims and Connor Healey.
(C) 2024 Robbie E. Sayers
NO1 Uk best vashikaran specialist in delhi vashikaran baba near me online vas...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
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Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
In this month's edition, along with this month's industry news to celebrate the 13 years since the group was created we have articles including
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A look back on an article on smart wastewater networks in order to see how the industry has measured up in the interim around the adoption of Digital Transformation in the Water Industry.
2. Development of The Artificial Neural Network Model For Prediction of Iraqi Expressways
Construction Cost
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 63 editor@iaeme.com
Cite this Article: Dr. Tareq Abdul Majeed Khaleel. Development of The
Artificial Neural Network Model For Prediction of Iraqi Expressways
Construction Cost. International Journal of Civil Engineering and
Technology, 6(10), 2015, pp. 62-76.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=10
1. INTRODUCTION
Expressways were an expressway especially planned for high-speed traffic, usually
having few if any intersections, limited points of access or exit, and a divider between
lanes for traffic moving in opposite directions.
Conceptual cost estimate is one of the most important activities to be performed
during the project planning phase. It includes the determination of the project’s total
costs based only on general early concepts of the project (Kan, 2002). Like all other
planning activities, conceptual cost estimating is a challenging task. This is due to the
availability of limited information at the early stages of a project where many factors
affecting the project costs are still unknown
Major difficulties which arise while conducting cost estimation during the
conceptual phase are lack of preliminary information, lack of database of road works
costs, and lack of up to date cost estimation methods. Additional difficulties arise due
to larger uncertainties as result of engineering solutions, socio-economical, and
environmental issues. Parametric cost estimation or estimation based on historic
database during the conceptual estimate phase is widely used in developed countries.
However, developing countries face difficulties related to the creation of a road work
costs database, which may be used for cost estimation in either the conceptual stage or
the feasibility study of a project cycle.
One of the earliest papers to introduce the benefits and the implementation of
ANN in the civil engineering community is published by (Flood and Kartam,1994).
This research has opened the door for many proposals that suggest ML as the
preferred method to tackle various challenges in the construction industry. Wilmot
and Mei,(2005) introduced an ANN model for expressway construction costs. This
research used the following factors as a base for cost estimation: price of labour, price
of material, price of equipment, pay item quantity, contract duration, contract
location, quarter in which the contract was let, annual bid volume, bid volume
variance, number of plan changes, and changes in standards or specifications. The
main contribution of this work was that it covered all required factors. Nevertheless,
the validation of the proposed method and the data collection process used for training
and testing the results were not fully presented. Furthermore, (Hola and Schabowicz,
2010) developed an ANN model for determining earthworks’ execution times and
costs. Basically, this model was developed on the basis of a database created from
several studies that were carried out during large-scale earthwork operations on the
construction site of one of the largest chemical plants in Central Europe. However, the
validation of the presented results is not mentioned. Petroutsatou et al.,(2012)
introduced the ANN as a technique for early cost estimation of road tunnel
construction. The data collection strategy of this research was based on structured
questionnaires from different tunnel construction sites. The main drawback of this
research was the ignoring of some of the construction cost factors. Jafarzadeh et
al.,(2014) proposed the ANN method for predicting seismic retrofit construction
costs. This study selected data from 158 earthquake-prone schools. The validation of
this method is not clear. Recently, (Al-Zwainy.,2008) used the multi-layer
3. Dr. Tareq Abdul Majeed Khaleel
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 64 editor@iaeme.com
perceptron trainings using the back-propagation algorithm neural network is
formulated and presented for estimation of the total cost of highway construction
projects. twenty influencing factors are utilized for productivity forecasting by ANN
model. four model was built for the prediction the productivity of marble finishing
works for floors. It was found that ANNs have the ability to predict the total cost of
highway construction projects with a very good degree of accuracy of the coefficient
of correlation (R), and average accuracy percentage .
They concluded that neural networks performed the best prediction accuracy but
case – based reasoning indicated better results in long run. Accurate cost estimation at
the early stages of project development is not only a problem for developed countries
but also developing countries. Therefore, there is need for better cost estimation
techniques at the conceptual phase to be developed. The application of ANN systems
is growing rapidly in the financial and manufacturing sectors. Neural network systems
offer several advantages over traditional methods for the prediction of construction
projects' cost and duration. . (Boussabaine,1996).
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK: BACKGROUND
According to Rumelhart et al. (1986), there are eight components of a parallel
distributed processing model such as the neural network. These eight components are
the processing units or neurons, the activation function, the output function, the
connectivity pattern, the propagation rule, the activation rule, the learning rule and the
environment in which the system operates. Neural networks are a series of
interconnected artificial neurons which are trained using available data to understand
the underlying pattern. They consist of a series of layers with a number of processing
elements within each layer. The layers can be divided into input layer, hidden layer
and output layer. Information is provided to the network through the input layer, the
hidden layer processes the information by applying and adjusting the weights and
biases and the output layer gives the output (Karna and Breen 1989). Each layer may
have a number of processing units called neurons. The inputs are weighted to
determine the amount of influence it has on the output (Karna and Breen 1989), input
signals with larger weights influence the neurons to a higher extend. An activation
function is then applied to the weighted inputs, to produce an output signal by
transforming the input. The input can be a single node or it may be multiple nodes
depicting different parameters where each of the input nodes acts as an input to the
hidden layer. The hidden layer consists of a number of neurons/nodes which calculate
the weighted sum of the input data.
Figure (1) shows how neural network adjusts the weights and biases by comparing
the output with the target. The weights are not fixed but they change over time by
gaining experience after several iterations (Rumelhart et al. 1986). Artificial neural
networks are used in pattern classification, clustering/categorizing, function
approximation, predicting, optimization, control and content-addressable memory
(Jain et al. 1996).
4. Development of The Artificial Neural Network Model For Prediction of Iraqi Expressways
Construction Cost
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 65 editor@iaeme.com
Figure 1 Correction of error using target data (Demuth, 2006)
Back-propagation algorithm is simple and effective in solving large and difficult
problems (Alavala, 2008). Thus, it is used in learning process of the model. It
consists of two phases: forward pass and backward pass (Beale and Jackson, 1990).
In forward pass, the parameters of the input variables pass though the functions of the
network and an output data is produced, in the end. In backward pass, firstly the error
is calculated by subtracting the actual output from desired output. Then, it is
propagated backward through the network. The weights are adjusted during the
backward pass (Ayed, 1997). This process optimizes the weight parameters of the
model, decrease the error value and increase the prediction power of the ANN model.
There are methods that significantly improve the back-propagation algorithm’s
performance (Haykin, 1999):
Sequential versus batch update: When the training data set is large and highly
redundant, sequential mode of back propagation learning could be preferred than
the batch mode of the algorithm.
Maximizing information content: The training data should be strong enough to
maximize the learning rate or the model. There are two ways to form such strong
training information; using data that is having the largest training error, and
using data that is oppositely different the other data used before.
Activation function: Using sigmoid activation function increases the learning
ability of the model. Applying hyperbolic tangent, a nonlinear sigmoid
antisymmetric activation function of sigmoid nonlinearity, is popular in this way.
Learning from hints: Learning from a set of training examples deals with an
unknown input-output mapping function.
Learning rates: Learning rate values are important for the network in learning
process. Neurons with many inputs should have smaller learning rate parameter,
or vice versa.
2. BACKGROUND OF EXPRESSWAYS COST PREDICTION
The variations of several parameters that influence a construction project costs create
complexities for developing an accurate model of future Expressways construction
costs determination. However, there have been numerous publications describing
methods and techniques that approximate the future projects‟ costs. Thus, the aim of
this research is to develop a sufficient and accurate method of forecasting the costs of
the future Expressways ‟ construction. The compiled data have been initially analyzed
based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).
Input
Neural network computes
weights
Compare with
target
Adjust weights computes
weights
5. Dr. Tareq Abdul Majeed Khaleel
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 66 editor@iaeme.com
3. IDENTIFICATION OF ANN MODEL VARIABLES
One of the most important tasks of this objective is to determine which variables are
important indicators. Once the appropriate variables have been determined, the cost
estimation can be performed either using a neural network or any other tool, such as
regression analysis.
This research describes the development of neural network models of total cost
structure work of Expressways project based on recent historical projects data. The
initial impetus for the research was the paucity of data available that can provide
reliable information about the costs. The data used to develop the neural network
model of estimation of the cost were past expressway contract data from Iraq from
2010 to 2014.
The model input variables for this model were consisting of six variables (i.e. V1,
V2, V3, V4, and V5and V6). There are two types of variables that might affect the
estimation of expressway project construction cost objective variables and subjective
variables
Objective variables: This type comprised eleven variables, as the following
V1 Length of the Pavement in (km)
V2 Capacity –the number of standard Width lanes
V3 Interchanges- number of expressway interchanges
V4 Number of Stream Crossing
b) Subjective variables: This type comprised nine variables, as the following
V5 Material- this classifies pavement as flexible and rigid. And assigns the values of 1 and 2
respectively to them
V6 Furnishing- Expressway furnishing level; without (1), normal (2), high standards (3).
3. DEVELOPMENT OF ANN MODEL
In an effort to develop a more realistic cost model, this study attempts to overcome
some of Neural Network drawbacks , and presents it as a simple and transparent
approach for use in construction. Accordingly, a three-layer Neural Network has been
simulated on a (NEUFRAME, Version 4) program that is easy to use, transparent, and
customary to many practitioners in construction. The simulation of Neural Networks
on a NEUFRAME program presents its underlying mathematical formulas in a simple
and fully controllable form. . Figure (2) shows the scheme of the NEUFRAME 4
program which is built to determine the relationship between the independent
variables (inputs) and the dependent variable (output).
Artificial neural network models need to be in a systematic manner to improve its
performance. Such Method needs to address major factors such as, development of
model inputs, data division and pre-processing, development of model architecture,
model optimization (training), stopping criteria, and model validation, (Shahin et al,
2002) . These factors are explained and discussed below.
6. Development of The Artificial Neural Network Model For Prediction of Iraqi Expressways
Construction Cost
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 67 editor@iaeme.com
Figure 2 Graphing Component of NEUFRAM 4 Program
4. MODEL INPUTS AND OUTPUTS
The selection of model input variables that have the most significant impact on the
model performance is an important step in developing ANN models. Presenting as
large a number of input variables as possible to ANN models usually increases
network size, resulting in a decrease in processing speed and a reduction in the
efficiency of the network, (Shahin, 2003)
It is generally accepted that eleven parameters have the most significant impact on
the cost estimation of Expressways projects, and are thus used as the ANN model
inputs. These include Objective variables and Subjective variables
The output of the model is the cost of Expressways project. A code is used in this
research to identify the names of the different models developed. The code consists of
two parts separated by a hyphen. The first part represents an abbreviation of the
current output (i.e. Total Cost Expressways, ID). The second part denotes the model
number. Hence, for example “TCE –1” represents Total Cost model number one.
5. PRE-PROCESSING AND DATA DIVISION
Data processing is very important in using neural networks successfully. It determines
what information is presented to create the model during the training phase. It can be
in the form of data scaling, normalization and transformation. Transforming the
output data into some known forms (e.g. log., exponential, etc.) may be helpful to
improve ANN performance. Thus, the logarithm of total cost Expressways is taken
before introducing forward in the next steps.
The next step in the development of ANN models is the division of the available
data into their subsets, training, testing and validation sets. trail–and-error process was
used to select the best division, by using Neuframe software. The network that
performs best with respect to testing error was used in this work (compared with other
criteria to evaluate the prediction performance, training error and correlation of
validation set). Using the default parameters of the software, a number of networks
with different divisions were developed and the results are summarized in table (1) It
can be seen that the best data subsets division is (80-10-10) % according to lowest
testing and training error coupled with highest correlation coefficient of validation set
(90.30%). Thus, this division was used in this model
7. Dr. Tareq Abdul Majeed Khaleel
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 68 editor@iaeme.com
Table 1 Effect of data division on performance of ANNs
Data Division training
error%
testing
error%
coefficient
correlation(r)%Training% Testing% Querying%
65 20 15 8.90 9.00 77.35
60 20 20 7.23 8.40 70.88
60 15 25 7.85 7.57 76.59
65 15 20 7.40 7.48 68.64
50 30 20 7.36 7.44 77.64
70 15 15 7.56 7.35 79.64
65 10 25 7.55 7.21 81.26
70 12 20 6.75 6.98 81.42
70 15 20 7.18 6.98 81.52
80 10 10 6.14 5.94 90.30
The effects of using different choices for divisions (i.e. striped, blocked, and
random) were investigated and it was shown in table (2), it can be seen that the
performance of ANNs model was relatively insensitive to the method of division. The
better performance was obtained when the striped division was used, according to
lowest testing (5.94%) and training error (6.14%) coupled with highest correlation
coefficient of validation set (90.30%).
Table 2 Effects of method division on ANNs performance
Data Division% choices
of division
training
error%
testing
error%
coefficient
correlation(r)%Training Testing Querying
80 10 10 Striped 6.14 5.94 90.30
80 10 10 Blocked 9.99 8.98 77.90
80 10 10 Random 9.09 8.88 75.50
6. SCALING OF DATA
Once the available data have been divided into their subsets, the input and output
variables are pre-processed by scaling them to eliminate their dimension and to ensure
that all variables receive equal attention during training. Scaling has to be
commensurate with the limits of the transfer functions used in the hidden and output
layers (i.e. –1.0 to 1.0 for tanh transfer function and 0.0 to 1.0 for sigmoid transfer
function). The simple linear mapping of the variables,
extremes to the neural
network’
s practical extremes is adopted for scaling, as it is the most commonly used
method, (Shahin, 2003). As part of this method, for each variable x with minimum
and maximum values of xmin and xmax, respectively, the scaled value xn is calculated
as follows:
minmax
min
n
xx
xx
x
(1)
8. Development of The Artificial Neural Network Model For Prediction of Iraqi Expressways
Construction Cost
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 69 editor@iaeme.com
7. MODEL ARCHITECTURE, OPTIMIZATION AND STOPPING
CRITERIA
One of the most important and difficult tasks in the development of ANN models is
the determination of the model architecture. The network that performs best with
respect to the lowest testing error followed by training error and high correlation
coefficient of validation set was retrained with different combinations of momentum
terms, learning rates and transfer functions in an attempt to improve model
performance. Consequently, the model that has the optimum momentum term,
learning rate and transfer function was retrained a number of times with different
initial weights until no further improvement occurred.
The network of (Model 2) is set to one hidden layer with default parameters of
software (learning rate equals to 0.2 and momentum term equals to 0.8). A number of
trials were carried out with one hidden layer and 1, 2, 3…, 21 hidden layer nodes
(2I+1) (where I the number of input nodes) and the results are graphically in figure.
(3). It can be seen that the two hidden nodes have the lowest prediction error. Thus, it
was chosen in this model.
Figure 3 Performance of ANNs model with different hidden nodes (Model 2)
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
No. of Nodes
TrainingError
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
No. of Nodes
TestingError
72.5%
77.5%
82.5%
87.5%
92.5%
97.5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
No. of Nodes
CorrelationCoeff.(r)
9. Dr. Tareq Abdul Majeed Khaleel
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 70 editor@iaeme.com
Figure (3) shows that the network with two hidden node has the lowest prediction
error for the testing test (5.60%). Therefore, two hidden node was chosen in this
model. It is believed that the network with two hidden node is considered optimal.
The effect of the momentum term on model performance was investigated for the
model with two hidden nodes (learning rate = 0.20). The results are summarized in
table (3). It can be seen that the optimum value for momentum term is 0.8, which has
the lowest prediction error; hence it was used in this model.
Table 3 Effects Momentum Term on ANNs performance (Model 2)
Parameters
Effect
Momentum
Term
training
error%
testing
error%
coefficient
correlation(r)%
Model No.
(TCSW-2)
choices of division
(Striped)
Learning Rate
(0.2)
No. of Nodes
(2)
Transfer function in
hidden layer
(Sigmoid)
Transfer function in
output layer
(Sigmoid)
0.1 7.69 5.74 85.44
0.2 7.59 5.74 85.66
0.3 7.49 5.73 86.55
0.4 7.48 5.73 86.85
0.5 7.48 5.74 86.95
0.6 7.38 5.75 86.77
0.7 7.29 5.77 87.99
0.8 7.20 5.60 90.55
0.9 7.54 5.82 88.44
In addition, the effect of the learning rate on the model performance was
investigated (momentum term = 0.8) for Model 2. The results are summarized in table
(4). the optimum value for learning rate is 0.2, which have lowest prediction error,
hence it was used in this model.
Table 4 Effects Learning Rate on ANNs performance (Model 2)
Parameters
Effect
Learning
Rate
training
error%
testing
error%
coefficient
correlation(r)%
Model No.
(TCE-2)
choices of division
(Striped)
Momentum Term
(0.8)
No. of Nodes
(2)
Transfer function in
hidden layer
(Sigmoid)
Transfer function in
output layer
(Sigmoid)
0.1 6.98 6.83 87.97
0.2 7.20 5.60 90.55
0.3 7.42 5.86 88.78
0.4 7.44 5.87 88.76
0.5 7.45 5.91 89.22
0.6 7.49 5.94 89.76
0.7 7.46 6.99 89.57
0.8 7.46 6.99 89.12
0.9 7.65 7.00 89.20
10. Development of The Artificial Neural Network Model For Prediction of Iraqi Expressways
Construction Cost
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 71 editor@iaeme.com
The effects of using different transfer functions (i.e. sigmoid and tanh) were
investigated and it was shown in table (5), it can be seen that the performance of
ANNs model was relatively insensitive to the type of the transfer function. The better
performance was obtained when the tanh transfer function was used for hidden and
output layers, which have lowest prediction error coupled with highest correlation
coefficient (r).
Table 5 Effects of transfer function on ANNs performance (Model 2)
Parameters
Effect
Transfer Function
training
error%
testing
error%
coefficient
correlation(r)%
Hidden
Layer
Output
Layer
Model No.
(TCE-2)
choices of division
(Striped)
No. of Nodes
(2)
Momentum Term
(0.8)
Learning Rate
(0.2)
sigmoid sigmoid 7.20 5.60 90.55
tanh tanh 7.88 7.68 88.66
sigmoid tanh 7.84 7.74 85.53
tanh sigmoid 7.88 7.58 80.03
8. ANNS MODEL EQUATION (MODEL 2)
The small number of connection weights obtained by Neuframe for the optimal
ANNs model (Model TCE-2) enables the network to be translated into relatively
simple formula. The structure of the ANNs model is shown in figure. (7), while as
connection weights and threshold levels (bias) are summarized in table (10).
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Figure 7 Structure of the ANNs optimal model (TCE-2)
TCE-2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X6
9
11. Dr. Tareq Abdul Majeed Khaleel
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 72 editor@iaeme.com
Table 10 Weights and threshold levels for the ANNs optimal model (Model TCSW-2)
Hidden
layer
nodes
wji (weight from node i in the input layer to node j in the hidden layer) Hidden
layer
threshold θj
i=1 i=2 i=3 i=4 i=5
j=7
0.433 0.169 -0.300 -0.400 -0.500
0.11i=6
-0.211
j=8
i=1 i=2 i=3 i=4 i=5
0.39
-0.800 -0.199 -0.500 -0.511 -0.200
i=6
0.333
Output
layer
nodes
wji (weight from node i in the hidden layer to node j in the output layer) Output
layer
threshold θji=7 i=8
j=9 -0.10 -0.835 0.31
Using the connection weights and the threshold levels shown in Table (10), the
predicted of total cost can be expressed as follows:
)tanh0.835tanh10.031.0( 21
1
1
xx
e
TCE
(2)
Where:
X1= {θ7+ (w7-1*V1)+(w7-2*V2)+(w7-3*V5)+(w7-4*V7)+(w7-5*V7)+(w7-6*V8) } (3)
X2= {θ8+ (w8-1*V1)+(w8-2*V2)+(w8-3*V5)+(w8-4*V7)+(w8-5*V7)+(w8-6*V8) } (4)
It should be noted that, before using Equation 3 and 4, all input variables (i.e. V1,
V2, V3, V4, V5 and V6), need to be scaled between 0.0 and 1.0 using Equation (1)
and the data ranges in the ANN model training (see Table 7). It should also be noted
that the predicted value of total cost obtained from Equation 6.14 is scaled between
0.0 and 1.0 and in order to obtain the actual value this total cost has to be re-scaled
using Equation (1) and the data ranges in Table (7) The procedure for scaling and
substituting the values of the weights and threshold levels from Table (10), Equations
(2) and (3) and (4) can be rewritten as follows:
12. Development of The Artificial Neural Network Model For Prediction of Iraqi Expressways
Construction Cost
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 73 editor@iaeme.com
55.1
1
11.4
)tanh0.835tanh10.031.0( 21
xx
e
TCE
(5)
And
X1={17.088+(0.1*V1)+(0.03*V2)+(-0.01*V3)+(-0.005*V4)+(0.01*V5)+(-0.01*V6)} (6)
X2={46.8954+(-0.13*V1)+(-0.016*V2)+(-0.11*V3)+(-0.012*V4)+(0.01*V5)+(-0.03*V6)}
(7)
9. VALIDITY OF THE ANN MODEL (MODEL TC-1)
The statistical measures used to measure the performance of the models included:
Where:
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE),
n
A
EA
MAPE
n
i
1
%100*
(8)
Average Accuracy Percentage (AA %)
MAPEAA %100% (9)
The Coefficient of Determination (R2
);
The Coefficient of Correlation (R);
The results of the comparative study are given in Table (11). The MAPE and
Average Accuracy Percentage generated by ANN model (TCE-2) were found to be
11% and 89% respectively. Therefore it can be concluded that ANN model (Model 2)
shows a good agreement with the actual measurements.
Table 11 Results of the Comparative Study
Description ANN for Model TC-1
MAPE 11%
AA % 89%
R 90.0%
R2
81.0%
To assess the validity of the ANNs model for the total cost of expressways project
(TCE), the logarithm of predicted values of TCE are plotted against the logarithm of
measured (observed) values of TCE for validation data set, as shown in figure (8). It
is clear from figure (8). The generalization capability of ANNs techniques using the
validation data set. The coefficient of determination (R 2
) is (81.0%), therefore it can
be concluded that ANNs model (Model 2) show very good agreement with the actual
measurements.
13. Dr. Tareq Abdul Majeed Khaleel
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 74 editor@iaeme.com
Figure 8 Comparison of predicted and observed total cost structure work for validation data
10. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Through the development of expressways construction cost estimation model
using neural network and the development of the proposed program, the following
points are concluded:
a) Neural networks have demonstrated to be a promising tool for use in the
conceptual stages of construction projects when typically only a limited or incomplete
data set is available for cost analysis.
b) In this study, one hidden layer with two hidden node for model (TCE-2) is
practically enough for the neural network analysis. The findings show that one ANN
model is able to learn the cause-effect relationships between input and output, during
the training stage, and obtained Average Accuracy percentage (AA) of 89% and the
coefficient of correlation (R) was 90.0%
Finally, future research directions are suggested for cost estimation in order to
overcome the gaps that have been discussed. These directions are as follows.
Providing cost estimation proposals that encourage the acquisition of human
expertise: however, this releases the construction cost estimation from human
dependability. Computerized expert systems are the better mechanism that might be
used to replace human expertise.
Developing several ANN models to demonstrate the ways in which different types of
civil engineering problems ensure the successful development and application of this
technology to civil engine erring problems.
A research may be done on applying the same techniques to develop managements
systems for production rates of any constructions operations such as: earthmoving,
concreting etc.
R2
= 0.8105
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Logarithm of Observed Total Cost
LogarithmofPredictedTotalCost
R2
=0.81
14. Development of The Artificial Neural Network Model For Prediction of Iraqi Expressways
Construction Cost
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 75 editor@iaeme.com
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