Design principles for building networks to survive global warming

1. Information Change Management and Global Warming Bill St. Arnaud Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

3. Global Average Temperature

4. 2010 warmest year ever

5. Global warming since 1970 See the world heating up 1884-2010 in this new NASA animation. http://bit.ly/NasAni 1970-1979 2000-2009

6. CO2 vs Temperature Rule of Thumb: 1°C for 10 ppm CO2

7. Rapid Increase in the Greenhouse Gas CO2Since Industrial Era Began Black Death Allowed Reforestation in Europe and North America reducing CO2 Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age 2000 1800 1400 1600 1200 1000 You are Here

9. 11°C increase in Northern Canada & Europe

10. http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990

11. Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today

12. Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice

13. Nearly 90 per cent of new scientific findings reveal global climate disruption to be worse, and progressing more rapidly, than expected.

14. http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Freudenburg_2010_ASC.pdfMIT

15. Climate Change is not reversible Climate Change is not like acid rain, water management or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions Weaver et al., GRL (2007) All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change

16. CO2 Residence Time

17. Climate tipping points USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

19. The most severe drought in recent history, in the Sahel region of western Africa in the 1970s, had a PDSI of -3 or -4.

20. By 2030 Western USA could see -4 to -6

21. By 2100 some parts of the U.S. could see -8 to -10 PDSI, while Mediterranean areas could see drought in the -15 or -20 range.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39741525/ns/us_news-environment/

23. Can easily break up once sea water gets under ice

24. Originally thought that breakup would take hundreds of years

25. New evidence indicates that breakup will happen within 40 years when planet warms up 1C (we are already up .8C)

26. S ea levels would be 3.3m – 4.8m

27. Ice collapsed as recent as 125,000 years ago

28. IPCC says ice is one of the poorest understood areashttp://news.discovery.com/earth/how-stable-is-the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet.html

29. Ice sheets disappearing 100 years ahead of schedule Projected Sea Rise Ice sheets disappearing 100 years ahead of schedule http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/15/deep-ocean-heat-is-rapidly-melting-antarctic-ice-global-warmin/ Sea levels may rise 3x faster than predicted by IPCC http://climateprogress.org/2009/12/09/sea-level-rise-six-feet-three-times-faster-than-the-ipcc-estimat/

31. Rains submerged one-fifth of Pakistan, a thousand-year deluge swamped Nashville and storms just north of Rio caused the deadliest landslides Brazil has ever seen.

33. …. this could happen European Desert Veluwe Amsterdam Utrecht Rotterdam Den Haag

34. Urgency of Action “We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years. You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it. This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy. Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.” Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1

35. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually! According to IEA ICT will represent 40% of all energy consumption by 2030 www.smart2020.org ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724) Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

36. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 www.smart2020.org Data Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit PCs Are Biggest Problem Telecom & Internet fastest growing

37. Education biggest contributor Per employee Per sector Australian Computer Society Study http://www.acs.org.au/attachments/ICFACSV4100412.pdf

38. Digital vs Traditional appliances

39. Growth Projections Data Centers Half of ICT consumption is data centers In ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEY Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says http://bit.ly/bkeSec Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

40. The Challenge of Energy Efficiency Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes No question it save money, but does little for the environment But greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect) In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy

41. Zero Carbon strategy essential Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissions Anything times zero is always zero Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/ But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.pdf Local wind/solar will be an important component

42. Case study of how to think Carbon instead of Energy Efficiency Electric vehicles are more efficient and cleaner than gas powered automobiles If there was a one to one replacement of gas guzzlers with electric vehicles then the world will be a better place But as demand from developing world for cars increases mostly likely will use electric vehicles Price of gasoline will drive demand for electric vehicles Most electricity will come coal fired plants Electric bicycles in China are now a major source of CO2 emissions As well, early indicators that electric vehicles in North America are being purchase as a second car, and are not displacing gasoline guzzlers Net effect is that electric vehicles globally will increase energy demand and increase GHG emissions Need to think differently and address the real problem of GHG emissions….

43. Electric vehicles versus electric roadways Bigger challenge is to find solutions to insure that all electric vehicles are only charged with clean energy Utilities are not motivate to do this Huge capital costs in upgrading electrical transmission system to support demand from electrical vehicles Utilities will continue to use cheapest energy where ever possible i.e. coal Rather than charging vehicle at home or destination why not charge while travelling – “pathway charging” Roadside solar panels or windmills can charge electric vehicle as it is moving along roadway Automobile can be brought home fully charged to provide supplemental power to the house Banks, drive through restaurants, shopping centers can also provide power to recharge the car batteries “Will that be an electrical charge with your burger?” http://www.solarroadways.com

44. Grand Challenge – Building networks using renewable energy only Most government GHG plans plan to 30-40% of electrical power will come from renewable sources How do you provide mission critical services when energy source is unreliable? Ebbing wind or setting sun Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks Need new energy delivery architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery R&E networks and clouds can play a critical role Not so much in energy efficiency, but building smart solutions that adapt to availability of renewable power

45. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC. It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

46. GreenStar NetworkWorld’s First Zero Carbon Cloud/Internet World’s first zero carbon network Nodes in Ireland, USA, China, Spain and Belgium to be added shortly http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

47. Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004 Virtualization and De-materialization Direct replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact

49. Configuration details and use cases can cause energy/CO2e to vary widely

50. . Servers are the opposite of laptops. usage CO2e is a whopping 77% -91%of lifecycle CO2e.

51. .http://vertatique.com/apple-product-co2e-data-gives-good-guidance-all-gear-use

52. How clouds help reduce CO2 Accenture and WSP Study for Microsoft http://www.microsoft.com/environment/cloud.aspx

53. Case Western pilot with Kindle DX One Kg of printer paper generates 4 Kg of CO2 One Kg of newspaper produces 3 Kg of CO2 Average textbook weighs 2 Kg CO2 cost is 10 Kg Not including shipping and transportation Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45,000 Kg CO2 http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/carbon-footprint-stuff.html

54. Information Management and Global Warming Disaster Planning The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction has joined with the International Council for Science and the International Social Sciences Council to create a new international research program, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR). The program will address the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards. Methods to reduce risk and curb losses through knowledge-based actions need to be built on disaster risk reduction research integrated across the hazards, disciplines (including natural, socio-economic, engineering and health sciences), and geographical regions. Research will focus on the characterization of hazards, including how they will change with climate, vulnerability and risk and effective decision making in complex and changing risk contexts. The desired legacy is that when similar events happen in the future there are major reductions in the impacts and loss of lives. http://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/issues/story.aspx?aid=1000385582

55. Final remarks The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions Think carbon, not energy We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networks Huge potential for innovation and new business opportunities for green communications enabled applications because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

56. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going E-mail list Bill.St.Arnaud@gmail.com Blogspot Bill St. Arnaud http://green-broadband.blogspot.com Twitter http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud