The document discusses the urgent need for universities to adopt low or zero carbon solutions to address climate change, emphasizing that traditional energy efficiency measures are often counterproductive. It highlights the role of research and education networks in facilitating innovative clean energy alternatives, as existing carbon reduction strategies are insufficient to meet future demands. The urgency for radical change is underscored by the projected inevitability of irreversible climate shifts and the limitations of current climate action plans.

1. Critical Role that R&E networks and clouds will play in helping universities reduce their carbon footprint Bill St. Arnaud [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

2. Theme of this talk Climate Change is real and is happening much faster than the most pessimistic forecasts Traditional solutions at most universities to address climate change – particularly energy efficiency are insufficient and in some cases counter productive We need to move to low or zero carbon solutions and de-couple energy consumption from production of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. Innovation is essential R&E networks and clouds can play a critical role

4. Global Average Temperature

5. 2009 second warmest year ever

6. Spring 2010 warmest ever This is despite a solar sun spot minimum

7. The Earth is Warming Over 100 Times Faster Today Than During the Last Ice Age Warming! http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/program_history/keeling_curve_lessons.html CO 2 Rose From 185 to 265ppm (80ppm) in 6000 years or 1.33 ppm per Century CO 2 Has Risen From 335 to 385ppm (50ppm) in 30 years or 1.6 ppm per Year

8. Climate Forecasts MIT MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2 ° C 11 ° C increase in Northern Canada & Europe http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990 Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6 ° C cooler than today Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice With BAU we are talking about 5-6 ° C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years

9. Climate Change is not reversible Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change Weaver et al., GRL (2007)

10. Climate tipping points USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

11. Arctic Summer Ice Melting Accelerating Relative to IPCC 2007 Predictions Source: www.copenhagendiagnosis.org

12. Urgency of Action “ We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years. You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it. This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy. Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.” Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1

13. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect) In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy

14. More on Energy Efficiency If we add all of the potential savings from energy efficiency, they only abate about 25% of GHG emissions. To make matters worse, the “low hanging fruit” will grow smaller over time, decreasing returns to our efforts. “ To reduce our GHG emissions by 85 percent by 2050, we need radical innovation to provide clean energy alternatives, rather than just using carbon-based fuels a bit more efficiently. ” ITIF Institute - Debunking the Myths of Global Climate Change Offsetting efficiency savings will be more people in the US in the next decase(391 million vs. 305 million), more households (147 million vs. 113 million), more vehicles (297 million vs. 231 million) and a bigger economy (almost double in size). Obama's Energy Pipe Dreams http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/21/obama-s-energy-pipe-dreams.html

15. The challenge of utilities Utilities prime motivator is to sell as much power as possible – whether publicly or private owned Utilities are focusing “peak” power demand to avoid investment in new power plants – hence Smart grids and meters As much as possible they want to increase base load power demand which is mostly coal and some nuclear as this is most cost effective power Energy efficiency paradoxically allows utilities to use more GHG producing coal power, rather than costly but environmentally friendly, gas and hydro For public relations purposes, or as ordered by government, they are purchasing expensive “green” power But need to keep coal and nuclear plants operating in case of green power is unavailable Ideally they want to keep coal and nuclear plants operating at 100% because they are most efficient under full load and it is also very difficult for these plants to change power output to match load

16. State Climate Action US STATES 2009 72% Have Climate Action Plans 42% Have GHG Reduction Targets 66% Are Experimenting with Cap & Trade SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009 Virtually all state and federal plans call for 30-40% wind and solar power

17. Zero Carbon strategy essential Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissions Anything times zero is always zero Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/ But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.pdf Local wind/solar will be an important component

18. Grand Challenge – Building solutions using renewable energy only Most government GHG plans plan to 30-40% of electrical power will come from renewable sources How do you provide mission critical services when energy source is unreliable? Ebbing wind or setting sun Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks Need new energy delivery architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery R&E networks and clouds can play a critical role Not so much in energy efficiency, but building smart solutions that adapt to availability of renewable power

19. ICT and Cyber-infrastructure and CO2 emissions* It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2 emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire aviation industry. ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, growing at 6% per year One small computer server generates as much carbon dioxide as a SUV with a fuel efficiency of 15 miles per gallon Typical university produces 200,000 – 500,000 metric tons CO2 per year of which 100,000 – 300,000 tons is from Cyber-infrastructure and ICT Back of envelope estimates suggests Higher Ed in US produce 5-10% of all emissions *An Inefficient Tuth: http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49 6

20. Most US Universities Will Become Regulated Entities -- Emitting Over 25,000 Metric Tons CO 2 e SOURCE: American College and University Presidents Climate Commitment, http://acupcc.aashe.org/ Gross Emissions Scope 1 & 2 (CO 2 e) Year US EPA GHG Rule Requires Reporting in 2011? 491,258 2008 YES! 52,2709 2008 YES! 80,498 2007 YES! 234,000 2008 YES! 309, 117 2008 YES! 192,862 2008 YES!

21. The Data Explosion Experiments Archives Literature Simulations Petabytes Doubling every 2 years Consumer The Challenge: Enable Discovery . Deliver the capability to mine, search and analyze this data in near real time The Response: A massive build-out of data centers & HPC facilities Source: Dan Reed Microsoft

22. The Technical Computing Pyramid Petascale/Exascale/… Mobile/Desktop computing Laboratory clusters University infrastructure National infrastructure Data, data, data Data, data, data Source: Dan Reed Microsoft & Ed Lazowska UoWash 85% of research computing can be done using clouds http://bit.ly/cC1eQ7 10 2 10 9 Capable Users

23. IT biggest power draw Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Lighting 11% IT Equipment 30-40% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006 Energy Consumption Typical Building Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Manufacturing 25% Buildings 50%

24. Half of ICT consumption is data centers In ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEY Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says http://bit.ly/bkeSec Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) Growth Projections Data Centers Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

25. Digital vs Traditional appliances

26. Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES -Cooling also a major problem in cities But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe Get off the Grid!

27. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cisco Systems , the University of Massachusetts and EMC . It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

28. Zero Carbon Data Centers Hydro-electric powered data centers Data Islandia Digital Data Archive ASIO solar powered data centers Wind powered data centers Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user

29. GreenStar –World’s First Zero Carbon Internet & Cloud Distributed computing architectures, applications, grids, clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, remote instrumentation and sensors, etc. Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks. Develop benchmarking tools to earn CO2 offset dollars for university and ICT department http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

30. GreenStar Network World’s first zero carbon network Nodes in Ireland, USA Spain and Belgium to be added shortly http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

31. Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices 45% maximum savings in energy costs http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/ Computing for the future of the planet http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/ http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

32. Economic Benefits of Green Clouds Cloud computing breakthru! CENIC & PNWGP have connected 10G lightpaths to Amazon compute & storage, OOI CI early user http://bit.ly/aG0a06 Cloud helps universities reduce costs by 74% - more clouds reduce energy costs http://bit.ly/c5mT58 Cap and Trade (state or national) will significantly raise cost of computing on campus E.g Uo Indianna with carbon at $24/ton cost of computing will at $7 million to university bill RGGI wants carbon to go to $100/ton Will Clouds make University Computing Services obsolete? http://bit.ly/bauNiI Amazon joins Top500 supercomputer list with its Cluster Compute service ... http://bit.ly/99zipE

33. Institutions using Google Cloud/Apps

34. Policy Frameworks Cap and Trade e.g. European ETS This is the current favourite instrument being deployed by many governments around the world. Cap and trade systems can be easily gamed and developing meaningful measurable, verifiable and enforceable offset standards may be very tough. Cap and Dividend is a relatively new concept and works on the similar principle as cap and trade except that all monies used to purchase offsets by large emitters are paid in dividends to consumers. The big advantage that jurisdictions with large emissions are not penalized as the money spent on offsets is returned to the constituents in that jurisdiction. There is currently a cap and dividend bill in the US congress. The proposed cap and trade bill in California is also evolving along these lines. Cap and Reward is a variant of cap and dividend where instead of paying cash dividends from the sale of offsets the money is earmarked for the purchase by consumers and businesses of low carbon products and services such as ICT. This creates a virtuous circle where the money earned by the sale of offsets is used to further promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in a given jurisdiction.

35. Virtualization and De-materialization Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004 Direct replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact

36. Case Western pilot with Kindle DX One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of CO2 One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2 One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2 Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45 Tons CO2 http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/carbon-footprint-stuff.html

37. Free Wifi on Buses There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys). In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps. Business bus service in San Francisco offers office on the move – free wifi, femto cell service etc http://www.muniwireless.com/2009/01/14/school-kids-enjoy-wi-fi-on-green-bus/ 32

38. Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs) http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf Pilots in Cleveland, Switzerland, Ottawa, etc Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity + broadband + telephone + cable Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play

39. What are carbon offsets? Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of carbon offsets (ISO 14064) Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc Two types of markets Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc Carbon buying and selling is done through registries or exchanges Pacific Carbon Trust, Montreal Carbon exchange, REGI

40. Carbon offsets to fund research & networks Conference Board report of Canada recommends that research be funded from carbon offsets The Economic and Employment Impacts of Climate-Related Technology Investments http://www.conferenceboard.ca/documents.aspx?did=3586 OECD also recommends that green research be funded through carbon offsets Alberta GHG program allows emitters to invest in research that reduces GHG According to Conference Board of Canada this results in best bang for the buck Estimate will result in $11.8 Billion in benefits to Canada Need to open dialogue with RGGI about funding research and networks from offsets Last year RGGI spent $650m on GHG reduction programs

41. Proposed new funding scenario for R&E networks and cost reduction for universities Many universities are proposing to go carbon neutral and/or mandated to reduce their energy and carbon footprint Purchase of high quality offsets difficult and costly Better to find energy and carbon savings internally Computers, networks and data centers account for 30-50% of energy consumption on campus Video conferencing, eLearning, zero carbon data centers, clouds, grids collaborative cyber-infrastructure, etc should reduce energy consumption New revenue opportunities for R&E networks in helping universities reduce their energy costs http://bit.ly/dqvN70

42. Most R&E networks charge a membership fee or base fee based on size of institution, research dollars or number of students Instead propose to charge membership or base fee based on institution’s energy consumption E.g. 1% of total Kwh for the past year R&E network agrees to provide a variety of services at no charge including “ X” miles of dedicated wavelengths “ Y” Mbps of Internet bandwidth “ Z” hours of video- conference “ W” time on a commercial compute cloud or central storage “ V” allocation on Optiputer or 4K vide conference etc Institution is encouraged to reduce energy consumption and there is penalty in services if they do so New R&E network funding scenario “ Cap and Reward”

43. Building a R&E “5G” wireless network Enabling Innovation with next generation wireless 5G Internet + clouds - technical details http://bit.ly/c3iZsZ 3:18 PM Apr 25th National R&E wireless network for students and researchers Existing 3G and 4G networks cannot handle data load Need to offload data at nearest node or tower at university campus New Wifi standards 802.11u allow for data handoff from 3G networks WiFi nodes can be powered by renewable sources such as roof top solar panel over 400Hz power systems or ethernet power Most applications will run in the cloud

44. Impact of 5G networks The PC is out of the loop The phone and iPad is a sensor platform Processing is done in real time in the cloud Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device Big data analysis Building new virtual networks on the back of existing commercial 3G networks Reinventing a major industry More on revenue opportunities for R&E and open access networks - building next generation "5G" wireless network http://bit.ly/dck1kR Source: Tim OReilly

45. Do your carbon inventory NOW!! You can not earn credits until you do an inventory and calculate baseline emissions RGGI aims for carbon to be $100 per ton in coming years (Currently $12-20/ton) At $100/t of CO2 the cost of GHG emission could be as much $10 - $50 million per year for university in the next decade A lot depends on details of Obama’s cap and trade Conversely university could earn $10 - $50 million per year if a university is zero carbon No revenue potential if university is carbon neutral 21

46. NYSERDA & RGGI incentives Over $100 Million Available to Improve Productivity and Your Bottom Line The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority’s (NYSERDA) Industrial and Process Efficiency (IPE) program offers performance based incentives to help data center owners and operators offset the cost of investments in energy efficiency and IT productivity projects in their data centers. Incentive Caps 50% Project Cost $5 million/facility/year Examples of energy savings projects that may be implemented through these programs include, but are not limited to: Air Flow Management Applications Management Cooling Next Generation Servers Use of Waste Heat Server Load Prioritization and Optimization UPS System Upgrades Storage Consolidation

47. Final remarks The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions Think carbon, not energy We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networks Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

48. Cyber-infrastructure in a Carbon Constrained World http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERM0960.pdf

49. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going Blogspot Bill St. Arnaud http://green-broadband.blogspot.com Twitter http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud E-mail list [email_address]

50. Additional Information Cloud helps universities reduce costs by 74% - more clouds reduce energy costs http://bit.ly/c5mT58 Cloud Computing results in up to 50% savings for government (not counting energy savings) http://bit.ly/cPsT03 Cloud computing breakthru! CENIC & PNWGP have connected 10G lightpaths to Amazon compute & storage, OOI CI early user http://bit.ly/aG0a06 EEE Green House Gas standards for 5G networks and Green ICT http://bit.ly/bqYNyN CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEY Amazon joins Top500 supercomputer list with its Cluster Compute service ... http://bit.ly/99zipE Internet2 and NOAA announce partnership to build NWave, an advanced climate research network to support 80TB of... http://fb.me/v7CVDeFe What A Price on Carbon Would Cost Data Center Operators http://bit.ly/9AOZzH Moving beyond cyber-infrastructure - greening and moving HPC into the cloud http://bit.ly/bNGrXy Industry and universities must prepare for next Y2K - "CO2K" http://bit.ly/9UMpMo Speed Bumps Ahead for Electric-Vehicle Charging - time to get off the grid and out of the box http://bit.ly/aWXrx3 11:41 AM Apr 29th via web Double WOW!! OECD recommends that basic research in ICT should be supported through carbon offset mechanisms http://bit.ly/a8VhNk Green Investment Opportunity for small business - on the move electric car charging http://bit.ly/aaMZND

51. Enabling Innovation with next generation wireless 5G Internet + clouds - technical details http://bit.ly/c3iZsZ 3:18 PM Apr 25th via web Enabling innovation for small business through clouds and R&E networks http://bit.ly/bn28KD Will Clouds make University Computing Services obsolete? http://bit.ly/bauNiI Investment strategies for Smart Grids/ Meters using the Internet http://bit.ly/cx2d28 Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says http://bit.ly/bkeSec 10:42 AM Mar 30th via web Why Cloud Computing Leaders Need to Demand Clean Power http://bit.ly/9jw6Nd 10:25 AM Mar 30th via web 85% of research computing can be done using clouds http://bit.ly/cC1eQ7 The Rise of Research-driven Cloud Computing http://bit.ly/bA9YjL More on building a 5G wireless mobile R&E green network http://bit.ly/a5zQFL 100 Great Twitter Feeds to Follow Green Tech http://bit.ly/bD7EBX More on revenue opportunities for R&E and open access networks - building next generation "5G" wireless network http://bit.ly/dck1kR New revenue opportunites for R&E networks in helping universities reduce their energy costs http://bit.ly/dqvN70