The document discusses the urgent need to address climate change and the role that various policy frameworks, such as carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems, can play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It highlights the increasing carbon footprint of information and communication technology (ICT) and suggests strategies for achieving carbon neutrality in sectors like data centers. The author emphasizes the necessity of transitioning to renewable energy sources and rethinking ICT infrastructure to mitigate environmental impact effectively.

1. The Critical Role that JISC can play in helping society reduce its carbon footprint Bill St. Arnaud [email_address] Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

3. Global Average Temperature

4. 2009 second warmest year ever

5. Jan, Feb Mar 2010 warmest ever This is despite a solar sun spot minimum

6. Climate Forecasts MIT MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2 ° C 11 ° C increase in Northern Canada & Europe http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990 Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6 ° C cooler than today Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice With BAU we are talking about 5-6 ° C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years

7. Climate Change is not reversible Climate Change is not like acid rain or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change Weaver et al., GRL (2007)

8. Climate tipping points USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “ Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

9. 2009-10 Canada winter 4.2C warmer than average

10. Urgency of Action “ We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years. You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it. This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy. Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are just too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the edge of a cliff.” Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=1

11. Policy Frameworks - 1 Carbon tax e.g. Denmark Economists claim that this is the fairest and most easily implementable solution. But in the case of Canada any carbon tax would imply a huge transfer of wealth from Alberta to the rest of the country. Carbon Intensity e.g. Alberta These programs are intended to reduce the amount of CO2 per unit energy. They don’t reduce the overall growth of CO2 emissions, but just slow down the rate of growth. Mandated Carbon Neutrality e.g. BC. This initiative is very popular with governments and is being looked at by many jurisdictions. It allows governments to demonstrate a commitment to reducing CO2 without imposing any taxes or other hardships on voters Energy efficiency Mechanisms e.g. UK. The UK’s CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme (formerly known as the Carbon Reduction Commitment) is that country’s mandatory climate change and energy saving scheme

12. Policy Frameworks-2 Cap and Trade e.g. European ETS This is the current favourite instrument being deployed by many governments around the world. Cap and trade systems can be easily gamed and developing meaningful measurable, verifiable and enforceable offset standards may be very tough. Cap and Dividend is a relatively new concept and works on the similar principle as cap and trade except that all monies used to purchase offsets by large emitters are paid in dividends to consumers. The big advantage that jurisdictions with large emissions are not penalized as the money spent on offsets is returned to the constituents in that jurisdiction. There is currently a cap and dividend bill in the US congress. The proposed cap and trade bill in California is also evolving along these lines. Cap and Reward is a variant of cap and dividend where instead of paying cash dividends from the sale of offsets the money is earmarked for the purchase by consumers and businesses of low carbon products and services such as ICT. This creates a virtuous circle where the money earned by the sale of offsets is used to further promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in a given jurisdiction.

13. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint is Roughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today www.smart2020.org But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually! ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US ( http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724 ) Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

14. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector www.smart2020.org The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 Data Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit Telecom & Internet fastest growing PCs Are Biggest Problem

15. Power Management in Mixed Use Buildings: The UCSD CSE Building is Energy Instrumented 500 Occupants, 750 Computers Detailed Instrumentation to Measure Macro and Micro-Scale Power Use 39 Sensor Pods, 156 Radios, 70 Circuits Subsystems: Air Conditioning & Lighting Conclusions: Peak Load is Twice Base Load 70% of Base Load is PCs and Servers 90% of That Could Be Avoided! Source: Rajesh Gupta, CSE, Calit2

16. Greenpeace says that the energy consumption of cloud computing in 2007 was 622.6 billion kWh, which is 1.3 times larger than reported by the Smart 2020 report. 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* By 2010, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) Growth Projections Data Centers & Clouds Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

17. New UK Super computer The Met Office has caused a storm of controversy after it was revealed their £30million supercomputer designed to predict climate change is one of Britain's worst polluters. The massive machine - the UK's most powerful computer with a whopping 15 million megabytes of memory - was installed in the Met Office's headquarters in Exeter, Devon. Uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run - enough to power more than 1,000 homes. Weather supercomputer used to predict climate change is one of Britain's worst polluters http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1209430/Weather-supercomputer-used-predict-climate-change-Britains-worst-polluters.html

18. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping any gains made in efficiency Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect) In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy

19. Zero Carbon strategy essential Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for ICT services will not effect GHG emissions Anything times zero is always zero Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/ But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.pdf

20. Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES -Cooling also a major problem in cities But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. Can be easily reached by an optical network Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe Get off the Grid!

21. Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act. The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province. 2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007. 2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007. Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral. If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/ton GHG Regulation in British Columbia SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009 Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD

22. Carbon Costs for the University of British Columbia SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009 SOURCE: http://climateaction.ubc.ca/category/emission-sources SOURCE: UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012 2010 2011 2012 Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750 Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910 Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660

23. Zero Carbon Data Center source: Dan Gillard BCnet 04/09 BC’s Green Data Centre MUST be in Proximity to a Clean Source of Power

24. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cisco Systems , the University of Massachusetts and EMC . It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

25. Proposed new funding scenario for R&E networks and cost reduction for universities Many universities are proposing to go carbon neutral and/or mandated to reduce their energy and carbon footprint Purchase of high quality offsets difficult and costly Better to find energy and carbon savings internally Computers, networks and data centers account for 30-50% of energy consumption on campus Video conferencing, eLearning, zero carbon data centers, clouds, grids collaborative cyber-infrastructure, etc should reduce energy consumption Most universities don’t have processes to allocate energy or CO2 costs to individual departments or researchers Significant challenge as appropriating heating, cooling, electricity, computing and networks costs can be very difficult There is no incentive for researchers or educators to adopt low energy or CO2 solutions

26. Most R&E networks charge a membership fee or base fee based on size of institution, research dollars or number of students Instead propose to charge membership or base fee based on institution’s energy consumption E.g. 1% of total Kwh for the past year R&E network agrees to provide a variety of services at no charge including “ X” miles of dedicated wavelengths “ Y” Mbps of Internet bandwidth “ Z” hours of video- conference “ W” time on a commercial compute cloud or central storage etc Institution is encouraged to reduce energy consumption and there is penalty in services if they do so New R&E network funding scenario “ Cap and Reward”

27. GreenStar –Clouds and Virtualization Distributed computing architectures, applications, grids, clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, remote instrumentation and sensors, etc. Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks. Develop benchmarking tools to earn CO2 offset dollars for university and ICT department http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

28. GreenStar Network World’s first zero carbon network Nodes in Ireland, USA Spain and Belgium to be added shortly http://www.greenstarnetwork.com/

29. Economic benefits of follow the wind/sun architectures Cost- and Energy-Aware Load Distribution Across Data Centers http://www.cs.rutgers.edu/~ricardob/papers/hotpower09.pdf Green data centers can decrease brown energy consumption by 35% by leveraging the green data centers at only a 3% cost increase Cutting the Electric Bill for Internet-Scale Systems Companies can shift computing power to a data center in a location where it’s an off-peak time of the day and energy prices are low Cassatt a product that dynamically shifts loads to find the cheapest energy prices 45% maximum savings in energy costs http://ccr.sigcomm.org/online/files/p123.pdf http://earth2tech.com/2009/08/19/how-data-centers-can-follow-energy-prices-to-save-millions/ Computing for the future of the planet http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/dtg/~ah12/ http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/25/data-centers-will-follow-the-sun-and-chase-the-wind

30. The NSF-Funded UCSD GreenLight Project: Instrumenting the Energy Cost of Cluster Computing Focus on 5 Communities with At-Scale Computing Needs: Metagenomics Ocean Observing Microscopy Bioinformatics Digital Media DC Generation Can Be Intermittent Depends on Source Solar, Wind, Fuel Cell, Hydro Can Use Sensors to Shut Down or Sleep Computers Can Use Virtualization to Halt/Shift Jobs Develop Middleware that Automates Optimal Choice of Compute/RAM Power Strategies for Desired Greenness

31. Virtualization and De-materialization Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre, “The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability”, August 2004 Direct replacement of physical goods – 10% - 20% impact

32. Digital vs Traditional appliances

33. Case Western pilot with Kindle DX One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of CO2 One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2 One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2 Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45 Tons CO2 http://www.stewartmarion.com/carbon-footprint/html/carbon-footprint-stuff.html

34. Free Wifi on Buses There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys). In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any bus via Google maps. Business bus service in San Francisco offers office on the move – free wifi, femto cell service etc http://www.muniwireless.com/2009/01/14/school-kids-enjoy-wi-fi-on-green-bus/ 32

35. Carbon Reward Strategy for last mile infrastructure Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power (ESCOs) http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf Pilots in Cleveland, Switzerland, Ottawa, etc Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity + broadband + telephone + cable Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play

36. Do your carbon inventory NOW!! You can not earn credits until you do an inventory and calculate baseline emissions Online training available for IT staff at http://ghginstitute.org/ Stern report – carbon needs to be $100 per ton At $100/t of CO2 the cost of GHG emission could be as much $10 - $50 million per year for university in the next decade A lot depends on post Copenhagen future Conversely university could earn $10 - $50 million per year if a university is zero carbon No revenue potential if university is carbon neutral 21

37. Final remarks The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions Think carbon, not energy We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networks Huge potential for innovation for ICT sector because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

38. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going Blogspot Bill St. Arnaud http://green-broadband.blogspot.com Twitter http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud E-mail list [email_address]

39. Background Slides

40. IT biggest power draw Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Lighting 11% IT Equipment 30-40% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006 Energy Consumption Typical Building Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Manufacturing 25% Buildings 50%

41. Cyber-infrastructure in a Carbon Constrained World http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERM0960.pdf

42. Other sectors (40%) (e.g. manufacturing, coal mining, export transport) Emissions under direct consumer control (35%) Consumer influenced sectors (25%) (e.g. retail, food and drink, wholesale, agriculture, public sector) Heating Private cars Electricity Other transport Consumers control or influence 60 per cent of emissions http://www.cbi.org.uk/pdf/climatereport2007full.pdf

43. Earth’s Climate is Rapidly Entering a Novel Realm Not Experienced for Millions of Years “ Global Warming” Implies : Gradual, Uniform, Mainly About Temperature, a nd Quite Possibly Benign. What’s Happening i s : Rapid, Non- U niform, Affecting Everything About Climate, a nd i s Almost Entirely Harmful. A More Accurate Term is ‘Global Climatic Disruption’ This Ongoing Disruption Is: Real Without Doubt Mainly Caused by Humans Already Producing Significant Harm Growing More Rapidly Than Expected” John Holdren, Director Office of Science and Technology Policy June 25, 2008

44. Virtualization is key Movies and music delivered over Internet Virtual applications Google docs, ESERI In many homes electronic devices consume more power than traditional appliances http://www.iea.org/journalists/headlines.asp MIT’s Sixth sense

45. Zero Carbon Data Centers Hydro-electric powered data centers Data Islandia Digital Data Archive ASIO solar powered data centers Wind powered data centers Ecotricity in UK builds windmills at data center locations with no capital cost to user

46. Emerging “Follow the Sun” Technologies The ability to migrate entire virtual machines (routers and computers) to alternate data centres exists. Over HS networks the latency is tiny and transfer is invisible to the user. Happens instantly without user knowledge, action or intervention Nortel’s research labs developed and conceived the “Virtual Machine Turntable in 2006 and through collaboration with R&E networks in the US, Canada, Netherlands, and South Korea proved viability.

47. Power Consumption of IP network Source: Rod Tucker

48. Challenge of efficiency Source: Rod Tucker

49. Traditional Internet Backbone ISP1 Backbone ISP 3 Backbone ISP 2 IX IX Regional ISP Large Content Provider with multiple servers Small Content Provider Last mile ISP Last mile ISP User’s Computer User’s Computer Thousands of miles Fiber Networks

50. Information Internet – zero carbon Backbone ISP1 Backbone ISP 3 Backbone ISP 2 IX IX Regional ISP Large Content Provider Small Content Provider Last mile ISP Last mile ISP User’s Computer User’s Computer Cloud CDN Content hosted in ACI Nearby

51. New Internet Increasingly most connections will be local to nearest IX where user will connect to cloud, CDN or social network Connections to another user or computer at the edge of the cloud will be less common Network topologies and architectures will be driven by application and content rather than connecting users “end-to-end” Cyber-infrastructure and UCLP were forerunners of these development Future wireless networks are likely to also evolve in this manner Don’t need an end to end network for accessing applications and content User white space and wifi to provide data to cell phones Next network neutrality battleground will be “last inch” – open devices and “last tower” - Much easier to deploy zero carbon Internet CDN, clouds and social network infrastructure can be built along GSN model Users will increasingly use solar powered iPhone, iPad to access information and applications Stay tuned for upcoming paper

52. GENI Topology optimized by source destination Source: Peter Freeman NSF Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Sensor Network Thin Client Edge Site Mobile Wireless Network

53. GENI with router nodes at renewable energy sites Sensor Network Thin Client Edge Site Source: Peter Freeman NSF Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Topology optimized by availability of energy Mobile Wireless Network

54. Building a “5G” wireless network Over 100,000 cell phone towers to be powered by renewable energy by 2012 Vertical axis turbines and solar Ericsson (Montreal) world leader in these developments

55. Federal Climate Regulation October 2009 The EPA Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule (March 2009) in response to Public Law 110-161 (08 Appropriations) 25,000 Tons or More Must Report to EPA. Waxman-Markey H.R. 2454 passes the House in July 2009 by a vote of 219 Ayes, 212 Nays, 3 Present 17% CO 2 Reduction by 2020. Federal Cap and Trade System. Kerry-Boxer Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act More aggressive CO 2 reduction targets then Waxman-Markey (20% by 2020 over 2005, 80% by 2050). Cap and Trade becomes “Pollution Reduction & Investment”. NYT, 9.30: Best guess is as of September 30 there are about 45 yes votes for the legislation.

56. State Leadership on Climate STATES 2009 -72% Have Climate Action Plans -42% Have GHG Reduction Targets -66% Are Experimenting with Cap & Trade SOURCE: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate101-State Actions, January 2009 Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD- CALIT2

57. TD Bank Has achieved 100 % carbon neutrality through mostly relocating servers and computers from USA to Canada and purchasing RECs Over 11,000 bank branches in USA Intends to reduce purchase of offsets because of problem of finding high quality offsets Have implemented a charge back, cap and reward system, but have not defined rewards Managers for the time being are assigned credits to be applied in a future cap and reward system

58. BC Government One of the first jurisdictions to mandate carbon neutrality in public sector Has resulted in huge boost in morale for government employees as they are all engaged in finding solution Plan to implement a full charge back and cap and trade system Currently all travel and IT energy expenditures must be recorded in GHG management database Government expects to save between 700k- 1000K mTCO 2 e this year = approx $25 million in savings Additional savings in energy and travel

59. Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet Huge jump in carbon footprint from telecom and Internet http://bit.ly/4MVcET About 37 percent of the carbon footprint of the entire information and communication technology sector (ICT) in 2007 was due to the energy consumption of telecom infrastructure and devices, according to the Climate Group (14 percent came from data centers, and 49 percent came from PCs and peripherals). Contrast that with telecom’s carbon footprint figure in 2002 which was 28 percent of ICT’s carbon footprint.

60. Cisco Europe Ultimate aim is to create carbon dashboard for each employee showing their instantaneous carbon emissions Currently have a carbon scorecard for each country and major department in Europe Managers are measured against both financial and carbon budgets Strategy is to represent a tonne of carbon in more easier understood terms such as liters of gasoline, flight numbers etc Biggest savings are from travel avoidance and energy reduction as opposed to CO 2 reduction Planning to implement a cap and reward system in the near future

61. US Government President Obama's Executive Order 13514 the Federal Government is pursuing at least a 20% reduction in green house gas emissions by 2020. Federal CIO Council and agency CIOs may take on the challenge of reducing the impact of agency computing equipment, but so far there has been no concrete progress . Most significant government efforts have revolved around consolidated data centers. The electricity costs for servers and data centers for the US government has grown $450 million in 2006, and it apparently is doubling every five years. That means the cost of the electricity for the federal government’s data centers could, in theory, be $900 million next year. A 1998 survey of federal agencies identified 432 agency data centers. The US government is beginning the largest data center consolidation in history, hoping to dramatically reduce IT operations that are currently distributed among more than 1,100 data centers.

62. Analysis Most green programs are in their infancy – lots of experimentation Most organizations are moving away from purchasing external carbon offsets to establishing internal markets Finding high quality external offsets is extremely difficult Most companies are achieving carbon neutrality through purchase of RECs and internal savings Most organizations are looking to energy consumption, travel and IT as the primary ways to reduce CO2 Most organizations are starting to implement charge back mechanisms and allocate carbon & energy costs to individual departments Major challenges is that facilities people (heat and lighting) are largely responsible for most energy consumption and there is no tools to allocate per department Often building management is contracted to 3 rd parties e.g. Federal government uses SNC – Lavalin Third party management may, or may not have incentive to reduce energy Most IT costs are buried within overall electrical consumption and difficult to extract separately Cap and reward systems and Green IT are just starting to be explored Hindered by lack of quantitative information on energy & carbon savings of different strategies