GE Shipping

1QFY2011 Result Update | Shipping
July 30, 2010

The Great Eastern Shipping Co. BUY
CMP Rs287
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs396
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 %chg (yoy) 4QFY10 % chg (qoq) Investment Period 12 Months
Net sales* 644 721 (10.6) 767 (16.0)
# Stock Info
EBITDA* 261 257 1.8 316 (17.2)
OPM margin (%) 40.6 35.6 495bp 41.2 (60bp) Sector Shipping
PAT 172 154 11.4 156 10.3 Market Cap (Rs cr) 4,377

Note:*Excl. gain from sale of vessels; #Excl. gain/(loss)from forex transactions Beta 1.2
52 Week High / Low 345/227
GE Shipping’s (Gesco) 1QFY2011 results were above our estimates on account of
strong performance in the offshore segment. However, the shipping segment was Avg. Daily Volume 155,874
impacted by repricing of product tankers at a lower rate and lower tonnage. Face Value (Rs) 10
Management has reported the current NAV at Rs368/share as against Rs339/share BSE Sensex 17,868
in 4QFY2010. During the earnings call, management indicated that slippages
were to the extent of 30% and 45% in the tankers and bulkers segments, Nifty 5,368
respectively, which led to a check on supply. The company intends to list its Reuters Code GESC.BO
offshore subsidiary (97.6% stake) Greatship Ltd (GIL) by 2HFY2011E, which will Bloomberg
unlock value of its offshore business. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. GESCO@IN
Code
Offshore segment gains momentum: Gesco’s consolidated revenue (excl. gain on
sale of vessels) dropped 10.6% yoy and 16.0% qoq to Rs644cr. The offshore
segment reported strong performance with 45.1% yoy growth in sales to Rs231cr, Shareholding Pattern (%)
driven by increased operating days. The shipping segment posted a decline of
Promoters 30.0
31.6% yoy and 18.9% qoq to Rs497cr due to a 7.6% yoy drop in tonnage (2.66mn
dwt). EBIT margin for the offshore segment was strong at 46.4% (up 2,397bp yoy MF / Banks / Indian Fls 29.6
and 1,594bp qoq). Consequently, EBIDTA margin stood at 40.6% (up 495bp yoy). FII / NRIs /
13.6
Gesco reported Rs44cr towards gain on sale of vessels. Further, it reported non- OCBs
cash gain of Rs41cr because of revaluation of foreign currency, debtors and Indian Public / Others 26.8
creditors and non-cash loss of Rs31cr expensed towards interest in accordance with
AS16 borrowing cost in 1QFY2011. Consequently, reported PAT increased 11.4%
yoy and 10.3% qoq to Rs171.8cr.
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Outlook and valuation: We believe the accelerated phase-out of single hull tankers
will relieve supply-side pressures and keep tanker freight rates at the current Sensex 1.8 16.1 17.1
sustainable level over the medium term. Further, Gesco intends to add eight Gesco (13.1) 13.8 (13.9)
offshore vessels over the next two years, which will likely spur revenue growth in the
offshore segment. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of
Rs396.

Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales* 3,801 2,891 3,100 3,980
% chg 21.4 (23.9) 7.3 28.4
Net profit 1,418 513 745 1,070
% chg (2.4) (63.8) 45.4 43.5
EBITDA (%) 40.8 33.7 37.7 39.7
EPS (Rs) 93.1 33.7 49.0 70.2
P/E (x) 3.1 8.5 5.9 4.1 Param Desai
P/BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 310
RoE (%) paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
29.7 9.4 12.4 16.0
RoCE (%) 13.2 5.3 6.3 9.5
Mihir Salot
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.0 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 307
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.1 8.2 6.6 4.9 mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Excl. gain on sale of vessels

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

GE Shipping | 1QFY2011 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg (yoy) 4QFY10 % chg (qoq)
Revenue* 644 721 (10.6) 767 (16.0)
Total expenditure 383 464 (17.5) 451 (15.1)
EBITDA*# 261 257 1.8 316 (17.2)
EBITDA margin (%) 40.6 35.6 495bp 41.2 (60bp)
Depreciation 105 96 9.0 111 (5.9)
Interest 93 45 108.7 46 100.5
Gain on sale of vessels 44 119 (63.1) 12 (277.2)
Foreign exchange gain/(loss) 41 (103) (67)
Other income 39 45 (13.5) 60 (35.0)
PBT 187 178 5.1 162 15.4
Tax 14 24 (40.1) 7 114.7
Tax rate (%) 7.7 13.5 4.1
Adj. PAT 173 154 12.2 156 11.1
EO/Prior period items 0 0 0
Minority interest (1) 0 0
Reported PAT 171.8 154.2 11.4 155.7 10.3
PAT margin (%) 26.7 21.4 528bp 20.3 635bp
Number of shares (cr) 15 15 15
Adj. EPS (Rs) - quarterly 11.3 10.1 11.4 10.2 10.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Excl. gain from sale of vessels; #Excl. gain/(loss)from
forex transactions

Exhibit 2: Segment-wise performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg (yoy) 4QFY10 % chg (qoq)
Revenue 728 886 (17.8) 839 (13.2)
Shipping 497 726 (31.6) 612 (18.9)
Offshore 231 159 45.1 227 2.1
PBIT 280 223 25.9 209 34.3
Shipping 173 187 (7.5) 140 23.8
Offshore 107 36 199.9 69 55.4
Margins (%) 38.5 25.2 1,338bp 24.9 1,365bp
Shipping 34.8 25.8 909bp 22.8 1,201bp
Offshore 46.4 22.5 2,397bp 30.5 1,594bp
Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Quarterly TCY trend
%chg %chg
Average TCY (US $/Day) 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
(yoy) (qoq)
Crude carriers 40,737 53,292 37,653 34,450 23,819 18,779 17,778 29,322 20,444 (14.2) (30.3)
Product carriers
21,541 28,648 23,120 21,495 17,088 18,865 19,131 17,920 15,485 (9.4) (13.6)
(incl. gas carriers)
Dry bulk 50,619 48,822 30,816 23,264 19,489 17,065 20,964 23,963 24,484 25.6 2.2

July 30, 2010 2


Shipping segment witnessed a slowdown

For 1QFY2011, Gesco reported lower revenue days (-2.3% yoy) and tonnage
(-7.6% yoy). Further, the company witnessed a 14.2% yoy and 9.4% decline in TCY
for crude and product tankers, respectively; while dry bulk reported a 25% increase
at US $24,484/day in 1QFY2011. For 1QFY2011, the company maintained the
spot-time mix for total fleet at 47:53, which is near its historical levels. Crude
tankers and product carriers (including gas carriers) are covered to the extent of
43% and 72% of their operating days, respectively. Dry bulk carriers are covered to
the extent of 46% of the fleet’s operating days. Revenue visibility for the remaining
part of FY2010–11 is nearly Rs467cr.

Update on asset purchase and sales

During the quarter, Gesco modified its contract of building two Suezmax tankers to
three very large crude carriers (VLCCs) with better prospects for the latter as well as
relative pricing. The company sold three older tankers as part of the mandatory
single hull tanker phase out by 2010. Further 2–3 vessels are likely to be phased
out during FY2011.

Moreover, GIL sold PSV Greatship Diya, while it took delivery of PSV Greatship
Rekha and sold it immediately upon delivery. Consequently, the current owned
and/or operated fleet of Gesco and its subsidiaries stands at 29 tankers, six dry
bulk carriers, five PSVs, seven AHTSVs, two jackup rigs and two MPSSV.

Well-capitalised balance sheet

Gesco’s net consolidated debt stands at 0.25x as of June 2010. The company has
a planned capex of US $573mn (US $118mn already paid) in the shipping
segment, resulting in addition of 1.3mn dwt (three tankers and five bulkers) to the
fleet by FY2013E. The company has indicated a delivery schedule of five dry bulk
carriers (three in 4QFY2011 and two in 1QFY2012) and three VLCCs (two in
1QFY2012 and one in 1QFY2013). The planned capex for the offshore segment is
of US $362mn over the next two years (US $125mn already paid), which is likely
to be funded through IPO proceeds.

Non-cash adjustments during the quarter

The company has booked a non-cash gain of Rs41cr in 1QFY2011 v/s loss of
Rs103cr in 1QFY2010 on account of revaluation of bank balances, creditors and
debtors recorded in foreign currency. Moreover, as per provisions of AS-16, non
cash adjustment of Rs32cr has been accounted for under interest cost due to
exchange rate difference between foreign and local currency borrowing costs.

July 30, 2010 3


Exhibit 4: Quarterly revenue trend Exhibit 5: Quarterly EBITDA trend
800 (1.0) 0 350 41.2 40.6 45
700 (10.6) -5 35.6 40
300
600 -10 35
250 28.2
-15 25.4 30
500
(19.7) -20 200 25
(Rs cr)

(Rs cr)
400

(%)

(%)
-25 150 20
300 (27.0)
-30 15
200 100
-35 10
100 -40 50 5
(42.5)
0 -45 0 0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Revenue (LHS) yoy change (RHS) EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 6: Quarterly profitabilty trend
180 40
160 24.1 20
140 11.4
0
120
100 -20
(Rs cr)

(%)
80 -40
60
(64.0) -60
40 (67.9)
20 (81.0) -80
0 -100
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11

PAT (LHS) yoy change (RHS)


Exhibit 7: Global peer valuation
Market Cap P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%)
US$ mn CY10 CY11 CY10 CY11 CY10 CY11 CY10 CY11 CY10 CY11
Tankers
Frontline 2,382 9.7 9.7 2.9 2.8 8.0 7.8 4.4 4.4 29.7 24.7
Overseas Shipholding 1,193 164.1 17.7 0.6 0.6 11.2 8.0 2.3 2.3 -0.1 3.7
Ship Finance Intl. 1,508 8.5 9.2 1.7 1.7 7.0 7.1 9.4 9.4 23.2 18.2
Offshore
Transocean 14,784 6.2 5.6 0.7 0.6 5.0 4.7 2.3 2.3 11.2 11.3
Diamond Offshore 8,271 8.3 8.5 2.1 1.9 4.8 4.9 2.6 2.6 27.9 25.8
Nabors Ind. 5,251 19.9 12.2 1.0 0.9 6.1 5.3 1.9 1.9 4.5 7.2
Aban Offshore* 818 6.0 5.4 1.3 1.0 8.6 8.8 5.2 5.2 24.5 21.3
Dry Bulk
China Cosco Holding 14,044 24.9 20.4 2.2 2.0 13.3 10.4 1.3 1.3 9.4 10.8
China Ship. Dev. 5,019 17.0 12.7 1.5 1.4 10.7 8.0 2.9 2.9 9.0 11.1
STX Pan Ocean 2,166 22.1 12.0 1.0 0.9 15.3 10.3 0.8 0.8 4.9 8.7
Average 28.7 11.4 1.5 1.4 9.0 7.5 3.3 3.3 14.4 14.3
Gesco* 976 5.9 4.1 0.7 0.6 6.6 4.9 2.5 2.0 12.4 16.0
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research; Note: * Fiscal year ending (FY2011E and FY2012E)

July 30, 2010 4


Investment Arguments

Tanker freight rates bottoming out

Though the tanker segment witnessed a slowdown in 1QFY2011, we expect rates
to bottom out with the early signs of growth in US oil demand (gasoline demand
likely to improve going ahead), single hull phase outs and order book slippages to
provide support to the tanker market. The International Energy Agency (IEA)
estimates global oil demand to register a 1.5% CAGR over CY2009–11E,
increasing by 2.6mbd to 87.5mbd as against the decline of 1.5% in CY2009. As
per Clarksons, 13% and 14% of the existing capacity (fleet) of crude and product
tankers will be added in CY2010. However, the accelerated phase-out of single
hull tankers, which accounts for 12% of the world's existing tanker fleet, will relieve
supply-side pressures and keep freight rates at the current sustainable level over
the near to medium term. Gesco will be a key beneficiary of higher tanker freight
rates as it derives around 46% of its consolidated revenue from the tanker
segment.

GIL IPO to unlock value

Gesco intends to list GIL by 2HFY2011E through fresh equity issuance. We believe
this will unlock potential value of the offshore business, which globally trades at
higher multiples than the shipping business due to better stability and high visibility
in earnings. We have valued Gesco's offshore business at 6.5x FY2012E
EV/EBITDA, in line with the global peers, fetching Rs133/share or Rs2,021cr.

Relatively younger fleet

The average age of Gesco’s fleet (35 vessels) is around 10.5 years, which is
relatively young given that most vessels have a life of 25 years. Currently, 84% of
the tanker dwt is double hull. The company has applied depreciation on an
accelerated basis for the vessels that will need to be phased-out by FY2010 as per
the MARPOL’s regulations. Offshore assets such as platform supply vessels and
anchor handling tugs are relatively young and, hence, the company could earn
better rates on such assets.

Exhibit 8: Fleet dynamics

20 19
17

15 13.6
11
10.1 9.3
10
6
5
1
0
Crude carriers Product tankers Bulk carriers Gas carriers

Age Profile (years) Number of vessels


July 30, 2010 5


Outlook and Valuation

We believe the accelerated phase-out of single hull tankers will relieve supply-side
pressures and keep tanker freight rates at the current sustainable level over the
near to medium term. Further, Gesco intends to add eight offshore vessels over the
next two years, which would spur the company’s revenue growth. We have valued
the shipping business on an NAV basis, which fetches Rs263/share (10% discount
to NAV) and the offshore business at 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBIDTA, in line with its
global peers, contributing Rs133/share. Based on our target price of Rs396, the
implied EV/EBITDA, P/BV and P/E multiples work out to 6.0x, 0.8x and 5.6x,
respectively, for FY2012E. Thus, on account of trading at a significant discount to
its global peers, we recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of
Rs396.

Exhibit 9: Trading close to five-year forward P/B

2.0
1.5
1.0
(X)

0.5
0.0
Jun-05

Feb-06
Jun-06

Feb-07
Jun-07

Feb-08
Jun-08

Feb-09
Jun-09

Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09
P/BV 5 year Average P/BV

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Key assumptions
FY2011E FY2012E
Freight rates change (%)
Tanker 5.0 10.0
Dry Bulk (5.0) 5.0
Net Tanker fleet addition (%) 7.8 4.9
Single hull tanker scrapping (mn dwt) 15 25
Source: Angel Research

July 30, 2010 6


Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY21E FY12E
Gross sales 2,142 3,108 3,792 2,857 3,080 3,950
Less: Excise duty - - - - - -
Net sales 2,142 3,108 3,792 2,857 3,080 3,950
Other operating inc. 24 22 9 34 20 30
Total operating income 2,166 3,131 3,801 2,891 3,100 3,980
% chg 6.4 44.5 21.4 (23.9) 7.3 28.4
Total expenditure 1,098 1,745 2,251 1,916 1,932 2,400
Personnel 184 246 303 337 372 478
Repairs & Maintenance 134 178 226 162 180 231
Dir. exp. (excl excep. item) 501 667 1,057 708 667 796
Hire of chartered ships 238 592 569 609 605 756
Others 41 61 96 100 109 139
EBITDA 1,067 1,386 1,550 974 1,169 1,580
% chg 14.1 29.8 11.8 (37.1) 20.0 35.2
(% of Net Sales) 49.3 44.3 40.8 33.7 37.7 39.7
Depreciation 268 355 454 425 468 517
EBIT 799 1,031 1,096 550 701 1,063
% chg 41.4 29.0 6.3 (49.8) 27.6 51.7
(% of Net sales) 36.9 32.9 28.8 19.0 22.6 26.7
Interest & other chgs. 111 162 185 212 280 223
Other income 252 632 542 217 380 309
(% of PBT) 26.8 42.1 37.3 39.2 47.4 26.9
Share in profit of asso. - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 940 1,501 1,453 555 802 1,150
% chg 5.5 59.7 (3.2) (61.8) 44.5 43.5
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 940 1,501 1,453 555 802 1,150
Tax 33 47 45 45 56 81
(% of PBT) 3.5 3.2 3.1 8.1 7.0 7.0
PAT (reported) 912 1,453 1,418 513 745 1,070
Add: Share of asso. earning (0) - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) (0) - - - - -
Prior period items 5 (0) 10 3 - -
PAT after MI (reported) 912 1,453 1,418 513 745 1,070
ADJ. PAT 907 1,454 1,408 510 745 1,070
% chg 7.1 60.2 (3.2) (63.8) 46.3 43.5
(% of Net Sales) 41.9 46.4 37.0 17.6 24.0 26.9
Basic EPS (Rs) 59.9 95.4 93.1 33.7 49.0 70.2
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 59.6 95.4 92.4 33.5 49.0 70.2

July 30, 2010 7


Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Sources of funds
Equity share capital 152 152 152 152 152 152
Preference capital - - - - - -
Reserves & surplus 2,974 4,179 5,080 5,557 6,125 6,981
Shareholder’s funds 3,126 4,332 5,232 5,710 6,277 7,133
Minority interest - - - - - -
Total loans 2,262 2,747 4,266 5,370 4,800 4,100
Deferred tax liability - - - (1) (1) (1)
Total Liabilities 5,388 7,079 9,498 11,079 11,076 11,232
Application of funds
Gross block 5,451 6,590 7,515 8,544 9,102 10,389
Less: Acc. dep. 1,730 1,747 1,853 2,141 2,609 3,126
Net Block 3,721 4,843 5,662 6,402 6,493 7,263
Capital WIP 318 838 1,918 1,101 1,211 1,393
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 159 317 302 2,179 2,179 2,179
Current assets 1,538 1,579 2,713 2,185 1,859 1,184
Cash 1,174 1,236 2,218 1,744 1,515 676
Loans & Adv. 120 108 172 115 126 139
Other 244 236 324 326 217 369
Current liab. & Prov. 348 499 1,098 788 665 787
Net Current Assets 1,190 1,081 1,616 1,397 1,194 397
Misc. exp. not w/off - - - - - -
Total Assets 5,388 7,079 9,498 11,079 11,076 11,232

July 30, 2010 8


Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Profit before tax 940 1,501 1,453 555 802 1,150
Depreciation 268 355 384 425 468 517
Change in Wkg Cap. (153) 100 21 (38) 104 (43)
Less: Other inc & Adj. 3 (108) 231 139 - -
Direct taxes paid (38) (50) (47) (54) (56) (81)
Cash Flow from Operations 1,021 1,798 2,042 1,026 1,317 1,543
(Inc)/Dec in Fixed assets (1,415) (1,972) (1,823) (866) (668) (1,469)
(Inc)/Dec in Investments (74) (229) (39) (1,932) - -
Investments in subsidiaries 3 70 60 25 - -
Other income 89 122 147 112 - -
Cash Flow from Investing (1,397) (2,009) (1,654) (2,662) (668) (1,469)
Issue of equity - 22 3 - - -
Inc/(Dec) in loans 443 636 918 1,558 (570) (700)
Dividend paid (incl. tax) (197) (213) (222) (46) (308) (214)
Others (114) (172) (107) (349) - -
Cash Flow from Financing 132 273 593 1,163 (878) (914)
Inc/(Dec) in cash (244) 63 981 (474) (229) (840)
Opening Cash balances 1,418 1,174 1,236 2,218 1,744 1,515
Closing Cash balances 1,174 1,236 2,218 1,744 1,515 676

July 30, 2010 9


Key Ratios
Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 4.8 3.0 3.1 8.6 5.9 4.1
P/CEPS 3.7 2.4 2.4 4.7 3.6 2.8
P/BV 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
Dividend yield (%) 4.0 5.2 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.2
EV/Sales 2.5 1.9 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.0
EV/EBITDA 5.1 4.2 4.1 8.2 6.6 4.9
EV / Total Assets 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 59.9 95.4 93.1 33.7 49.0 70.2
EPS (fully diluted) 59.6 95.4 92.4 33.5 49.0 70.2
Cash EPS 77.2 118.8 122.2 61.3 79.7 104.2
DPS 11.5 15.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Book Value 205.3 284.5 343.6 374.9 412.2 468.4
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 36.9 32.9 28.8 19.0 22.6 26.7
Tax retention ratio 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.93 0.93
Asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4
ROIC (Post-tax) 21.7 19.8 16.2 6.1 6.9 9.8
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 5.2 6.2 5.1 4.0 5.1 4.7
Leverage (x) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5
Operating ROE 26.2 24.6 20.3 7.1 7.9 12.4
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 16.5 16.5 13.2 5.3 6.3 9.5
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 24.0 23.2 21.1 8.1 8.5 12.1
ROE 32.9 39.0 29.7 9.4 12.4 16.0
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset T/o (Gross block) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Inventory / Sales (days) 6 6 6 10 6 6
Receivables (days) 22 19 18 29 24 20
Payables (days) 96 74 114 149 117 104
Wkg. cap. (ex-cash, days) (12) (8) (36) (60) (39) (28)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5
Net debt to EBITDA 1.0 1.1 1.3 3.7 2.8 2.2
Interest coverage (EBIT/Int) 7.2 6.4 5.9 2.6 2.5 4.8

July 30, 2010 10


Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
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Disclosure of Interest Statement GE Shipping
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

July 30, 2010 11

GE Shipping

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