Fundamental analysis- syam
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Fundamental analysis is the interpretation of statistical reports and economic indicators. Things like changes in interest rates, employment reports, and the latest inflation indicators all fall into the realm of fundamental analysis.
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This document discusses the impact of loose global monetary policy on economic growth and equity markets since the 2008 financial crisis. Central banks around the world expanded their balance sheets significantly through measures like quantitative easing to stimulate their economies. This monetary expansion appears highly correlated with rising asset prices and market performance. However, as interest rates are expected to rise, the effects of tightening monetary policy on market volatility and asset price appreciation require careful portfolio positioning.
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Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
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This document discusses the debate between active and passive approaches to macroeconomic policymaking. The active approach views the economy as unstable and in need of discretionary fiscal and monetary policy to reduce costs like unemployment after shocks. The passive approach sees the economy as stable enough for market forces to correct imbalances over time without intervention. The document outlines arguments for both approaches and considers issues like lags in policy, rational expectations, credibility of policymakers, and debates around the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment.
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The document outlines various measures that can be used to control inflation in an economy. It discusses monetary measures such as credit control through tools like bank rate policy, open market operations, and variable reserve ratios. Fiscal measures for controlling inflation include reducing unnecessary government expenditure, increasing direct taxes, decreasing indirect taxes, and running surplus budgets. Trade measures involve import and export controls. Administrative measures for price control include wage and price controls as well as rationing of scarce goods.
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The central bank uses monetary policy tools like adjusting interest rates and money supply to achieve macroeconomic stability goals like price stability, economic growth, and full employment. It aims to regulate inflation and the money supply through tools like setting bank rates, open market operations, and cash reserve requirements for commercial banks. Both quantitative and qualitative tools are used to influence lending behavior and control the money supply. The central bank plays a critical role in the economy and financial system.
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Stabilization policy
This document discusses stabilization policy and the ability of governments to reduce business fluctuations through fiscal and monetary policy. It covers topics such as:
- How monetary policy can be implemented through changing money supply or interest rates, and how fiscal policy can be implemented through changing government spending or taxes.
- Objections to the effectiveness of fiscal stabilization policy, including the automatic stabilizer effect, Ricardian equivalence principle, and crowding out effect.
- The inflation-output tradeoff described by the Phillips curve and how expansionary policies can increase inflation in the long run.
- How inflation expectations impact the Phillips curve and the ability of governments to permanently affect unemployment through demand policies alone.
- The importance of
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The document provides an overview of the market perspective in September 2017. It notes that while the markets have exhibited little volatility since the 2016 election, corrections of over 5% are actually quite common within a given year. The document also discusses factors like leading economic indicators and the current economic expansion that suggest a recession may not be imminent. It concludes by stating that most economists believe economic conditions remain reasonable, though ongoing monitoring of differences between corrections and bear markets is warranted.
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Business cycle
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This document summarizes the current market environment of historically low interest rates driving high dividend payouts by companies that are likely unsustainable. Specifically, it notes that (1) interest rates being near historic lows have forced investors to seek yield elsewhere, (2) dividend-paying stocks now look very expensive based on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, and (3) current levels of corporate payouts through dividends and stock buybacks exceeding earnings are unlikely to continue amid late-stage economic cycles with limited earnings growth.
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Monetary Policy
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Market Perspectives - May 2017
The document examines several long-held stock market anomalies and legends, such as "sell in May and go away" and the January effect. While the data behind these anomalies seems compelling initially, the document notes that many do not hold up over the long-term or in recent years. For example, a portfolio reflecting "sell in May and go away" did not consistently outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy. The January effect and January barometer also have not predicted market performance reliably in recent years. The conclusion is that investors should stay invested and consider multiple data sources and perspectives rather than relying on isolated anomalies.
Cv amit
Amit Parashar is a mechanical engineer seeking a position where he can learn, share knowledge, and contribute to organizational development. He has over 8 years of experience in mechanical engineering roles. His experience includes tender preparation, project cost estimation, product development, and assembly line work. He is currently a Mechanical Engineer focused on tenders and proposals at ANELKSA L.L.C. in Saudi Arabia.
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If you ever wonder how the interest rates, capital flow and foreign exchange rates are linked, review this slide for a quick glimpse of how these variables work. IMF Stabilization Policy
The IMF has based much of it policies on a theoretical framework developed by Polak, Mundell, and Fleming over fifty years ago. Their models were based on a set of assumptions that a do not reflect the economic realities in the developing countries. The IMF’s insistence on demand management policies created policy “blind spots” that prevented it’s acknowledgment of causes of macroeconomic imbalances other than government fiscal mismanagement. There has been some movement toward reform by the Fund and better alignment with its sister organization, the World Bank. Just as the East Asian crisis momentum for change, recent events seem to have created a significant shift in the thinking of the Fund’s staff and policy analyst. The recent global crisis has caused the Fund to acknowledge the limits of monetary policy and bring fiscal policy “center stage” as an important countercyclical tool. In short, the crisis has “exposed flaws in the pre-crisis policy framework” [Carlos E. Guice, Sr.]
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The business cycle occurs when economic activity speeds up or slows down.
It will helps you to know about the business cycle.
Monitory policy
The central bank uses monetary policy tools like adjusting interest rates and money supply to achieve macroeconomic stability goals like price stability, economic growth, and full employment. It aims to regulate inflation and the money supply through tools like setting bank rates, open market operations, and cash reserve requirements for commercial banks. Both quantitative and qualitative tools are used to influence lending behavior and control the money supply. The central bank plays a critical role in the economy and financial system.
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Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
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The document discusses whether Japan's economy is facing another "lost decade" of weak growth or if it is poised to boom. While Japan's economy has grown weakly for decades and recently contracted further, the Bank of Japan has now committed to a 1% inflation target and other innovative measures that could lead to real GDP growth. If a surge in growth occurs, it would boost Japanese stocks and the global economy. However, time will tell if Japan is truly ready to boom given its history of economic struggles.
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This document discusses stabilization policy and the ability of governments to reduce business fluctuations through fiscal and monetary policy. It covers topics such as:
- How monetary policy can be implemented through changing money supply or interest rates, and how fiscal policy can be implemented through changing government spending or taxes.
- Objections to the effectiveness of fiscal stabilization policy, including the automatic stabilizer effect, Ricardian equivalence principle, and crowding out effect.
- The inflation-output tradeoff described by the Phillips curve and how expansionary policies can increase inflation in the long run.
- How inflation expectations impact the Phillips curve and the ability of governments to permanently affect unemployment through demand policies alone.
- The importance of
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The document provides an overview of the market perspective in September 2017. It notes that while the markets have exhibited little volatility since the 2016 election, corrections of over 5% are actually quite common within a given year. The document also discusses factors like leading economic indicators and the current economic expansion that suggest a recession may not be imminent. It concludes by stating that most economists believe economic conditions remain reasonable, though ongoing monitoring of differences between corrections and bear markets is warranted.
Monetary policy AND TYPES
Monetary policy is used by central banks to control the supply of money and regulate credit in order to promote economic growth and stability. There are two types: expansionary policy aims to reduce unemployment by increasing the money supply during recessions, while contractionary policy aims to reduce inflation by decreasing the money supply during expansions. The tools for changing the money supply include open market operations, interest rates, and reserve ratios.
Business cycle
The document discusses the business cycle, which consists of periodic expansions and contractions in economic activity over time. It describes the four phases of the business cycle: expansion, peak, recession, and trough. Government uses fiscal and monetary policy tools to try to stabilize the economy during fluctuations. The business cycle affects many countries as their economies are linked through trade. While the cycle causes instability, it is an inherent part of economies with private property and competition.
Market Perspectives September 2016
This document summarizes the current market environment of historically low interest rates driving high dividend payouts by companies that are likely unsustainable. Specifically, it notes that (1) interest rates being near historic lows have forced investors to seek yield elsewhere, (2) dividend-paying stocks now look very expensive based on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, and (3) current levels of corporate payouts through dividends and stock buybacks exceeding earnings are unlikely to continue amid late-stage economic cycles with limited earnings growth.
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Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
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The document examines several long-held stock market anomalies and legends, such as "sell in May and go away" and the January effect. While the data behind these anomalies seems compelling initially, the document notes that many do not hold up over the long-term or in recent years. For example, a portfolio reflecting "sell in May and go away" did not consistently outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy. The January effect and January barometer also have not predicted market performance reliably in recent years. The conclusion is that investors should stay invested and consider multiple data sources and perspectives rather than relying on isolated anomalies.
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Master the Forex Market with "Forex Fundamental Analysis: Practical Guide"!
Imagine navigating the ever-changing currents of the forex market with confidence, using the power of fundamental analysis to chart your course towards profit.
Think of it as your financial compass, guiding you to understand the underlying forces that drive currency values, from economic indicators to political events.
With "Forex Fundamental Analysis: Practical Guide," you'll:
Unlock the secrets of fundamental analysis: Demystify key concepts like interest rates, inflation, GDP, and trade balances, and how they impact currencies.
Become a market sleuth: Learn to track and interpret economic data releases, central bank decisions, and geopolitical events to anticipate currency movements. ️♀️
Craft winning strategies: Develop data-driven trading strategies that align with your risk tolerance and investment goals.
Make informed decisions: Gain the confidence to buy, sell, or hold currencies based on your fundamental analysis, not just gut feelings.
Stay ahead of the curve: Access up-to-date insights and resources to stay informed about the ever-evolving forex landscape.
This practical guide is your key to:
Understanding the "why" behind currency movements
Minimizing risk and maximizing potential returns
Building a solid foundation for long-term success in forex trading
No prior knowledge of forex or economics required! "Forex Fundamental Analysis: Practical Guide" starts with the basics and takes you step-by-step through the key concepts, equipping you with the tools you need to navigate the market with confidence.
So, are you ready to:
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Emerging Economy May 2009 Indicus Analytics
Highlights
• As last newsletter predicted, manufacturing recovery has begun.
• Yet, exports will continue to stay depressed, SMEs will take a while to feel the positive swing.
• Prospects for emerging economies brighten, capital flows in.
• Inflows are notoriously fickle, so watch out for any turnaround if political factors disappoint.
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers are coming in clearer every month as Indian manufacturing recovers, thanks to strong domestic demand, due in large part to money from the pay commission, NREGS, high support prices for agri products last year etc. The fiscal stimulus began much before the global crisis hit India. We are not in anyway close to double digit growth, but the slump does seem to be over. Meanwhile, the stock market believes that all is well with the world, which isn’t true, of course, and if the election outcome disappoints in a fractured mandate, expect a rude shock once again.
Lecture # 3 (30.01.2017) @ ibt monetary policy
This document provides an overview of monetary policy and inflation in Pakistan. It discusses key topics such as:
1) The different stages and types of inflation including creeping, walking, running, and hyper inflation.
2) The causes of inflation including demand-pull and cost-push factors.
3) The objectives, instruments and how monetary policy differs from fiscal policy in Pakistan.
4) The instruments of monetary policy used by the State Bank of Pakistan to control inflation including bank rate, cash reserve ratio, open market operations, and others.
Investment Analysis
This document provides an overview of fundamental analysis for investment. It discusses performing economic analysis, industry analysis, and company analysis. Some key points covered include:
- Fundamental analysis examines economic, financial, qualitative, and quantitative factors to evaluate a security's intrinsic value.
- Earnings, growth rates, and risk exposure impact a company's share price.
- Sources of investment information include economic surveys, industry reports, company annual reports, and news.
- Economic indicators like GDP, interest rates, inflation help analyze the economy.
- Industry analysis considers industry classification, growth cycles, and the Index of Industrial Production.
Commodity factors affecting commodity prices 14012011
This document discusses several key economic indicators that affect commodity prices, including:
- Consumer confidence index, consumer price index, employment reports, GDP, and retail sales which measure economic activity and consumer spending.
- FOMC meetings and interest rate announcements which can impact inflation and currency valuations.
- Trade balance, current account, and durable goods orders which provide insights into international trade trends.
- Housing starts and industrial production which track business investment and manufacturing activity.
These economic indicators are closely watched globally as they can signal changes in commodity demand and supply.
economic indicators presentation power point.ppt
This document provides an overview of economic indicators and how they can be used. It defines leading, lagging, and coincident indicators and provides examples of each. Key indicators discussed include GDP, employment figures, inflation rates, and housing data. The document advises using economic indicators to interpret current investment possibilities and the overall health of economies. It also notes that indicators should be viewed in the context of expectations and are important to different types of investments.
intro to macro.ppt
This document provides an overview of macroeconomics. It defines macroeconomics as the study of aggregate economic quantities, such as national income, output, consumption, investment, unemployment and price indices. It outlines the development of macroeconomics from classical economists to Keynes and modern macroeconomic schools of thought. It describes key macroeconomic concepts like equilibrium, stocks and flows. It also explains important macroeconomic goals like full employment and price stability. Finally, it discusses macroeconomic policies like fiscal and monetary policy and their tools, as well as the circular flow of income in closed, open and two-sector economies.
Which Variables Predict and Forecast Stock Market Returns?
This document discusses variables that may predict and forecast stock market returns. It identifies several categories of potential predictive variables, including financial ratios, macroeconomic variables, labor market variables, housing variables, and other indicators. The document notes that the analysis will use US data from various sources from 1973 to 2014 on a quarterly basis to determine which variables provide the greatest predictive power for stock returns.
Economic indicators
The document discusses various economic indicators that are used to analyze the health and performance of an economy. Some key indicators mentioned include:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures total economic output within a country.
- Employment and wage data like the unemployment rate, which can show how many people are working.
- Productivity measures how efficiently factories and businesses are operating.
- Price indices that track inflation rates and cost of living changes.
- Exchange rates, interest rates, and money supply statistics that influence trade and monetary policy decisions.
Monetary Policy in Macro Economics
Inflation is a rise in the general price level over time which reduces purchasing power. The monetary policy aims to control inflation through various tools that impact the money supply and credit availability, such as interest rates, reserve requirements, open market operations, and deficit financing. The objectives are to maintain price stability while ensuring adequate credit flows to support growth. Fiscal policy complements monetary policy and is used to address economic issues like recession through tax/spending adjustments.
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Colombia | May 2013
Last week, in a visit to Bogotá, Colombia, we held a series of meetings with government officials, economists, consultants, fund managers and real estate specialists, as part of our on the ground research effort.
Economic indicators-2.pptx
Economic indicators like GDP, CPI, and unemployment rate measure various aspects of economic performance and stability to provide insights into an economy's health. GDP measures total output and comes in nominal and real forms. CPI tracks price changes to measure inflation. The unemployment rate indicates joblessness. Interest rates, money supply, investment, international trade, consumption, and balance of payments connect and influence economic activity levels and growth.
July 15 I Session 1 I GBIH
- The document discusses rising inflation and its implications for gold and metals. It notes that high commodity prices as seen in the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) imply further inflation as seen in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- Several economic indicators are at record highs, such as the Chicago Fed's labor cost index, suggesting inflation may persist for longer than expected.
- While inflation is typically positive for gold, rising Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve make the short-term outlook for gold uncertain.
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Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trendsLabour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
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Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.Does teamwork really matter? Looking beyond the job posting to understand lab...
Does teamwork really matter? Looking beyond the job posting to understand lab...Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.International Sustainability Standards Board
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Fundamental analysis- syam
- 1. How to simplify FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Syam Kumar Dealer, Cfb
- 2. FUNDAMENTAL OR TECHNICAL???? Let’s say you’re packing to go away on vacation. There are two ways to decide whether to bring an umbrella: You can look at what the weather was at your destination on this date for the last ten years, or you can call up natives and ask them if it feels like rain. This is the difference between Technical and Fundamental Forex analysis.
- 3. FOREX FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Fundamental analysis in Forex is a type of market analysis which involves studying of the economic situation of countries to trade currencies more effectively. ‘It gives information on how the big political and economical events influence currency market’
- 4. EXAMPLE UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop In June, Pound Falls U.K. retail sales unexpectedly dropped in June, causing the British pound to erase its gains versus the U.S. dollar. Sales at retailers slipped 0.2 percent in June from an upwardly revised of 0.3 percent increase, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Thursday. Economists had estimated a 0.4 percent soar As of 08:42 GMT, the pound fell from a high of 1.5668 versus the dollar to trade at 1.5593, while the low was set at 1.5581.
- 6. PRIMARY DUTIES OF CENTRAL BANK • Implement a monetary policy that provides consistent growth and employment • Manage the production and distribution of the nation's currency • Controlling the nation's entire money supply and determining Interest rates. • Promote the stability of the country's financial system
- 7. INDICATORS • PRODUCTION Example: PPI,CPI, PMI, Home Sales etc.. • GEOPOLITICAL Example: war, natural calamities, changes in political and govt. sectors. • EMPLOYMENT Example: NFP, Jobless Claims, Unemployment rate • GROWTH Example: GDP • INFLATION
- 10. SOURCES OF DATA
- 11. ECONOMIC CALENDER • Economic calendar is created by economists where they predict different economics figures and values according to previous months. • It used by traders for the purpose of tracking the occurrence of market-moving events. • Investors will research the date and time of a specific event and pay close attention to the announcement because of the high probability that it will affect the direction of the market.
- 13. THANK YOU If you are not willing to learn, no one can help you. If you are determined to learn, no one can stop you.