The document discusses contrarian investing and provides examples from history. It notes that investors often make the mistake of piling into popular trades, as seen during the tech bubble, while fortunes have been made by remaining calm during crises. Contrarian investing involves taking positions that are opposite the prevailing sentiment. The document examines the tech bubble crash as an example of when contrarian positions were successful. It also identifies some potential contrarian opportunities today in international stocks and high-yielding securities due to possible overvaluations.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?InvestingTips
http://profitableinvestingtips.com/investing-tips/what-impact-would-tighter-monetary-policy-have-on-your-investments
What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?
A new president is about to take office. Successful investors will be the ones who anticipate how the next administration and congress will affect the economy and how the various factors at play will affect investments. In the case of Trump and a Republican controlled congress we expect tax cuts, an attempt to bring corporate cash back from overseas and increased spending on U.S. infrastructure. If these plans come to fruition there will be at least short and medium term stimulus to the economy. A predictable result will also be increased interest rates, namely a tighter monetary policy. The value of the dollar will rise versus other currencies. Our concern today is what impact would tighter monetary policy have on your investments? Bloomberg writes about the outlook on the Fed, Trump and the dollar.
PKO Bank Polski, which topped Bloomberg’s overall accuracy rankings for the final quarter of 2016, sees the dollar’s rise pushing the euro to 95 U.S. cents or even lower by the end of June, a level not seen in 15 years. That’s the lowest call for the pair among 53 forecasters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The forecast is based on the prospects of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, coupled with markets expecting President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal measures to “translate into higher growth and inflation,” said Jaroslaw Kosaty, the chief FX strategist at the bank, Poland’s biggest.
Will the impact of tighter monetary policy be solely because of a stronger dollar? How will inflation be affected if the Fed does not raise rates rapidly enough?
Global bond markets fell in May and June, as investors contemplated the end of massive liquidity from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. The fund’s overweight exposure to the strengthening U.S. dollar aided performance during the quarter, as did our holdings of commercial mortgage-backed securities. Our mortgage credit holdings and our allocation to high-yield bonds generated positive returns early in the period before investors began to shed risk in May, but the positions remained positive overall for the quarter. We have a generally positive outlook for global economic growth and are seeking to capitalize on opportunities in spread sectors exhibiting improved relative value.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?InvestingTips
http://profitableinvestingtips.com/investing-tips/what-impact-would-tighter-monetary-policy-have-on-your-investments
What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?
A new president is about to take office. Successful investors will be the ones who anticipate how the next administration and congress will affect the economy and how the various factors at play will affect investments. In the case of Trump and a Republican controlled congress we expect tax cuts, an attempt to bring corporate cash back from overseas and increased spending on U.S. infrastructure. If these plans come to fruition there will be at least short and medium term stimulus to the economy. A predictable result will also be increased interest rates, namely a tighter monetary policy. The value of the dollar will rise versus other currencies. Our concern today is what impact would tighter monetary policy have on your investments? Bloomberg writes about the outlook on the Fed, Trump and the dollar.
PKO Bank Polski, which topped Bloomberg’s overall accuracy rankings for the final quarter of 2016, sees the dollar’s rise pushing the euro to 95 U.S. cents or even lower by the end of June, a level not seen in 15 years. That’s the lowest call for the pair among 53 forecasters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The forecast is based on the prospects of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, coupled with markets expecting President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal measures to “translate into higher growth and inflation,” said Jaroslaw Kosaty, the chief FX strategist at the bank, Poland’s biggest.
Will the impact of tighter monetary policy be solely because of a stronger dollar? How will inflation be affected if the Fed does not raise rates rapidly enough?
Global bond markets fell in May and June, as investors contemplated the end of massive liquidity from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. The fund’s overweight exposure to the strengthening U.S. dollar aided performance during the quarter, as did our holdings of commercial mortgage-backed securities. Our mortgage credit holdings and our allocation to high-yield bonds generated positive returns early in the period before investors began to shed risk in May, but the positions remained positive overall for the quarter. We have a generally positive outlook for global economic growth and are seeking to capitalize on opportunities in spread sectors exhibiting improved relative value.
SII-PIV 54 Spatial and Environmental Injury Surveillance, based on Cape Town, South Africa. So what is the project about? It is about seeing if we can use the geospatial web to work with trauma surgeons, nurses, health officials, to represent trauma injury data in a useful way. It is very informal due to working with coarse data, poor and dangerous neighbourhoods. We focus on ‘one on one’ interactions between the user and the application. And lastly, we hope that these tools will be practical in the health world.
A brochure on BHUNGROO, an innovative technology (awarded by UN and World Bank). Bhungroo ensures food security and lean season irrigation to small holders. It enables farmers to cope with drought and also curtails desertification of landholding. its implemented within Gandhian thought of Antodaya (ie serving the last person in the queue in the best possible way) with a special focus on ultra poor women small holders
4 active vs passive advisor insert funds flows dfa (advisor present) p. 1-3, ...Weydert Wealth Management
This excellent article contains three key graphics illustrating how average investors flow into and out of investments at the wrong times and contrasts this with the average DFA investor who remains much more consistent and disciplined.
Carla Zevnik-Seufzer • The Strategic Financial Alliance
- The problem with pie charts by Greg Gann
- Oil price surge troubling, but still within ranges
- Serving special needs (Russell Luce, Foresters Equity Services, Inc.)
Chuck Bigbie • Geneos Wealth Management
- Investor confusion about passive investing: three common misconceptions about passive investing by Jerry Wagner
- Second quarter earnings in focus
- Simple is better for client reviews (Kimble Johnson, LPL Financial)
Daniel Namey • H. Beck, Inc.
- The (not so) indomitable investor: 9 reasons most investors lack the discipline to succeed by David Wismer
- Can gold maintain momentum?
- Setting client expectations around active management (Carla Zevnik-Seufzer, The Strategic Financial Alliance)
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Osisko Development - Investor Presentation - June 24
Market Perspective - October 2016
1. Market Perspective – October 2016
Experience Insight Impact
biegelwaller.com
Overview: For decades, investors have made the behavioral mistake of piling into popular trades.
We would point to the tech bubble as the prime example, but on the other side of the equation,
fortunes have been made by remaining calm during periods of crisis. This month we explore the
concept of contrarian investing in the context of history, as well as in the current environment.
3. Tech Bubble Review
Experience Insight Impact
biegelwaller.com
• Beginning in 1999, internet stocks
began to advance. They did so at a
virtually unprecedented pace until
2001, despite many rational investors
understanding the over‐valuation was
extreme.
• While few were able to correctly time
the unwinding, ultimately valuation
prevailed and the internet bubble
burst with a dramatic selloff in Nasdaq
(shown in this chart). It took nearly 15
years to recapture highs.
• The bubble lasted longer and inflated
further than was rational. Taking
contrarian positions (in this case
shorting or avoiding the herd buyers
of internet stocks) was a successful
strategy as the index declined more
than 75% from peak to trough.
2
4. Current Concerns
Experience Insight Impact
biegelwaller.com
• Following a broad 7‐year bull
market, some valuations now
appear on the high side, driven by
the prospect of seemingly eternal
central bank assistance.
• While investors will undoubtedly
be unsuccessful timing a downturn,
future equity returns look
challenging given the current
opportunity set and the continued
slow global growth.
• When valuations look elevated,
time and time again markets tend
to eventually stumble. Evaluating
opportunities in the context of
risk/reward can provide for better
long‐term performance.
2
5. Potential Contrarian Opportunities
Experience Insight Impact
biegelwaller.com
5
• As noted in the previous slide, international
securities appear to offer a long‐term
opportunity on a valuation basis, with a
meaningful discount to domestic stocks.
International sentiment remains poor, and
broadly speaking, international remains the
topic of concern. The chart to the left shows the
long‐term underperformance of international
stocks, presenting possible opportunities going
forward.
• With the dramatic rise in the valuations of yield
type investments, underexposure to high
yielding securities (consumer staples, utilities
and REITs, etc.) may eventually prove wise. The
overvaluation and “chase for yield” has been a
dominant force and could eventually approach
“bubble” type levels, particularly when interest
rates increase.
6. Contrarian Framework
Experience Insight Impact
biegelwaller.com
5
This chart shows asset class
performance over time. Note
that while some asset classes
do tend to perform well for
multi‐year periods, the trend
often results in a “fall from
grace” in the years that follow.
On the other hand, picking
underperforming asset classes
typically rewards investor
patience over time. A well
diversified portfolio will, by its
nature, never be the best
performer. However, it will
tend to limit volatility and
prevent investors from chasing
performance, which is usually
associated with poor
outcomes. In effect, a well
diversified portfolio forces
some level of contrarian
investing, thereby rewarding
investors with better long‐
term, risk‐adjusted returns.
7. Conclusion: While valuation is a key measure of contrarian thinking, it is not a timing tool.
Thinking differently than the herd is typically a profitable investment strategy over time. Going
against the grain, buying when others are selling in fear, and selling when others are buying with
exuberance makes logical sense, and more importantly has rewarded investors in the long‐term.
It is also the more difficult path, given the behavioral aspects and emotional proclivities of most
investors. Ultimately, diversifying portfolios and thinking long‐term can help investors succeed in
achieving their financial goals and objectives. These are the driving principles that guide us on a
daily basis.
Experience Insight Impact
Market Perspective – October 2016
7
8. Experience Insight Impact
Disclaimer
8
Opinions expressed in this commentary may change as conditions warrant and is for informational
purposes only. Information contained herein is not intended to be personal investment advice for
any specific person for any particular purpose. We utilize information sources that we believe to
be reliable but cannot guarantee the accuracy of those sources. Past performance is no guarantee
of future performance; investing involves risk and may result in loss of capital. Consider seeking
advice from a professional before implementing any investing strategy.