Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
At an event at its central London Headquarters, chaired by The Times’ Economics Editor Philip Aldrick, Resolution Foundation Chief Economist Matthew Whittaker presented new analysis on the impact of monetary policy during the downturn. Former MPC member Kate Barker and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Martin Wolf then debated the future role of monetary policy, before taking part in a wider Q&A.
What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?InvestingTips
http://profitableinvestingtips.com/investing-tips/what-impact-would-tighter-monetary-policy-have-on-your-investments
What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?
A new president is about to take office. Successful investors will be the ones who anticipate how the next administration and congress will affect the economy and how the various factors at play will affect investments. In the case of Trump and a Republican controlled congress we expect tax cuts, an attempt to bring corporate cash back from overseas and increased spending on U.S. infrastructure. If these plans come to fruition there will be at least short and medium term stimulus to the economy. A predictable result will also be increased interest rates, namely a tighter monetary policy. The value of the dollar will rise versus other currencies. Our concern today is what impact would tighter monetary policy have on your investments? Bloomberg writes about the outlook on the Fed, Trump and the dollar.
PKO Bank Polski, which topped Bloomberg’s overall accuracy rankings for the final quarter of 2016, sees the dollar’s rise pushing the euro to 95 U.S. cents or even lower by the end of June, a level not seen in 15 years. That’s the lowest call for the pair among 53 forecasters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The forecast is based on the prospects of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, coupled with markets expecting President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal measures to “translate into higher growth and inflation,” said Jaroslaw Kosaty, the chief FX strategist at the bank, Poland’s biggest.
Will the impact of tighter monetary policy be solely because of a stronger dollar? How will inflation be affected if the Fed does not raise rates rapidly enough?
Global synchronization provide upward bias to Equity based investments once again. In depth look at how Janney breaks down the year ahead and where to invest to take advantage of the reemergence of Global Growth.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
At an event at its central London Headquarters, chaired by The Times’ Economics Editor Philip Aldrick, Resolution Foundation Chief Economist Matthew Whittaker presented new analysis on the impact of monetary policy during the downturn. Former MPC member Kate Barker and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Martin Wolf then debated the future role of monetary policy, before taking part in a wider Q&A.
What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?InvestingTips
http://profitableinvestingtips.com/investing-tips/what-impact-would-tighter-monetary-policy-have-on-your-investments
What Impact Would Tighter Monetary Policy Have on Your Investments?
A new president is about to take office. Successful investors will be the ones who anticipate how the next administration and congress will affect the economy and how the various factors at play will affect investments. In the case of Trump and a Republican controlled congress we expect tax cuts, an attempt to bring corporate cash back from overseas and increased spending on U.S. infrastructure. If these plans come to fruition there will be at least short and medium term stimulus to the economy. A predictable result will also be increased interest rates, namely a tighter monetary policy. The value of the dollar will rise versus other currencies. Our concern today is what impact would tighter monetary policy have on your investments? Bloomberg writes about the outlook on the Fed, Trump and the dollar.
PKO Bank Polski, which topped Bloomberg’s overall accuracy rankings for the final quarter of 2016, sees the dollar’s rise pushing the euro to 95 U.S. cents or even lower by the end of June, a level not seen in 15 years. That’s the lowest call for the pair among 53 forecasters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The forecast is based on the prospects of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, coupled with markets expecting President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal measures to “translate into higher growth and inflation,” said Jaroslaw Kosaty, the chief FX strategist at the bank, Poland’s biggest.
Will the impact of tighter monetary policy be solely because of a stronger dollar? How will inflation be affected if the Fed does not raise rates rapidly enough?
Global synchronization provide upward bias to Equity based investments once again. In depth look at how Janney breaks down the year ahead and where to invest to take advantage of the reemergence of Global Growth.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Cherry blossoms everywhere! A serene Japanese tea garden was the scene I created for a beautiful bride. This was a shower that I planned early in 2015.
This slide show gives an overview of the financial crisis in Greece, the problems of capital controls, and how to overcome these problems through Bitcoin & Spartan Route.
Project on Greece Crisis and Impact for Economic Environment of Business Renzil D'cruz
: Project on Greece Crisis and Impact for Economic Environment of Business
• financial crisis of 2007–2008
• Greek government-debt crisis
• Causes for deteriorated economic
• Tax evasion and corruption
• Unsustainable and accelerating debt-to-GDP ratios
• Impact of the Greece Economic Crisis on India
India’s Crisis Responses and Challenges
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
Market Outlooks
We leverage a global network of investment consultants and researchers to deliver industry specific knowledge and dynamic tools, which allows our clients to make informed strategic investment decisions.
1. Market Perspective – December 2016
Experience Insight Impact
biegelwaller.com
Overview: As 2016 draws to a close, we revisit the impact of low interest rates. 10-year U.S.
Treasuries have risen from a low yield this year of 1.36% to currently stand at almost 2.60%. The
impacts of such a move, much of it occurring since the election, have rattled fixed income
markets and currencies across the globe. Increasing rates are typically associated with improving
economic outlooks. This month we dive into the impact of low interest rates and why the
movement in rates is important for investors to monitor.
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2. Experience Insight Impact
Rising Interest Rates
When interest rates were
at record lows, global
economies increased their
debt levels to all-time
highs as ultra low interest
rates made servicing
record debts much easier.
Now that interest rates
have started to normalize,
the impact of rising rates
merits attention.
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Ten Year Treasury Yield
3. Experience Insight Impact
Higher Future Interest Expense
With the federal debt near record high levels, normalization of interest rates implies a substantial
increase on future interest expense, which in turn will exacerbate the federal deficit and the
national debt.
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Interest Expense
on Federal Debt
(Left)
Average Interest
Rate on Treasuries
4. Experience Insight Impact
Widening Yield Differentials Result In A Stronger U.S. Dollar
The divergence of Fed policy from other central banks whom are still loosening could also lead to a further
strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Rising U.S. yields result in widening yield differentials between Treasuries
and the sovereign debt of other countries. This could drive the dollar higher and may hurt U.S. corporate
profits and domestic equity markets. Almost 50% of S&P 500 revenues are generated from overseas sales.
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10-Year Government Bond Yield Differentials
U.S. – Japan
U.S. – Germany
U.S. – U.K.
U.S. – Italy
U.S. Elections
5. Experience Insight Impact
“Yield Proxy” Sector Equities Underperform
Equities of sectors that are “yield proxies” (i.e. dividend plays – Consumer Staples, Real
Estate, Utilities, Telecom) have underperformed the S&P 500 as bond yields (red line)
shot up following the U.S. elections.
5
S&P 500 Relative Sector Performance
(Normalized to 11/8/16 = 100)
10-Year Yield
S&P 500
Real Estate
Staples
Utilities
6. Experience Insight Impact
Mortgage Rates on the Rise
Mortgage rates declined to record lows prior to the election and shot up to over the 4% level with the decline in the
bond market. The housing recovery has been a big contributor to growth. A sudden rise in mortgage rates may
interfere to this recovery since consumer spending contributes over 70% of GDP.
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30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
(National Average)
7. Market Perspective – December 2016
Experience Insight Impact
biegelwaller.com
Conclusion: Following the elections, the U.S. is rapidly transitioning away from a period of
extremely low interest rates. While the domestic equity markets have responded with upside
movement, international markets have gone in the opposite direction with currencies being a
driving force. The speed of the upward interest rate move may create some disruption to parts
of the economy, but rates are also signaling potential economic improvement. The economy and
Fed policy are moving in the right direction and we are monitoring potential offsetting factors.
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8. Experience Insight Impact
Disclaimer
Opinions expressed in this commentary may change as conditions warrant and is for informational
purposes only. Information contained herein is not intended to be personal investment advice for
any specific person for any particular purpose. We utilize information sources that we believe to
be reliable but cannot guarantee the accuracy of those sources. Past performance is no guarantee
of future performance; investing involves risk and may result in loss of capital. Consider seeking
advice from a professional before implementing any investing strategy.
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