Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document outlines an agenda and class materials for a Civics class. First, students will read about the government's role in the US economy. Second, they will work on presentations for Shark Tank products. Third, they will watch entrepreneurial pitches and take notes. Fourth, students will present their Shark Tank pitches and have a test on the chapter later in January.
Fundamental analysis is the interpretation of statistical reports and economic indicators. Things like changes in interest rates, employment reports, and the latest inflation indicators all fall into the realm of fundamental analysis.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
The document discusses recent movement in fixed income markets, with interest rates declining dramatically over the past few months. This has significant impacts on both equity markets and the broader economy. The Federal Reserve reduced its expectations for 2019 GDP growth and inflation due to slowing economic indicators and lowered interest rates more rapidly than anticipated. Generally, declining borrowing costs allow economies to advance, so central banks are pushing rates downward globally.
The document discusses how the US federal budget deficit has grown large due to lower tax revenues and higher spending during the recession. It projects that the federal debt will exceed historical levels by 2023 and reach 190% of GDP by 2035 if changes are not made. It also summarizes factors like entitlement spending and healthcare costs that contribute to the growing deficit. The document argues that Democrats and Republicans need to agree on spending cuts and revenue increases to address the issue.
Td Economics Resale Housing Report October 2011Matt Collinge
Residential real estate activity saw a mixed month in September:
- Housing sales increased month-over-month but remain below January peak levels. Listings and inventory levels were also up slightly.
- The average national resale price decreased month-over-month but remains up 8.1% year-over-year, led by strong gains in British Columbia.
- Factors like new mortgage rules, economic uncertainty, and saturated first-time buyer segment have weighed on sales this year, though low mortgage rates have helped.
- The analyst expects a balance between economic headwinds and low rates to keep prices and sales steady in the coming year.
Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document outlines an agenda and class materials for a Civics class. First, students will read about the government's role in the US economy. Second, they will work on presentations for Shark Tank products. Third, they will watch entrepreneurial pitches and take notes. Fourth, students will present their Shark Tank pitches and have a test on the chapter later in January.
Fundamental analysis is the interpretation of statistical reports and economic indicators. Things like changes in interest rates, employment reports, and the latest inflation indicators all fall into the realm of fundamental analysis.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
The document discusses recent movement in fixed income markets, with interest rates declining dramatically over the past few months. This has significant impacts on both equity markets and the broader economy. The Federal Reserve reduced its expectations for 2019 GDP growth and inflation due to slowing economic indicators and lowered interest rates more rapidly than anticipated. Generally, declining borrowing costs allow economies to advance, so central banks are pushing rates downward globally.
The document discusses how the US federal budget deficit has grown large due to lower tax revenues and higher spending during the recession. It projects that the federal debt will exceed historical levels by 2023 and reach 190% of GDP by 2035 if changes are not made. It also summarizes factors like entitlement spending and healthcare costs that contribute to the growing deficit. The document argues that Democrats and Republicans need to agree on spending cuts and revenue increases to address the issue.
Td Economics Resale Housing Report October 2011Matt Collinge
Residential real estate activity saw a mixed month in September:
- Housing sales increased month-over-month but remain below January peak levels. Listings and inventory levels were also up slightly.
- The average national resale price decreased month-over-month but remains up 8.1% year-over-year, led by strong gains in British Columbia.
- Factors like new mortgage rules, economic uncertainty, and saturated first-time buyer segment have weighed on sales this year, though low mortgage rates have helped.
- The analyst expects a balance between economic headwinds and low rates to keep prices and sales steady in the coming year.
The document provides an economic update for May discussing key indicators of the US economy. It analyzes employment trends, GDP growth, and stock market performance. Recent job growth has been steady since 2009. GDP growth was slow from 2009-2016 but has increased since 2017. The stock market has risen significantly under Trump after also gaining ground under Obama. Overall, the economy is doing well currently but forecasts suggest slower growth in the next couple years, with risks including trade wars and global economic slowdown.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
It's been nearly six years since the official end of the Great Recession. Now, finally, Americans have reasons to feel upbeat about their financial prospects. Key economic indicators are signalling progress for the US economy
The document discusses Japan entering a recession with declining GDP growth and calls from opposition party leader Shinzo Abe for "unlimited monetary policy easing" and "endless money printing" if elected. It notes many companies have been hurt by Japan's strong currency, the yen, and that increased monetary policy would weaken the currency. It also discusses Japan's decades of deflation and calls to increase the Bank of Japan's inflation target. The challenges of generating economic growth solely through monetary policy are highlighted based on Japan's experience over past decades.
The document summarizes the mid-year 2011 economic outlook and investment environment. It notes that while some economic growth signals are positive, unemployment, housing, interest rates, and oil prices pose risks; and high government and overall debt levels threaten long-term growth. The investment outlook is mixed, with cautious optimism for stocks but concerns around valuations, technicals, and the sustainability of earnings growth.
- Upcoming inflation may benefit gold prices, especially if inflation persists longer than expected by central banks. Inflation expectations have risen significantly in recent months.
- The large US twin deficits could negatively impact the economy and support gold prices. The US current account and fiscal deficits have ballooned to record levels.
- While gold does not always rise when deficits increase, it has benefited in past periods when easy fiscal policy was accompanied by accommodative monetary policy, as is the case currently. The Fed intends to keep interest rates low to support economic recovery.
Worried about america you’d better watch chinagloriasimmon
The document discusses China's economy and the need for monetary stimulus. It notes that China's economic growth is slowing, with GDP declining for the past 6 quarters. Industrial production is also weaker than in past years. While inflation is low, economic growth forecasts are below past levels, indicating the need for monetary stimulus to boost domestic consumption. The health of the Chinese economy is important for the global economy given economic linkages between countries.
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee has embarked on another round of planned asset purchases. In its November 3 policy statement, the FOMC wrote that it expects to buy another $600 billion in long-term Treasuries by the end of 2Q11 ($75 billion per month), in addition to the $35 billion per month in reinvested principal payments from its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. There has been much criticism of the move in the financial press. Certainly, there are risks in the Fed’s strategy. However, it’s hardly reckless or ill-advised.
Daily Economic Update: October 29, 2010NAR Research
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Gains were seen in inventory investment, consumer spending, equipment investment, and government purchases, with the strongest growth in personal consumption expenditures. However, the economy remains below its historical 3% average growth rate and the unemployment rate is expected to remain high at around 10% as the recovery remains soft. Consumer sentiment fell recently but may improve in the next month's data as many consumers got their desired election results.
The document discusses various economic indicators that are used to analyze the health and performance of an economy. Some key indicators mentioned include:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures total economic output within a country.
- Employment and wage data like the unemployment rate, which can show how many people are working.
- Productivity measures how efficiently factories and businesses are operating.
- Price indices that track inflation rates and cost of living changes.
- Exchange rates, interest rates, and money supply statistics that influence trade and monetary policy decisions.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
The document discusses different options for dealing with the upcoming "fiscal cliff" in the US: A) getting pushed over the cliff through abrupt spending cuts and tax increases, B) jumping at the chance to strike a "Grand Bargain" through a large deficit reduction deal, or C) stepping back to think about the issues and consider alternative approaches. It argues that options A and B could harm the economy in the short-run and that there is no economic reason to rush into a large deficit reduction given that the US government has fiscal space as the issuer of the currency.
The document discusses how gold may perform in the new decade. It considers whether the 2020s could see a "Roaring Twenties 2.0" economic boom like in the 1920s, but finds this unlikely due to high public debt levels and concerns about inflation. While Biden's economic stimulus plans could initially weaken gold, overheating the economy and raising inflation long-term would support higher gold prices. The ongoing pandemic also implies that gold could benefit from continued easy fiscal and monetary policies needed to support economic recovery.
The document is a January 2014 newsletter from Prism Capital Management that provides investment updates on several topics:
1) It summarizes the history of interest rates in the US, noting they are currently near historic lows but expected to rise in the future.
2) It outlines the economic outlook for 2014, expecting continued slow GDP growth around 2% with little change in employment, inflation expected to increase slightly but remain low.
3) It summarizes new research from Morningstar that challenges common assumptions around retirement costs, finding actual costs are often lower than estimated based on factors like taxes, spending patterns, and life expectancies.
1) The global investment landscape may realign in 2016 as major central banks change course, with the US expected to raise rates, Japan potentially tapering QE, and China's reforms promoting growth.
2) China has successfully rebalanced its economy away from heavy industry and towards services, accounting for half of GDP, but headlines still focus on declines in manufacturing.
3) Infrastructure investment in China has stabilized and signs point to a potential cyclical upswing in housing, which could drive broader economic growth and commodity demand in the coming year.
Indonesia's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2008 in the first quarter of 2010, expanding 5.7% year-over-year driven by increased household spending, business investment, and exports. This exceeded economists' median growth forecast of 5.78% and reversed the previous quarter's contraction, showing Indonesia's economic recovery remains on track. Strong growth, stable inflation, and improved politics are expected to foster a better investment environment going forward.
The document provides an economic outlook report for September 2010 by Mike Lathigee, Chairman and CEO of Alliance Investment Solutions. The summary is:
1) The economy is experiencing extreme uncertainty and it is difficult to determine if it is improving or declining. Cash flow from conservative, low-risk investments is the focus.
2) Real estate appreciation is not expected in the near future. Cash flow from real estate is recommended over appreciation-based investments.
3) The stock market uncertainty is due to mixed economic indicators like high unemployment and weak corporate earnings. Government bonds have increased in demand despite low returns.
4) Emerging markets are seeing strong growth while most developed economies are growing slower than the US
This document summarizes John Williams' speech about the current economic conditions and outlook for monetary policy. Some key points:
1) The economy has strengthened, with GDP and job growth picking up. However, unemployment remains above typical estimates of its natural rate and inflation below the Fed's 2% target.
2) The Fed has begun tapering its asset purchase program but monetary policy remains highly accommodative. Interest rates will stay near zero until unemployment falls further.
3) The Fed has tools like interest on reserves and reverse repos to manage the large balance sheet and control interest rates during normalization of policy. Any rate increases will be gradual and clearly communicated.
The document discusses inflation and its potential impacts given policy changes under the new US administration. It notes that inflation has eroded purchasing power over the long-term and that equities have historically outperformed bonds and cash in inflationary environments. However, unexpected high inflation in the short-term could negatively impact the economy and markets. The conclusion is that the potential for higher inflation exists, which increases the difficulty of holding cash, so flexibility and risk management are important.
The document provides an overview of the global business environment in August 2015. It discusses the economies of key regions:
- The US economy saw growth in the first half of 2015 driven by consumer spending and low oil prices, though federal spending declined. Household debt levels remained stable while delinquencies decreased slightly.
- The EU recovery remains fragile despite measures like ECB bond purchases. Second quarter GDP growth of 0.3% missed targets as France stagnated and other major economies saw slower growth.
- Other topics covered include expectations for the timing of US interest rate rises, high stock valuations, trade balances of various countries, and the impact of sustained low oil prices on the global economy.
The document provides an economic update for May discussing key indicators of the US economy. It analyzes employment trends, GDP growth, and stock market performance. Recent job growth has been steady since 2009. GDP growth was slow from 2009-2016 but has increased since 2017. The stock market has risen significantly under Trump after also gaining ground under Obama. Overall, the economy is doing well currently but forecasts suggest slower growth in the next couple years, with risks including trade wars and global economic slowdown.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
It's been nearly six years since the official end of the Great Recession. Now, finally, Americans have reasons to feel upbeat about their financial prospects. Key economic indicators are signalling progress for the US economy
The document discusses Japan entering a recession with declining GDP growth and calls from opposition party leader Shinzo Abe for "unlimited monetary policy easing" and "endless money printing" if elected. It notes many companies have been hurt by Japan's strong currency, the yen, and that increased monetary policy would weaken the currency. It also discusses Japan's decades of deflation and calls to increase the Bank of Japan's inflation target. The challenges of generating economic growth solely through monetary policy are highlighted based on Japan's experience over past decades.
The document summarizes the mid-year 2011 economic outlook and investment environment. It notes that while some economic growth signals are positive, unemployment, housing, interest rates, and oil prices pose risks; and high government and overall debt levels threaten long-term growth. The investment outlook is mixed, with cautious optimism for stocks but concerns around valuations, technicals, and the sustainability of earnings growth.
- Upcoming inflation may benefit gold prices, especially if inflation persists longer than expected by central banks. Inflation expectations have risen significantly in recent months.
- The large US twin deficits could negatively impact the economy and support gold prices. The US current account and fiscal deficits have ballooned to record levels.
- While gold does not always rise when deficits increase, it has benefited in past periods when easy fiscal policy was accompanied by accommodative monetary policy, as is the case currently. The Fed intends to keep interest rates low to support economic recovery.
Worried about america you’d better watch chinagloriasimmon
The document discusses China's economy and the need for monetary stimulus. It notes that China's economic growth is slowing, with GDP declining for the past 6 quarters. Industrial production is also weaker than in past years. While inflation is low, economic growth forecasts are below past levels, indicating the need for monetary stimulus to boost domestic consumption. The health of the Chinese economy is important for the global economy given economic linkages between countries.
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee has embarked on another round of planned asset purchases. In its November 3 policy statement, the FOMC wrote that it expects to buy another $600 billion in long-term Treasuries by the end of 2Q11 ($75 billion per month), in addition to the $35 billion per month in reinvested principal payments from its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. There has been much criticism of the move in the financial press. Certainly, there are risks in the Fed’s strategy. However, it’s hardly reckless or ill-advised.
Daily Economic Update: October 29, 2010NAR Research
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Gains were seen in inventory investment, consumer spending, equipment investment, and government purchases, with the strongest growth in personal consumption expenditures. However, the economy remains below its historical 3% average growth rate and the unemployment rate is expected to remain high at around 10% as the recovery remains soft. Consumer sentiment fell recently but may improve in the next month's data as many consumers got their desired election results.
The document discusses various economic indicators that are used to analyze the health and performance of an economy. Some key indicators mentioned include:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures total economic output within a country.
- Employment and wage data like the unemployment rate, which can show how many people are working.
- Productivity measures how efficiently factories and businesses are operating.
- Price indices that track inflation rates and cost of living changes.
- Exchange rates, interest rates, and money supply statistics that influence trade and monetary policy decisions.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
The document discusses different options for dealing with the upcoming "fiscal cliff" in the US: A) getting pushed over the cliff through abrupt spending cuts and tax increases, B) jumping at the chance to strike a "Grand Bargain" through a large deficit reduction deal, or C) stepping back to think about the issues and consider alternative approaches. It argues that options A and B could harm the economy in the short-run and that there is no economic reason to rush into a large deficit reduction given that the US government has fiscal space as the issuer of the currency.
The document discusses how gold may perform in the new decade. It considers whether the 2020s could see a "Roaring Twenties 2.0" economic boom like in the 1920s, but finds this unlikely due to high public debt levels and concerns about inflation. While Biden's economic stimulus plans could initially weaken gold, overheating the economy and raising inflation long-term would support higher gold prices. The ongoing pandemic also implies that gold could benefit from continued easy fiscal and monetary policies needed to support economic recovery.
The document is a January 2014 newsletter from Prism Capital Management that provides investment updates on several topics:
1) It summarizes the history of interest rates in the US, noting they are currently near historic lows but expected to rise in the future.
2) It outlines the economic outlook for 2014, expecting continued slow GDP growth around 2% with little change in employment, inflation expected to increase slightly but remain low.
3) It summarizes new research from Morningstar that challenges common assumptions around retirement costs, finding actual costs are often lower than estimated based on factors like taxes, spending patterns, and life expectancies.
1) The global investment landscape may realign in 2016 as major central banks change course, with the US expected to raise rates, Japan potentially tapering QE, and China's reforms promoting growth.
2) China has successfully rebalanced its economy away from heavy industry and towards services, accounting for half of GDP, but headlines still focus on declines in manufacturing.
3) Infrastructure investment in China has stabilized and signs point to a potential cyclical upswing in housing, which could drive broader economic growth and commodity demand in the coming year.
Indonesia's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2008 in the first quarter of 2010, expanding 5.7% year-over-year driven by increased household spending, business investment, and exports. This exceeded economists' median growth forecast of 5.78% and reversed the previous quarter's contraction, showing Indonesia's economic recovery remains on track. Strong growth, stable inflation, and improved politics are expected to foster a better investment environment going forward.
The document provides an economic outlook report for September 2010 by Mike Lathigee, Chairman and CEO of Alliance Investment Solutions. The summary is:
1) The economy is experiencing extreme uncertainty and it is difficult to determine if it is improving or declining. Cash flow from conservative, low-risk investments is the focus.
2) Real estate appreciation is not expected in the near future. Cash flow from real estate is recommended over appreciation-based investments.
3) The stock market uncertainty is due to mixed economic indicators like high unemployment and weak corporate earnings. Government bonds have increased in demand despite low returns.
4) Emerging markets are seeing strong growth while most developed economies are growing slower than the US
This document summarizes John Williams' speech about the current economic conditions and outlook for monetary policy. Some key points:
1) The economy has strengthened, with GDP and job growth picking up. However, unemployment remains above typical estimates of its natural rate and inflation below the Fed's 2% target.
2) The Fed has begun tapering its asset purchase program but monetary policy remains highly accommodative. Interest rates will stay near zero until unemployment falls further.
3) The Fed has tools like interest on reserves and reverse repos to manage the large balance sheet and control interest rates during normalization of policy. Any rate increases will be gradual and clearly communicated.
The document discusses inflation and its potential impacts given policy changes under the new US administration. It notes that inflation has eroded purchasing power over the long-term and that equities have historically outperformed bonds and cash in inflationary environments. However, unexpected high inflation in the short-term could negatively impact the economy and markets. The conclusion is that the potential for higher inflation exists, which increases the difficulty of holding cash, so flexibility and risk management are important.
The document provides an overview of the global business environment in August 2015. It discusses the economies of key regions:
- The US economy saw growth in the first half of 2015 driven by consumer spending and low oil prices, though federal spending declined. Household debt levels remained stable while delinquencies decreased slightly.
- The EU recovery remains fragile despite measures like ECB bond purchases. Second quarter GDP growth of 0.3% missed targets as France stagnated and other major economies saw slower growth.
- Other topics covered include expectations for the timing of US interest rate rises, high stock valuations, trade balances of various countries, and the impact of sustained low oil prices on the global economy.
This document analyzes key economic indicators in the US for the first quarter of 2014. It discusses 10 important indicators: 1) GDP decreased 1% due to declines in corporate profits and income, likely due to harsh winter weather slowing business activity. 2) Housing market saw a small increase in existing home sales but declines in homeownership and increases in rental vacancies. 3) Unemployment has been decreasing but wages are also declining slightly. 4) Import and export prices rose slightly due to inflation. Raising the value of the dollar could boost trade and corporate profits. 5) Retail sales rose 4% showing consumer confidence. 6) Consumer credit is rising as interest rates remain low and confidence increases. 7) Keeping inflation low
The document discusses GDP growth rates in India and other countries. It provides context on how GDP is used to measure a country's economy. Specifically, it notes that India's GDP growth rate was 2.4% in 2020, while the US was -3.7% and Russia and China were also negative. It defines GDP as the total monetary value of goods and services produced within a country in one year. GDP gives policymakers information to analyze the economy and impact of policies, but it also has limitations in accuracy between countries.
4th Qtr Year End 2011 Economic Review Feb 15 [Autosaved] [Autosaved]Gary Crosbie
The document provides an economic summary and analysis for the 4th quarter of 2011. Key points include:
- Economic growth was sluggish in 2011, with GDP growth averaging 1.7% for the year, well below the 5-8% typically seen in recoveries. Unemployment improved slightly but remains high.
- This recovery has been the weakest since World War II. Job and GDP growth have been insufficient to significantly reduce unemployment.
- Business investment and hiring have been hampered by economic uncertainty, regulations, taxes. Corporations have large cash reserves but are using funds mostly for mergers and stock buybacks rather than hiring.
- The Federal Reserve has pursued monetary stimulus through policies
4th Qtr Year End 2011 Economic Review Feb 15 [Autosaved] [Autosaved]Gary Crosbie
The document provides an economic summary and analysis of the 2011 4th quarter. It finds that while some economic indicators showed improvement, overall growth remained sluggish. GDP growth increased in 2011 but was still lower than in 2009-2010. Job growth improved but remained insufficient to significantly lower the unemployment rate. The recovery has been much weaker than past post-WWII recessions. Uncertainty around fiscal policy, taxes, and regulations has hindered business investment and hiring. Overall the economic outlook remains tepid with growth expected around 2% for 2012 and unemployment remaining elevated.
4th Qtr Year End 2011 Economic Review Feb 15 [Autosaved] [Autosaved]Gary Crosbie
2011 4th Qtr Economic Review
Economic Summary
Fed Policy
Bus Investment
Other Economic Indicators
Employment Analytics
“Falling Knife -1- Employment vs Skils”
“Falling Knife -2- The Great In-equality of Wages”
Thought Experiment
Market Forecast
Picks
1Introduction My name is Yinan Hong. I am your port.docxaryan532920
1
Introduction
My name is Yinan Hong. I am your portfolio manager from Trailblazer
Investment Advisors. I am a CFA charter holder, equipped with sufficient financial
knowledge. I will help my customers manage their wealth and try my best to gain??
as much as possible. There are three objectives for my clients, Sam and Amy
Kratchman who have recently inherited … and have current savingswith
$1,100,000(on an after-tax basis) inheritance. The first one is having enough money
for their life after retirement at age 65. The second objective is raising college tuition
for their two children. The last one is to buy a beach house with newfound inheritance.
Ending summary
Economic Analysis
2014
GDP Growth
The economic recovery of United States in 2014 became a light brightspot in
global economy after the 2009 recession. The low price level do you mean low infl?
If so that isn’t really a great thing at the current time, decreasing unemployment rate,
better development of the what is the estate?estate and manufacturing industry made
the economy continuously recover although at a much lower rate than prev recoveries.
However, some important indexes like the investment of the real estate, income of
amy kratchman � 2016/10/16 12:32 PM
已设置格式: ⾏行行距: 1.5 倍⾏行行距
2
residents residents?, manufacturing have not reached to the same level as it performed
before the recession in 2014 – true – but RE was performing very well and is a strong
area of growth in 14. The percentage change in Real Gross Domestic Product in 2014
increased in the former three quarters and then decrease in the Q4.not true
In the first quarter, the change of GDP was 2.1% not correctnegative growth1.
The most important factor was the abominable weather. The personal consumption
expenditures for nondurable goods decreased because 1what is this? the inconvenient
of buying your table (footnoted) does not imply a decrease. The Gross private
domestic investment decreased 6.6% because of the huge lower equipment
investment1. The exports decreased extremely and the imports increased. They all led
to the negative growth.
Figure12 : CCI Index in 2014
The GDP growth reached to 4.0% in the second quarter. By analyzing the
components that affected overall GDP growth, personal consumption expenditures
1http://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=3&isuri=1&904=2013&903=1&9
06=q&905=2016&910=x&911=0
2 FactSet
3
and gross private domestic investment played an important role in this significant
growth. Consumption contributed 2.56% change in GDP. After the severe weather,
the private inventory investment, exports, fixed investment, and non-federal
government spending increased.this is a rebound in pretty much all areas However, 5%
more imports negatively impact GDP and offset those positive contributors.
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also ...
The document discusses gross domestic product (GDP) and how it is used to measure the overall health and output of an economy. GDP measures the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It provides a measure of both production, or output, as well as income. When GDP increases, both national output and income are higher. GDP data can also be used to compare living standards across countries and measure economic growth over time by adjusting for inflation.
This document discusses macroeconomic concepts including GDP, business cycles, economic growth, and technological progress. It explains that GDP measures the value of final goods and services produced, and economists use GDP and real GDP per capita to analyze economic performance and standards of living. The business cycle consists of expansion, peak, contraction and trough phases influenced by investment, interest rates, expectations and external shocks. Economic growth results from capital deepening, savings, population changes, government policies, and technological advances driven by factors like research, innovation, and education.
4th Qtr Year End 2011 Economic Review Feb 15 [Autosaved] [Autosaved]Gary Crosbie
- Economic growth in 2011 was sluggish at around 1.7% GDP, below the level needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate. While some improvements were seen, job growth and the labor participation rate remained problematic.
- The Federal Reserve implemented several quantitative easing programs aimed at stimulating growth by lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity, but these have had limited success in spurring lending and investment.
- Continued policy uncertainty around taxes, regulations, healthcare, and the European fiscal crisis have contributed to risk aversion among businesses and investors, limiting hiring and capital expenditures. The economic outlook for 2012 remains tepid.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
This document discusses several key economic indicators that affect commodity prices, including:
- Consumer confidence index, consumer price index, employment reports, GDP, and retail sales which measure economic activity and consumer spending.
- FOMC meetings and interest rate announcements which can impact inflation and currency valuations.
- Trade balance, current account, and durable goods orders which provide insights into international trade trends.
- Housing starts and industrial production which track business investment and manufacturing activity.
These economic indicators are closely watched globally as they can signal changes in commodity demand and supply.
The document summarizes recent news and developments in global markets and the Indian economy from October 31 - November 4, 2016. It discusses the impact of the FBI announcement regarding Hillary Clinton's emails on US and global markets. It also covers the upcoming US presidential election and its potential effects. Domestically, it discusses recent inflation data, bank earnings, and the progress of GST implementation in India. Globally, it mentions recent economic data and central bank decisions in the US, UK, Eurozone, and China.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered, unlike previous recessions where recovery took 2-3 years. Reasons for the slow recovery include financial crisis-related slowdowns, policy uncertainty, extended unemployment benefits, and euro crisis uncertainty. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually spark new hiring if companies begin spending on growth.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow compared to previous recessions. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered. Possible reasons for the slow recovery include financial crises typically resulting in slow recoveries, policy uncertainty in Washington, extended unemployment benefits, and eurozone crisis uncertainty dampening business demand. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually provide a boost to hiring and the broader economy if companies begin spending more on new hires.
There are three main types of economic indicators - leading, lagging, and coincident. Leading indicators predict future economic trends, lagging indicators reflect past trends, and coincident indicators describe the current economic situation. Some key economic indicators discussed include the consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rate, stock market, housing market, currency strength, and level of new business startups. Understanding a variety of economic indicators together can provide a more comprehensive view of the overall health of an economy.
economic indicators presentation power point.pptDilshadSFaisal
This document provides an overview of economic indicators and how they can be used. It defines leading, lagging, and coincident indicators and provides examples of each. Key indicators discussed include GDP, employment figures, inflation rates, and housing data. The document advises using economic indicators to interpret current investment possibilities and the overall health of economies. It also notes that indicators should be viewed in the context of expectations and are important to different types of investments.
This document provides information about measuring economic performance, including GDP, GDP per capita, inflation, unemployment, and business cycles. It discusses how economists calculate GDP using the expenditures approach and defines real GDP. It explains how the consumer price index is used to measure inflation and defines the labor force in determining the unemployment rate. The document also introduces aggregate supply and demand analysis and how it can explain economic fluctuations between expansion, peak, contraction, and trough.
The document provides an overview of recent US economic data and projections. It discusses improving indicators for GDP growth, unemployment claims, consumer spending and inflation expectations. Housing starts are gradually recovering but vehicle sales have far to go. The federal budget deficit was $1.3 trillion in 2010 and is projected to be $1.5 trillion in 2011, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to continue rising according to baseline forecasts.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
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Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
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2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
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2. Can We Trust the
GDP?
Why is the United States' GDP number an unreliable indicator of
the health of our economy?
According to financial expert Dawn Bennett, founder and CEO
of Bennett Group Financial Services, the country’s GDP
number—specifically its 2014 2rd Quarter number—offers a
highly misleading message about the state of the economy
thanks to political influence and the manipulation of data.
3. About the GDP
What does the GDP measure?
• The GDP is a reflection of all of the money involved in imports and
exports over the course of three months, as well as the nation’s total
production of products.
• The GDP is calculated on a quarterly basis by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA). The U.S. has published a quarterly GDP number since
World War II.
• While the GDP serves as a valuable measure of economic health for
informative purposes, it also helps investors make smart decisions. When
investors can make smart decisions, the economy can continue to do well.
4. What Makes the GDP
Misleading?
• The BEA announced that in the 2nd Quarter of 2014, the GDP jumped
an impressive 4.6 percent from the 1st Quarter.
• This figured as the most significant increase in the GDP between
quarters since the end of 2011. However, the nation’s slowing
economy did not provide any reasonable evidence to support this
high figure.
• Bennett believes the 1st Quarter’s disappointing 2.1 percent decrease
in GDP was likely enough to prompt the government to inflate the 2nd
Quarter’s number. Bennett states a more accurate GDP 2nd Quarter
number is likely a negative 1.7 percent.
5. • Corporate insiders like company CEOs are selling their stocks at an
extremely high rate. We wonder: Why would these insiders decide
to quickly dispose of their stocks if the market was strong, as the
GDP says it is?
• As heads of company, these leaders know more about their future
growth than the government or market speculators.
• Approximately 7,000 of these insiders bought their own stocks in
the past year, while over 23,000 sold their own stocks.
• At the same time, the repurchasing of corporate stocks are occurring
at the highest rate since the year 2000. In short, company insiders are
selling the company stocks they individually own, but buying lots of
company stocks owned by the company to increase stock prices.
Insider Trading
Behavior
6. A Change to GDP
Calculations
In 2014 the U.S. also changed the way in which its quarterly
GDP number was calculated, which has resulted in a distorted
view of the nation’s actual productivity.
Previously, GDP was calculated by combining private
consumption, government spending, gross investments, and the
difference between export and import values.
GDP= C+G+I+(X-M)
7. New Calculations
Now, the government calculates the GDP with the inclusion of:
• Research and Development
• Art
• Film Royalties
• Books
• Theatre
• Music
The new calculation also considers things like real estate commission
and transactions to be a part of investment, even though they don’t make
up actual production.
This results in a GDP that is 3 percent larger than it would be otherwise.
The U.S. is the only country in the world that currently includes these
categories into their GDP calculations.
8. The Takeaway?
It’s time for investors to look more closely at stock market behaviors
and turn to other measures of economic health.
As Bennett notes, we’re currently sitting atop a speculative market
that has been inflated by misleading GDP figures, the excessive
printing of money as part of quantitative easing, and the Federal
Reserve’s unsound policies of high-frequency trading on the market.
While the economy may appear to be in good health, these indicators
are misleading and should be a signal to investors to make more
conservative choices in the coming months.