The document provides an overview of the market perspective in September 2017. It notes that while the markets have exhibited little volatility since the 2016 election, corrections of over 5% are actually quite common within a given year. The document also discusses factors like leading economic indicators and the current economic expansion that suggest a recession may not be imminent. It concludes by stating that most economists believe economic conditions remain reasonable, though ongoing monitoring of differences between corrections and bear markets is warranted.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for June. This month we dive deeper into equity market year-to-date returns and discuss the narrow leadership that has re-emerged, primarily from several large technology companies.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for August. Due to the recent rebound in quarterly corporate earnings, this month we explore the importance of this fundamental underpinning to the equity markets.
Monthly Market Perspective - January 2017Mark Biegel
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for January. This month, with the transition in Washington upon us, we reflect on what impact prior presidential cycles had on markets, and assess how this one may turn out.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
www.mycwmusa.com
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
www.mycwmusa.com
Signs of an impending stock market crashSwapnilRege2
Stock Markets Greed Fear market Pyschology Sotck market Fluctuations Signs of Stock market reaching the top Initial signs of bear market beginning Market fluctuations
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Managed futures have significantly underperformed broad markets over the past few years. When an asset class disappoints, selling it is always tempting.
But they are still worthwhile.
If anything, this might be an appropriate time to direct more funds into them.
Managed futures give you exposure to future prices of commodities, equities and currencies with the benefit of professional management. This asset class has a low correlation to traditional stocks. So if there’s another stock market crash, manag
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Similar to Market Perspective - September 2017 (20)
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for February. This month, with the prospect for potential policy changes ahead, we take a deeper dive into the concept of inflation and what it means to investors.
Osisko Development - Investor Presentation - June 24
Market Perspective - September 2017
1. Market Perspective – September 2017
Experience Insight Impact
Overview: With the lack of volatility the markets have exhibited since the U.S. presidential
election, economists and market participants have ramped up the dialogue suggesting a sell-off
is “right around the corner.” The activity certainly has been unusual, with very little in the way of
downward moves. We would note that true “bear markets” are different than “corrections” with
the former typically a result of economic activity (a recession for example, which is not expected
in the near-term) and the latter to be expected in normal market cycles.
1
2. Stock Market Corrections Are Common, Though Temporary
Experience Insight Impact 2
We must make a distinction between the consistent occurrence of intra-year sell-offs and keeping a long-
term perspective. While large bear market associated sell-offs are usually accompanied by recessions, intra-
year corrections in excess of 5% have been very common. The red dots above are the returns of intra-year
lows, while the grey bars represent full-year returns. Since 1980, the markets dip virtually every year,
though quite often end the year in positive territory (during the timeframe above, over 75% of the time).
Source: JPMorgan, FactSet, Standard & Poor’s
3. Lack of Volatility in Markets
Experience Insight Impact 3
Source: Bloomberg, Kopernik Global Investors
2017 has been a year with surprisingly low volatility. There have been only six days in which the
market moved up or down more than 1%. The lowest figure in the previous 20 years was in 2006
with 29 days.
4. Bear Markets Always Follow Bull Markets (and Vice Versa)
Experience Insight Impact 4
Source: Barron’s, Bloomberg, Yardeni Research
Despite strong market performance, we must be mindful that no bull market lasts forever. We are
currently in one of the longest bull markets in recent stock market history. Bear markets that
follow are characterized by sharp declines and are often accompanied by recessions (which we do
not forecast at this time).
5. Possible Recession Triggers
Experience Insight Impact 5
Source: Barron’s
As “bear markets go hand in hand with economic slowdowns,” any convincing signs of economic
weakness may trigger a chain reaction sell-off in the markets. There could be a number of
catalysts, but some of the current issues of interest to economists are listed above.
6. Current Expansion – Long But Weak
Experience Insight Impact 6
Source: JPMorgan, BEA, NBER
For more than a century, expansions as long as the current one (almost 100 months) have been
rare. This invokes fear that the likelihood of a recession in the near future is high. However, the
strength of the current expansion is unusually weak. Such weakness may justify a lengthier
expansion than usual.
7. Leading Economic Indicators Still Have Room to Run
Experience Insight Impact 7
Source: Bloomberg, Wasatch Advisors
In the past, economic expansions typically continued several years after the Leading Economic
Indicators (“LEI’s”) passed the previous highs. The LEI’s passed their previous peak only a few
months ago.
8. Market Perspective – September 2017
Experience Insight Impact 8
Conclusion: Since the U.S. presidential election and the beginning of 2017, markets have been
grinding higher without much volatility, raising fear about a possible sell-off in the near future.
Currently, there are a number of issues that concern economists, however most believe economic
conditions are still reasonable. Our process remains flexible and opportunistic as we are mindful
of the differences between bear market sell-offs and “garden variety” corrections.
9. Disclaimer
Experience Insight Impact
Opinions expressed in this commentary may change as conditions warrant and is for informational
purposes only. Information contained herein is not intended to be personal investment advice for
any specific person for any particular purpose. We utilize information sources that we believe to
be reliable but cannot guarantee the accuracy of those sources. Past performance is no guarantee
of future performance; investing involves risk and may result in loss of capital. Consider seeking
advice from a professional before implementing any investing strategy.
9