1. The document discusses potential scenarios for the growth of industry in low Earth orbit by 2030. 2. Key factors that could enable growth include decreasing launch costs, increasing demand for small satellites and remote sensing data, and commercial companies demonstrating value from the International Space Station National Laboratory. 3. The baseline scenario envisions private space habitats, reusable launch vehicles, cheaper small satellite launchers, and emerging sectors like materials research, satellite servicing, and on-demand payload return.

1. Justin Kugler
Human Space Exploration Sciences
University of Houston

2. Past
Present
Images courtesy of NASA, Intuitive Machines, & Deep Space Industries

3. Access: Competition &
Innovation in Launch
Services
Technology: CubeSats
& Small Sats
Democratizing Space
Policy: The
International Space
Station is a US
National Laboratory

4. Client: CASIS, managing
NGO of the ISS National Lab
Key Question: What might
industry in Low Earth Orbit
look like in 2030?
Issues:
What will be the tipping point?
What sectors will lead the
industry?

5. New Industrial Uses of Space
The Growth of Low Earth
Orbit as an Economic
Development Zone
Plausible Scenarios for 2030
Key Factors
Defining the
Project Portfolio

7. Conditions
 SpaceX is leading the charge to lower the cost of launch by an
order of magnitude & introduce operational reusability
 Blue Origin, United Launch Alliance, and others are responding
to this disruption with innovations of their own
 Satellites are becoming increasingly affordable & “smallsats”
are becoming their own launch market
 NASA is shifting to services contracting & public-private
partnerships for regular operations, like cargo & crew transport
 The Space Station is open for non-NASA users through the ISS
National Laboratory
Stakeholders
 Agencies: NASA, ESA, JAXA, Roscosmos, UK Space, ISRO, CNSA
 Regulators: FAA
 Launch Providers: Arianespace, Energia, ULA, SpaceX, Blue
Origin, Orbital ATK
 Aerospace Companies: Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Sierra
Nevada, Aerojet Rocketdyne
 Customers: Telecom operators; energy, biotech, materials, &
infotech companies; terrestrial imagery users
 New Players: Planetary Resources, Shackleton Energy Company,
Deep Space Industries, Planet Labs, UrtheCast, Firefly, ACME
Advanced Materials, Intuitive Machines, Made In Space

8. • Key Assumption: Demand for access to space for small sats, CubeSats, and
Earth remote sensing will continue to increase flight rates
• Implications:
• The cost of access will be low enough for private orbital platforms to
emerge
• Individual customers will spend more on payloads & platforms than
launch
1. The cost of orbital launch is decreasing
• Key Assumptions:
• Life cycle cost is important enough to withstand individual failures
• Commercial customers are comfortable with recoverable abort or failure
• Implications:
• The cost of sustained activity will decrease over time & increase returns
• R&D activities in space are increasingly attractive because of reduced
opportunity cost
2. Economy & survivability are prioritized

9. • Key Assumptions:
• ISS National Lab users will demonstrate enough value to draw in
additional customers for commercial space ventures
• Privately-owned platforms will emerge to respond to demand
• Implications:
• Space will be seen as part of the toolkit for solving industry’s challenges
and creating new products
• Private investment in space will surpass government spending
3. Growth in space technologies catalyzing other industries
• Key Assumption: Opportunity costs (pollution, scarcity, & land use)
associated with fossil fuels, rare earth mining continue to rise
• Implications:
• Space property rights will need to be defined
• Space industrialization could emerge as a form of ecosystem protection
4. Space resources become competitive with terrestrial

10. • Key Assumptions:
• Existing sensor platforms are insufficient to meet total volume demand or
complex data fusion requirements
• Terrestrial and airborne solutions are insufficient to meet demand or
requirements
• Implications:
• Extreme customer customization will be possible with proliferation of
satellite miniaturization
• Space debris management & micro-satellite end-of-life concerns will drive
active control measures, not just passive self-regulation or simple
avoidance
5. Demand for remote sensing data increases dramatically

11. Our Baseline Future

12.  Bigelow Aerospace provides LEO habitats
for government & private customers
 SpaceX & Blue Origin operate reusable,
vertical launch & recovery vehicles from
their own spaceports
 Cheaper, disposable smallsat launchers
enable startups & non-profits to do space
projects entirely on their own
 NASA purchasing power remains flat
 Launch costs continue to drop
 Business activity in space increases
proportionately with access
 NASA does not directly replace the ISS,
but operates it until 2024
 Intuitive Machines & Shackleton compete
to provide first on-demand return service
Images courtesy of Blue Origin & Bigelow Aerospace

13. Microgravity
Industry
Exotic
Materials
Applied
Research
Space
Services
Orbital
Habitats
Satellite
Servicing
Automated
Platforms
On-
Demand
Payload
Return
Emerging
Sectors
Asteroid
Mining
Supply
Depots
Space
Solar
Power
Images courtesy of SEC & Boeing

14. Trend Breaks, Unfulfilled Plans,
Wildcards

15. Trend Break
Launch Costs Plateau
SpaceX competitors fail to
respond or mire industry in
WTO battles
Industrialization is limited to
governments & Fortune 500s
Unfulfilled Plans
Atomic Precision
Manufacturing Upends
Industry
Advances in molecular
research & tooling bring
Drexler’s vision to life
Planetary Resources cannot
find customers for rare earth
metals
Wildcard
Asteroid Strikes Spokane
in 2017!
An undetected bolide causes
250,000+ casualties in an
airburst
Focus shifts to planetary
protection
Blue Sky
Colonization Takes Off
Larry Page said he’d rather
leave his fortune to Elon
Musk than charity
Elite ultra-wealthy invest in
off-world colonies for their
legacy
• What will be the products that make space industrialization go
mainstream?
• Will APM, nanotechnology, or something else disrupt space
industrialization and negate its advantages?
Key Uncertainties

16. The nanotechnology revolution finally hit. What’s next?
The Baseline Future
• Current assumptions about the “limits to growth” held as true.
• Space industrialization is, thus, an attempt to access new sources of energy
& resources to solve problems.
The Alternative Future
• Atomic Precision Manufacturing allows matter to be manipulated as easily
as digital information.
• The world is still struggling to adapt to “radical abundance” and its
implications, both good and bad.
• Those with the resources choose to “opt out” and leave the planet.

17. Uplift to the Enclaves!
Create Content
Explore Our Universe
Live
Cryptocurrency-Friendly
Images courtesy of NASA

18. Implications & Possibilities

19.  NASA is already shifting to being a
customer of services in Low Earth Orbit,
not owner-operator
 Large companies are already using the
ISS National Lab as a proving ground for
new research
 Merck
 Novartis
 Procter & Gamble
 Cobra Puma Golf
 By 2030, exotic microgravity-enabled
materials, services to government
clients, and commercial R&D are likely to
be the focus of orbital industry
 Disruptions could come from trade
disputes, property rights disputes, &
terrestrial technological leapfrogs