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The Digital Paradox:
World Future 2015
July 26, 2015
San Francisco
Karl Albrecht	
  
Finding the Balance	
  
The “Oh-S***” Future
Whose “Future” Do You Believe?
The “Gee-Whiz” Future
What is the Fate of the Individual
In an All-Digital Society?
Is Privacy Dead?
(If so, does it matter?)
The Digital Mantra:
Disruption
1: Preposterous;
never gonna
happen
2: Not in
this century
3: Late this
century
(2075+)
4: Middle of
this century
(2050-2075)
5: Before
mid-century
(2050)
Where is Artificial Intelligence Going?
By What Year Will Artificially Intelligent Entities
(Robots) Displace Humans and Take Over
Control of at Least One Modern Society?
Poll:	
  
Is There
Anything
That Can’t
Be
Robotized?
“Software	
  is	
  eating	
  the	
  
world.”	
  
~ Marc Andreessen,
Founder, Netscape;
High-tech Venture Capitalist
	
  
“By	
  the	
  time	
  we	
  get	
  to	
  
the	
  2040s,	
  we'll	
  be	
  able	
  
to	
  multiply	
  human	
  
intelligence	
  a	
  
billionfold.	
  ”	
  
	
  
“Computers	
  are	
  going	
  to	
  
keep	
  getting	
  smaller	
  .	
  .	
  .	
  
Ultimately,	
  they	
  will	
  go	
  
inside	
  our	
  bodies	
  and	
  
brains	
  and	
  make	
  us	
  
healthier,	
  smarter.	
  ”	
  
~ Ray Kurzweil,
Inventor, Futurist
“The	
  development	
  of	
  artiEicial	
  intelligence	
  
could	
  spell	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  human	
  race.”	
  
~ Stephen Hawking,
Theoretical Physicist
Stephen	
  Hawking,	
  
Theore2cal	
  Physicist	
  
“With	
  artiEicial	
  
intelligence,	
  
we	
  are	
  summoning	
  the	
  
demon.”	
  
	
  
“AI	
  is	
  .	
  .	
  .	
  potentially	
  
more	
  dangerous	
  than	
  
nukes.”	
  
~ Elon Musk,
Founder, PayPal,
Tesla Motors,
SpaceX
“Within	
  a	
  few	
  decades,	
  AI	
  
will	
  be	
  strong	
  enough	
  to	
  
be	
  a	
  concern.”	
  
	
  
“I	
  agree	
  with	
  Elon	
  Musk	
  
and	
  some	
  others	
  on	
  this	
  
and	
  I	
  don't	
  understand	
  
why	
  some	
  people	
  are	
  not	
  
concerned.	
  ”	
  
~ Bill Gates,
Founder, Microsoft;
Philanthropist
	
  
“Computers	
  are	
  going	
  to	
  
take	
  over	
  from	
  humans.	
  
No	
  question.”	
  
“If	
  we	
  build	
  these	
  
devices	
  to	
  take	
  care	
  of	
  
everything	
  for	
  us,	
  
eventually	
  they'll	
  think	
  
faster	
  than	
  us	
  .	
  .	
  .	
  Will	
  
we	
  be	
  their	
  pets?”	
  
~ Steve Wozniak
Co-founder, Apple Computer
“.	
  .	
  .	
  ?”	
  
~ Steve Jobs
Co-founder, Apple Computer
The Turning Point?
“Civilization	
  is	
  more	
  
and	
  more	
  a	
  race	
  
between	
  education	
  
and	
  catastrophe.”	
  
~ H.G. Wells,
Novelist, Futurist
The “Chucky” Effect
Ascribing “agency,” sentience, or intent
to an inanimate object
“Technology is revolutionizing society.”
“Robots are putting people out of work.”
“Drones will change law enforcement forever.”
Robots Do Not Put People Out of Jobs.
Business Owners Do.
Three Scenarios for an All-Digital Future?
Robots Take Over
Cyborg Scenario
Humans Prevail
We’ll	
  get	
  the	
  future	
  we	
  deserve.	
  
Our	
  challenge	
  is	
  to	
  
deserve	
  the	
  future	
  we	
  want.	
  

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The Digital Paradox: Finding the Balance

  • 1. The Digital Paradox: World Future 2015 July 26, 2015 San Francisco Karl Albrecht   Finding the Balance  
  • 2. The “Oh-S***” Future Whose “Future” Do You Believe? The “Gee-Whiz” Future
  • 3. What is the Fate of the Individual In an All-Digital Society?
  • 4. Is Privacy Dead? (If so, does it matter?)
  • 6. 1: Preposterous; never gonna happen 2: Not in this century 3: Late this century (2075+) 4: Middle of this century (2050-2075) 5: Before mid-century (2050) Where is Artificial Intelligence Going? By What Year Will Artificially Intelligent Entities (Robots) Displace Humans and Take Over Control of at Least One Modern Society? Poll:  
  • 8. “Software  is  eating  the   world.”   ~ Marc Andreessen, Founder, Netscape; High-tech Venture Capitalist  
  • 9. “By  the  time  we  get  to   the  2040s,  we'll  be  able   to  multiply  human   intelligence  a   billionfold.  ”     “Computers  are  going  to   keep  getting  smaller  .  .  .   Ultimately,  they  will  go   inside  our  bodies  and   brains  and  make  us   healthier,  smarter.  ”   ~ Ray Kurzweil, Inventor, Futurist
  • 10. “The  development  of  artiEicial  intelligence   could  spell  the  end  of  the  human  race.”   ~ Stephen Hawking, Theoretical Physicist Stephen  Hawking,   Theore2cal  Physicist  
  • 11. “With  artiEicial   intelligence,   we  are  summoning  the   demon.”     “AI  is  .  .  .  potentially   more  dangerous  than   nukes.”   ~ Elon Musk, Founder, PayPal, Tesla Motors, SpaceX
  • 12. “Within  a  few  decades,  AI   will  be  strong  enough  to   be  a  concern.”     “I  agree  with  Elon  Musk   and  some  others  on  this   and  I  don't  understand   why  some  people  are  not   concerned.  ”   ~ Bill Gates, Founder, Microsoft; Philanthropist  
  • 13. “Computers  are  going  to   take  over  from  humans.   No  question.”   “If  we  build  these   devices  to  take  care  of   everything  for  us,   eventually  they'll  think   faster  than  us  .  .  .  Will   we  be  their  pets?”   ~ Steve Wozniak Co-founder, Apple Computer
  • 14. “.  .  .  ?”   ~ Steve Jobs Co-founder, Apple Computer
  • 15. The Turning Point? “Civilization  is  more   and  more  a  race   between  education   and  catastrophe.”   ~ H.G. Wells, Novelist, Futurist
  • 16. The “Chucky” Effect Ascribing “agency,” sentience, or intent to an inanimate object “Technology is revolutionizing society.” “Robots are putting people out of work.” “Drones will change law enforcement forever.”
  • 17. Robots Do Not Put People Out of Jobs. Business Owners Do.
  • 18. Three Scenarios for an All-Digital Future? Robots Take Over Cyborg Scenario Humans Prevail
  • 19. We’ll  get  the  future  we  deserve.   Our  challenge  is  to   deserve  the  future  we  want.