Introduction to Strategic Futurist Thinking
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This document provides an introduction to strategic futurist thinking and concepts. It discusses analyzing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats through SWOT/PEST analysis. It also covers ideology strategy, policy tactics, grand strategy, and the policy of limited aims. Additional concepts discussed include volitional futurism, imaginative alternative futures, integrative versus non-integrative thinking, and Le Chatelier's principle. The document examines the American response to 9/11 as a grand strategic failure and the self-inflicted damage from decisions after that event. It defines the enemy and grand strategic joints that could be targeted in the war on terror, such as weakening oil and empowering women. The last section discusses using
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This paper grapples with this question and concludes that war between the two can break out even tonight if certain conditions are met. However, for now, with China’s military not advanced enough, any war would have to be started by the US. And it so happens that the US actually has enough motives to engage China before it fully modernizes but cannot just do so from the blue. The US is thus trying to force China to give it the reason to justify a war to its increasingly war skeptical allies and domestic publics.
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US drone strikes are being used to manipulate the public and fleece US taxpayers rather than effectively target threats. Contractors produce propaganda posters of drone strike victims who have no connection to US deaths, which are then spread by media and analysts with ties to contractors. This allows the lucrative drone program to continue targeting unimportant individuals while the real threats operate freely and taxpayers' money is wasted. The drone war has failed to stabilize the region and instead created more chaos and enemies.
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This document lists major historical events and issues that presidential leadership may be shaped by or have to address, including foreign issues, domestic issues, demographics, social issues, economic factors like GDP and unemployment, wars, and other needs and wants. It suggests presidential periods can be categorized into preparation, achievement, and consolidation phases, and that a president's ability to enact change may be limited or empowered by their electoral mandate and how effectively they deal with emerging problems.
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Futures studies resources
This document provides a collection of useful links for futures studies resources organized into categories such as research tools, trends analysis, books, journals, professional websites, universities, and futurists. The links cover topics like futures methodology, scenario planning, drivers of change, implications wheels, trend analysis, horizon scanning, futures-related journals and publications, professional organizations, universities with futures programs, and individual futurists. The document is intended as a resource for those interested in futures research.
FUTUROLOGY AND THE RELEVANCE OF HISTORY: WHAT MIGHT WE LEARN FROM THE 60S AND...
FUTUROLOGY AND THE RELEVANCE OF HISTORY: WHAT MIGHT WE LEARN FROM THE 60S AND...Institute for Transport Studies (ITS)
The document discusses how examining histories of urban transport from the 1960s and 1970s can help inform narratives about the future of transport. It reviews 19 academic papers on urban transport histories from this era in Western democracies. Key themes identified include the contested nature of transport and transitions toward more emphasis on environmental and social sustainability. The document argues insights from this review could enhance transport futures thinking by drawing analogies to potential changes in a future period beyond neoliberalism. Looking at past contingency may help distinguish wide-scale changes that do or do not threaten democratic values and progress.Collective mind futurist perspective
This document discusses the concept of collective mind from a futurist perspective. It explores how cognition is not limited to individual minds but involves interactions between minds and the social construction of reality through language. It discusses concepts like distributed cognition, extended mind, and how networks can produce novel insights through self-organization. The document concludes that language, knowledge, action and reality are intertwined and that future study is connected to understanding complex adaptive systems and cognitive science to study how humans construct reality collectively through language.
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Turbocharge your online presence with SlideShare. We provide the best tips and tricks for succeeding on SlideShare. Get ideas for what to upload, tips for designing your deck and more.
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Introduction to Futures Studies: Methods and Techniques
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FUTUROLOGY AND THE RELEVANCE OF HISTORY: WHAT MIGHT WE LEARN FROM THE 60S AND...
FUTUROLOGY AND THE RELEVANCE OF HISTORY: WHAT MIGHT WE LEARN FROM THE 60S AND...
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The strategic narrative outlines five key shifts: from control to credible influence in an open system; from containment to sustainment and domestic focus; from deterrence and defense to civilian engagement and embracing competition; from zero-sum to positive-sum global politics; and from national security to national prosperity and security. It argues the US should invest in sustainable prosperity at home and tools of global engagement to strengthen its influence, compete fairly, and leverage interdependencies to achieve security and prosperity.
Security and terrorism
This document provides an overview of security issues, the changing nature of warfare, terrorism, and dealing with the terrorist threat. It discusses how warfare has shifted from "old wars" between states to "new wars" involving non-state actors. Terrorism is defined as using violence against civilians to effect political change. The growth of air travel, television, and the internet have aided the spread of international terrorism. Causes of terrorism include defending culture from Western influence, economic grievances, and religious motivations. Winning the war on terrorism requires winning the war of ideas through proportionate responses that maintain the moral high ground.
Scenarios, Black Swans, and Assumptions
Presentation in April 2015 to the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies about applying a futures perspective to anticipating the futures of conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Jackson & howe the graying of the great powers. demography and geopolitics ...
The developed world is facing an unprecedented demographic transformation driven by falling fertility rates and rising longevity. By 2050, over a quarter of populations in developed countries will be elderly, compared to just 3-4% throughout most of history. Working age populations will stagnate or decline, shrinking economies. Japan and some European countries could lose nearly half their total populations by 2100. This aging transformation will have significant strategic, economic, and social consequences for developed nations' ability to maintain security.
17 471 03_realist_model
This document discusses concepts related to analyzing national security policy, including policy arenas, the policy cycles model, agenda setting, problem framing, and implementation. It also describes the realist model of national security decision making, which views the state as the primary actor pursuing fixed interests through strategic analysis. The document then provides an overview of Clinton's national security policy objectives, interests, threats, strategies, and approaches to promoting prosperity and democracy internationally. It questions how Clinton's approaches may differ from other presidents and the extent to which the realist model can explain non-crisis national security policymaking.
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The Model I culture is all around us. It is important to consider .docx
The Model I culture is all around us. It is important to consider how these thought-behavior patterns operate within the American macro-culture and global society as well as in other microcultures. These cultures may also impact the culture of organizations. Examining evidence of these thought-behavior patterns throughout history also helps us to understand our world today.
Choose ONE of the videos listed below, located in the Films on Demand database. (If the video you selected is no longer available, please select another from this list.) Watch the video, and use it as a basis for your discussion board post. Include the following elements in your post:
v
List the title of the video and provide a brief synopsis of the video.
v
Analyze the Model I behaviors and outcomes demonstrated in this video, using the socio-cognitive systems learning model.
v
Discuss the clues you observed that may indicate the values and deep, underlying assumptions of the people involved.
As always, be sure that your discussion is respectful, as you seek to understand yourself and other people!
Make Your Selection from the Following Videos:
v
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Nsc 1v2
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Energy: The Grand Strategic Joint of the 21st Century
Reducing dependence on oil would impact positively on the economy,
the environment, and the security of the entire world, as well as reinforce
the moral robustness of the West by liberating it from dependence
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Theories of Imperialism Political Theories Examples M.docx
Theories of Imperialism
Political Theories
Examples: Morgenthau, Cohen
Imperialism is simply a manifestation of the balance of power and is the process by
which nations try to achieve a favorable change in the status quo. The purpose of
imperialism is to decrease the strategic and political vulnerability of a nation.
"...we are engaged in 'pegging out claims for the future'. We have to consider,
not what we want now, but what we shall want in the future. We have to
consider what countries must be developed either by ourselves or some other
nation and we have to remember that it is part of our responsibility and heritage
to take care that the world, as far as it can be moulded by us, shall receivethe
Anglo-Saxon and not another character. Remember that the task of the
statesman is not merely with the present, but with the future. We have to look
forward beyond the chatter of platforms, and the passions of party, to the future
of the race of which we are at present the trustees, and we should, in my
opinion, grossly fail in the task that has been laid upon us did we shrink from
responsibilities, and decline to take our share in a partition of the world which
we have not forced on, but which has been forced upon us." Earl of Rosebery,
Speech at the Royal Colonial Institute, 1 March 1893
Fashoda
Conservative Theories
Examples: Disraeli, Rhodes, Kipling
Imperialism is necessary to preserve the existing social order in the more developed
countries. It is necessary to secure trade, markets, to maintain employment and capital
exports, and to channel the energies and social conflicts of the metropolitan
populations into foreign countries. There is a very strong ideological and racial
assumption of Western superiority within this body of thought.
The Philippines
"I went down on my knees and prayed to Almighty God for light and guidance
... and one night late it came to me this way. We could not leave (the
Philippines) to themselves--they were unfit for self-government--and they
would soon have anarchy and misrule over there worse than Spain's was...
There was nothing left for us to do but take them all and educate the Filipinos,
and uplift and Christianize them." US President William McKinley, as quoted
in General James Rusling, “Interview with President William McKinley,” The
Christian Advocate 22 January 1903, 17. Reprinted in Daniel Schirmer and
Stephen Rosskamm Shalom, eds., The Philippines Reader (Boston: South End
Press, 1987), 22–23.
The Belgian Congo
Liberal Theories
Examples: Hobson, Angell
Imperialism is a policy choice, not an inevitable consequence of capitalism.
Increasing concentration of wealth within the richer countries leads to
underconsumption for the mass of people. Overseas expansion is a way to reduce
costs (and thereby increase or maintain profit levels) and to secure new consumption.
Overseas expansion is not inevitable, however. A state ca ...
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Bianki for Pirate Parties International
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21st Century Threat Appraisal Part2
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conspirancy theory
This document discusses several conspiracy theories related to events in history such as the assassination of a king in 1793. It also discusses central banking systems and the creation of the US Federal Reserve in the early 1900s. Finally, it covers the Bilderberg Group, an annual private conference attended by influential business and political leaders from North America and Western Europe since 1954.
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Backward Design and Effective Brainstorming for Volitional Futurist Thinking
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Future Problem Solving
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Would You Like to Play a Game?
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https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
This PowerPoint compilation offers a comprehensive overview of 20 leading innovation management frameworks and methodologies, selected for their broad applicability across various industries and organizational contexts. These frameworks are valuable resources for a wide range of users, including business professionals, educators, and consultants.
Each framework is presented with visually engaging diagrams and templates, ensuring the content is both informative and appealing. While this compilation is thorough, please note that the slides are intended as supplementary resources and may not be sufficient for standalone instructional purposes.
This compilation is ideal for anyone looking to enhance their understanding of innovation management and drive meaningful change within their organization. Whether you aim to improve product development processes, enhance customer experiences, or drive digital transformation, these frameworks offer valuable insights and tools to help you achieve your goals.
INCLUDED FRAMEWORKS/MODELS:
1. Stanford’s Design Thinking
2. IDEO’s Human-Centered Design
3. Strategyzer’s Business Model Innovation
4. Lean Startup Methodology
5. Agile Innovation Framework
6. Doblin’s Ten Types of Innovation
7. McKinsey’s Three Horizons of Growth
8. Customer Journey Map
9. Christensen’s Disruptive Innovation Theory
10. Blue Ocean Strategy
11. Strategyn’s Jobs-To-Be-Done (JTBD) Framework with Job Map
12. Design Sprint Framework
13. The Double Diamond
14. Lean Six Sigma DMAIC
15. TRIZ Problem-Solving Framework
16. Edward de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats
17. Stage-Gate Model
18. Toyota’s Six Steps of Kaizen
19. Microsoft’s Digital Transformation Framework
20. Design for Six Sigma (DFSS)
To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentationsCall8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing
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Introduction to Strategic Futurist Thinking
- 1. T S V I B I S K A N D M I C A E L A Z I V W F S C O N F E R E N C E S A N F R A N C I S C O , J U L Y 2 0 1 5 INTRODUCTION TO STRATEGIC FUTURIST THINKING
- 3. CONCEPTS TO LIVE BY - I •Ideology Strategy •Policy Tactics •Grand Strategy www.tsvibisk.com 3
- 4. CONCEPTS TO LIVE BY - II •Policy of Limited Aims •Grand Strategic Joint •Strategy of Indirect Approach •Looking Backward Technique www.tsvibisk.com 4
- 5. VOLITIONAL FUTURISM What future do we want? Imagineering alternative futures: the primary task of the futurist Imagination and logic: fundamental tools of creative futurism www.tsvibisk.com 5
- 7. NON-INTEGRATIVE THINKING Problem Problem Problem Problem Solution Solution Solution Solution www.tsvibisk.com 7
- 8. LE CHATELIER’S PRINCIPLE •Why Doomsday Scenarios are always wrong •Alternative imagineered futures actually change present reality www.tsvibisk.com 8
- 9. AMERICAN RESPONSE TO 9/11 Greatest Grand Strategic Failure in American History www.tsvibisk.com 9
- 10. SELF-INFLICTED DAMAGE 1. Damage to economy: • Short term- several trillion dollars of debt • Long term- U.S will have tens of billions of dollars a year for veterans expenses for the next 50 years. 2. Damage to world standing 3. Damage to moral self-confidence www.tsvibisk.com 10
- 11. ‘WAR ON TERROR’: A LUDICROUS CONCEPT •Terror is a tactic. •You cannot wage war on a tactic. •You can wage war on a policy or an ideology, but not on a tactic. www.tsvibisk.com 11
- 12. DEFINING THE ENEMY • Ideological fanatics do not have a virgin birth: they are cultivated and nourished primarily by petrodollars • Over $100 billion Saudi /Qatari money over the past 20-30 years • Iran's Nuclear Program www.tsvibisk.com 12
- 14. GRAND-STRATEGIC JOINTS Weakening Oil as a vital international commodity the first and most vital grand- strategic joint in the war on terror Empowering women - the greatest long term subversive threat to Islamist extremism. Gender Apartheid must be made a crime against humanity 5th Geneva Convention for Asymmetric Warfare must be convened www.tsvibisk.com 14
- 16. PROCEDURE 1. Using strategies of indirect approach 2. Identifying the Grand Strategic Joint 3. Applying multi-dimensional thinking 4. Using Grand Strategy to enhance ideological values and aims www.tsvibisk.com 16