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Main Headquarters: 120 Water Street, Suite 350, North Andover, MA 01845 With offices in: NY, ME, TX, CA, OR www.ers-inc.com
PRE-INSTALLATION EVALUATION OF
INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS
Jonathan B. Maxwell and Betsy Ricker, ERS
Carley Murray, NYSERDA*
*Any opinions expressed, explicitly or implicitly, are
those of the authors and do not necessarily represent
those of the New York State Energy Research and
Development Authority
IEPEC Chicago August 2013
Pre-Installation Evaluation of
Industrial Projects
Jonathan B. Maxwell and Betsy Ricker, ERS
Carley Murray, NYSERDA*
*Any opinions expressed, explicitly or implicitly, are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the New York State Energy Research
and Development Authority
OBJECTIVES
Primary
 Discuss methods, advantages, and
disadvantages of very early impact
evaluator involvement in a large industrial
process program
Also share
 Procedure
 Case studies of pre-retrofit activity
WHAT IS PRE-INSTALLATION IMPACT
EVALUATION?
 Core activity: Project engineering review before savings
claims are finalized
 Pre-installation savings calculation review
 Baseline characterization
 Pre-installation metering
 Also/possibly:
 Early free ridership assessment
 Early post-retrofit review & metering
 Training PA and their technical advisors
WHY DO IT?
 Benefits for evaluators
 Evaluator inspection in pre-retrofit state
 Input regarding administrator M&V plan
• Opportunity for independent direct M&V
 Baseline perspective at time of decision-
making
 Evaluator-administrator convergence/training
 Bottom Line:
 Increased engineering rigor
 less variability, greater confidence in results
WHY DO IT?
 Benefits for program administrators
 Evaluator-administrator convergence/training
 Adjustment to savings estimates prior to incentive
calculation
 Increased depth of engagement with facilitators
 Less disturbance to customers
 Bottom line:
 Better realization rates
 Fewer surprises
WHY NOT DO IT?
 Added cost for evaluators and administrators
 Planning
 $2k to $10k per project evaluator cost; less but some admin
• Modest ex post savings later
 Sunk evaluation costs on projects that don’t matriculate
 Monthly meetings
 Risks added calendar time to processing
 Short notice rush analysis required
 Baseline can require research. Admin waits?
 Added bureaucracy before closing the deal
HOW IT WORKS
ID candidate projects
Evaluator review
Evaluator & administrator meet on
analysis, baseline, and proposed pre-
installation metering.
Pre-install site
visit. Possible
metering
Existing
facility
New facility
Evaluation review
memo
Evaluator &
administrator
meet
Post-install site
visit
Tracking
HOW IT WORKS – SCREENING
 Establish screening criteria in advance
Example:
 All over 5 GWh/yr or 10,000 MMBtu/yr
 All over intermediate size range and process,
complex baseline, capacity expansion,
controls, etc
 Sample others in intermediate range
 Evaluator or administrator can ID projects
HOW IT WORKS - VARIATIONS
 Are early evaluator findings advisory or
definitive to program?
 Is free ridership assessed? Is result
shared? Is it considered when setting
incentives?
 Formality of communication
 Who does the M&V?
CASE STUDIES
 Paper includes four case studies
Good
 Working together on M&V approach
 Evaluator influencing administrator on
baseline characterization, and vice versa
Bad
 Lost sunk costs
 No consensus on baseline
 Timing challenges
SUMMARY PRE-INSTALLATION IMPACT
EVALUATION
 Advantages:
 Better evaluation engineering & statistical quality
 Better realization rates
 Fewer bad surprises at end of evaluation
 Costs:
 More labor
 Calendar concerns

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Evaluation of energy efficiency projects

  • 1. Main Headquarters: 120 Water Street, Suite 350, North Andover, MA 01845 With offices in: NY, ME, TX, CA, OR www.ers-inc.com PRE-INSTALLATION EVALUATION OF INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS Jonathan B. Maxwell and Betsy Ricker, ERS Carley Murray, NYSERDA* *Any opinions expressed, explicitly or implicitly, are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority
  • 2. IEPEC Chicago August 2013 Pre-Installation Evaluation of Industrial Projects Jonathan B. Maxwell and Betsy Ricker, ERS Carley Murray, NYSERDA* *Any opinions expressed, explicitly or implicitly, are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority
  • 3. OBJECTIVES Primary  Discuss methods, advantages, and disadvantages of very early impact evaluator involvement in a large industrial process program Also share  Procedure  Case studies of pre-retrofit activity
  • 4. WHAT IS PRE-INSTALLATION IMPACT EVALUATION?  Core activity: Project engineering review before savings claims are finalized  Pre-installation savings calculation review  Baseline characterization  Pre-installation metering  Also/possibly:  Early free ridership assessment  Early post-retrofit review & metering  Training PA and their technical advisors
  • 5. WHY DO IT?  Benefits for evaluators  Evaluator inspection in pre-retrofit state  Input regarding administrator M&V plan • Opportunity for independent direct M&V  Baseline perspective at time of decision- making  Evaluator-administrator convergence/training  Bottom Line:  Increased engineering rigor  less variability, greater confidence in results
  • 6. WHY DO IT?  Benefits for program administrators  Evaluator-administrator convergence/training  Adjustment to savings estimates prior to incentive calculation  Increased depth of engagement with facilitators  Less disturbance to customers  Bottom line:  Better realization rates  Fewer surprises
  • 7. WHY NOT DO IT?  Added cost for evaluators and administrators  Planning  $2k to $10k per project evaluator cost; less but some admin • Modest ex post savings later  Sunk evaluation costs on projects that don’t matriculate  Monthly meetings  Risks added calendar time to processing  Short notice rush analysis required  Baseline can require research. Admin waits?  Added bureaucracy before closing the deal
  • 8. HOW IT WORKS ID candidate projects Evaluator review Evaluator & administrator meet on analysis, baseline, and proposed pre- installation metering. Pre-install site visit. Possible metering Existing facility New facility Evaluation review memo Evaluator & administrator meet Post-install site visit Tracking
  • 9. HOW IT WORKS – SCREENING  Establish screening criteria in advance Example:  All over 5 GWh/yr or 10,000 MMBtu/yr  All over intermediate size range and process, complex baseline, capacity expansion, controls, etc  Sample others in intermediate range  Evaluator or administrator can ID projects
  • 10. HOW IT WORKS - VARIATIONS  Are early evaluator findings advisory or definitive to program?  Is free ridership assessed? Is result shared? Is it considered when setting incentives?  Formality of communication  Who does the M&V?
  • 11. CASE STUDIES  Paper includes four case studies Good  Working together on M&V approach  Evaluator influencing administrator on baseline characterization, and vice versa Bad  Lost sunk costs  No consensus on baseline  Timing challenges
  • 12. SUMMARY PRE-INSTALLATION IMPACT EVALUATION  Advantages:  Better evaluation engineering & statistical quality  Better realization rates  Fewer bad surprises at end of evaluation  Costs:  More labor  Calendar concerns

Editor's Notes

  1. Early timely free ridership assessment (not NYSERDA scope) “Greater confidence” in both engineering (believe in site analysis) and statistical (lower variability and better relative precision) contexts.
  2. “Better” means “bigger” for PAs, or at least “closer to 1.0.”
  3. $6k NYSERDA impact evaluator & 40-hr budget. Running high so far. Horror stories (ref CPUC Lockheed panel)
  4. For NYSERDA the administrator IDs. Know at least one other jurisdiction where the evaluator has the responsibility
  5. NYSERDA: Advisory, no, no, no, moderately formal, administrator for the most part CPUC: Definitive, yes, yes, no, formal, administrator for the most part OPA: Unknown, yes, yes, yes, unknown, evaluator
  6. Ex 1: Condensing economizer in ethanol plant. Lost 90% of savings due to noncompletion of boiler. Lost sunk cost & early ID on lost method—billing analysis no longer viable Ex 2: Chemical distillation. Admin convincing evaluators that added M&V was not worthwhile Ex 3: Beverage bottling: Evaluators not made aware of project until virtually the installation date (administrators had short notice as well) Ex 4: Data center: Baseline characterization