1. Why in the moment? Because that’s where business gets done

2. Error-free decisions

3. Elements of decision making Size of decision Type of decision Frequency of decision Prior experience of decision

4. Decision making environment Uncertainty Complexity Familiarity Time-constrained

5. Decision making involves heuristics ...

6. General - natural assessments Similarity Availability Affective reaction Fluency of perceptual experience Causal structure of context Abnormal/surprising nature of event

7. Specific - decision making errors Regression to the mean Loss aversion The planning fallacy Attribution error Priming Extremity shifts/Group Think

8. Decision making timeline

9. The solution In practice A=C and B=D That means that A=B=C=D The only difference between the options is language – that’s the power of framing Framing is a critical element of ALL decisions

10. Sources/Further reading Gut Feelings – Gerd Gigerenzer Predictably Irrational – Dan Ariely The Decisive Moment – Jonah Lehrer Heuristics and biases: the Psychology of Intuitive Judgment - Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin & Daniel Kahneman (Eds.)