1. The document discusses decision making and the factors that influence it. It distinguishes between underlying conditions, which are the actual pre-existing causes and effects, and perceived conditions, which are the states recognized as factors that need to be addressed in making a solution or decision. 2. Decision makers are held responsible for the consequences of their decisions, which leads them to calibrate decisions to make the consequences acceptable. However, there is not always more than one justifiable decision to make. 3. The level of certainty in a decision depends on whether the underlying conditions prevent effective perception from guiding solutions. Different decision makers have different knowledge and opportunities to make the same decision.

1. Decision Knowledge
Sensing and Responding on Demand

2. Solution Logic
A problem has a scope of impact
• A solution is appropriate to the scope
• A method produces a solution
• A decision selects a method
• An assessment generates a decision
• Evidence supports an assessment
• Observable effects constitute evidence
• Influences create effects
• Causes have influence

3. What do we KNOW
about conditions?
What causes have effects?
What effects are recognized?
How are effects recognized?
What constrains recognition?
Why does the constraint exist?
Decision makers are held responsible for the
consequences of their decisions.
That provokes calibrating decisions to make
consequences acceptable.
But it is not a given that there is ever more
than one decision to make that is justifiable.
The key issue in decision-making is how its
justification is accountable.
Different decision-makers, having differing
types and amounts of knowledge,
thereby have differing opportunity to make
the same given decision.

4. Under demand,
conditions drive
decisions
• Underlying (“natural”) conditions are the
effects and causes that were already active
before any responsive engagement or
interventions occur, regardless of any given
party’s perception.
• Separately, Perceived (“apparent”) conditions
are the states that are distinguished and
recognized, for whatever reasons, as being
factors that should be addressed or managed
to allow a solution to be used.
underlying perceived
events presence
behavior influence
persistence constraints

5. What do we DO about
conditions?
Do underlying conditions prevent perception
from guiding effective solutions (decisions)?
Are underlying conditions distinguishable from
perceived conditions?
Is perception of conditions improvable during
decision-making?
How do we progress from less certainty to more
certainty supporting the decisions?
Does the decision need to alter the underlying
conditions?
Decision makers are held responsible for the
consequences of their decisions.
That provokes calibrating decisions to make
consequences acceptable.
But it is not a given that there is ever more
than one decision to make that is justifiable.
The key issue in decision-making is how its
justification is accountable.
Different decision-makers, having differing
types and amounts of knowledge,
thereby have differing opportunity to make
the same given decision, whether a better one
or not..

6. Underlying versus Perceived Conditions (Generic)
Category Definition Underlying (actual)
aka natural
Perceived (apparent)
aka circumstantial
A priori level of
decision certainty
Unmitigated affect on
decision confidence
Mitigator to apply
Chaotic has no
recognizable
structure
Ephemeral Formless Very low High difficulty, and
decisions have only
temporary value, for
unknown timespan
Reflexes
Random Unregulated
Volatile Unconstrained
Confused has no
unambiguous
identity
Unpredictable Ill formed Medium low Significant difficulty,
and sorting through
confusion is resource-
intensive
Focus
Incoherent Irregular
Unsteady Poor
Complicated includes
arbitrarily
connected
elements
Inconsistent Ill formed Low Circumstantially risky,
according to outcomes
required and/or known
precedents
Models
Inefficient Idiosyncratic
Steady Loose
Complex depends on
multiple
elements
interacting
Consistent Formal Medium high Circumstantially easy
or difficult according to
readability
Analysis
Coherent Regular
Steady Sensitive
Simple depends on
single active
element
Stable Formal Very high High ease Practice
Predictable Standard
Constant Definitive
Actual: events behavior persistence
Apparent: presence influence constraints
© 2014, 2021 malcolm ryder / archestra research

8. Archestra notebooks compile and organize decades of in-the-field empirical findings. The notes offer explanations of why things
are included, excluded, or can happen in certain ways or to certain effects. The descriptions are determined mainly from the
perspective of strategy and architecture. They comment on, and navigate between, the motives and potentials that predetermine
the decisions and shapes of activity as discussed in the notes. As ongoing research, all notebooks are subject to change.
©2021 Malcolm Ryder / Archestra Research
©2021 Malcolm Ryder / Archestra Research
www.archestra.com
mryder@archestra.com