Presentation to University of Maine Cooperative Forest Research Institute, April 2018.

1. What’s at risk?
Implications of climate change in regional forests
Maria Janowiak mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us
Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
USDA Forest Service
Climate Change Response Framework
www.forestadaptation.org

2. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
Climate
Carbon
Regional multi-institutional partnership among:
We deliver new science, practical information,
resources, and technical assistance related to
forests and climate change.

3. Vulnerability Assessment
NEW REPORT!
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/55635
Additional resources:
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
 Synthesize existing assessments and scientific literature
 Incorporate new results from forest impact models
 Draw on local expertise of scientists and land managers
 Describe state-of-knowledge for anticipated changes
in climate and response of forest ecosystems

4. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS

5. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS
THE GOOD:
Longer growing
seasons.

6. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS
THE GOOD:
Longer growing
seasons.
THE BAD:
Shorter, warmer
winters.

7. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS
THE GOOD:
Longer growing
seasons.
THE BAD:
Shorter, warmer
winters.
THE UGLY:
More extreme
events.
NY DEC

8. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS

9. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS
Many northern/boreal species are
projected to decline in the region–
contract to more northerly and
higher-elevation locations
Many species common farther south
are expected to see increased and
new habitat within the region.

10. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS
Likely to decline
 Balsam fir
 Black, red, & white spruce
 Northern white-cedar
 Eastern hemlock
 Black ash
 Paper birch
 Quaking aspen
 Tamarack
Mixed model results
 American beech
 Sugar & red maple
 Yellow birch
 White pine
Potential “winners”
 American elm
 American basswood
 Black cherry
 Eastern hophornbeam
 Gray birch
 Northern red oak
 Serviceberry
 Silver maple
 Sweet birch
 White oak
New habitat (esp. south)
 Black hickory
 Chinkapin oak
 Common persimmon
 Hackberry
 Loblolly pine
 Osage-orange
 Shortleaf pine
 Southern red oak
 Sweetgum
 Virginia pine
www.forestadaptation/org/ne-species

11. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS
= species X
suitable habitat
50% Reduction in Habitat:
Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain

12. Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS

13. Climate change is a
“threat multiplier”
 Chronic stress
 Disturbances
 Insect pests
 Forest diseases
 Invasive species
Interactions make all
the difference.
Effects on Forests
SHIFTING SEASONS | SHIFTING SPECIES | SHIFTING STRESSORS
Drought
Injury
Pests and
Disease
Image: Bartlett Tree Experts

14. Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in
response to climate change.
It means taking action to prepare for potential
changes and risks, and responding to effects.
Responding to Change

15. If you want a single “answer” for how to
respond to climate change, it’s
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working
and what you’re trying to achieve.

16. www.forestadaptation.org/demos
250+ Projects
have used the
Adaptation Workbook
Adaptation Demonstrations
Real-world examples of climate-informed
forest management

17. Atlas Timberlands (VT)
www.forestadaptation.org/atlas
Sustainable forestry
Conservation

18. Current Management with
Adaptation Benefits
• Follow BMPs for water quality
• Increase coarse woody material
• Increase tree species diversity
• Increase forest structural
diversity
• Ensure adequate seedling
regeneration
• Control invasives
• Minimize roads & trails
Atlas Timberlands (VT)

19. Challenge: Shorter and more variable winters
Atlas Timberlands (VT)

20. • Road layout
• Pre-sale road work
• Temporary bridge installation
Adaptation Tactic: Summer harvest
Atlas Timberlands (VT)

21. Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Promote native species adapted to future conditions
Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary (MA/CT)

22. Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Increase stream connectivity
Reducing impacts from extreme events, low flows, etc.
Trout Unlimited & Partners (VT/MA)

23. Increase species diversity & forest structure
Promote future-adapted tree species by
planting (red & black spruce, white pine)
Current White Pine Abundance
The Nature Conservancy (ME)

24. Providence Water (RI)
Water quality
Water quantity
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Promote future-adapted tree species by planting southern species
(black oak, pin oak, persimmon, pitch pine, shortleaf pine)
Minimize impacts from herbivory

25. Same actions–
climate change
just makes
them that
much more
important
Small “tweaks” that
improve effectiveness
New & different
actions to consider,
even some that may
seem wild & crazy
*not actual data – individual results will vary
Responding to Climate Change

26. Summary
 Uncertainty is guaranteed, but we know
enough to begin taking action now.
 Healthy forests are necessary to sustaining
Maine’s forestry sector.
 A healthy forestry sector is necessary for
adapting forests to changing conditions.

27. Thank you!
Maria Janowiak
mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us