Presentation to University of Maine School of Forest Resources, April 2018. Forests are a defining landscape feature across New England and northern New York, covering more than 40 million acres from the coast of the Atlantic Ocean to the peaks of the Appalachian Mountains. The changing climate is altering the region’s forests, and the foresters and other natural resource professionals working to keep the region’s forest ecosystems healthy and productive are increasingly considering climate change in their work. This presentation will highlight a new climate change vulnerability assessment and describe how climate change is expected to affect the 40 million acres of forest found in the region.

1. Understanding Forest
Vulnerability to Climate Change
Maria Janowiak mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us
Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
USDA Forest Service
Climate Change Response Framework
www.forestadaptation.org

2. Northwoods Kitsch

3. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
Climate
Carbon
Regional multi-institutional partnership among:
We deliver new science, practical information,
resources, and technical assistance related to
forests and climate change.

4. Climate Change Information
Image: www.ucciaconf.org

5. Climate Change Information

6. Climate Change Information

7. • Series of reports for natural resource professionals
• Focus on tree species and forest ecosystems
• Examine a range of future climates
• Evaluate key ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change
• Does not make recommendations or assess vulnerability to
changes in mgmt., land use, policy
Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis
NEW REPORT!
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/55635
Additional resources:
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment

8. Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis
 Synthesize state/regional assessments and
scientific literature
• Identify areas of agreement regarding
ecosystems and species at greatest risk
• Describe state-of-knowledge for anticipated
changes in climate and response of forest
ecosystems
 Incorporate new results from forest impact
models: Climate Change Tree Atlas,
LINKAGES, LANDIS
 Draw on local expertise of scientists and
land managers
34 authors – General Technical Report – 234 pages

9. Assessment Process & Expert Panel
Forest
Vulnerability
& Confidence
Potential
Forest
Change
•Future climate
•Published research
•Model results
Local
Info
•Current forest
conditions
•Climate trends
Expert
Knowledge &
Experience
(via workshop)

10. Forest Communities (n=8)

11. Models and Emissions Scenarios
Future Changes in Climate
Image: http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au

12. Models and Emissions Scenarios
Future Changes in Climate
Least Projected Change Most Projected Change
PCM
Low emissions (B1)
GFDL
High emissions (A1FI)
Change in
Temperature (°F)

13. Future Changes in Climate
Anticipated Change in Climate Evidence Confidence
Warmer temperatures increasing another 3.5 to 8.5 °F  
Longer growing season increasing another 20+ days  
Shorter, warmer winters with less snow fall and snow cover  
Sea levels rising by another 7 to 23 inches  
Altered precipitation patterns with increased annual rainfall  
Intense precipitation events that are more frequent and severe  
Altered soil moisture potentially both wetter and drier  
Increased risk of drought stress during the growing season  
 = robust/high
 = medium

14. Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
 Evidence of phenological shifts
 Projected to increase 3-7+ more weeks
Longer period for plant growth
Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014
Longer Growing Season

15. Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
 Evidence of phenological shifts
 Projected to increase 3-7+ more weeks
Longer period for plant growth
Phenological changes/mismatches
 Early bud break and frost damage
from late spring freezing.
Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014
Longer Growing Season

16. Shorter Winter (Less Snow)
Projected decreases in snow
fall, cover, and depth
 30-70% decreases in snowfall
 Greatest loss in December/January
Notaro et al. 2014, Figure: Frumhoff et al. 2007
Area with some snow on ground
for 30 days per year
Red = historic
White = high emissions

17. Projected decreases in snow
fall, cover, and depth
 30-70% decreases in snowfall
 Greatest loss in December/January
Decreased snowpack
 Increased soil freeze-thaw cycles
can damage roots and alter soil
processes
Shorter Winter (Less Snow)

18. More rain
 Warmer temperatures
 Increased precipitation
 Extreme rain events
Earlier peak stream flows
 Flashiness and episodic
high flows may increase
Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006
Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain)

19. More rain
 Warmer temperatures
 Increased precipitation
 Extreme rain events
Earlier peak stream flows
 Flashiness and episodic
high flows may increase
Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006
Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain)

20. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier
conditions during the growing season.
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Increased Risk of Moisture Stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)

21. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier
conditions during the growing season.
Increased Risk of Moisture Stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Precipitation
Runoff
Earlier spring
runoff and
increased runoff
during extreme
rain events

22. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier
conditions during the growing season.
Increased Risk of Moisture Stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer
temperatures drive
water loss from
soils and plants

23. Changes in Forest Composition
Climate Change Tree
Atlas: suitable habitat
LINKAGES: species
establishment
LANDIS: productivity
and composition
PCM B1 GFDL A1FI

24. Changes in Forest Composition
Many northern/boreal species are
projected to decline in the region–
contract to more northerly and
higher-elevation locations
Many species common farther south
are expected to see increased and
new habitat within the region.

25. Likely to decline
 Balsam fir
 Black, red, & white spruce
 Northern white-cedar
 Eastern hemlock
 Black ash
 Paper birch
 Quaking aspen
 Tamarack
Mixed model results
 American beech
 Sugar & red maple
 Yellow birch
 White pine
Potential “winners”
 American elm
 American basswood
 Black cherry
 Eastern hophornbeam
 Gray birch
 Northern red oak
 Serviceberry
 Silver maple
 Sweet birch
 White oak
New habitat (esp. south)
 Black hickory
 Chinkapin oak
 Common persimmon
 Hackberry
 Loblolly pine
 Osage-orange
 Shortleaf pine
 Southern red oak
 Sweetgum
 Virginia pine
www.forestadaptation/org/ne-species
Changes in Forest Composition

26.  Many common tree species are
projected to have reduced
suitability in the future
 Changes will occur slowly—not
instant dieback
 Mature and established trees
should fare better
 Immense lags to occupy habitats
 Critical factors: competition,
management, & disturbance
Changes in Forest Composition
Risk may be greatest:
• Location is relatively
near the southern
extent of species range
• Trees are projected to
decline and located on
a marginal site
• Forest is composed of
few species, esp. those
projected to decline
• Something is “missing”
from the ecosystem
• Other factors cause
additional stress

27. Interactions: Wildfire
Wildfire may increase:
 Warmer/drier summers
 Increased stress or mortality
from less suitable conditions
 Shift toward fire-associated
species like oaks and pines
Wildfire may not change:
 Spring/early summer moisture
 Current regeneration of more
mesic species
 Spatial patterns of land use and
fragmentation
 Fire suppression
Clark et al. 2014, Guyette et al. 2014
Future climate conditions suggest increased risk of fire.

28. Extreme Events
Extreme events may become more frequent or severe
 Heavy precipitation
 Ice storms
 Heat waves/droughts
 Wind storms
 Hurricanes
 “Events” are not well
modeled
Photo: Joe Klementovich, HBRF

29. Interactions: Insects and Disease
Indirect: Stress from other
impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
 Pests migrating northward
 Decreased probability of cold
lethal temperatures
 Accelerated lifecycles
Ayres and Lombardero 2000,
Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009,
Weed et al. 2013, Sturrock et al. 2011
Increased damage from forest insects & diseases
Hemlock woolly adelgid incidence ~2015

30. Interactions: Invasive Plants
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts
can affect the potential for invasion or success
Direct:
 Expanded ranges under warmer conditions
 Increased competitiveness from ability of some
plants to take advantage of elevated CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Hellman et al. 2008;
Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New
England (www.eddmaps.org)
Increased habitat for many noxious plants

31. “Threat Multiplier”
Image: Bartlett Tree Experts
Drought
Injury
Interactions make all the difference.
 Chronic stress
 Disturbances
 Insect pests
 Forest diseases
 Invasive species
Pests and
Disease

32. Vulnerability: Forest Communities
Forest communities will be affected differently
Forest system Vulnerability Potential impacts Adaptive capacity
Low-elevation spruce-fir Moderate-High Neutral-Negative Moderate
Lowland mixed conifer Moderate-High Neutral-Negative Low-Moderate
Montane spruce-fir Moderate-High Neutral-Negative Moderate
Lowland/riparian hardwood Moderate Positive and Negative Moderate-High
Northern hardwood Low-Moderate Positive and Negative Moderate-High
Transition hardwood Low-Moderate Positive and Negative Moderate-High
Central hardwood-pine Low Neutral-Positive Moderate-High
Pitch pine-scrub oak Low Neutral-Positive Moderate

33. Regional to Site-Specific
Research and assessments describe broad
trends but local conditions and management
make the difference.

34. How Managers are Responding
 Adaptation Demonstrations provide real-world
examples of forest management activities that:
• Enhance the ability of forests to cope with changing
conditions
• Achieve land owner management goals
 Foster cross-ownership dialogue and learning
 Illustrate diverse goals and approaches

35. www.forestadaptation.org/demos
250+ Projects
have used the
Adaptation Workbook
Adaptation Demonstrations
Real-world examples of climate-informed
forest management

36. Atlas Timberlands (VT)
www.forestadaptation.org/atlas
Sustainable forestry
Conservation

37. Current Management with
Adaptation Benefits
• Follow BMPs for water quality
• Increase coarse woody material
• Increase tree species diversity
• Increase forest structural
diversity
• Ensure adequate seedling
regeneration
• Control invasives
• Minimize roads & trails
Atlas Timberlands (VT)

38. Challenge: Shorter and more variable winters
Atlas Timberlands (VT)

39. • Road layout
• Pre-sale road work
• Temporary bridge installation
Adaptation Tactic: Summer harvest
Atlas Timberlands (VT)

40. Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Promote native species adapted to future conditions
Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary (MA/CT)

41. Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Increase stream connectivity
Reducing impacts from extreme events, low flows, etc.
Trout Unlimited & Partners (VT/MA)

42. Increase species diversity & forest structure
Promote future-adapted tree species by
planting (red & black spruce, white pine)
Current White Pine Abundance
The Nature Conservancy (ME)

43. Providence Water (RI)
Water quality
Water quantity
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Promote future-adapted tree species by planting southern species
(black oak, pin oak, persimmon, pitch pine, shortleaf pine)
Minimize impacts from herbivory

44. If you want a single “answer” for how to
respond to climate change, it’s
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working
and what you’re trying to achieve.

45. Next time you’re in the woods
Take a look around & think about:
What’s important here?
How might it change?
What am I already doing to help?
What else can I do?
www.forestadaptation.org/NESAF2015

46. Maria Janowiak
mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us
906-482-6303 x1329
Photo by Todd Ontl, NIACS