Weather Outlook - Dr. Elwynn Taylor, Climatologist, Ag Meteorologist, Iowa State University, from the 2012 World Pork Expo, June 6-8, Des Moines, Iowa, USA.

1. Crop Weather Outlook 2012
What Follows A Strong La Niña?
Elwynn Taylor
www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor
1/12/2012 US Corn 147.2 BPA (9.24K/ha) soy 41.5BPA (2.79K/ha)

2. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/extremes/summer-2011-days-over-100.png

4. Madden-Julian
• Contributing to the weather today
• wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/

5. Daily T Deviation from Average
Dec 2010 to Aug 2011, Dec 2011 to now
17 Mar
• It was not hot all the time
• It was La Niña
• La Niña T is more extreme
• Last year (2011) we did not have+30

6. • Central Iowa corn yield trend (+2.05Bu/yr) exceeds the
National (+1.87Bu/yr), but lags the state (+2.10 Bu/yr).

7. WC IA
• West Central Iowa trend = 2.35Bu/yr.

8. 200
180
160
140
-- 18 yrs -- -- 16 yrs --
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

9. 7.00
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
$ per bushel
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
2
5
8
1
4
7
0
3
6
9
2
5
8
1
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
1
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Season-average Price Cost per Bushel
Chad E Heart
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

10. stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4

12. Reminder: All crop forecasts in this report are based on conditions
on August 1 and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The
next district corn and soybean production forecasts, based on
conditions as of September 1, will be released on September 12.
157.5
172
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Iowa/index.asp#.html

14. Record
year 2011
• Edging records of mid-teens &50s for old stations

15. Weather Stations Near You

16. • Sheldon: Hot July & normal rain to mid-July
• http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

17. Normal is 10.06 inch
Normal is 12.06inch
Normal is 14.55 inch
• Iowa: Precipitation between dates (2012 to date)
• http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

19. When I was a kid
1947 1983
Iowa State University Extension

21. COLD
WARM
Warm Winters Cold Winters

22. Sea Surface Anomaly 2012
• http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

23. • Past 3 La Niña peaked below 15
• Past 3 dropped to negative values
• World weather stayed La Niña this time

24. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current//soi-1977-1984.shtml

26. Some relief

27. •

28. Roots could be very important

29. I Remember Algona 2002
• Our creek is dry for the 1st time in 100+ years !
• Heat stress was normal after silking, Gdd got bhind, rain was ample in Aug

30. La Niña
• La Niña began June 2010
• La Niña peaked Nov 1, 2010
• 2nd strongest since 1950 by time & strength.
• Weakened (but did not establish neutral
condition) 14 June - 9 Sep 2011
• Strengthened to Moderate La Niña 1 Oct
2011
• Ended (likely) 22 Apr 2012…. Then ?

31. 11-month outlook based on
Risk Wheel Decision Tool
persistent climate anomalies
70% risk of below trend 53% risk of above 70% risk of above
• Chance of U.S. Corn yield <90% of trend yield
(Red), 90-100% (Blue), 100-110% (yellow), >110%
(Green) for (left to right) La Niña, neutral, El Niño
summers.
• Like analysis was done for ENSO+PDO+NAO combinations.
• Corn buyers/sellers can manage the risk of crop yield
exceeding or falling below government determined IS U
demand levels.

32. TWW Corn-Soy Outlook
• TWW (Taylor, Wisner, Wolter)
• Taylor likely crop yield per acre
• Wisner likely Dec price at harvest time
• Wolter likely El Niño/La Niña summer condition

33. La Niña Outlook 9 May 2012
• 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer
• 20% Chance El Niño begins immediately
• 50% Chance of Neutral ? ?
• Minimal chance of Neutral SOI
• 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60
• 20% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00
• 50% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15
• $ from Wisner 2/9/2012
• http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35
Based on the evolution of recent atmosphere-
ocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from
50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña
conditions into the upcoming summer. In
fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could
see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. …
(Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) 497-6340
Today DEC corn $5.18 Nov Soy $13.29

34. Preliminary 2012 Corn Risk
8 Mar 2012
130 180
22% 145
148 $6.60
177 29%
168 $5.00
161 164.2 $5.15
DEC12 518 ½ 10:30am 5/9/12
• ENSO odds: Wolter, Contract $: Wisner, Yield odds: Taylor
• Wolter: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
• Taylor: twitter.com/elwynntaylor
• Wisner:
www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf

35. Recovery of La Nina (termed a recovery as the historically mandatory 90-day period
of neutral [blue zone] was not achieved). This is the 90-day moving average plot that
serves as the forecast for the behavior of the “official” 152-day centered moving
average. The 152-day entered neutral on 13 June 2011 & recovered to La Nina 9 Sep
2011, as the neutral period was less than 90 days the standard for a neutral
condition was not achieved.

36. • An Important storm has helped but not corrected the dryness in S
Brazil & in Argentina (dry since Nov).

37. • http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/latest_cmoll.gif

38. Next 10 days: Warmish

40. SOI
The sea surface warming off Argentina has been significant over the past 20 days
Mar 19, 2012 0.82 (SOI tending, as of now, toward neutral )
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html