This document summarizes a presentation about analyzing the impacts of transit-oriented development (TOD) from a regional land use perspective. It compares a TOD-oriented land use scenario to other alternatives using metrics like land consumption, density, traffic impacts, and redevelopment. The analysis found that a TOD scenario could save agricultural and environmental lands while improving traffic flows and air quality compared to a trend-based scenario. It also discusses lessons learned, like how TOD works best when combined judiciously with highway development and supports infill and redevelopment.

1. The Impacts of TOD:
From Regional Land Use Perspective
Do Kim, Ph.D.
Department of Urban and Regional Planning
California State Polytechnic University - Pomona
Jack R. Widmeyer Transportation Research Conference 1

2. INTRODUCTION

3. Introduction
• This presentation focuses on how Transit Oriented
Development (TOD) impacts on future regional land
use and transportation conditions.
• By comparing with other land use alternatives, this
presentation provides quantitative evidences on how
much positive impacts TOD can bring.
• This presentation also points out a unique land use
scenario planning approach, which is a community
stakeholder driven process combined with a cutting-
edge GIS simulation technology.
3

4. Project Overview
• Land use scenario planning in conjunction with 2035
Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) of North
Florida Transportation Planning Organization
• Exploring alternative land use concepts and the
associated long term transportation impacts and
opportunities
• By Design, a TOD oriented land use
alternative is compared with other
land use concepts.

5. Base of Land Use Alternatives
• Developing future land use alternatives in the region
in order to accommodate projected population and
employment growth
2005 Increment 2005-2035 Annual Growth Rate
County
Population Employment Population Employment Population Employment
Clay 184,624 47,374 132,176 25,270 1.84% 1.44%
Nassau 67,681 20,213 38,819 10,782 1.52% 1.44%
St. Johns 157,981 65,666 168,382 35,027 2.45% 1.44%
Duval 855,572 509,112 362,428 271,564 1.18% 1.44%
Total 1,262,795 642,365 701,805 342,643 Avg .1.48% Avg. 1.44%

6. Four Scenarios
• Scenario A – Concentric Outer Growth
• Scenario B – North-South Centers Growth
• Scenario C – Satellite Centers Growth
• Scenario D – Transit Centers Growth

7. Scenario A – Concentric Outer Growth
• Outer growth into vacant
and undeveloped lands
outside the existing
urbanized areas
• Supporting expanded
highway network with
limited transit options

8. Scenario B – North South Centers Growth
• Growth in an outward
direction away from existing
urbanized areas and into the
region’s north and southeast
quadrants
• Supporting north-south
commuter rail transit and
continued highway
investment

9. Scenario C – Clustered Satellite Centers Growth
• Outer growth along key
transportation corridors and
strong redevelopment
strategy in old urban areas
• Supporting moderate levels
of transits and continued
highway investment

10. Scenario D – Transit Centers Growth
• Redevelopment
concentrating in major
urban areas and
development along future
commuter rail and other
transit
• Supporting most robust
transit network for the
region

11. SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS

12. Place Type Oriented Modeling
• Community elements - pedestrian shed
• ¼ mile diameter area (40 acres)
• Combination of different development types (building
types) in the shed

13. Creation of Community Element
Land use detail
Dwelling Units/Acre 5
Non-Residential FAR 0.72
Non-Developable Developable
1/4 mi Park 2% SF House 3%
Retention 2% Apartment 12 %
Road 15 % Mixed Use 6%
Civic 15 % Retail 12 %
Parking 5% Office 28 %
Total 39 % Total 61 %
GRAND TOTAL 100 %

14. Community Element for the Project

15. Scenario Development Workshop
Chip set play

16. Scenarios by Participants

17. From Chips to Data
• Converting allocated chips by the public to GIS data
by CorPlan
• Land use / transportation planners interpreted chips
and perform minor modification in order to make
the allocations fit in areas

18. Building Type Modeling
Any types of buildings can be modeled, even
parcel without a building like park or parking lot

19. Creation of Community Elements

20. Allocation of Community Elements

21. Allocation Results Review
• Summary Interface
• Providing socio-economic data based on allocation
• Keeping tracking allocation in overall or in particular
areas

22. Selection of an Alternative

23. SCENARIO COMPARISON

24. Overview
Performance Measure Criteria
% of new jobs by County
% of new jobs located within 1/2 mile of proposed premium transit corridor
% of new jobs located within 1/2 mile of fixed route bus corridor
% of new jobs located within 1 mile of proposed premium transit corridor
% of new jobs located within 1 mile of fixed route bus corridor
% of new Jobs Located within 2miles from the Beltline
% of new Jobs Located within Downtown Jacksonville
% of new jobs located within walkable communities
% of agricultural land in total developed area
% of existing agricultural land remaining "Un-Urbanized"
% of new population located within 1/2 mile of premium transit corridor
% of new population located within 1/2 mile of regular transit corridor
% of new population located within 1 mile of premium transit corridor
% of new population located within 1 mile of regular transit corridor
% of new Population Located within 2 mile from Beltline
% of New Population Located within Downtown Jacksonville
% of new population accommodated by townhouse or multifamily housing
% of wetlands in total developed area
% of wetlands consumed
Total acreage of urbanized lands
Total acreage of existing agricultural lands converted to urbanized lands
Total acreage of wetlands converted to urbanized lands
Persons per acre of developed lands (efficiency of urbanized land)
% of new households accommodated by redevelopment
% of jobs accommodated by redevelopment

25. Lands for Development
More Transit Components

26. Development Along Transit Corridor
Within ½ mile of proposed premium transit corridor
More Transit Components

27. CBD Infill and Redevelopment
More Transit Components

28. Density & Mixed Uses

29. COMPARISON WITH TREND

30. Trend
• Forecasting future land use
patterns based on the
future land use and
development plans (DRIs)
approved of submitted

31. Trend VS. Scenario D
Land Consumption
and Redevelopment

32. Trend VS. Scenario D
Density and mixed uses

33. Trend VS. Scenario D
Transit

34. Trend VS. Scenario D
-7% Traffic
-15%
None
u
7%

35. Trend VS. Scenario D
Traffic and air quality
-22%
-6%
-10%

36. SUMMARY

37. Lessons Learned
• Transit Oriented Development can save significant
amount of agricultural and environmental lands and
also improve traffic flows and air quality.
• When TODs are combined with highway
development, careful consideration is required in
terms of locations and spacing of TODs.
• In the case that there is strong infill and
redevelopment trends in a region, TODs can be an
excellent development option connecting
redevelopment hubs and supporting balanced
development
37