This document discusses strategies for implementing the vision of the Grand Boulevard Initiative (GBI), which aims to encourage transit-oriented development along a 43-mile corridor from Daly City to San Jose. It outlines several "game changers", such as improved transit, employment growth trends favoring transit-oriented locations, changing demographics, and increasing gas prices, that will support the GBI vision. It also discusses challenges to implementation like physical constraints, market challenges, and regulatory barriers. The document emphasizes that each community will need its own tailored approach using various combinations of grants, assessment districts, tax increment financing, bonds, developer fees, public-private partnerships, and user fees to fund different infrastructure projects.

1. HOW DO WE “WALK
WALK
THE WALK:” MAKING
THE GBI VISION A
REALITY
Dena Belzer
March 5, 2012

2. What We ll Talk About
We’ll
1.
1 Implications of the GBI Vision for the
Communities
2. Game Changers
3. How Do We Implement the GBI Vision?

3. Implications of the GBI for the Communities
Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

4. Grand Boulevard Initiative
 43-mile State Road 82
 Daly City to San Jose
 Parallel transit lines
 “Coalition of the willing”
 19 cities in 2 counties
 Federal, state and local
governments
 Transportation agencies
 Business and
development community
 Environmental and
housing advocates

5. Summary of Growth Scenarios: Projected
New Households and Jobs in 2035
300,000
240,264 246,231
250,000
190,395
200,000
200 000
138,543
150,000
107,135
107 135
98,849
100,000 89,270
57,355
45,071 39,147
50,000
‐
Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced
Households Jobs
These projections are pegged to outdated regional growth forecasts

6. All Five Scenarios Can Be Accommodated
Within the Existing Character of El Camino
 Land capacity > amount of land required for infill
 Can be achieved with financially feasible
p
products at a range of densities
g
20-25 DU/AC – 2+ stories, 25-35 DU/AC – 3-4 stories, 70-85 DU/AC – 6-8 stories,
attached townhomes, stacked attached flats over structured
underground parking townhomes, tuck-under parking/ground floor retail
parking

7. Fiscal Benefits of Infill Development ~ $330
million to $752 million in local tax revenues
$800
ons
Millio
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced
Property Tax - Housing Property Tax - Commercial Sales Tax from New Household Spending

8. Conversion of Low-Performing Retail Sites to Higher
Intensity Uses Can Provide Increased Revenues

9. SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT
Sunnyvale Example
Photo Credit: Google

10. Game Changers
Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

11. Game Changer #1: Vastly
Improved Transit on El Camino

12. Rapid Bus has Been Transformational in
Other Bay Area Corridors – San Pablo Ave
Ave.

13. Game Changer # 2: Bay Area Employment
Growth Trends Support Transit Oriented Locations
Source: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy

14. National Profile of Employment
Near Transit
Transit Zone Capture Rate by Sector Group, 2008
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: LEHD 2008, Center for Transit Oriented Development 2010
, p

15. From 2002-2008 Employment Near Transit
Increased Slightly in Absolute Numbers
Change in Total Transit Zone Employment by Sector Group, 2002-2008
15%
10%
5%
0%
‐5%
‐10%
‐15%
Source: LEHD 2008, Center for Transit Oriented Development 2010
2008

16. Game Changer # 3: Changing Demographics Will
Provide Greater Demand For Transit Oriented
Locations
Source: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy

17. Millenials Are Just Not Driving
As Much

18. Boomers Are Starting to Drive
Less Too
Everybody’s driving less, but Teens are no longer leading the way on driving
Source: Transportation Research Board

19. Game Changer #4: Increasing
Gas Prices

20. Increasing Gas Prices Directly
Correlate to Transit Ridership
The bigger the “Dot” the greater the increase in rail
ridership correlated to increased gas prices
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2011/12/how-americans-really-react-to-high-gas-prices/616/

21. How Do We Implement the GBI
Vision?
Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

22. Many Challenges to
Implementing the GBI Vision
Physical
Ph i l Market
M k t Regulatory
challenges challenges
• Small sites • Higher cost of infill • Height/density
• Fragmented • Big box often limits
opportunities highest and best • Slow, complicated
• Visually use
use” approvals process
unappealing • Weak short-term • High fees
environment demand • Ground floor retail/
• Tight credit mixed use
requirements
i t
• Suburban parking
standards

23. Every Community Will Create it’s
Own Approach
 There is no “one-size-fits-all solution ”
one size fits all solution.
 Think strategically about prioritizing public
investments and public funds
funds.
 Look for:
 Multiple funding sources
sources.
 A broad funding base.
 Synergies among projects
projects.
 New partnerships to fill the gap.

24. Every Local Plan Will Require Different
Combinations of Funding and Financing
Developer
Assessment Tax Bond Fees/ Joint
Project Grants Districts Increment Financing Exactions Development User Fees
Transit Stations and Station Area Improvements
West Dublin BART
X X X X
(Dublin,
(Dublin CA)
New York Ave Station
X X
(Washington D.C.)
Transit Lines and Corridor Infrastructure
Atlanta Beltline
X X X
(Atlanta, GA)
DART Corridor
X
(Dallas,
(Dallas TX)
District/Downtown Infrastructure and Improvements
White Flint
(Montgomery County, X X X
MD)
Downtown Stamford
X X
(Stamford, CT)

25. What’s on the Cutting Edge of TOD
Infrastructure Financing?
 Aurora CO
 Cleveland OH
 West Union IA
If these places can be “cutting edge” so can you!

26. Aurora CO - “Strategic Parking Plan
and Program Study”
Study
 Projects – Four structured parking
j p g
garages at strategic locations
 Tools -
 Potential funding sources: Aurora
general fund revenues, user
fees, parking in-lieu fee,
commercial parking stall fee
fee,
transportation impact fee
 Bond financing
 Lessons Learned -
 Think strategically about
prioritizing public investments
 Look for multiple funding
sources and a broad base
Source: Denver RTD FasTracks

27. Cleveland, OH - Greater University
Circle Initiative
 Projects - Reconfiguration of a traffic circle and
j g
relocation/renovation of two rail stations to support
development
 Tools - Anchor institutions provided:
 Convening and visioning
 $1 million for upfront
$ p
planning and design
 Support for federal grants
 L
Lessons L
Learned:
d
 Look for partnerships to
fill gaps left by traditional
funding sources
Source : New York Times

28. West Union IA – District Energy
System
 Project – District energy in an historic downtown
j gy
 Tools –
 Funding: Grants from the
U.S. Dept of Energy, the
EPA, & the Iowa
Department of Economic
p
Development
 Financing: Municipal bonds
 L
Lessons L
Learned –
d
 Look for synergies
among infrastructure
projects
 Layer funding sources

29. Wrapping UP
Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

30. Converging Factors Will All
Support GBI
1.
1 Changing community attitudes
2. Incremental physical change
3.
3 Better fiscal health
4. Strategic public investments
5.
5 Future population and employment growth
F t l ti d l t th
trends
6. Global trends
6 Gl b l t d
7. Innovative community and regional thinking
about i l
b t implementation!
t ti !

32. For Further Information
Contact:
dbelzer@strategiceconomics.com
dbelzer@strategiceconomics com
www.strategiceconomics.com
t t i i