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regional scenario planning | Alex Joyce
This document discusses the results and benefits of regional scenario planning. It provides examples of scenario planning processes in the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Portland, Oregon metro area. Scenario planning can influence spending on transportation and development policies, lead to economic development opportunities, and influence regional leaders. The examples show how scenario planning led to increased transit ridership, preserved farmland, reduced vehicle travel, and supported biking and compact development. Factors like mixed uses, density, and amenities were important to making growth concepts successful.
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regional scenario planning | Alex Joyce
- 1. REGIONAL SCENARIO PLANNING: PROVEN RESULTS AlexJoyce // Fregonese Associates
- 2. The future willnot be like the past, nor the present
- 3. The future willnot be like the past, nor the present
- 4. The future willnot be like the past, nor the present
- 5. The future willnot be like the past, nor the present
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- 9. Single Person Households Leading the Way 85% growth in households without children
- 10. Changing Consumer Preferences Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, University of Utah
- 17. SCENARIOS preparing ourregions for resilience in the face of uncertainty
- 19. Greenfield on theBeltway
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- 21. New Urbanist SmallTowns
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- 24. Can Scenario Planning ReallyMake Change? Influence spending RTP: regional transit and transportation project priority Influence local development regs Market-based zoning, form- based code Lead to direct economic development Oregon metal works – only streetcar manufacturer in country Influence regional & local leaders Build long term champions who ensure implementation
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- 26. The Wasatch Front The region was facing Enormous future growth Inadequate transportation - Doubling of VMT Poor air quality increasing asthma and
- 27. Worst Things AboutUtah Percent Who Mention First or Second Most Important Trasportation 20 Infrastructure 13 Criminal Activity 12 Air Quality 11 Income Level 10 Political Ideology 7 LDS Church 7 Cost of Living 6 Population Growth 6 Taxes 5 0 10 20 30 40
- 28. Scenario A Trends Continue Urban area doubles Density drops 84% single family Fewer people with access to transit Highest new infrastructure
- 29. Scenario C Market Demand Urban area increases by 25% Housing balanced with future market demand Significantly more people within walking distance to transit
- 30. Scenario D Aggressive Infill Urban area increases by 15% Most ag land preservation 60% of new growth accommodated through infill Portland Metro – 35% Most people within walking distance to transit Significant transit investment 2nd lowest infrastructure costs
- 31. Envision Utah: The region is blazing a new path – a well connected region Salt Lake City is investing more, per capita, in new public transit than any other metro area in the country Currently focused on
- 32. Transit Ridership Investing in a Full Range of transit options Heavy rail, Light Rail, Streetcar, BRT, Express bus, Local Bus Transit ridership up 21% in 3rd quarter of 2012 Rail up 10.7%
- 33. Bicycling Culture Taking Hold Comprehensive bicycle plan and investment commitment followed Regional Vision Up 27% between 2010-2011 NYC only up 14% in same time
- 34. Small-Scale Implementation Scenarios: Regional rail and BRT are coming How to leverage investment in transit and urban amenities to catalyze private investment
- 35. Small-Scale Implementation Scenarios: Regional rail and BRT are coming How to leverage investment in transit and urban amenities to catalyze private investment
- 36. Scenario C: Live| Play| •Residential throughout • Neighborhood: housing, services, grocery, school • Playgrounds and playfields • Office/retail/ residential mix on major streets • Family friendly in an
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- 38. Depot District Transit Trips Improve air quality, less time in traffic, more time doing what we enjoy
- 39. Prototypes Vary inFeasibility Main Street Retail 6+ Story TownhomesCompact 3- and 4- Single Family story mixed-use Most Feasible Most
- 40. Optimize Development Use ROI analysis to make regulations market feasible Experiment with: Height Parking requirements / type Unit sizes Landscaping requirements Etc.
- 41. Suburban Parking vs.Urban Parking Standards Suburban Parking Standards (2/uni Urban Parking Standards (1/unit) 3-story Garden Townhom works at Apts and es and urban Cottage Compact parking Homes Single standards Family
- 42. Scenario A: Work |Live | Play
- 43. Scenario A: Work |Live | Play
- 44. Scenario A: Work |Live | Play
- 45. Scenario B: Play| Live| Work
- 46. Scenario B: Play| Live| Work
- 47. Scenario B: Play| Live| Work
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- 53. Trends Continue –Significant Outward Expansion / Farm Loss
- 54. Concept A –Growth at Urban Edge
- 55. Concept B –All in on Infill
- 56. Concept C –New Compact Communities
- 57. The 2040 GrowthConcept The 2040 Growth Concept results in: Less Congestion Less Transportation investment More walk, bike, and transit trips What Makes 2040 Work Mixed use design Density in proximity to commerce and transit Mixed age and income neighborhoods
- 58. The 2040 GrowthConcept Regional Centers Town Centers Station Communities Main Streets Boulevards Transit Corridors Neighborhood Industrial Sanctuaries Open Spaces
- 59. 15 Years Later: 2040Growth Concept is Still the Regional
- 60. Redevelopment is amajor way to Currently 35% - Far exceeding goal of 20% 100% 29% 38% 75% 50% 25% 0% Households Employment New Construction Redevelopment 3-D Column 3 3-D Column 4
- 61. Portland VMT Achieving Kyoto Protocol Greenhouse Gas Reduction targets
- 62. Biking: Up over400% since
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- 65. Relationship of Amenityand Hedonic pricing study A complete amenity package Increases desirability Broadens housing demand Increases achievable rents & sales prices Results in expanded
- 66. Imagining highly amenitized Parksand Open Space Transit Commercial Amenities Traffic Calming Walkability Bicycle Connectivity
- 67. Competitiveness of Place: 80% MHI Young Family (25-35) $43,679 Project assistant and retail assistant TOD Housing $1,092 month/rent (63% likelihood) Segment $142,000 purchase (37% likelihood) Demand TOD Capture TOD Capture Other Preference Other Preference
- 68. Development Feasibility Spectrum Changes withIncrease in Desirability What Can Be Built? Today’s Rents 10% Increase in 20% Increase in & Sales Prices Average Rent Average Rent
- 69. Three Scenarios Examine “Bang for Public Investment Buck” 100% amenity level 90% amenity level 80% amenity level
- 70. St. Johns ResidentialMarket
- 71. Prototypical developments inSt. 3-story townhomes (one block off 3-story condos (near Willamette River) Lombard)
- 72. Downtown St Johns:Existing
- 73. Downtown St Johns:100% Amenitized
- 76. THANK YOU Alex Joyce// alex@frego.com
Editor's Notes
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- #3 The future will not be like the past, or even the present\nThere is a lot we know:\nBaby boomers, immigrants and young professionals are changing urban markets\nThere is also a lot of uncertainty to prepare for:\nClimate change, economic and political uncertainty\n
- #4 The future will not be like the past, or even the present\nThere is a lot we know:\nBaby boomers, immigrants and young professionals are changing urban markets\nThere is also a lot of uncertainty to prepare for:\nClimate change, economic and political uncertainty\n
- #5 The future will not be like the past, or even the present\nThere is a lot we know:\nBaby boomers, immigrants and young professionals are changing urban markets\nThere is also a lot of uncertainty to prepare for:\nClimate change, economic and political uncertainty\n
- #6 Older baby boomers (55-64) will constitute a senior population unprecedented in size;\nYounger boomers (46-54) many of whom won’t be able to sell their current suburban homes to move to new jobs;\nGeneration Y (late teens-early 30s), which may be renting housing far longer than did past generations; and\nImmigrants and their children, who may want to move to suburbs but may be priced out even after the current drop in prices.\n
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- #8 The shift we are experiencing is driven by several factors, including smaller household sizes – basically, a decease in family size. \n
- #9 So we can see this in greater detail here – this is data from the real estate research firm RCLCO – and it show the change in households between 1980 and 2000 and we see the greatest increase in the number of one person households, which grew by 85%. This is followed by households occupied by people that are married without children and then single women with children. The classic household – people married with children – grew the least. \n
- #10 What we are looking at here is the difference between existing stock and projected demand for three housing types: (1) Attached; aparments, lofts, condominiums, etc; (2) small lot single family; and (3) large lot single family. \n
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- #12 Hottest March on record for most of the country\n
- #13 Global climate change\n
- #14 US housing crash – financial crisis – no more free money\n
- #15 European debt crisis – global economic uncertainty\n
- #16 Arab Spring – political stability – fuel supply and dependency\n
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- #34 Been through the same process of choosing in Provo, working toward a long-term vision\nWhat’s feasible in the shorter term?\n
- #35 Been through the same process of choosing in Provo, working toward a long-term vision\nWhat’s feasible in the shorter term?\n
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- #37 That means an increase in transit trips – about 5-6ooo tran\nImprove air quality,\nSpend less time in traffic\nMore time for doing what matters to us\n
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- #41 We’ve explored what these modeled scenarios might look like on the ground.\n\nThe station, looking north, imagining significant job growth in the area…\n
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- #44 Standing on the steps of the historic Rio Grande Depot looking toward the new station, imagining a festival street…\n
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- #47 Just west of the Gateway, imagine new urban neighborhoods, think family friendly in an urban way\n
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- #65 -Not all amenities are created equal – bring a suburban area up to fully amentized… add nuance.\n
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