This document discusses scenario planning and its applications for neighborhood development. Scenario planning involves defining a neighborhood's values and existing conditions, setting goals, and designing multiple scenarios to evaluate different development options. The scenarios consider land use, transportation, urban design, infrastructure, and other built environment components. Tools are used to model and compare the scenarios. Scenario planning is useful for land use and transportation planning, transit-oriented development, brownfield redevelopment, and sustainability planning. The document provides examples of scenario planning applications and outlines the general steps and components involved.

1. Scenario Planning Where It Gets Real:
Neighborhoods
Eliot Allen LEED AP-ND, CNU-A
Criterion Planners
Portland, Oregon
eliot@crit.com
April 16, 2012

2. INDEX Scenario Planning Applications

3. What is Where What are Where Are we How
important are we our do we want taking the
. are we
to us? now? options? to go? right steps? doing?

4. Birmingham U.S. 11 Neighborhoods

5. Neighborhood Defined
• Perry 1927: quarter-mile radius/125 ac
• LEED-ND up to 320 acres
• Half-mile radius = 500 acres
• Social/economic boundaries
Neighborhood Processes Using Scenarios
• Land-use/transportation plan updates
• Transit station area development
• Brownfield redevelopment
• EIR/EIS alternatives
• Eco-districts
• Regional centers/corridors implementation
• California: SB 375 Sustainable Communities

6. Simplified Scenario Planning Steps
Existing Indicator
Values Indicator
Conditions Goal Setting Rating &
Survey Selection
SWOT Weighting
and driving informs user-defined
forces success
Build- Create Design/ Evaluate Impleme
Out Scenario Assemble & Iterate nt&
or other • buildings 3 to 4 -
reference • land-use incremental
case • urban design consistency
• circulation - update
• infrastructure benchmarks

7. Scenario Planning Distilled

8. Designing a Cool Spot in Tampa
Tampa Heights
Central Plaza
Scenarios
1
8
DU/ac
2
6
DU/ac
42
Emp/ac 3
5
Emp/ac
Multi-family
Mixed retail/office/res
Mixed retail/res
Parking garage
3
5
DU/ac
4
9
DU/ac
26
Emp/ac 4
0
Emp/ac

9. CO2 lbs/capita/yr
1 2 3 4
Scenarios
Cool Spot Footprints

10. Scenario Land Geographies & Data
House
-
hold Neighborhoo
Floor Building
d
Job boundary • Municipality
•
Parcel Census
Unincorporated
units
• County
• Subregion
Job Land TAZ • Region

11. Scenario
Transportation
Geographies
Neighborhood-scale
prerequisite:
walk, bike, transit, auto
networks

12. Built Environment Components (abbreviated list)
• Site/building features, land-use types, place types.
• Multi-modal circulation networks: walk, bike, transit, auto; and parking.
• User-defined metrics for evaluating scenario performance & ranking
scenarios by goal achievement.
• Existing conditions SWOT analysis: Strengths, Weaknesses,
Opportunities, Threats – informs goal setting & scenario assembly.
• ‘Susceptibility to change’ screening: spatial focus.
• Real estate development feasibility; infrastructure assessment;
sustainability evaluation.

13. Scenario Planning Tools
Land-use Transportation
INDEX Travel demand/traffic impact models
CommunityViz F&P Quick Response Tools
ET LEED-ND Connections Tool
SmartPlan MIT Urban Network Toolbox
SIMM OpenTripPlanner
RapidFire/Uftprint Real estate development
LUCIS Argus Developer
What If UrbanSim
Landscape/ecology Pencil Out
I-Tree Procedural 3D visualization
Vista UrbanVision (w/ dynamic transp)
CityGreen CityEngine

14. Users
Define
Success

15. Existing
Conditions
SWOT’ed
With
User
Values

16. Weymouth, MA Naval Base Reuse Plan

17. SpatialIndicator Mapping
Diagnostics:
Housing Proximity to Housing Proximity to
Amenity (grocery) Transit Stops

18. Optimizing Development Feasibility
Paul Waddell
UrbanSim

19. Focusing on Susceptibility to Change
Atlanta Midtown Alliance

20. Sustainability Scenarios at a Neighborhood-Scale
• EarthCraft Communities
• Enterprise Green Communities
• Envision Infrastructure
Neighborhood/ • Great Neighborhoods
community rating • GreenLITES
systems: • GreenTRIP
- Expert vetted. • LEED for Neighborhood Development
- Menus of measures. • SITES
- Assemble local packages/
• STAR Community Index
scenarios.
- Iterate/evaluate.
- Calif: SB 375 SCS.

21. LEED-ND Scenarios:
Dial-In Silver to Platinum
• Density
• Use mix
• Jobs/housing balance
• Housing diversity/affordability
• Pedestrian network
• Bicycle network
• Transit service
• Street network
• Building form & function
• Visitability & universal design
• Green building performance
• Site disturbance
• Climate integration
• Infrastructure efficiency

22. LEED-ND Low Carbon Totals
63
ND Points
Gold
Certificatio
n
&
30% CO2
Reduction
12,000
CO2 lbs/capita/
year
avoided

23. Criterion Planners
Arizona State University Urban
Research Lab

24. Criterion Planners
Arizona State University Urban
Research Lab

25. Cool New Tools for
• Portland Metro Context Scenarios
• City of Portland PDX BikeShare
• US EPA Smart Location Database & Impervious Surface Growth Model
• US EDA Triple Bottom Line Tool (beta now open)
• USGBC RegGIS

26. Online Neighborhood Dashboard: Portland Metro Context

27. PDX BikeShare: Crowd-Sourced Scenarios
OpenPlans.org

28. U.S. EPA
• Smart Location Database
• Impervious Surface Growth Model
SLD
ISGM

29. U.S. EDA

30. INDEX RegGIS use case: what portions of a Minneapolis transit corridor
merit heat island reduction & stormwater mgmt?

31. INDEX RegGIS use case: what portions of a Minneapolis transit corridor
merit heat island reduction & stormwater mgmt?

32. INDEX RegGIS use case: what portions of a Minneapolis transit corridor
merit heat island reduction & stormwater mgmt?

33. 1. Locate Floodplains

34. 1. Locate Floodplains
2. Buffer Floodplains

35. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands
2. Buffer Floodplains

36. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands
2. Buffer Floodplains 4. Buffer Wetlands

37. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands
5. Union Buffered Floodplains
2. Buffer Floodplains
and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands

38. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands
5. Union Buffered Floodplains
2. Buffer Floodplains
and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands
6. Locate Tree Canopy

39. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands
5. Union Buffered Floodplains
2. Buffer Floodplains
and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands
6. Locate Tree Canopy from
7. Subtract Tree Canopy
Unioned Floodplains and Wetlands

40. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands
5. Union Buffered Floodplains
2. Buffer Floodplains
and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands
6. Locate Tree Canopy from
7. Subtract Tree Canopy 8. Locate Impervious Surfaces
Unioned Floodplains and Wetlands

41. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands
5. Union Buffered Floodplains
2. Buffer Floodplains
and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands
6. Locate Tree Canopy from
7. Subtract Tree Canopy 8. Intersect Impervious Surfaces
9. Locate Impervious Surfaces
Unioned Floodplains and Wetlands

42. 1. Locate Floodplains 3. Locate Wetlands
5. Union Buffered Floodplains
2. Buffer Floodplains
and Wetlands 4. Buffer Wetlands
10. Apply LEED-ND credits for heat islands and stormwater mgmt.
6. Locate Tree Canopy from
7. Subtract Tree Canopy 8. Intersect Impervious Surfaces
9. Locate Impervious Surfaces
Unioned Floodplains and Wetlands

43. Favorite
Neighborhood Planning
References

44. Mechanics of Tool-Supported
Scenario Planning

45. Scenario Planning Going Forward
• More web software/mobile apps, less desktop/expert based.
• Open source GIS overtakes ESRI in innovation/local markets.
• BIM (bldg info models) linked dynamically with GIS/visualization tools
and analytics.
• Greater availability of more reliable national datasets at smaller scales.
• Hyper feedback from engagement tools/social media; too much of a
good thing?
• Expanded use of scenarios, especially short term problem solving,
leads to greater uptake by practitioners/citizens.