The document discusses the challenges facing higher education in the UK given potential future disruptions from issues like declining energy supplies, climate change, and economic constraints. It argues that higher education needs to develop resilience by focusing on skills for civil society, engaging diverse voices, and empowering communities. To do so, education needs to move beyond traditional subject-driven approaches and involve authentic partnerships to better prepare learners and society for uncertainty.

1. Is the current form of Higher Education in the UK viable? Developing a resilient education. Richard Hall (rhall1@dmu.ac.uk, @hallymk1) Joss Winn (joss@josswinn.org, @josswinn)

2. What is the role of higher education, in a world that faces significant disruption?

4. HEFCE: not much disruption

5. HEA: not much disruption

6. JISC: not much disruption

7. disruption beyond HE There is a strong correlation between energy use and GDP. Global energy demand is on the rise yet oil supply is forecast to decline in the next few years. There is no precedent for oil discoveries to make up for the shortfall, nor is there a precedent for efficiencies to relieve demand on this scale. Public sector debt is a burden that ultimately requires economic growth to pay it off. Energy supply looks likely to constrain growth. Global emissions currently exceed the IPCC 'marker' scenario range. The Climate Change Act 2008 has made the -80%/2050 target law, yet this requires a national mobilisation akin to war-time. Probably impossible but could radically change the direction of HE in terms of skills required and spending available.

8. I = P x A x T The impact of human activities (I) is determined by the overall population (P), the level of affluence (A) and the level of technology (T). Even as the efficiency of technology improves, affluence and population scale up the impacts.

9. Technology as an efficiency factor? Where did the efficiencies go?

10. We are energy efficient! “ Energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years. Without energy efficiency improvements, the OECD nations would have used approximately 49% more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998.” Small print: Nevertheless, OECD energy use continues to rise. In 2000 it was 39% higher than in 1973.

11. Aren’t we?

12. We are, aren’t we?

13. Economy wide rebound effect

14. Economic sense?

15. more efficiently unsustainable.

16. In a business-as-usual scenario, global energy demand is forecast to rise by 40% by 2030. Fossil fuels account for over 75% of supply.

17. (You can't run a consumer society on renewable energy) Net Energy/Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROIE)

22. What might the act of being a learner in C21st civil society mean?

23. resilience Rob Hopkins: Transition Culture “ the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganise while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks” Systemic diversity, modularity, feedback

24. action we have a choice between reliance on government and its resources, and its approach to command and control, or developing an empowering day-to-day community resilience. Such resilience develops engagement, education, empowerment and encouragement Political action or civil action? [DEMOS, nef]

26. Does higher education enable C21st society to address disruption? What should be done? Resilience: w hat do we value?

28. Licensing This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons, Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales license See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/