The latest ‘World in 2030’ foresight from Future Agenda looks at how electric planes may be the answer to faster decarbonisation of aviation.
As the pressure to clean aviation builds, using electric planes for short and medium-haul flights gathers support. Although some technological challenges are significant, investment and regulation align to accelerate development.
A growth in the use of electric planes has the potential to significantly cut aviation emissions, reduce noise and also potentially provide cheaper travel. At a time when, globally, we are flying more, there is a tangible opportunity to accelerate new technology development to electrify aviation. While some governments and cities plan for more airports to accommodate and stimulate more flying, public pushback against higher emissions builds with little interest in temporary solutions such as more carbon offsetting. As a result, the case for truly clean aviation gains wider support and brings together deeper collaborations across research, manufacturers, airlines, cities and travellers.
Drawn from multiple expert discussions around the world, this foresight is one of 50 looking at the key issues for the next decade that are being shared throughout 2020.
https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/electricaviation/
Restoring Earth
Despite heightened awareness of global warming, the proliferation of long-term commitments combined with short-term actions are failing to prevent the spiral towards catastrophic climate change and the continued collapse of biodiversity. As reality bites so does the pressure for more effective collective action to dramatically evolve politics, business and consumption.
This Future Agenda insight explores the challenges ahead and argues that, rather than focusing on the treating the symptoms it would be wiser to tackle the root causes of climate change. For example, by re-thinking mainstream economic principles which are not yet set up to account for the environmental damage that is being created. It suggests that a fundamental new form of measurement is required to ensure that we live within our planetary boundaries.
For more details https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/restoring-earth/
Diana Kool discusses the potential impact of climate change on the global economy and financial markets, focusing on energy sources and the growth of renewable forms
Covid-19 has accelerated the stranding of fossil-fuel-economy assets. What do...Jeremy Leggett
My latest Big Picture update for the team at Solarcentury, built around the latest report from Carbon Tracker, "Decline and Fall", published 4th June.
Apologies for typo in slide 4. Date in bottom caption should read 2023 not 2003.
A search for hope on the climate front lines in 2020Jeremy Leggett
My presentation at Cambridge University on 5th March. In it I describe an idea for a new people-power company to help lead the charge to a zero-carbon world by decarbonising, recarbonising, and pressuring foot draggers: ZeroCarbon Revolution. A video of the talk can be found at https://climateseries.com/
A history of the solar century so far: a tale of disruption, denial, and exis...Jeremy Leggett
An account of the oil industry's response to climate risk and the emergence of low-cost solar since that late 1990s as seen by a bit-part player in the drama. As presented in the closing keynote at the UBS Renewables and Energy Transition Virtual Conference, 17th September.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
Restoring Earth
Despite heightened awareness of global warming, the proliferation of long-term commitments combined with short-term actions are failing to prevent the spiral towards catastrophic climate change and the continued collapse of biodiversity. As reality bites so does the pressure for more effective collective action to dramatically evolve politics, business and consumption.
This Future Agenda insight explores the challenges ahead and argues that, rather than focusing on the treating the symptoms it would be wiser to tackle the root causes of climate change. For example, by re-thinking mainstream economic principles which are not yet set up to account for the environmental damage that is being created. It suggests that a fundamental new form of measurement is required to ensure that we live within our planetary boundaries.
For more details https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/restoring-earth/
Diana Kool discusses the potential impact of climate change on the global economy and financial markets, focusing on energy sources and the growth of renewable forms
Covid-19 has accelerated the stranding of fossil-fuel-economy assets. What do...Jeremy Leggett
My latest Big Picture update for the team at Solarcentury, built around the latest report from Carbon Tracker, "Decline and Fall", published 4th June.
Apologies for typo in slide 4. Date in bottom caption should read 2023 not 2003.
A search for hope on the climate front lines in 2020Jeremy Leggett
My presentation at Cambridge University on 5th March. In it I describe an idea for a new people-power company to help lead the charge to a zero-carbon world by decarbonising, recarbonising, and pressuring foot draggers: ZeroCarbon Revolution. A video of the talk can be found at https://climateseries.com/
A history of the solar century so far: a tale of disruption, denial, and exis...Jeremy Leggett
An account of the oil industry's response to climate risk and the emergence of low-cost solar since that late 1990s as seen by a bit-part player in the drama. As presented in the closing keynote at the UBS Renewables and Energy Transition Virtual Conference, 17th September.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
1.8.2022 accelerating-climate-action-usR. Jay Olson
Since Joe Biden took office in 2021, bold steps have been taken to address climate change and reengage in international diplomacy. But on December 19, 2021, Senator Manchin torpedoed Biden’s signature $1.9 trillion Build Back Better bill. So, what’s next? What can be done now to heighten urgency around the climate change crisis and accelerate transformation to a clean energy future in the U.S.? Learn how bold leadership and increased grassroots efforts can make a difference.
A summary of the climate change protection movement in the U.S. and action needed to further reduce greenhouse gasses and create a clean energy future. Progress has been inadequate. The war against the climate change crisis demands higher priority and more urgent attention by U.S. policy makers, law makers, the business community and citizens.
WWF: Policy Expectations for COP 19 WarsawWWF ITALIA
Oggi possiamo salvare il clima e conquistare un futuro di benessere per noi e i nostri figli. Bruciare i combustibili fossili per procurarsi energia e calore ha portato la concentrazione di CO2 in atmosfera ai livelli di 3 milioni di anni fa. Dobbiamo riconquistare l'energia, puntare sulle fonti rinnovabili e l’efficienza energetica. Occorre investire le risorse pubbliche e private nel nostro futuro. E invece i nostri soldi continuano a finanziare il passato fossile. E' ora di cambiare noi, non il clima." Mariagrazia Midulla, Responsabile Clima ed Energia
http://www.wwf.it/riprenditilenergia.cfm
Yuri Shafranik and Energy Industry
Who is Yuri Shafranik?
Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Institute of Energy Strategy,
Chairman of the Supreme Mining Council of Russia,
Chairman of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia, Chairman of the Committee on Energy Strategy and Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation,
Founder and permanent president of the World Politics and Resources Foundation,
Member of Russian International Affairs Council,
Member of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Cochairman of Russian delegation to the Dartmouth Conference,
Was Chairman of the Tyumen Regional Council of People's Deputies,
Was Governor of the region Tyumen,
Was Minister of Energy,
Founded the Group “SoyuzNefteGaz” and he is Chairman of the Board
Chairman of multiple energy related association, firm, non-commercial, state department related to Energy Strategy
Public figure, Entrepreneur, Expert in energy industry, Doctor of Economics, Chairman of multiple energy related unions, firm, non-commercial, state department related to Energy Strategy
Why energy experts have international meetings?
We need energy experts, unions, state departments, companies and great leadership. Energy experts do analytics, dialogues, and togheter with decision makers, they must be involved in the energy industry. International partnerships across countries are the premise of an efficient energy industry. Resources of coal, oil, natural gas, renewables are producing energy.
This is a free source to learn more about energy leading experts and the energy industry. Share with others to spread the word.
#Yuri Shafranik #Energy Industry #Worldwide
Why the UK government finally gave up on fracking shale for oil and gas. And ...Jeremy Leggett
After years of dogged support for fracked shale gas and oil, at the expense of clean energy, the Conservatives finally gave in today. This is a significant victory for environmentalists. But the implications are global, and are fully explored in this presentation.
New base 31 july 2021 energy news issue 1446 by khaled al awadiKhaled Al Awadi
NewBase 31 July 2021 Energy News issue - 1446 by Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase 31 July 2021 Energy News issue - 1446 by Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase 31 July 2021 Energy News issue - 1446 by Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase 31 July 2021 Energy News issue - 1446 by Khaled Al Awadi
The global context of Solarcentury's work: my presentation at the company's q...Jeremy Leggett
Latest developments in matters relevant to the solar industry in energy, climate, tech and the future of civilisation, spanning the period 24th July to 21st October.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
A factsheet with a summary version for many of the findings in the WEO report, published Nov. 2012. The report is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency. The 2012 version calls attention to the world-changing impact of hydraulic fracturing of shale gas and oil deposits in North America. Its worldwide impact, according to the report, is profound.
Flying towards a sustainable future: the transformation of air transportAndrea Mennillo
In reality, only one third of the sector's total emissions can be attributed to fuel, an area that, moreover, has improved tremendously in recent years thanks to cutting-edge engines and solutions that have considerably reduced consumption. For example, in thirty years, i.e. from 1990 to 2020, the adoption of increasingly efficient engines was estimated to have reduced fuel emissions by 43%, according to a study by the German Air Transport Association (BDL) . At the same time, however, demand for air transport has grown tremendously and the number of flights has practically tripled, with the prospect of further growth in the coming years.
Keep in mind that nowadays we are talking more and more about sustainability going well beyond "just" CO2 consumption, and including all the actual substances released into the air. For this reason, achieving the target of reducing CO2 emissions by 2050 will inevitably have to include action on airport facilities, which are responsible for the remaining two-thirds of the sector's emissions.
1.8.2022 accelerating-climate-action-usR. Jay Olson
Since Joe Biden took office in 2021, bold steps have been taken to address climate change and reengage in international diplomacy. But on December 19, 2021, Senator Manchin torpedoed Biden’s signature $1.9 trillion Build Back Better bill. So, what’s next? What can be done now to heighten urgency around the climate change crisis and accelerate transformation to a clean energy future in the U.S.? Learn how bold leadership and increased grassroots efforts can make a difference.
A summary of the climate change protection movement in the U.S. and action needed to further reduce greenhouse gasses and create a clean energy future. Progress has been inadequate. The war against the climate change crisis demands higher priority and more urgent attention by U.S. policy makers, law makers, the business community and citizens.
WWF: Policy Expectations for COP 19 WarsawWWF ITALIA
Oggi possiamo salvare il clima e conquistare un futuro di benessere per noi e i nostri figli. Bruciare i combustibili fossili per procurarsi energia e calore ha portato la concentrazione di CO2 in atmosfera ai livelli di 3 milioni di anni fa. Dobbiamo riconquistare l'energia, puntare sulle fonti rinnovabili e l’efficienza energetica. Occorre investire le risorse pubbliche e private nel nostro futuro. E invece i nostri soldi continuano a finanziare il passato fossile. E' ora di cambiare noi, non il clima." Mariagrazia Midulla, Responsabile Clima ed Energia
http://www.wwf.it/riprenditilenergia.cfm
Yuri Shafranik and Energy Industry
Who is Yuri Shafranik?
Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Institute of Energy Strategy,
Chairman of the Supreme Mining Council of Russia,
Chairman of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia, Chairman of the Committee on Energy Strategy and Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation,
Founder and permanent president of the World Politics and Resources Foundation,
Member of Russian International Affairs Council,
Member of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Cochairman of Russian delegation to the Dartmouth Conference,
Was Chairman of the Tyumen Regional Council of People's Deputies,
Was Governor of the region Tyumen,
Was Minister of Energy,
Founded the Group “SoyuzNefteGaz” and he is Chairman of the Board
Chairman of multiple energy related association, firm, non-commercial, state department related to Energy Strategy
Public figure, Entrepreneur, Expert in energy industry, Doctor of Economics, Chairman of multiple energy related unions, firm, non-commercial, state department related to Energy Strategy
Why energy experts have international meetings?
We need energy experts, unions, state departments, companies and great leadership. Energy experts do analytics, dialogues, and togheter with decision makers, they must be involved in the energy industry. International partnerships across countries are the premise of an efficient energy industry. Resources of coal, oil, natural gas, renewables are producing energy.
This is a free source to learn more about energy leading experts and the energy industry. Share with others to spread the word.
#Yuri Shafranik #Energy Industry #Worldwide
Why the UK government finally gave up on fracking shale for oil and gas. And ...Jeremy Leggett
After years of dogged support for fracked shale gas and oil, at the expense of clean energy, the Conservatives finally gave in today. This is a significant victory for environmentalists. But the implications are global, and are fully explored in this presentation.
New base 31 july 2021 energy news issue 1446 by khaled al awadiKhaled Al Awadi
NewBase 31 July 2021 Energy News issue - 1446 by Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase 31 July 2021 Energy News issue - 1446 by Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase 31 July 2021 Energy News issue - 1446 by Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase 31 July 2021 Energy News issue - 1446 by Khaled Al Awadi
The global context of Solarcentury's work: my presentation at the company's q...Jeremy Leggett
Latest developments in matters relevant to the solar industry in energy, climate, tech and the future of civilisation, spanning the period 24th July to 21st October.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
A factsheet with a summary version for many of the findings in the WEO report, published Nov. 2012. The report is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency. The 2012 version calls attention to the world-changing impact of hydraulic fracturing of shale gas and oil deposits in North America. Its worldwide impact, according to the report, is profound.
Flying towards a sustainable future: the transformation of air transportAndrea Mennillo
In reality, only one third of the sector's total emissions can be attributed to fuel, an area that, moreover, has improved tremendously in recent years thanks to cutting-edge engines and solutions that have considerably reduced consumption. For example, in thirty years, i.e. from 1990 to 2020, the adoption of increasingly efficient engines was estimated to have reduced fuel emissions by 43%, according to a study by the German Air Transport Association (BDL) . At the same time, however, demand for air transport has grown tremendously and the number of flights has practically tripled, with the prospect of further growth in the coming years.
Keep in mind that nowadays we are talking more and more about sustainability going well beyond "just" CO2 consumption, and including all the actual substances released into the air. For this reason, achieving the target of reducing CO2 emissions by 2050 will inevitably have to include action on airport facilities, which are responsible for the remaining two-thirds of the sector's emissions.
Electrofuels Are the Future: The Driving Force to Decarbonizing Heavy TransportAggregage
Join Ayesha Choudhury, Senior Vice President, Head of Capital Markets at Infinium, to learn why we need eFuels in the carbon neutrality mix, how eFuels are produced, and how Infinium globally scales eFuel production to benefit society
The environmental issue in the business model of the civil and defense aerosp...Hugo Wagner
Four-pillar strategy to build a greener future by looking at: alternative fuel, technological advancements, improved infrastructures, operational and economic measures and their consequences on the business model of the aerospace and defense industry.
Environmental issue in the business model of civil and defense aerospace indu...Georges Harari
Four-pillar strategy to build a greener future by looking at: alternative fuel, technological advancements, improved infrastructures, operational and economic measures and their consequences on the business model of the Aerospace and Defense Industry.
Keynote for ICME2022, entitled: ADOPTING ENTREPRENEURIAL MINDSET IN RECOGNISING OPPORTUNITIES AND COMMUNICATING YOUR SUSTAINABLE ENGINEERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY.
This presentation provides a brief insight on how to adopt entrepreneurial mindset in the aviation industry.
Keynote's abstract:
The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict and the concern on food insecurity are among major events that cause negative impacts to the well-being of the international community. Major industries around the world, including the aviation industry, are working hard to overcome these challenges. In recent decades too, aviation industry has long been recognised as playing crucial roles in sustaining the global social and economic activities. Therefore, major industry players must be willing to adopt changes to ensure survivability and still have significant presence in the business. One of the key enablers for change is the roles of the innovators, researchers, engineers, and technologists during this challenging time. As ever, they are always dedicated to produce effective solutions to ensure that scarce resources are being consumed in a sustainable manner. By adopting entrepreneurial mindset, they would empower their existing capabilities and consequently will enhance the competitiveness of their organisations or businesses. On this pretext, this keynote will attempt to address the importance of adopting entrepreneurial mindset for recognising opportunities and communicating sustainable engineering solutions.
Our NEW report out now: ‘The Paris Effect’ demonstrates that countries, companies and investors now have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to scale zero-carbon industries in the 2020s, creating prosperous growth, millions of jobs and more resilient economies.
globalaviaitonaerospace.com
The global business
The UK opportunity
Innovation in aircraft
Innovation in flight operations
Innovation in components and materials
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/RoadmapIEA-ETSAP
Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap
Uwe Remme, IEA
16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino
Future of Off-Premise Dining - Emerging View.pdfFuture Agenda
From ‘dark kitchens’ to ubiquitous delivery brands and grocery on-demand, where, what and how we all eat is undergoing significant and rapid change.
In a collaborative project, put together in partnership with McCain, we have been looking out to 2030 to explore and define how Off-Premise Dining might further evolve, and which of the multiple current trends are likely to stick? The emerging view is a first step toward answering the question. It reflects the key insights gathered from interviews and in-depth workshops with key industry stakeholders in Europe, the Americas and Asia, as well as the Future Agenda database and synthesised desk research.
The fight for future market share is already well underway, and significant bets are being placed on a wide range of future opportunities; from health-focused vending machines, through increasingly sophisticated mobile apps, to personalisation of food flavours. With so many significant shifts taking place simultaneously across the entire off-premise dining value chain, there will inevitably be winners and losers. We hope our insights can serve as a jumping off point for further discussion as to where the winners might emerge.
As with all Future Agenda projects, the aim is to challenge assumptions, identify emerging trends, and build an informed assessment of the changes ahead and their implications for strategy, policy, innovation and action.
If you’d like to be involved and add your views into the mix please do get in touch james.alexander@futureagenda.org
As companies and governments around the world grapple with accommodating changes in the workplace, the workforce and the nature of work itself, we are pleased to be continuing our Future of Work foresight programme. Building on previous global research undertaken over the past few years, we are now looking in depth at six pivotal issues that have been prioritised as areas of major potential change. These are digital skills, soft skills, reinventing roles, the blurring of work, green jobs and digital productivity. Initially taking a European focus, with the support of Amazon, over the next couple of months a series of expert digital workshops are exploring the core shifts ahead and their implications for organisations and wider policy.
This PDF sets the scene for the dialogue both within the workshops and more widely. If you would like to be involved or have comments on the potential changes ahead, do let us know and we can accommodate. As always all discussions are under the Chatham House Rule and so there is no attribution and, as we progress with each area, we will be sharing a synthesis of all new insights and recommendations over the rest of the year.
Future of asthma care a global expert view - summary - august 2021Future Agenda
Future of Asthma Care in 2030
Often hidden by many, asthma is a set of chronic conditions that will, some believe, impact around 1bn of us by the end of the decade. It will see new diagnostics, new treatments as well as gain new social and economic perspectives in many nations. As part of a global Open Foresight programme to bring together an informed outlook for all to use, this is a draft synthesis based on dialogue with 100 experts worldwide. At a time when lung health is front of mind for many, this is an important topic for our future health.
We are keen to understand your view on this. What do you agree with, what is missing and what may need an alternative perspective? Please do share any comments and feedback to douglas.jones@futureagenda.org and we will include everything in the final report that will made available later this year.
Future of work employability and digital skills march 2021Future Agenda
The Future of Work, Employability and Digital Skills
This interim summary identifies 50 key insights for the next decade on this critical topic. These open foresight findings are based on the results of 20 workshops and 150 interviews with over 400 informed experts from across academia, business and government conduced in the last 12 months. These were primarily across Europe, but also include views from US and SE Asia.
The varied discussions identified multiple key shifts that expected to have greatest impact over the next decade. The top 3 of these are seen as pivotal for society, for government, for employers and for future workers.
Building Digital Skills
Reinventing Roles
Developing Soft Skills
To build a richer, deeper view, we would very much welcome your feedback – especially on which shifts may deliver most benefit in the next ten years, and what is missing that ought to be included in the mix.
The UK in 2030 - An expert informed view on some key trendsFuture Agenda
At a time when there is much speculation on what the next twelve months may bring, some are also looking ahead to prepare for the longer term. What will the UK be like in 2030 when the nation is post-Covid, post-Brexit and post-Johnson? Now that vaccines are being rolled out and the initial outline hard Brexit deal has been done, how will the UK fair over the decade – economically, socially and demographically? What changes are already locked-in and what is open to future variation? Based on numerous discussions with a wide range of experts across the UK in late 2020, this document explores some of the key potential trends for the next decade and highlights where the UK may be heading.
Having a well-defined future view is never easy – particularly in times of uncertainty. However, if we can differentiate between the certain, the probable and the possible we can build a clearer picture of the future which may help to challenge assumptions. Since 2010, Future Agenda has been using open foresight to explore decade-long trends with a high degree of accuracy. The World in 2020, written in 2010 for example, accurately anticipated a range of developments such as a global pandemic, the challenges around data privacy, the scaling up of electric and autonomous vehicles, the widespread use of drones and the building impact of solar energy. All of these were anticipated through extensive expert dialogue across multiple disciplines to curate an integrated, informed perspectives which can be accessed by everyone.
We used a similar approach to explore the pivotal shifts ahead for the UK. Following multiple expert discussions including academics, regional and central government, social and business leaders, as well as the military, this document summarises eight areas of alignment about UK 2030 but also highlights three fields where there is substantial difference of opinion.
Our conversations identified eight core areas where we can have confidence that changes will take place. These trends are:
1. A Changing Demographic Mix
2. Accelerating to Zero Carbon
3. Improved Digital Connectivity
4. Declining Economic Influence
5. More Devolved Power
6. Rising Inequality
7. Emphasis on the Local
8. UK Leadership
Future of retail - Five key future trends - 9 Dec 2020Future Agenda
Future of Retail – Five Key Trends
The pandemic has accelerated change across many sectors – and especially retail. More online, less physical and empty malls have been evident globally. So what about the next ten years? What changes will continue to accelerate, which will rebalance, and which new ones will emerge?
Based on extensive dialogue with retail, tech and city leaders globally, this new point of view brings together the major shifts in the mix collated under five key trends – Reemphasis on the Local, Identity Insights, Automated Retail, Continuous Interaction and Informed Consumers.
Now being used to stimulate new thinking, innovation and strategy development in multiple projects around the world, this is being shared to continue dialogue on changes and impact.
We welcome your views @futureagenda
The third programme has taken place during 2020, engaging more experts on the pivotal shifts via virtual workshops and wider community debate.Here are ten issues that will provide future challenge and opportunity.
E7 Not G7
As global GDP rises, the seven largest emerging economies (E7) have increasing economic power. The relative influence of the old G7 Western powers declines.
Data Sovereignty
Large-population emerging economies see the protection of their data as a national priority. Wider data sharing is restricted to within national borders.
The Race to Net Zero
Cities, countries and companies compete to set the standards for the planet.Fully reducing emissions is central for energy, health and economic targets.
Electric Aviation
As the pressure to decarbonise aviation builds and technology challenges are addressed, using electric planes for short / medium-haul flights gathers support.
The Stakeholder Society
The shift from maximising shareholder value to a stakeholder focus accelerates. Organisations’ purpose, action and performance measurement realign.
Migrating Diseases
Health systems struggle to address the impact of climate change. The increased spread of ‘old’ vector-borne diseases challenge nations for whom they are ‘new’.
Peak Soil
After water and air quality, attention shifts to soil. It impacts everything from food and health to conflict and migration. Action follows deeper understanding.
True Personalisation
Ubiquitous facial recognition and digital identity combine with wider AI adoption to enable the creation and delivery of truly individualised experiences.
Resilience by Design
Global supply chains evolve to be more flexible, shared regional supply webs. Competitors access shared, not proprietary, networks and systems.
Proof of Immunity
Public concerns about health security override worries about privacy. Governments integrate immunity and health data with national identities.
More details on www.futureagenda.org
Future of work employability and digital skills nov 2020Future Agenda
Future of Work, Employability and Digital Skills
As the world of work changes, how will organisations, society and individuals adapt to ensure that the current and the next generation will be able to acquire the skills necessary for future jobs? Building on previous Future Agenda research that focussed on key policy areas primarily in the Asian market and, more recently, an updated outlook on the future of work and skills development developed in partnership with the University of Bristol, School of Management, we are very pleased to be starting a new phase of research. As well as an analysis of the future of work, this will specifically explore the shifting nature of employability and how and where digital skills will have impact.
Over the next few months, expert views from across Europe will be shared in order to develop a richer understanding of key issues and how they vary across different jurisdictions. As with all Future Agenda projects, the aim is to challenge assumptions, identify emerging trends and build an informed assessment of the changes ahead and their implications for policy and action.
If you would like to be involved and add your views into the mix, please get in touch.
Future of retail global trends summary nov 2020Future Agenda
This is an updated summary of 60 global trends that may impact the world of retail over the next decade. Multiple expert discussions across Asia, Europe, MENA and North America have developed and shared these insights that have been curated into ten key shifts.
As we finalise the future views before wider public sharing, we very much welcome your feedback on these and which may have greatest future impact.
douglas.jones@futureagenda.org
@futureagenda
The UK in 2030
In the midst of all the current uncertainty, many people are seeking greater clarity around how the future may unfold – both globally and locally. Therefore, as part of the World in 2030 project, we have curated a specific perspective on the UK in 2030.
As with all our Open Foresight projects, UK 2030 is built through dialogue with informed individuals holding alternative outlooks on how things may unfold. This PDF provides an initial collation of some of their views on what is certain, probable and possible. We will use it to initiate further period of consultation over the next month.
With this in mind we would very much welcome your thoughts – especially around the areas that you agree with, those you disagree with and your suggestions about what is missing. Your knowledge will add both richness and depth to this point of view. We will share an updated and more detailed summary before Christmas. The ambition is that this can then be used to both inform and challenge assumptions so we can all gain a clearer perspective on the future of the UK.
@futureagenda
london@futureagenda.org
The world's most innovative cities past present future - oct 2020Future Agenda
Cities are where innovation happens, where most ideas form and economic growth largely stems. For centuries, the world’s most innovative cities have been acting as global catalysts for change, and will continue to do so. As more cities seek to have impact over the next decades, we need to better understand what drives success and so identify those that may have greatest lasting impact.
APPROACH – Getting Clarity
Future Agenda has been conducting multiple discussions around the world on the future of cities (www.futureofcities.city). Our aim is to explore the range of views about what makes one city more successful, more influential and more innovative than other, and also consider key related issues such as the future of work, health, trade, trust, transport and data.
In addition, we have applied a similar modelling technique to those applied to Innovation Leaders which, for twenty years, has identified the companies that have been the best and most sustained innovators, in order to assess what potentially makes one city more innovative than another. Exploring multiple criteria, we have highlighted some core global catalysts for change.
To accompany a speech at the WRLDCTY event, this presentation shares some of the salient insights: It profiles some of most innovative cities of the past, identifying the key elements that contributed to their success, highlights some of the pivotal cities having greatest impact today, and, lastly, suggests ten cities for future global innovation leadership.
https://www.futureofcities.city
https://www.wrldcty.com
https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Data as an Asset – A Top Risk?
The concept of data being accounted for as an 'asset' is increasingly considered to be a top future risk. The fifth of our 2030 digital workshops in collaboration with The Conference Board explored varied potential data risks (Many thanks to Ellen Hexter and Sara Murray for organising).
Rated top by 50 business leaders for future impact, and second for likely change, was a foresight that “organisations will be obliged to account for what data they own or access. As such they will be required to regularly report on their full data portfolio.” (See attached PDF)
Particular concerns were raised on; how organisations will best assign value to their data; how it will be treated as an asset; who will audit this; whether ownership will be transferred with use and how, if valued, data will be taxed.
Some felt that by 2030 there will be guidelines, standards and frameworks in place – other were less convinced. Most however agreed that many business models will change.
To explore this topic more see section 4.6 in the global report on https://www.deliveringvaluethroughdata.org
Add your view via @futureagenda on twitter or via LinkedIn on https://www.linkedin.com/posts/innovationstrategy_future-data-risk-workshop-stimulus-activity-6714470359971700736-MunM
While some regions gain from better water management, much of the world’s population increasingly depend on water moved from one river basin to another. New options are explored to achieve this economically and with reduced socio-environmental damage.
As part of the World in 2030 global open foresight project, this point of view shares some perspective on changes ahead.
With climate change, increasing urbanisation, growing contamination, higher water consumption, more intensive farming and rising industrial use in many economies all having significant and combined impact, as the global population approaches 10 billion, but the net amount of water on the planet stays constant, concerns over water stress have been building. With 70% of water used for agriculture, a quarter of humanity is now facing a looming water crisis. A broadening range of urban areas need multiple innovations to provide water to cities throughout the year.
Although better water management and the decreasing cost of desalination are having impact in some regions, in many others, and especially for fast-growing inland cities, the task of ensuring continued water access is mounting. Simply moving water from one river basin to another is not straightforward. It is fraught with technological, environmental, economic and socio-political challenge. There are however several developments underway to enable more effective long-distance movement of water – some focused on building new infrastructure at scale and others looking to imaginatively repurpose existing assets to help meet the inevitable future demand.
Share your views @futureagenda
Future of hospital design initial perspective - sept 2020Future Agenda
Hospitals of the Future
In partnership with Mott MacDonald we are exploring how hospital design will change in the next decade. Building on insights gained from multiple healthcare expert workshops around the world, this is an initial perspective that share some key thoughts on how and where we may see most change. Starting with context on shifts in healthcare more generally, from slide 28 onwards it includes 22 proposals for future design focus. These range from hub and spoke ecosystems and post-Covid reconfiguration to more flexible spaces and the impact of digital theatres.
As part of a global Open Foresight programme, we are now sharing these views to gain feedback for inclusion in a more detailed point of view that will be published later in the year. If you would like to add in your opinions on which issues will be driving most change in hospitals of the future, we would welcome input either directly to us by email (tim.jones@futureagenda.rg) or via this short survey: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/J9S8SB6
Many thanks in advance for your collaboration on another key topic for future change.
Future Risk: 12 Key Issues for Insurance in the Next DecadeFuture Agenda
The insurance sector is facing major change - from both within and outside. What will be the major shifts over the next decade that have greatest impact? As part of the World in 2030 project, this is an initial view of 12 major trends that will influence insurance globally - looking across data shifts, market trends and in-sector innovations.
What do you think? Which will have greatest impact? Will it be automatic insurance? or N=1 personalisation?
Let us know your views and we can include them in an updated foresight in the next month or so.
Get in touch via douglas.jones@futureagenda.org
For more on The World in 2030 see: https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Porous Organisations
Here is our latest 2030 foresight.
This time we focus on the challenges for the future of work. Increasing competition for talent forces organisations to open their doors to a growing number of independent workers. This makes it difficult to maintain corporate knowledge and becomes a challenge for business big and small. In a highly volatile and increasingly complex landscape, many must learn how to manage a seamless flow of knowledge and ideas so they can adapt to changing customer demands, ensure capabilities are maintained and keep the doors to innovation open. Looking ahead, it seems that only the wealthiest and most attractive organisations (in the main technology companies) will be able to retain the loyalty of their employees. For everyone else, building and preserving corporate know-how within increasingly porous organisational boundaries will become a priority. As ever your thoughts and provocations are very welcome.
To access via website https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/porous-organisations/
New solid-state batteries offer safer, higher performance than existing options and become viable options for use across multiple sectors. Competitive pricing and proactive policymaking accelerate global uptake.
This foresight is part of the World in 2030 project exploring the key global shifts for the next decade - https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Battery development has become a priority area for a broadening range of companies in recent years. Significant investment is underway as a number of new technologies compete for fast-growing markets. Five years ago, we identified that energy storage was the missing piece of the renewables jigsaw: “If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport industry.” Today, as economies focus on faster decarbonisation and increasing electrification, particularly in transportation, the speed of new battery development has become a central issue for many researchers, policy makers, investors and companies.
Why is this? If we can get significantly more energy from a lighter, more compact, but affordable battery then the implications are enormous. Not only will this accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles by extending their range and providing a cheap way to store renewable, particularly low cost solar, energy, but it will also release a host of new developments in other areas from wearable electronics to electric planes, drones and scooters.
Given the demand for high performing batteries is building, it is hardly surprising that there is as much focus today on creating the batteries of tomorrow as there was when the first rechargeable battery was invented 160 years ago: according to a USPTO search in the past decade or so over 200,000 battery related patents have been issued. The rush to deliver the next generation technology is bringing together a host of new partnerships and foremost in many discussions is the potential impact of solid-state batteries. Within the next decade these could become the catalysts for substantial and lasting change across many sectors.
Soil is fundamental, fragile and finite. It impacts everything from food and health to conflict and migration. Deeper understanding of its degradation raises the significance of soil to equal that of climate change and biodiversity loss.
We know that the quality of our soil is the key to the food we grow, the clothes we wear and the water we drink. It recycles nutrients, sequesters carbon, is fundamental to biodiversity, helps keep our ecosystems in balance and is an essential part of our general wellbeing. But, although soil represents the difference between survival and extinction for most terrestrial life, human activities have caused it harm leading to compaction, loss of structure, nutrient degradation, increasing salinity and denuding landscapes. Furthermore, the urgent need to preserve soil receives relatively little attention from governments. An unsung hero of our planet, it is fragile, infinitely important and finite. Why do we treat it with such disregard?
As part of the World in 2030 programme, this foresight explores the future of soil and the stresses ahead https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/peaksoil/
During the coldest months, Italy transforms into a winter wonderland, providing visitors with a very unique experience. From the Settimana Bianca ski event to the lively Carnevale celebrations, Italy's winter festivities provide something for everyone. Enjoy hot cocoa, eat hearty comfort foods, and buy during winter deals. Explore the country's rich cultural past by participating in Settimana Bianca, and Carnevale, sipping hot chocolate, shopping during winter deals, and indulging in winter comfort foods. Visit our website https://timeforsicily.com/ for more information.
Exploring Montreal's Artistic Heritage Top Art Galleries and Museums to VisitSpade & Palacio Tours
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Discover Palmer, Puerto Rico, through an immersive cultural tour that unveils its rich history and vibrant traditions. Experience lively festivals, savor authentic cuisine, and explore local markets. Visit historical landmarks, museums, and stunning colonial architecture. Engage with friendly locals, enjoy live music, and hike scenic nature trails, all while participating in cultural workshops and discovering unique artisan crafts.
The Cherry Blossom season in Hunza begins in the second week of March and lasts until the end of April, varying with altitude. During this enchanting period, tourists from around the world flock to Hunza Valley to witness its transformation into a vibrant tapestry of white, pink, and green. The valley comes alive with cherry blossoms, creating a picturesque and mesmerizing landscape that captivates visitors.
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3. 3
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
A growth in the use of electric planes has the
potential to significantly cut aviation emissions,
reduce noise and also potentially provide cheaper
travel. At a time when, globally, we are flying more,
there is a tangible opportunity to accelerate new
technology development to electrify aviation.
While some governments and cities plan for more
airports to accommodate and stimulate more flying,
public pushback against higher emissions builds
with little interest in temporary solutions such as
more carbon offsetting. As a result, the case for
truly clean aviation gains wider support and brings
together deeper collaborations across research,
manufacturers, airlines, cities and travellers.
4. 4
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
Aviation is in the midst of a significant surge. The
industry directly and indirectly provides considerable
economic and social impact. The sector estimates
that it enables $2.7 trillion of economic benefit and
65m jobs worldwide.1
Tourism, of which flying is a
significant part, currently contributes around 10%
of world GDP and accounts for a similar proportion
of jobs. Demand has doubled over the past 15
years and is set to do the same again – adding
another 40,000 or so aircraft in the next 20 years.2
As a result, airlines have become more profitable
in the past 5 years than they were in the preceding
40. But this is not without cost. Despite ongoing
improvements in efficiency, flying will account for
3.5% of global energy related CO2 emissions by
2030, up from just over 2.5% today. There are
very real concerns about the effect this will have
on climate change. Indeed, according to IEA
projections, it will account for around 15% of global
oil demand growth by 2030.3
So, how can the
sector satisfy the appetite for travel and the demand
for international trade at the same time as reducing
its overall impact on the environment?
Some commitments to limit emissions growth have
already been made. For instance, by 2050, the
industry has agreed to reduce the level of emissions
generated to half of that in 2005.4
Several are even
aiming for zero emissions by 2050 - but are relying
heavily on carbon offsetting such as planting more
trees as part of this.5
Many do not consider this
to be adequate. If we are to meet the goals of the
Paris Agreement, some suggest that real emissions
growth needs to be reversed and brought right
down to zero by 2050. Over the next decade
expect public and government calls for faster
decarbonisation to be increasingly vocal.
The Growth in Flying
Despite ongoing improvements in
efficiency, flying will account for 3.5% of
global energy related CO2 emissions by
2030, up from just over 2.5% today.
5. 5
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
The airline industry is seeking to improve
environmental performance by introducing advances
including lighter planes with better engines and
enhanced fuel efficiency – but, even so, there will
still be a net increase in emissions. While Boeing
claims that market growth has become decoupled
from emissions growth (it quotes an average 5.9%
growth in air traffic over the past twenty years
resulting in an annual rise of 2.4% in emissions)
the sector is still increasing emissions and slowly
accepting the need for faster decarbonisation.6
Several alternative propulsion options are being
explored in research labs. However, with typical
product lifespans of 20 to 30 years, a rapid
changeover of the global aviation fleet to a new
breakthrough design is unlikely. Instead the ambition
is to accelerate the adoption of biofuels and so help
to “stop emissions, not flying.”7
Decarbonisation of Aviation
As with the car industry 30 years ago, a gradual
blending of biofuels with standard fossil-fuel
products is considered to be a good way to
manage an environmental transition in aviation. But,
although there some progress has been made, by
2018, after a decade of testing, biofuels accounted
for just 0.1% of consumption and, even in the
most optimistic scenarios, are only expected to
10% of the sector’s fuel supply by 2030.8
In 2020
only five airports provide regular aviation biofuel
distribution (Bergen, Brisbane, Los Angeles, Oslo
and Stockholm).
The problem is that biofuels are more expensive
than traditional kerosene and airlines are largely
unwilling to bear the cost. One option is additional
passenger taxes to cover the extra expenditure
which would be equivalent to around $10 for an
economy transatlantic flight or $30 for London
to Sydney. But in such a cost-competitive,
increasingly price-transparent market, most airlines
are wary of the consequences of this. As a result,
although biofuels have some potential to drive
down emissions, the impact of slow adoption and
unambitious industry targets, suggest that they are
not the real answer.
The Biofuels Option
By 2018, after a decade of testing,
biofuels accounted for just 0.1% of
consumption and, even in the most
optimistic scenarios, are only expected to
10% of the sector’s fuel supply by 2030.
6. 6
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
Less Flying
One clear response is to fly less. Within the business
world, the steady improvement and adoption in
low-cost video conferencing, AR and VR technology
is reducing the need for so many face-to-face
meetings and team events while, with growing focus
on companies’ environmental and social credentials,
reducing the amount of flying is fast developing
as both a reputational and cost benefit.9
It’s also
a healthier option. There is also a rising public
movement against flying. In Sweden the concept
of flight shame or ‘flygskam’ is causing a fall in air
travel with a reported 8% drop in domestic journeys
in 2018 and a 2.8% fall in international flights.
As highlighted in a Houston discussion, although
there are some countries where air travel is pretty
much the only international option – for example
getting to and from Israel and Qatar or crossing
between India and Pakistan – elsewhere there is
growing support for travelling by train.
The Swedish railways experienced a doubling of
demand between summer 2018 and 2019. Many
now see that several other countries will follow suit:
DB, the German railways operator and another
beneficiary of recent demand growth, is notable in
using innovative advertising to encourage more rail
travel and is seen as a key player in the introduction
of more European fast, direct train services.10
With
its extensive network of high-speed railways, the
Chinese government is similarly keen on encouraging
more people to travel by train and accelerate its
target to shift towards a greener economy.
Despite this, with expanding, wealthier, increasingly
urban middle-class populations the primary driver of
demand, around the world there are more airports
being built, more airlines being launched and more
destinations becoming available. The top 20 airports
globally have, for instance, added 700 additional
destinations in the past decade and further
development is expected as tens of major new
airports are opened in the next few years. Given the
growing momentum against the environment impact
of today’s air travel, some question the wisdom of
these investments.
7. 7
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
Electric Planes
Whatever your perspective, it is clear that the
aviation sector is in need of reinvention. Long-term
some are placing hope in radical new technologies
such as hydrogen powered planes - but these are
unlikely to have impact any time before 2050. More
likely in the medium term is however the use of
electric planes.
The idea of electric aviation has been in
development for over a century, but industry
priorities and the dominant influence of the oil sector
meant that kerosene-fuel based flight received all
the attention and investment. Today, as in the car
industry, a number of organisations are seeing an
opportunity to reassess the situation and revitalise
the possibility of developing electric planes which
can provide better performance than conventional
designs: With an electric engine, an aircraft can,
for example, maintain performance at higher
altitudes where the air resistance is lower but were
combustion engines operate less efficiently. The
aircraft engine can therefore be less powerful but
generate equivalent speed.
As we heard in a discussion in Stavanger, there are
clearly technical challenges to be addressed around
battery performance, fast-charging, large energy
storage as well as the size of planes themselves,
but the vision is that electric planes carrying up to
50 to 100 passengers could be credible for many
routes within 20 years. Crucially, several regulators
are in strong support. For instance, the Norwegian
government has a formal target that all domestic
flights will be electric by 2040 - one of the most far-
reaching ambitions to date. Others, especially island
communities such as the Orkneys, Hawaii and
Vancouver Island are also looking to introduce small
electric planes for short journeys in the next decade.
This highlights a core dilemma – whether or not
the future of electric aviation is a short-haul niche
market or if it could open up change at a larger
scale. There are different potential uses cases
for electric planes currently being debated for
short, medium and long-distance routes. But,
before discussing these options, clarifying the key
technology challenges to be addressed is useful.
The Norwegian government has a formal
target that all domestic flights will be electric
by 2040 - one of the most far-reaching
ambitions to date.
8. 8
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
Although developments are required in lightweight
motors, new aircraft design, more effective cooling
systems and faster recharging, it the field of effective
energy storage that is considered to be the primary
technical focus area for many. This is all about better
batteries by which we mean lighter and higher
energy density. The crux of the challenge is that
electricity from renewable sources is much cheaper
than conventional fuel, but current battery storage
options are many times heavier: Some suggest that
electricity can be up to 50 times less expensive than
kerosene, but jet-fuel yields about 40 times more
energy than an equivalent mass of battery. This is a
trade-off.
The major hurdle is ensuring the balance of how
much space in an aircraft can be used for energy
and how much is left for passengers and cargo.
As electric planes need lots of batteries to get any
useful distance, more of the aircraft weight is taken
up for energy storage compared to jets, so there is
less space for passengers - and thus the average
cost of each flight per passenger could be higher.
Moreover, traditional planes burn their fuel in flight
and so gradually get up to 30% lighter during the
trip – electric aircraft don’t as a charged battery
weighs more or less the same as an uncharged one.
New, better and lighter battery development is
therefore critical, and the electric aviation industry
is now making a big bet that energy storage
technology will improve significantly in the future.
With battery energy density currently rising by
between 5 and 8 percent per year this may be
possible in the long term. However, as several have
calculated, for batteries to be at a point where it is
economically feasible to work in small-scale aviation,
they will need to achieve five times their current
density - so it may take some time to achieve.11
Yet,
with NASA, Airbus and multiple leading universities
all looking at potential breakthroughs such as
lithium air batteries, which promise up to 1,000
times better energy per kg than today’s lithium-ion
designs, a growing number of researchers envisage
major progress within the decade – to a point where
batteries may well reach the same energy density
as jet fuel. This then means that cleaner and quieter
flights could become reality.
The Battery Challenge
A growing number of researchers envisage
major progress within the decade – to a
point where batteries may well reach the
same energy density as jet fuel.
9. 9
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
Potentially these electric flights could also be
cheaper: policy makers have a major role to play
to enable this. Subsidies are rife in aviation with
many cities and government focused on driving
regional economic growth using state-aid for new or
extended airports and more flights. Many see that
incentives need to increasingly align around cleaner
flying and help bridge the transition.
The question is whether governments will aim to
improve CO2 standards by just supporting carbon
pricing, marginal improvements from the increased
use of biofuels and wider compulsory offsetting - or
if they will be bolder. Options such as higher taxes
on kerosene, more stringent noise restrictions,
tighter air pollution regulations and applying VAT
to air travel as well as shifting the associated cost
from passengers to planes are all potentially in the
mix.12
The question is which nations will lead and
which will drive the scale of change that matters. As
with many shifts in decarbonisation, many eyes are
focused on the EU and China.
The Role of Subsidy
Many see that incentives need to
increasingly align around cleaner flying and
help bridge the transition.
10. 10
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
Of the three uses cases for electric planes, short
haul flights are an early focus – from larger drones
and air taxis to more substantial multi-passenger
options. Electric drones for logistics applications
are nearly here while passenger-carrying versions
and autonomous air taxis are now in testing in
Dubai, New Zealand and Australia. Commercial
services are expected to launch in the next couple
of years. Uber is a major investor in a design with
a 100km range, but many are also looking at the
Dubai Roads and Transport Authority partnership
with German Company Volocopter and Air New
Zealand’s plans for using Google-funded, Kitty
Hawk’s Cora autonomous electric air taxi in the next
few years. These all aim to carry up to two people
and so initially will be seen as replacements for
helicopters. However, there are indications that, as
cargo volumes increase, drone payload capability
is doubling every couple of years and so expect to
see a quick transition to an associated increase in
capacity over the decade.
There is also much development taking place in
conventional aircraft configurations. With two billion
air tickets sold each year for flights of under 800km,
the business potential for small electric passenger
aircraft is tangible. There is already regulatory support
for this; NASA is, for example, partnering with the
US FAA to come up with certification standards.13
Globally, including air-taxi drones, there are now
nearly 200 electric plane projects underway and, with
many focused on this short-range market, investors
can sense a major disruption on the horizon.14
Several concepts have already taken to the air.
• Airbus trailed its first single seat electric plane, the
Vahana, in 2018 ahead of scheduled launch of a
future vehicle in 2023; and
• In Vancouver in December 2019 Harbour Air
undertook the world’s first fully electric commercial
aircraft inaugural test flight lasting 15 minutes.15
Others are close to first flight:
• US based Joby Aviation is perusing a multiple
engine vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) design
that can carry 5 people up to 240km;
• Israeli firm Eviation has developed a prototype
design of plane that improves the way the
propulsion system is integrated into the airframe
but also has batteries accounting for 60% of
the total weight. This will carry nine passengers
and two crew for up to 1,000km at 3,000m at
440km/h. It is expected to enter service in 2022;
and
• At a larger scale, US company Wright Electric
wants to hit the sweet spot for electric travel -
carrying up to 150 people about a distance of
480km in a full-sized plane – and is partnering
with UK-based EasyJet that is aiming to use
electric aircraft in its regular services by 2027.
This is likely to be on short-haul flights, such as
London to Amsterdam - Europe’s second
busiest route.
Short Haul Flights
Globally, including air-taxi drones, there
are now nearly 200 electric plane projects
underway.
11. 11
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
There is also significant development underway at
the next level up – that of medium range flights of
up to 1,500km. But rather than fully electric designs,
the ten-year horizon is largely based on introducing
hybrid planes. Here, aircraft would use a mix of
conventional turbofan engines plus electric power,
enabling them to cut CO2 emissions significantly
by switching over to electric engines at the pivotal
points in a flight - take-off and landing. Such a
flexible hybrid system could be optimised to provide
the high thrust required for take-off as well as the
energy density needed for a long cruise.
Several demonstration projects are now nearing
fruition:
• Zunum Aero, initially backed by Boeing and
JetBlue, is focused on a family of hybrid 10 to 50
seat planes with a first flight planned in 2020;
• Rolls-Royce, Airbus and Siemens are working on
the E-Fan X programme, which will have a two
megawatt (2MW) electric motor mounted on a
BAE 146 jet.16
It is set to fly in 2021 and may carry
up to 100 passengers; and
• United Technologies is working on Project 804,
a hybrid electric demonstrator designed to test
a 1MW motor. The firm says this design should
provide fuel savings of at least 30%, should fly in
2022 and so be ready for regional airliners by the
mid-2020s.
Investment bank UBS predicts the aviation sector
will quickly switch to hybrid and electric aircraft for
regional travel, with an eventual demand for over
500 hybrid airliners each year between 2028 and
2040.
Medium Range Hybrids
The big problem is that currently 80% of the
aviation industry’s emissions come from passenger
flights longer than 1,500km and so rapid change
will require more than just faster technology
development. While short and medium range
electric prototype planes are gradually gaining media
attention, the prospects for electric long-haul flights
are not yet so rosy.17
Even assuming huge advances
in battery technology, with batteries that are, say,
30 times more efficient and energy-dense than they
are today, Airbus foresees that it would only be
possible to fly an A320 airliner for a fifth of its range
with just half of its payload. The larger A380, which
can fly 600 passengers 15,000km in a single flight,
would not reach 2,000km even if all the passengers
and cargo were replaced with batteries. On present
trends, addressing the long-haul challenge will take
way more than the next decade, but with stronger
regulatory support, greater investment, more
collaboration and, perhaps most significantly, public
pressure in key markets, long haul electric flight in
the next fifty years need not be science fiction.
The Long Haul Challenge
The big problem is that currently 80%
of the aviation industry’s emissions
come from passenger flights longer than
1,500km
12. 12
TheWorldin2030ElectricAviation
Leading in 2030
How far we progress by 2030 is very much up in the
air. Clearly with some established players’ interests
centre stage, not everyone wants to drive change
quickly. However, with the reality of climate change
increasingly apparent to the public and politicians
and major shifts taking place across land transport,
the pressure for meaningful change towards electric
aviation will very likely build. In a sector dominated
by a few global companies the arrival of a host of
hungry and ambitious start-ups will certainly be
challenging the status-quo.
Electric planes offer a credible alternative that could
radically improve performance for short haul and,
as hybrids, for medium haul within the decade with
multiple airlines all joining in. By 2025 we should see
fully electric flying prototypes for medium range that
will open our eyes for future potential. While some
airlines may well continue to make slow progress
with biofuels in the mix for long distance flights,
many see that changing the status quo below
1500km range is a highly attractive target.
Moreover, if prices are indeed lower than
conventional planes, then clean, quiet electric
aviation could well open up more local routes that
are currently unprofitable to operate. In doing so,
in regions without good public train systems, they
could offer credible zero carbon transport for many
of the city-to-city trips presently done by car.
To drive progress, it is clear that multiple parties
should take action:
• More governments need to join the likes of
Norway in being bolder and proactive on key
targets to give momentum to the ambition;
• Regulators should switch support from short-
term transition subsidies around offsetting and
incentivise electric planes for short and medium
haul as well as driving meaningful shares of
biofuels in the mix for long-haul;
• The airplane manufacturers, primarily Airbus and
Boeing, should further align and collaborate more
deeply with potential disrupters to the sector to
accelerate technology development; and
• Perhaps most importantly, key customers – be
they corporate or tourists – should become more
vocal in their support for systemic change.
Everyone agrees that electric aviation can be win-
win for all involved. The challenge is in building
momentum.