This document outlines key points about climate change, its impacts, and adaptation efforts in India and the UK. It discusses: 1) Key findings from the IPCC on the impacts of climate change globally and for India, including increased temperatures, sea level rise, and more extreme weather events. 2) How climate change threatens achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals and endangers India's development by worsening issues like water scarcity, food insecurity, and health impacts. 3) The UK and India's commitments and leadership on international climate agreements like the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol, as well as domestic policies and research on adaptation.

1. DFID Department for
International
Development
Everything you didn’t want to know
about climate change, adaptation,
India & the UK
Sean Doolan, Peter Smith
… and a cast of billions
Feb 2005

2. DFID Department for
International
Development Outline
 IPCC
 Climate facts
 CC, MDGs & development
 UNFCC, Kyoto Protocol & post-Kyoto
 First National Communication by India
 UK action
 India matters
 India vulnerabilities
 Adaptation approach
 G8 & EC Presidencies by UK
 DEFRA, BHC/FCO, DFID
 World Bank Trust Fund study in India

3. DFID Department for
International
Development IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 2000+ scientists, peer-review, consensus
 World Meteorological Organisation & UNEP
 Chaired by Pachauri, TERI
 First National Communication by India
 DEFRA, BHC/FCO, DFID research

4. DFID Department for
International
Development Climate change facts
IPCC 3, last 100 years
 global temperature risen by 0.6
 evidence of more extreme rainfall & drought
 mountain ice caps retreating , glacial melt &
outbursts increasing, snow cover decrease b
10% since 1960s
 mean sea level rise by 1-2mm a year in C20
 summer & autumn sea ice thinned by 40%
 insurance for weather-related events has
risen faster than any other sector
 2001, Mongolia weather-related losses equal
to 18% of Gross National Income

5. DFID Department for
International
Development Climate change facts
IPCC 3, next 100 years
 global temperature rise by 1.4 - 5.8 C
 land will warm more (oceans less)
 sea level rise by 9 - 88 cm
 global precipitation increase, but rainfall &
droughts more extreme
 by 2080s, further 80 M people flooded every
year, another 290 million people at risk of
malaria
 agricultural productivity decline
 poor most vulnerable

6. DFID Department for
International
Development
Increasing disaster losses
climate change or random?

7. DFID Department for
International
Development Climate change facts
IPCC 3
 physics are clear – greenhouse gases
cause warming
 warming takes time to start & to stop
 GHG concentrations increasing
 issue is future impacts, not today’s impacts
 possible impacts are large and wide-ranging
 future is uncertain – abrupt, synergistic
effects - changes in ocean circulation & de-
stabilisation of polar ice sheets

8. DFID Department for
International
Development Time lags & action
Some change unavoidable
 mitigation of causes is key
 adaptation capacity & measures integrated
into national development policies
 vulnerability & adaptation, coping strategies
needed for all countries – some key sectors
 continual adjustment of risk management
practices

9. DFID Department for
International
Development Climate change & development
Climate change threatens achievement of MDGs
 worsening water & food security
 diminished agricultural productivity
 infrastructure degradation
 human settlements affected
 habitat & land use shifts
 health impacts - increase in vector borne
diseases, flooding, deteriorating water quality
 population displacement, regional insecurity,
“water wars”

10. DFID Department for
International
Development Climate change & MDG 7
Climate change inadequately represented
 “Integrate principles of sustainable
development into country policies and
programmes and reverse the loss of
environmental resources”
Mitigation focus, not adaptation
 energy use per $1 GDP
 CO2 emissions per capita
 proportion of population using solid fuels

11. DFID Department for
International
Development
Climate change a threat to
development
 Improved conditions in some places
 But for bulk of world’s poor, climate change will make
daily survival even more difficult
Most important adaptive action is to improve livelihoods of
poorest
 Provide better capacity to cope with current pressures –
not just climate
 Look ahead at way that all pressures will change in
future
 Climate change will be an important component of
those pressures

12. DFID Department for
International
Development Responses
Climate change risks must be factored into
development investment
Tools
 research into impacts of climate change
 piloting adaptation techniques
 mainstreaming risk-reduction into development
assistance

13. DFID Department for
International
Development International commitment
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
 Goal - to stabilise greenhouse gas
concentrations at safe levels
 “common, but differentiated responsibilities”
 all parties commit to report & take action
 developed (annex 1) countries commit to
reduction targets & timelines (e.g. - 1990
levels by 2005)
 developed countries provide assistance
 periodic review, revision of commitments

14. DFID Department for
International
Development Kyoto & “post-Kyoto”
 Kyoto Protocol provides framework for
international action but only a step
 need wider, more comprehensive approach
 “UK will help secure an effective and equitable
balance between the economic growth needs
of developing countries and the need to
achieve global emissions reductions”

15. DFID Department for
International
Development UK commitments
 UK met UNFCCC target by 2000
- reduced GHG emissions by 15.3% from 1990
to 2002
- reduced CO2 by 8% from 1990 to 2002
- target of 20% below 1990 GHGs by 2010
- reduce CO2 by 60% below current levels by
2050
 Hadley Centre - regional climate model
(PRECIS)

16. DFID Department for
International
Development India matters
 Number of people in poverty
 Degree of vulnerability
 Economic size & rate of growth
 Emissions & future emissions
• India and China will be major determinants
of future climate change
 Great scientific & technical capacity
 Leadership role in G77 & “G4”

17. DFID Department for
International
Development India & climate change
 India one of most vulnerable countries – UN
Disaster Risk Index 2004
 G77 leadership role
 “common but differentiated responsibilities”
 Clean Development Mechanism (carbon
offsetting) leader
 4% global emissions, 6% by 2020

18. DFID Department for
International
Development Decoupling growth & emissions
 per capita
CO2 levels
far lower
than north
 emissions
intensity
(CO2 per
unit of GDP)
increasing
since 1990,
converging
with north

19. DFID Department for
International
Development Carbon intensity of economy
India
UK
India UK
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
CO2 per capita CO2 per GDP
India
China
United States
UK
EU average

20. DFID Department for
International
Development
Karnataka
farm productivity variability
rainfall
yield
profit/loss

21. DFID Department for
International
Development
Plunging water tables

22. DFID Department for
International
Development
Retreat of Gangotri glacier
Source: Earth Observatory, NASA

23. DFID Department for
International
Development
Annual maximum temperatures (1969-1990 and 2040-2060)
trend analysis Station Dehradun
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
0 10 20 30 40 50Years
Temperature(degC)
Annual minimum temperature (1969-1990 & 2040-2060) &
trend analysis
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Years
Minimumtemperature
(DegC)
Annual rainfall (1969-1990 and 2040- 2060) &
trend analysis
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
3500.0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Years (1969-74;1976-87;1991;1993;1998;2041-
2060)
Rainfall(mm)
(1969) (2060)(1979) (1993) (2049)
Temperature & rainfall
trends, Uttaranchal

24. DFID Department for
International
Development
Monthly Average rainfall for two time periods -
Dehradun station
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Months (January - December)
Rainfall(mm)
Average monthly (1970-1998) Average monthly (2040-60)
Rainfall shifts, Uttaranchal
Implications for growing season & cropping

25. DFID Department for
International
Development
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
Impacts on
cereal production
potential on currently
cultivated land 2080s
TERI
Who is most
vulnerable?

26. DFID Department for
International
Development Cyclones map
 Increasing
frequency &
intensity
 Days of
disruption to
fishing
 Storm surges
 Infrastructure
impacts - siting

27. DFID Department for
International
Development Vulnerability index for Indian coastline
 share of land area
affected by 1-m SLR
in total area of
district
 share of population
affected in total
population of district
 district level index of
relative development
 district level index of
relative infrastructure
development

28. DFID Department for
International
Development Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and
cover
• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and
labourers
• Literacy
• Gender discrimination
• Child mortality and
fertility
Technological
vulnerability
• Irrigation
• Infrastructure

29. DFID Department for
International
Development Climate sensitivity index
Observed (1961-90) HadRM2 (2 x CO2)

30. DFID Department for
International
Development Vulnerability profiles
Adaptive capacity +
Climate sensitivity
(monsoon dependence & aridity)
Adaptive capacity + Trade
sensitivity
(port distance & import-sensitive crops)

31. DFID Department for
International
Development
Jhalawar, Rajasthan
• drought prone
• low irrigation coverage,
literacy, infrastructure
Chitradurga,
Karnataka
• water scarcity
• proximity to city
• contract farming
and exports
Anantapur,
Andhra Pradesh
• semi-arid
• response of groundnut
farmers to import
competition
Jagatsingpur, Orissa
• cyclones, river floods
• loss of mangroves
• high population density
• acute poverty
• proximity to port
Raipur, Chattisgarh
• rice belt of central India
• crop diversification
• low literacy, infrastructure

32. DFID Department for
International
Development
Climate variability & change:
STREAM model
Implications for future national & regional water
availability
 increased snowmelt & glacial melt, higher
monsoon peak discharges, more
pronounced droughts
 sea level rise, increased salt intrusion,
coastal habitat degradation
So:
 food & water shortages
 increased population pressure
 increased vulnerability, decreased coping
capacity

33. DFID Department for
International
Development
G-M-B basin:
water availability 2000 vs 2050

34. DFID Department for
International
Development
Increased water tensions
 Increased competition for water - local to
international scale
 Regional tensions over transboundary
rivers
 Intra-state (e.g. Andhra Pradesh)
 Inter-state (India, Pakistan)
 Inter-country (India, Pakistan, Nepal,
Bhutan, Bangladesh)

35. DFID Department for
International
Development “Conventional” adaptation
 Adaptation an additional cost to be funded by
those responsible
 High uncertainty in climate projections
 Collaborative links with international
organisations
 Improve projections of climate change
 Identify hot spots
 Understand traditional coping strategies
 Build capacity in all sectors
 Mainstream adaptation into development

36. DFID Department for
International
Development
Usual outcome
 Assess literature
 Assess current & future vulnerability
 Increase local forecasting capacity
(downscaling)
 Assess institutional structures
 Develop adaptation options
 Costing & prioritising
 Implement priorities
 Monitor & assess outcomes
 Compare lessons learnt

37. DFID Department for
International
Development Messages
Based on these major points
 Urgency - climate change occurring now
 Climate change a threat to development
 Know enough about climate change to make
sensible decisions about adaptation now
 Climate risk management & development
perspective approaches
 Can we assess costs of adaptation?
 What are critical next steps?

38. DFID Department for
International
Development
DFIDI - World Bank
Trust Fund study
 Scoping study on vulnerability & adaptation
 2005 completion
 4 components
 coping strategies
 vulnerabilities & impacts
 response options
 screening tool for programmes

39. DFID Department for
International
Development
India – Current coping strategies
 Component 1: What are coping strategies of
populations most affected by current climate
variability & extremes, how effective are they, how are
these affected by government policies & programmes,
& can current coping strategies & policies be
strengthened?
 Select three areas (c. State size) – drought & flood
(AP, Or, Raj)
 Review & scoping of questions
 Advisory group & expert panels
 Case studies & surveys

40. DFID Department for
International
Development India – Tool box
 Component 2: How is climate projected to change at
regional level & what are projected impacts on water
resources & agriculture? Which regions and
community groups are most vulnerable to climate
induced changes in water resources & agriculture, &
which coping strategies might need to be enhanced or
modified to deal with projected changes?
 Revised projections well under way
 Extension of existing hydrological modelling to better
deal with human interventions
 New agricultural modelling

41. DFID Department for
International
Development
India – Explore some
response options
 Component 3: What are most important response
options available to all institutions, including GoI & the
WB but also state regional and local institutions, to
reduce vulnerability of communities to climate
variability and change?
 Stakeholder consultation to select range of response
options to explore
 Explore options with toolbox & expertise built up in
developing it
 Will team have the capacity to consider the
multiple pressures?
 Some exploratory cost–benefit analysis

42. DFID Department for
International
Development Good practice guidance
 Component 4: How and where does climate variability
and change pose a threat (or opportunity) to Bank
and other development projects, and what constitutes
good practice in managing these threats and
opportunities?
 Look back at past projects – where has adaptation
been considered/missed
 Look ahead at pipeline of projects – where should
adaptation be taken into account
 Indian governments & stakeholders engaged in a
similar process
 Begin to build up body of best practice guidance
 Develop screening & design tool
 Synthesis– short, technical and non-technical
versions

43. DFID Department for
International
Development
Restated message
Urgency – message for all governments &
sectors
 Climate change occurring now
 We are all affected – G8 message
 Early action can avoid many of the impacts
 The poor are currently, & in future, the most
severely affected
 Often live in marginal areas
 Least resources to cope
 Least resources to adapt
 Most vulnerable to shocks

44. DFID Department for
International
Development Core principles
Climate risk management approach
– assess & act upon threats & opportunities from
both existing & future climate variability,
including climate change effects, in all project &
country level activities
Development perspective
- adaptation recognized as part of development
process & not separate