Climate change and national security in Indian context - A presentation by Dr. Lawrence Prabhakar during the International Conference on Energy Security organized by Centre for Public Policy Research, Cochin

1. CPPR- Centre for Strategic Studies
International Conference on ‘Energy Security Challenges- Non-
Traditional Security Planning in India’
Climate Change and National Security:
Issues, Linkages and the Indian Context
12-13 December 2014
W.Lawrence S.Prabhakar, Ph.D
Associate Professor, Department of Political Science,
Madras Christian College, Chennai

2. Format of Presentation
• Elucidate the theoretical contexts of Climate Change and
National Security;
• Examine the issues and challenges and consequences of Climate
Change to post-colonial societies and their impact;
• Assess the Asian national security contexts and responses of
India to the imperatives of global Climate Change;
• Analyse the Indian context of Climate Change and National
Security deriving its links from energy security, security of the
littorals and development priorities
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3. Theoretical contexts of Climate Change
and National Security
Five Propositions:
• Theoretical constructions of Climate Change have ‘securitized’ the issue of
Climate Change warranting a institutional-security response for a systemic
imbalance that needs responses in policy and governance;
• National Security concerns of individual states vary widely on Climate
change exhibiting the ‘divide’ between the post-industrial world and the
developing world of ‘rising economic’ powers;
• Climate Change is an ‘interdependent construct’ that links social-economic
development; post-colonial apprehensions and the resource contention;
• Climate Change impacts on Human security, National security and the
ecological balance affecting food and water security of spillover with
regional-global effects;
• The Climate change debate has no consensus in its substantive detail
although there is now growing unanimity on the procedural
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4. Theoretical contexts of Climate Change
and National Security
• Three Theoretical constructions are evident in
the scholarship of Climate Change and National
Security:
a)Security Theory or Securitization
b)Social Constructivism and Climate Change
c)Critical Theory-Green Theory and Climate
Change
4

5. Theoretical constructions
• Security Theory or Securitization of Climate Change: Process outcomes of
“successful securitization of a transnational issue as an existential threat justifying
an extraordinary (usually military) response” Ole Waever 1998;
• Securitization is conceptually challenged by i) What does it mean to be secure? ii)
Who is doing the securing? iii) Who or what is being secured?
• Securitization is process-driven by a) Identities—the way entities label; b)norms-
rules socially enforced; c) cultures—the way entities classify, codify &
communicate—
• Therefore what constitutes a paradigm of Climate Change—securitized by the
dominant culture does not conform to other cultures
• Securitization by the developed world of Climate Change suits to their agenda of
focused military responses in the realm of (Military Operations Other than War
MOOTW)—but in the regional-global spillover spectrum they unintended,
diffuse, trans-boundary, operate over long time-scales, implicate a wide range of
actors, and require painstaking negotiation and cooperation among a wide range of
stakeholders.
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6. Security Theory or Securitization of Climate Change
• Realists and Neorealists have no conceptual appreciation on climate
change interalia with its human security consequences—as they
dismiss it as a “construction” of a transnational challenge having
secondary and tertiary consequences;
• Realists and Neorealists however advocate the employment of
military force—to secure the state-centric interests-- should the
unintended consequences of protracted climate change triggers
political conflict, refugee flows, contestation of resources and
spillover of border and boundary issues into the realm of inter-state
conflict or regional conflict;
• Securitization transforms a full range of issues from its non-
politicized entity to its politicization—triggering a governmental
decision of intervention to its culmination of an contingency
leveraging military and security prioritization. :
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7. Security Theory or Securitization of Climate Change
Securitization of Climate Change diverts focus from the real challenges
a) Addressing the complex problems of Human security and developmental
issues by polarizing the debate to a unitary world-view while the challenges of
human security are varied and complex in the developing world;
b) Imperative to ameliorating the three aspects of human security food security,
water security and environmental refugees;
c) Human security challenges emerging from Climate Change has a sound
response in Governance and civilian regime capacity rather than an enforced
military-operational response;
d) Non-military responses are evident in the form of regional cooperative
frameworks that involves the stakeholders of civil society, the local
communities and the governance process;
e) Nationally appropriate governance responses need to be linked with the
global response to Climate Change as it would address the uniqueness in each
regional setting
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8. Social Constructivism and Climate Change
• Constructivism envisages the world as coming into being—in a word,
constructed—through an interactive process between agents (individuals, states,
non-state actors) and objective elements of our physical reality
• Constructivist definition of security "an action or sequence of events that (1)
threatens drastically and over a relatively brief span of time to degrade the
quality of life for the inhabitants of a state; or (2) threatens significantly to
narrow the range of policy choices available to a government of a state, or to
private, nongovernmental entities (persons, groups, corporations) within a state
(Ullman 1983);
• Social Constructivism envisages that climate changes are a "threat multiplier"
and activism is needed to change peoples' attitudes from apathy into action;
• Constructivism envisages the enablement of equity and sustainability in Climate
Change and contends against the securitization process;
• Constructivism challenges the systemic realities of climate change while offering
emancipative agenda for societal and economic transformation through better
governance and human security based on human dignity and human
development.
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9. Critical Theory-Green Theory and Climate Change
• Critical Theory has an ambient platform that provided derivatives to a Green
Theory in IR and provides a rationale on Climate Change and sustainable
development
• Critical theory rejects the piecemeal, ‘problem-solving’ approaches that fail to
address social and economic structures of domination perpetuated by global
hegemony;
• Green Theory espouses on the critical issues of environmental domination
and marginalization--the domination of non-human nature, the neglect of the
needs of future generations, and the skewed distribution of ecological risks
among different social classes, states, and regions;
• Green Theory repudiates the lopsided frames of causes and consequences of
Climate Change with an advocacy of equity and sustainability;
• Green Theory is premised on the quest to achieve to reduce ecological risks
across the board; preventing unfair externalization and displacement, through
space and time onto innocent third parties.
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10. Climate Change and Post-colonial societies
• Post-colonial societies are viewed in the global prism to be catalysts of violent
climate change owing to persistence with the ‘old economy’;
• Post-colonial societies are urged to abandon ‘unsustainable’ economics and
energy strategies including mass agriculture that is said to be methane emitter
towards better green agriculture;
• Post-colonial societies are however in the realm of ‘resources’ and
‘technology’ deficit in the enablement towards new strategies that would
ameliorate ravages in the environment;
• Post-colonial attitudes towards industrialization and economic growth has
more primary priority rather than the impetus for sustainable development;
• Imperatives to levitate the social-economic growth patterns at any expense
• Weaker Governance and institutional capacities are the critical fault lines to
tackle violent climate change consequences;
• Fundamental difference in approaches: Developed world preference for
consensus based global response versus nationally appropriate state-centric
responses preferred by the developing countries.
10

11. Asian national security contexts-- India and imperatives of
global Climate Change
• Asian national security contexts are based on the realist-monolith conception
of security—since state-centric security conception predominates;
• National economic and industrial development spread on a time-spatial
context warrants—rapid economic industrial growth; rise in GDP; cumulative
accrual of Comprehensive National Power; aggressive mercantilism and
aggressive strategic competition;
• Asian economic and industrial growth is mandated for leveraging higher
standards of lives, ameliorate the social-economic conditions of life of the
people that entails high levels of carbon emission ;
• Reluctance to join the global consensus on ‘cap and trade’;
• Would not sacrifice growth for climate change mitigation;
• Asian security contexts demand that developed world should address the
climate change mitigation on the issue of the disproportionate share of
environmental ravages on a long linear spatial-time contexts
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12. Asian national security contexts-- India and imperatives of global
Climate Change
• State-centric policy elucidation and state-controlled policy formulation for
Climate change mitigation—plagued by inefficiency, corruption, bureaucratic
inertia and lack of political will;
• Equity and responsibility are the planks of Climate Change for India;
• Agreement on Climate Change would be based on a balanced assessment of
development needs and strategic interests—backed by subsidies and
technology transfers for compliance for international standards of Climate
Change;
• Asian economic and institutional capacities have come a long way in
developing resilience in withstanding violent environmental changes;
• Incremental capacity-building in institutional capital, innovation, human and
material resources and new direction to tackle climate-change induced
natural-physical, social-economic and civic-political challenges and problems;
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13. Matrices of Climate-Change threats and Challenges-
The Asian Context
• Accelerated glacier meltdown and runoff of river waters complicates existing river-
water sharing arrangements resulting in treaties abrogation and triggering of wars;
(e.g. India-Pakistan Indus River Treaty) –Himalayan glaciers meltdown is now
being disputed
• Loss of littoral land and rising sea-levels resulting in population displacement and
increases trans-border illegal migration into contiguous areas triggering ethnic
conflicts based on prevalent fault lines of conflict (Bangladesh-India’s Northeast)
• Submergence of islands in Indian Ocean and the displacement of populations
resulting ‘environmental refugees’ settlement challenges; (Maldives, Mauritius, etc)
• Opening of the Arctic North-West passage enhances Russia’s Arctic geopolitics
resulting in new preferred shipping routes -- affecting the strategic balance ;
nuclear submarines easier transit between the two oceans;
• Various physical geographical changes in the Himalayan region could lead to large-
scale relocation of military installations of India and China with similar naval and
littoral infrastructure being redeployed owing to sea-level rises.
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14. Matrices of Climate-Change threats and Challenges-
The Southern Asian Context
India-Pakistan Theatre: Jammu Kashmir—high risk in Himalayan glacier meltdown
(now disputed) medium possibilities of extreme weather—increased risk of war
due to water sharing disputes
India-China theatre: High probabilities of glacial meltdown—medium possibilities of
extreme weather—risk of natural disasters—diversion of river waters and trans-
border spillage or flooding due to high-rise dam constructions or artificial lake
storage;
India-Bangladesh Border: High probabilities of river overflows due to trans-
Himalayan climate changes-high probabilities of rising sea-levels and mass
displacement of people—high probabilities of extreme weather and greater risk of
mass displacement of people as refugees;
India-Sri Lanka—Rising sea-levels and mass displacement of Tamils from Northeast
to India
India-Nepal: High probabilities of glacial meltdown—natural disasters in the Trans-
Himalayan region—triggering mass displacement of people into India
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15. Indian contexts and linkages of Climate Change and National Security
• Indian contexts of Climate Change and economic growth does not conform to the
broader Western apologia for drastic measures that calls for changes in prevalent patterns
of economic-industrial growth that is now on the rise in India and much of Asia;
• Indian contexts of Climate Change and economic growth has a different ‘constructivist
lens’ than the Western construction of ideational and material factors that in the first
place was catastrophic in scope to the global environment;
• India contends and refutes the Western propositions of ‘blanket-globally enforceable’
Climate Change regimes that is lop-sided and flawed since Climate Change regimes
from Rio to Copenhagen do not focus on the equity and balanced scope of
development and the technological-enablement of the weaker economic states to cope
the changes;
• India’s ‘securitization’ of Climate Change is both a primary and a secondary variable
linked to the national security in its ‘traditional sense’; human security in the
‘comprehensive sense’
• Therefore India’s approaches to Climate Change is the fine balance of how it
configures its turbulent Southern Asian-Indian Ocean Region and how it copes with its
domestic development paradigm leveraging its own benchmark of sustainability.
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16. Indian contexts of Climate Change and National Security
Critical impacts on India would be on the following:
i) Adverse impact on Indian agriculture with diminished returns
reversing the high-input and high-yield farming operations—small
and medium farmers would be ravaged—consequent starvation
and greater social-civic tensions;
ii) Reversal of monsoons over the subcontinent affecting water
tables, agriculture production-ravages of land and loss of subsoil;
iii)Rising Inequality—Increase in BPL-increase of public subsidies—
rural surplus labor force-unemployed and in poverty;
iv)Energy use patterns; constraints on coal, oil and gas would cripple
India’s economic growth and productivity with no credible
alternatives to green economy;
v) Forced migration from other South Asian countries into India—
triggering mass riots and ethnic invasions 16

17. Indian contexts of Climate Change and National Security
• India’s responses
a) Governance response: Imperatives that India has better governance
and crisis response capacity—disparities in the various state machinery
capabilities—problems of lack of professionalism, inefficiency,
wastage, corruption
b) Infrastructure responses: Imperative to enhance infrastructure
developments; critical resource shortfalls in India’s critical
infrastructure; poor maintenance and lack of alternate infrastructure
options
c) Economic redemption responses: Imperative on perspective planning
that would balance traditional and non-traditional security challenges
by optimal deployment of economic resources; Imperatives for better
human security standards, food, water and health security standards
d) Technology development responses: Alternate energy technologies
development—priorities for R & D investment in non-conventional
energies; 17

18. Indian contexts of Climate Change and National Security
India’s responses
e) Co-operation responses: Need to develop convergent civil-military
interoperable plans and strategies to cope up with state failure, and
extreme natural disasters
f) Integrated state-civil society responses: State-centric architecture are
ineffective for climate change induced threats and challenges; imperatives
for effective state-civil society coordination. Deployment of state
machinery and effective backup by social and civic groups could result in
better grass-root responses
g) Military Operations other than war MOOTW by India’s military—
Imperatives for Indian Armed Forces for joint synergies and for
constabulary and humanitarian operations—New capacities- amphibious
and expeditionary capabilities need to be boosted along with prevalent
coercive capabilities
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19. Indian contexts of Climate Change and National Security
India’s International responses:
h) India’s Climate Change-National Security stand cannot be ‘autarkic’ it has to be
robust
to respond to the vagaries of the global discourse—yet maintain its ‘autonomy’;
i) India’s co-operation with the international community is vital since the reciprocity of
international technological, investments-subsidies would be forthcoming for a rising
power that is in a turbulent neighbourhood;
j) India would be the pivotal state that would be the ‘first respondent’ to the extreme
weather and climate change patterns in the Indian Ocean Region– with its augmented
civil-military capabilities for humanitarian relief missions, Indian entities state, non-
state-civil society and the military would be catalytic in responding to state failures,
state-implosions, ethnic invasions, refugee flows, Tsunami catastrophic incidents,
starvation and river water disputes mitigating from severe climate change;
k) India’s Climate Change posture would thus be a deft balance that would account for: i)
the Indian Ocean geopolitics that is in a flux; ii) catastrophic weather changes; iii)
interplay of traditional and non-traditional challenges and perils; iv) the imperative to
build its Human security paradigm and systemic resilience
THANK YOU 19

20. THANK YOU
February 2, 2015
Centre for Public Policy
Research
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Centre for Public Policy Research, Cochin, India
Email: cppr@cppr.in
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