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THE CONCEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE
UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN
ADDRESSING THE ISSUE
BY
CAXTON GITONGA KAUA
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THE CONCEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE
UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN
ADDRESSING THE ISSUE
1.0 CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is any change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity and that alters the composition of the global atmosphere (United Nations 1992). Climate
change is caused by the increment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the burning of
fossil fuels and land use (United Nations 1992). This causes increased radiation of infrared rays
back to the earth hence temperature increases through the greenhouse gas effect.
Climate change leads to increments in the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and storms
(IPPC 2007). These in turn constrain economic development (Rosegrant et al 2008) and decrease
agricultural productivity (Easterling et al 2007) especially in developing countries due to existent
multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity (1PCC 2007).
2.0 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Climate change worldwide is affecting biophysical and social systems (Maitima. J. et al 2009).
The spatial extent and intensity of these effects vary geographically from one place to another
depending on the location in the global atmospheric systems, regional settings, land cover, land
use patterns, topography and weather patterns (Maitima. J. et al 2009). These effects have
become a major concern for most countries of the world due to their longterm implications and
adverse effects on development activities with developing and underdeveloped nations being the
most affected (ECOLAO 2012) Indigenous people are most vulnerable to impacts of climate
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change due to their high reliance on climate sensitive natural resources, inhabitation of fragile
ecosystems and social, economic plus political marginalization (ECOLAO 2012).
According to IPCC (2007) global warming is now unequivocal as it is already evident from
observation of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice and rising global average sea levels. Global temperatures have risen by 1 degrees
centigrade since 1850 while glaciers and ice sheets are melting across the globe as temperature
records are shattered at alarming rates (Kirkland. E. 2012). The seas are rising and droughts, heat
waves, floods and storms are becoming more intense and frequent (IPCC 2007).
More so, IPCC (2007) observes that the global average surface temperature is likely to rise by
1.8 to 4 degrees centigrade by the year 2100 while the sea level rise may rise by 30 to 60
centimetre’s. These projected global mean temperature rises have even been revised upwards by
some quarters to 2-7 degrees centigrade with an increase of 5 degrees centigrade seeming most
likely given the current emission trajectories (Sokolov et al 2009). Climate variability will
increase almost everywhere with Northern latitudes experiencing more rainfall and the
subtropics experiencing less (IPCC 2007).
According to Rarieya. M and Fortun. K (2009), climate change will reduce agricultural
productivity by 10 to 20%. This will cause yield declines for the most important crops and
additional prices for the world’s staple foods (Nelson et al 2009). Climate change will also lead
to increase in the cost of agricultural production as farmers invest on more resources to counter
its effects (Maitima. J. et al 2009). Farmers will also be forced to shift to other crop varieties or
other areas that may be less favourable or even shift occupations by moving to towns to seek
employment or engage in business of which they may be less qualified or conversant (Maitma. J.
et al 2009).
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According to Ching. L et al (2011) there will be 20% more nourished children in the world by
the year 2050 due to the impacts of climate change. IAASTD (2009) observes that climate
change coincident with increasing demand for food, pasture, fibre and fuel has the potential to
irreversibly damage the resource base on which agriculture depends with significant negative
consequences for food security. Climate will also constrain economic development in developing
countries that rely largely on agriculture (Rotegrant et al 2008).
According to IPCC (2007) projections, crops production could increase if local temperatures
increased by 1 – 3 degrees centigrade depending on crop type for the mid and high latitudes but
further warming would have increasingly negative impacts. However, for developing countries
in lower latitudes especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions crop productivity is projected
to decrease for even the slightest local temperature increases (IPCC 2007). Increases in extreme
events such as floods and droughts will negatively affect crop production in the lower latitudes
thus overcoming a positive effects possible with moderate temperature increases (Easterling et al
2007)
The poor isolated rural communities in the global south, tropics and poles of which are
disproportionately poor are the ones hit hardest (Kirkland. E. 2012). The impacts are also
exacerbated by the degradation of existing ecosystems such that areas already facing
deforestation, desertification and other environmental problems tend to suffer more from the
effects of global warming (IPCC 2007). The impacts of climate change are magnified by
socioeconomic problems because poor rural people have low awareness about climate change,
live in poor housing conditions and have ill health which makes them more vulnerable (Kirkland.
E. 2012). Their little financial capital and political influence make it difficult for them to invest
in disaster preparedness or recover from one (Kirkland. E. 2012). This low adaptive capacity
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therefore means climate change will widen and deepen the divide between the rich and the poor
and erode the health and education advances for the very vulnerable (IPCC 2007) a situation that
is already happening in Latin America (UNDP 2007).
In the arctic region climate change has caused temperature increases that are twice the global
average, decrease in sea ice extent and thickness and extreme weather event are now more
frequent (Edgar. A and Carbonell. F. 2011). These changes have affected several aspects of Inuit
food systems such as fishing and hunting which provide essential nutritional intake in their diet
leading to health problems, food insecurity and other negative impacts (Edgar. A. and Carbonell.
F 2011).
According to IPCC (2007) climate change will further weaken the health status of millions of
people especially those with low adaptive capacity. Health issues directly related to climate
change include eye and skin damage, malnutrition, increased spatial distribution of vector borne
diseases, increased water diseases due to scarcity and respiratory diseases (DfID 2004).
According to WHO (2003) in the year 2000 climate change caused approximately 2.4%
worldwide diarrhea and 6% malaria increase in some middle countries. A 2-3 degrees centigrade
increase in temperature will cause a 3-5% increase in the incidents of malaria of which converts
into several hundred millions cases (WH0 2003 (F1).
Although today 790 million people already suffer from nutrition deficiency (DfID 2004). The
situation will aggravate with climate change in low latitudes where food production will go down
(IPCC 2007). Nutrition and food insecurity means effect on the health status of millions of
people with further implication for child mortality and especially among those living in
marginalized areas (DfID 2004).
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The impending harsh climate change scenarios will negatively lead to breakdown of the
reciprocity systems through which community groups help one another in times of crisis (Salick.
J and Byg. A. 2007). These networks may disappear in future when some groups become far
much more disadvantaged than others as to enable reciprocity (Salick. J and Byg. A 2007).
Climate change will also lead to increased biophysical vulnerability hence more intensity of
extreme weather events of which is already happening (Macchi. M et al 2008). It will also affect
the availability of natural resources of which indigenous people are highly dependent hence
increasing their vulnerability (Macchi. M et al 2008). Floods will on the other hand lead to
contamination of drinking water hence hygiene related diseases (DfID 2004). This will put
people and livestock at risk as they are forced to use these waters amidst acute scarcity (DfID
2004).
Increase in droughts will cause increased incidence of desertification and bush and forest fires
(Macchi. M et al 2007). Forest and bush fires potential increments will be due to increased fuel
loads, increased fire length of dry seasons, reduction in number of days suitable for prescribed
burns and reduced water availability for water suppression (Lavell. A et al 2013). There will thus
be a reduction in the availability of firewood forcing people to take less cooked food hence
diseases increase (Macchi. M et al 2008). Decrease in availability of firewood and water means
an increase in the time needed to collect these resources of which will reduce the economic
performance of those charged with the responsibility of collecting them (Macchi. M et al 2008)
Droughts will have an impact on biodiversity hence a significant effect on indigenous livelihoods
since they depend on it for food, medicine and other resources (IPCC 2007). This could thus rid
them of their capacity to cope with diseases and of important food sources (Salick. J and Byg. A
2007). Land use and land cover change due to climate change will seriously increase indigenous
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people vulnerability as it will force them into new circumstances and alter their traditional
ecosystem management systems (Macchi et al 2008). In some instances this impacts will so high
completely erasing their capacity to adapt and even loss of indigenous people’s traditional
habitats and cultural heritage (Macchi et al 2008).
Climate change will also result in altered phenology, shifts in distribution of biomes and
increased extinctions considering the fact that many would not be able to adapt to the rapid rate
of warming envisaged (Yohe. G et al 2007) Evidence of biodiversity ranges shifts have also been
demonstrated by Kuuman (2004) who showed that among the 29 vascular plants he sampled
there was an increase in altitudinal limits by about 165+/- 20 metre’s over the last 50 years
(Yohe. G et al 2007).
More so a meta-analysis conducted by Chen et al (2011) estimated that the distribution of species
has recently been shifted to higher elevations at a medium rate of 11 metre’s per decade and to
higher latitudes at a medium rate of 169 kilometres per decade. These rates are approximately
two to three times faster than those of a previous similar meta-analysis by Permesan. C and
Yohe. G (2003). These shifts will exacerbate existing threatening processes and alter species mix
and composition (Lavell. A et al 2013).
Climate change is expected to act as a disturbance event that will favour pest species (Lavell. A
et al 2013). Some sleeper weeds will find the emergent environmental conditions more
favourable while existing weed species will extend their range and colonize new areas (Lavell. A
et al 2013). Climate change will favour invasive species by acting as disturbance events that will
stress the existing species and create opportunities for more tolerant species that will replace the
native ones (Lavell. A et al 2013). Such tolerant species could be pests and weeds that are highly
tolerant and easily dispersible making them excellent opportunistic colonizers of disturbed areas
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(Lavell. A et al 2013). Some of these weeds that now occur in small pockets or limited
distributions may become much more prolific in their distribution and reproductive success as
the habitat and climatic conditions become more favourable (Lavell. A et al 2013)
Climate could also fundamentally alter the composition, structure and biogeography of forests in
many regions of the world causing increases in tree mortality associated with climate induced
physiological stresses and through interactions with other climate mediated processes such as
insect outbreaks and wild fires (Parks and Bernier 2007). Climate related changes will thus cause
forest to lose their resilience and these could reach a threshold beyond which forests can no
longer regain their previous states (Parks and Bernier 2010). Losing forests means losing the
carbon sequestered in them thus contributing to escalation of greenhouse gas emissions in the
atmosphere (Lavell. A et al 2013).
According to the Millennium ecosystem assessment (United Nations women watch n.d), climate
change is likely to become the dominant driver of biodiversity loss by the end of the century.
This will affect the social welfare and livelihoods of people in rural areas who are highly
dependent on biodiversity by reducing access to it (United Nations women watch n.d).
In addition to crippling their social welfare and livelihoods, biodiversity loss will also cripple
access to security, resiliency, social relations, health and freedom of choices and actions of rural
people (United Nations women watch n.d). Increased difficult in accessing resources sourced
from biodiversity will mainly affect women and girls who are mainly tasked with the duty of
collecting related resources hence denying them time to engage in productive activities,
disempowerment and exposure to sexual abuse as they are forced to go further afield in search of
these resources (United Nations women watch n.d).
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Tropical forests ecosystems around the world, the major habitats for indigenous people, are
highly vulnerable to climate change especially longterm changes in rainfall and temperature
(CIFOR 2007). Climate change could lead to forest fires of which are already being witnessed
and whose intensity is bound to increase in future (CIFOR 2007). This is even as deforestation
around the world continues to increase at an alarming rate (CIFOR 2007). This will have serious
adverse effects on indigenous people living in these forests since they are highly dependent on
them such that most of them are already suffering given under the impacts of climate change
(Macchi. M et al 2008). This is affecting their livelihoods with some of them being forced to
move into semi sedentary lifestyles and become integrated into the market economy that is not in
tandem with their livelihood situation thus increasing their vulnerability (Macchi. M et al 2008).
Climate change will also affect the behavior of certain natural signals used in indigenous
people’s early warning systems such as bird migration hence disorienting their lives (Macchi. M
et al 2008). Forest based schemes for climate change mitigation could lead to indigenous people
losing their land since they lack the capacity to defend their rights (Macchi. M et al 2008). These
schemes may also entail denying indigenous people access to forests or even transfer forest
benefits to other end while discriminating against indigenous people (Macchi. M et al 2008).
In the drylands climate change will exacerbate the already water stressed conditions leading to
severe droughts, malnutrition, water shortages and general increase in vulnerability of poor
communities (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Water availability in drylands will
decrease by 10 to 30% over the next 40 years due to climate change including extent of drought
affected areas with floods becoming more frequent (IPCC 2007).
This is in the backdrop of the fact that drylands constitute 40% of the worlds’ surface area and
are resident to over 2 billion people majority of whom belong are the poorest people on earth
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(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Most of these people are people who can be
considered indigenous by ILO standards including pastoralists, hunters and gatherers and other
traditional communities (International Labour Organization 1989).
Being host to 32% of the global biodiversity hotspots, origins of 30% of the worlds cultivated
plants and home to 40% of all the worlds cultivated crops, climate change impacts on drylands
will have a serious negative effect (Macchi. M et al 2008). More so according to the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment (2005), 10 to 20 % of drylands are already degraded and affecting the
livelihoods of millions of people with desertification ranking as among the greatest
environmental challenges in the world today (Macchi. M et al 2008).
Rangelands quality and composition will be impacted due to interactions between temperature,
rainfall and carbon dioxide composition with grazing and land cover (Maitima. J et al 2009).
Increase in temperature for example will not only increase drought stress in plants but it will also
increase lignification of their tissues hence affecting digestibility and nutrient composition
(Thornton. E 2011). Increased temperature and reduced rainfall will also increase rangeland
flammability resulting in a shift in species composition with increased fire frequency (Fischilin
et al 2007). The timing and amount of rainfall on its own also has an influence on rangeland
species composition in both the shortterm and longterm primarily through its differential effect
on the growth and reproduction of key forage species (Maitima. J 2006).
An extended drought can result in mortality of perennial plants and the switch to an annual
dominated flora (Hein 2006). According to Bond. W. and Midgley. G. (2003) increased
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration could result to increased bush encroachment with
reduced rangeland pasture productivity. This could occur due to the increased carbon dioxide
concentration hence faster growth of saplings enabling them to escape the height at which fire
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easily kills young trees and also due to the deeper rooted bushes being able to draw water from
greater depths as compared to forage plants (Bond. W and Midgely. G 2000).
As croplands become less productive, farmers will increase their shift to rangeland based
livestock production systems hence more pressure (Thornton. E et al 2006). More so, as this
happens there will be a greater shift towards breeds that are better adapted to rangeland
conditions hence increased rate of rangeland resource consumption (Easterling et al 2007). There
will also be an increase in livestock due to drought related stress and an increase in vector borne
diseases (Thornton. E et al 2006).
Increased water scarcity due to climate change will lead to stiff competition for the resource
resulting in escalation of water use conflicts (Mwiturubani. D and Vanwyk. J 2010). Water
scarcity leading to decreased productivity of agricultural lands will cause people to encroach into
forests and wetlands hence degrading them further (Mwiturubani. D and Vanwyk. J 2010). In
fragile states where the elites often organize themselves to have privileged access to resources,
they could be compelled to further tighten their grip on resources and also manipulate adaptation
funds for their own benefit in the face of reduced opportunities brought about by climate change
(Tanner. T and Allouche. J 2011). This marginalization of the poor communities may lead to
increased pressure on livelihoods and human security in the face of increasing wealth
accumulation among the elites in these times of visible economic and environmental crisis
(Tanner. T and Allouche. J 2011)
Climate change will affect human mobility and settlement through increased internal and cross
boarder migration in response to deterioration in weather events (United Nations women watch
n.d). The necessary frequent movement and resettlement will exacerbate biodiversity loss and
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degradation of ecosystems since it entails massive changes in land use and disturbance of the
environment (United Nations women watch n.d).
Climate change will have enormous human rights implications since it is a leading cause of
world hunger, malnutrition, exposure to diseases, water shortages, poor housing and loss of
livelihoods due to permanent displacements (United Nations women watch n.d). This translates
into abuse of economic and social rights of individuals (United Nations women watch n.d).
Climate change will have a direct severe impact on the livelihoods of coastal communities
(Council on Environmental Quality 2014). This will be through increased temperatures, rising
sea levels, shifts in strength and timing of ocean currents, increased severity of tropical storms
and higher ocean acidity (Council on Environmental Quality 2012). Increase in sea level rise due
to sea water expansion and glacial melting will affect coastal processes and increase coastal
erosion (Lavell. A et al 2013). Rising sea levels will also cause temporary and permanent
inundation of wetlands and saline intrusion into riverine and fresh water wetlands and ground
water supplies (Lavell. A et al 2013). The acidification of oceans will have a negative impact on
marine shell forming organisms and corals that are highly sensitive (Maitima. J et al 2009).
Temperature increases of 1-3 degrees centigrade will cause coral bleaching and widespread
mortality given their highly sensitive nature (Maitima. J et al 2009).
Mountain environments are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change with wide
ramifications to a wide array of human activities such as nature conservation, water
management, agriculture and tourism (Maitima. J et al 2009). There is a general trend of ice
retreat on mountains due to climate change which could reduce the area and volume of seasonal
snow, glacier and paraglacial belts with a corresponding shift in landscape processes and weather
patterns (Maitima. J et al 2009). The retreat of ice in some mountains such as Mt Kenya and Mt
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Kilimanjaro could have significant impacts on downstream ecosystems and communities because
of moderation of the seasonal flow of rivers upstream (Maitima. J et al 2009). This could also
reduce their scenic appeal hence negatively impacting tourism (Maitima. J et al 2009).
Local governments also through their role as key providers of services are highly vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change (Lavell. A et al 2013). This is due to the resultant impacts on the
capacity of service provision including infrastructure, health and emergency response provision
(Lavell. A et al 2013). This means climate change will affect the economic development of local
authorities as they brace themselves to deal with climate change impacts and as it negatively
affects their operations (Lavell. A et al 2013). Failure to consider climate change in their
planning will cause local governments at greater risks and liabilities (Lavell. A et al 2013).
Climate change will increase the areas suitable for disease vectors breeding thus increasing
vector borne diseases such as Malaria (Lavell. A et al 2013). Gastrointestinal ailments arising
from reduced water quality and accessibility will also increase (Lavell. A et al 2013). Heat stress
and a higher number of extreme heat days and warmer night time temperatures will negatively
affect the elderly and outdoor workers while an increase in the ultra violet rays potential may
also increase the risk of sunburns, eye and skin diseases (Lavell. A et al 2013). This will put
pressure on the existing health infrastructure (Lavell. A et al 2013).
The frequency and scale of humanitarian emergencies resulting from natural disasters has
increased and research suggests there may be more such disasters in future due to climate change
(Oloruntoba. R 2009). According to Pearce. T et al (2009), there is likely to be an increase in the
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and a proportional increase in the risks of
natural emergencies including cyclones, storms, droughts, heat waves, bush fires, and floods.
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Worldwide the threefold increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events between the 1960s
and 1990s was accompanied by a nine fold increase in damages (Esplin. B 2007).
3.0 THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international
environmental treaty (also known as a multilateral environmental agreement) that was opened for
signature at the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and came into force in 1994.
The ultimate objective of the Convention is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system." It
states that "such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“ 194 countries signed the UNFCCC
showing near universal agreement that there is a problem and that action is required against
climate change.
The treaty itself is not legally binding as it does not set mandatory limits on greenhouse gas
emissions for individual countries and doesn’t contain any enforcement mechanisms.
One of the initial tasks of the treaty was to establish national greenhouse gas inventories of
emissions and removals for industrialized countries. With a few exceptions, these were used as
the 1990 “base year” levels. Developing countries are also encouraged to produce inventories.
Developed countries must regularly submit greenhouse gas inventories to the UNFCCC.
Countries ratifying the treaty agree to take climate change into account in such matters as
agriculture, industry, energy, natural resources, and activities involving sea coasts. They agree to
develop national programmes to slow climate change.
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The Convention encourages all Parties to take action on two prongs. One of these is mitigation
which involves taking action to prevent and limit further climate change by developing,
gathering and sharing information on greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best
practices. Secondly we have adaptation which involves taking action to protect and adapt to the
impacts of climate change by launching national strategies including the provision of financial
and technological support to developing countries and cooperating in preparing for adaptation to
the climate change impacts.
The parties to the convention meet each year in the Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess
progress in dealing with climate change. The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the "supreme
body" of the Convention, that is, its highest decision-making authority. It is an association of all
the countries that are Parties to the Convention.
The COP is responsible for keeping international efforts to address climate change on track. It
reviews the implementation of the Convention and examines the commitments of Parties in light
of the Convention’s objective, new scientific findings and experience gained in implementing
climate change policies. A key task for the COP is to review the national communications and
emission inventories submitted by Parties. Based on this information, the COP assesses the
effects of the measures taken by Parties and the progress made in achieving the ultimate
objective of the Convention.
The COP meets every year, unless the Parties decide otherwise. The COP meets in Bonn, the
seat of the secretariat, unless a Party offers to host the session. Just as the COP Presidency
rotates among the five recognized UN regions - that is, Africa, Asia, Latin America and the
Caribbean, Central and Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Others – there is a tendency for
the venue of the COP to also shift among these groups.
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The Convention established two permanent subsidiary bodies: the Subsidiary Body for Scientific
and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). These
bodies give advice to the COP and each has a specific mandate. They are both open to
participation by any Party and governments often send representatives who are experts in the
fields of the respective bodies.
Firstly we have the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). The
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) was created to provide
UNFCCC's Conference of the Parties with advice on scientific, technological and
methodological matters. Two key areas are promoting the development and transfer of
environmentally-friendly technologies, and conducting technical work to improve the guidelines
for preparing national communications and emission inventories.
In addition, the SBSTA plays an important role as the link between the scientific information
provided by expert sources such as the IPCC on the one hand, and the policy-oriented needs of
the COP on the other. The SBSTA works closely with the IPCC, sometimes requesting specific
information or reports from it, and also collaborates with other relevant international
organizations that share the common objective of sustainable development.
Secondly we have the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). The SBI gives advice to the
COP on all matters concerning the implementation of the Convention. A particularly important
task in this respect is to examine the information in the national communications and emission
inventories submitted by Parties in order to assess the Convention’s overall effectiveness.
The SBI reviews the financial assistance given to developing country Parties to help them
implement their Convention commitments, and provides advice to the COP on guidance to the
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financial mechanism (operated by the Global Environment Facility. The SBI also advises the
COP on budgetary and administrative matters.
The SBSTA and SBI work together on cross-cutting issues that touch on both their areas of
expertise. These include capacity building, the vulnerability of developing countries to climate
change and response measures, and the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms.
The SBSTA and the SBI have traditionally met in parallel, at least twice a year. When they are
not meeting in conjunction with the COP, the subsidiary bodies usually convene at the seat of the
secretariat.
The Convention recognizes that it is a "framework" document - something to be amended or
augmented over time so that efforts to deal with global warming and climate change can be
focused and made more effective.
These amendments or additions include the Bali Action Plan. This was adopted by the thirteenth
session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 13) in Bali, December 2007. It is a two-year
process designed to finalize a binding agreement at the COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009. The Bali
Action Plan identifies five key building blocks required (shared vision, mitigation, adaptation,
technology and financial resources) for a strengthened future response to climate change and to
enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention, now, up to and
beyond 2012.
Then we have the Nairobi Work Programme. This was pursuant to the decision in 2004, in
Buenos Aires, where the UNFCCC Parties decided to elaborate a five-year work Programme
under the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). Details of the
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work programme were finalized in 2006 in Nairobi, where the programme was renamed the
Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.
The aim of the Nairobi work programme is to assist all Parties, in particular developing
countries, including the least developed countries and small island developing states, to: improve
their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; make informed
decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound
scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate
change and variability.
In 2001, the 7th COP of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
recognized that developing countries needed assistance in developing plans to address the
adverse effects of climate change. In particular, the COP decided that the Least Developed
Countries (LDCs) “should be assisted in preparing National Adaptation Programs of Action
(NAPAs) to address urgent and immediate needs and concerns related to adaptation to the
adverse effects of climate change.”
The National Adaptation Plans of Action are a means for LDCs to communicate and disseminate
their proposed programmes to address their adaptation needs. Support for priority activities
identified in the NAPA is available through the Global Environment Facility (GEF)'s Least
Developed Countries Fund.
4.0 ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE UNFCCC IN ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE
The UNFCCC has enabled a broader cooperation that may have positive implications for climate
change mitigation in future. With the largest membership of any multilateral treaty, the
UNFCCC has undoubtedly been very successful in securing near universal endorsement,
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channeling participation through a formalized and more transparent regime and negotiation
process. The fact that virtually the entire international community has become engaged in
multilateral process of deliberation affords the outcomes a unique legitimacy.
The UNFCCC has triggered comprehensive processes through which to address broader
questions of a future climate regime. Although parties have yet to agree on many aspects of the
United Nations climate regime. The United Nations negotiating under the UNFCCC has helped
raise the political profile of climate change and its mitigation. By now even heads of
governments are well aware of the importance of the issue and are getting involved in the
international negotiations.
Through it’s more than two decades of evolution the UNFCCC has been able to build up an
institutional memory, for example the vast documentation data base, and professional routines.
These would take years to develop through another setting or forum.
The UNFCCC differentiated institutional framework is unique in the domain of multilateral
environmental agreements and is still growing as exemplified by the Cancun agreements. While
the multiplicity of institutions is by no means a value in itself, it reflects the multifaceted nature
of the issue at hand along with the technical expertise that the United Nations system has been
able to establish.
The UNFCCC Kyoto protocol has led to the creation of a carbon market especially the clean
development mechanism. Such a market for mitigation would not have been possible without the
protocols quantified emissions limitation and reduction objectives and the comparatively
advanced compliance regime.
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Leaving aside the concerns about the environmental integrity of certain mitigation projects and
high transaction costs, the clean development mechanism regime has far exceeded the initial
expectations in terms of investments it has attracted. This has helped deploy climate friendly
technologies bringing about greater involvement by the private sector and identifying a number
of pathways for mitigation.
Capacity building efforts under the UNFCCC have contributed to disseminating knowledge
about the challenges of global warming and the possible solutions worldwide. By virtue of its
universal participation, institutional underpinnings and annual summits. The United Nations
climate regime under the UNFCCC has effectively launched the issue of climate change onto the
political agenda of all member of the international community.
The UNFCCC allows for contestation which give it an aspect of flexibility and dynamism. This
gives it the ability to adapt to changing situations and advances in scientific understanding a
salient requirement for any international environmental agreement. This also provides for an
avenue for open discussion of the agreement and often disputed scientific findings. The
UNFCCC model is thus a process of ongoing design and redesign rather a one stop shop
agreement. This creates adaptability and better interactions between contracting parties.
The UNFCCC also allows for participation and access to information. Increased participation
comes in form of allowing NGOs and IGOs attendance and participation in meetings. The
UNFCCC therefore promotes and enhances the active engagement of all stakeholders in its work
and processes. This is especially enabled through effective and open communication.
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The UNFCCC by allowing for the introduction of protocols to the convention through its
framework has led to a number of initiatives that are important in dealing with climate change.
These also enable its operationalization.
An example of such initiatives is the Global Environmental Facility. This facility serves as an
operating entity of the UNFCCC financial mechanism. GEF has been supporting the national
capacity self-assessment process at the national level among other functions. This is aimed at
providing countries with an opportunity to articulate their own capacity needs for implementing
the UNFCCC, other Rio conventions and even non Rio conventions such as those dealing with
chemical pollution. The UNFCC thus also provides an avenue for funding of mitigation and
adaptation activities at national, regional and global kevels.
The UNFCCC supports implementation of the technology transfer framework which assists
countries in their actions geared towards environmentally sound technologies. The UNFCCC
provides and maintains necessary conditions for effective and efficient implementation of the
climate change initiatives such as the Kyoto protocol. This include high quality support to
intergovernmental processes in the context of the convention and such initiatives.
5.0 SHORTCOMINGS OF THE UNFCCC IN ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE
The UNFCCC has failed to compel parties to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in accordance
with the recommendations set out by the scientific community. Even the very modest mitigations
set out in the Kyoto protocol were not achieved by all the developed they applied to. Parties such
as Canada simply ignored their emission reduction targets showing that even binding agreements
have their limitations when political will is absent.
22
Even though the convention marked an important step towards climate change cooperation. Its
practical effect has been described as a narrow, thin and even ultimately symbolic by critics. It
can therefore be stated with reasonable certainty that neither the UNFCCC nor its Kyoto protocol
is currently adequate in the ultimate objective of preventing dangerous interference with the
climate system.
The wide membership thus diversity has contributed to lack of success by the UNFCCC in
reaching adequate agreements for dealing with climate change. The wide diversity and breadth of
its institutional framework may also be adding to the sense of disorientation and overwhelming
complexity felt by many observers. This has become a stumbling block within the negotiations.
The other problem has been default requirement for consensus before an agreement is upheld.
This is a common stumbling block at the United Nations level at least on widely divergent
interests. The refusal by Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, Sudan and Venezuela to adopt the
Copenhagen accord for example led to the COP only taking note of it of which is a weaker
acknowledgement. Such objections to such states that are often rebellious to the United States
also shows the extent to which non-climate concerns act to derail the UNFCCC process. Another
problem is lack of political will.
Such problems have therefore tended to allow agreement only on sufficiently watered down
compromises. Although attempts have been at adopting a general majority ruling whereby
parties vote and adopt the decision backed by the majority. This has not gone through due to fear
that this would undermine the legitimacy of the outcomes arrived at.
The lack of a shared vision is another stumbling block of the UNFCCC. As long as countries
with such diverse positions as China, USA, India and Saudi Arabia assemble one table, finding a
23
common ground will continue to prove challenging. This underlies the importance of bridge
building which has been widely sought by the European Union.
The UNFCCC also lacks a rigid and unambiguous framework. This leads to a situation whereby
effective decision making relies on the generation of self-commitment to common rules and
guidelines by the national governments. Thus it is very easy for a party to agree to a rule or norm
in principle yet contest its meaning during implementation or practice.
The UNFCCC actually does not create a legal requirement for reduction of emissions. It
therefore seems to embody something that needs not to be taken seriously since there are no
consequences for noncompliance.
This shortcoming of the UNFCCC can be seen in its initiatives. An example is the Kyoto
protocol that was meant to operationalize the UNFCCC. This protocol allowed for easy
withdrawal and countries could fail to meet their obligation under it without any negative
consequences. The fact that the protocol excluded the developing countries from any
commitments was a weakness in itself since these countries continue to use dirty technologies
that only create leakages to any gains made. Excluding them also means they will continue these
technologies even their economies and populations grow. This is especially seen in China and
India that constitute one third of the global population and continue growing rapidly in terms of
industrial capacity yet are left completely unchecked in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions.
The economic cost of climate change mitigation initiatives under the UNFCCC are very high
compared to their immediate benefits. The costs of implementing them are too high whereas far
more urgent and important global priorities exist such as may be universal provision of clean
24
water among many others. The targets of these initiatives are also too little and too late compared
to what is actually required to achieve proper greenhouse gases stabilization in the atmosphere.
The climate change regime under the UNFCCC does not adequately address the sources of
finances needed to help developing countries cope with climate change. Although pledges have
been made e.g. in Copenhagen where nations pledged to give USD 100 Billion to deal with
climate change and in Cancun where there was a proposal to develop a climate Green fund.
Concrete funding streams to address climate change are yet to materialize. The amount of funds
disbursed for climate change initiatives both within and outside the UNFCCC actually represent
a minute proportion of what is required to address the issue.
Countries have also continued to disagree over the climate monitoring and financing stipulations
in climate change initiatives. Climate frameworks therefore continue struggling to effectively
monitor greenhouse gas outputs especially in developing countries. Many countries also lack the
domestic capacity to audit their total emissions and even if they are able to, many still fear that
reporting the true figures would encourage international pressure to cap their emissions.
Some countries like China also argue that an international monitoring system would be an
infringement on their national sovereignty. They also argue that developing states should be
afforded leniency in emissions as they are still in the critical stages of economic development.
There has also been a problem of some parties within the convention starting to form parallel
efforts. An example is the United State and others who have begun to turn to a la carte
multilateralism focusing on smaller less formal frameworks such as The Major Emitters Forum
and the Group of Twenty. The Major emitter’s forum has for instance provided an avenue for
25
major emitting countries to confront tricky issues and hammer out selfishly viable strategies
without entering the labyrinth of the United Nations diplomacy.
The negotiation process with the UNFCCC framework is also usually very slow. This is partly
because of the need for consensus. This leads to long processes of haggling before any
agreement s can be made. The agreement reached are therefore often late and inadequate to
adequate the huge challenge they are meant to address.
Overall the United Nations climate regime under the UNFCCC has not been able to deliver
outcomes of importance. It has not yet been able to prove its capacity to live up to the challenges
at hand with urgency of action and requisite level of ambition. The UNFCCC inability to
properly execute its obligations serves to dilute confidence in the United Nations as the single
most important forum for addressing climate change. This thus begs the answer on if more can
be expected from this climate change and if there are more convincing alternatives
6.0 CONCLUSION
Climate change worldwide continues to negatively affect ecological and socioeconomic systems.
The phenomena has many impacts including reduction in agricultural yields, water scarcity,
health problems and the resultant escalation of poverty levels. It has continued to negatively
affect ecological systems through interference with natural balances, shifting of ecological zones
and an increased threat of species extinction.
The UNFCCC is the United Nations framework charged with the role of stabilizing greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere to a level that will prevent human interference with the
climate system within a time frame sufficient enough to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
26
climate change hence ensuring the food production is not threatened and to allow economic
development continues in a sustainable manner.
The UNFCCC has succeeded in enabling broader cooperation, awareness and participation in
addressing the climate change issue. It has led to important initiatives such as creation of a
carbon market. It has also enabled wide dissemination of information on climate change and
created an avenue for financial and technological support in addressing the issue.
The UNFCCC however continues to have many shortcomings. The framework has not been able
to live up to its mandate of addressing climate change. The process of addressing climate change
has been marked by leggedness, wide disagreements and noncompliance. It has not been to
mobilize the adequate financial and legal requirements to address the climate change problems.
Many of its negotiation processes have failed to reach meaningful agreements while it initiatives
such as the Kyoto protocol have greatly failed to deliver. This therefore continue to beg for
answers to the questions as to if more can be expected from its regime or if an alternative is
needed.
REFERENCES
Bausch, C and Mehling, M 2011. Addressing the challenge of global climate mitigation; an
assessment of existing venues and institutions
Bond, E 2003. Climate change and the Kyoto protocol
Bond. W.J. and Midgley. G.F. 2000. A proposed CO2 controlled mechanism of woody plant
invasion in grasslands and savannahs. Global climate change biology. Vol. 6: 865-869
Ching. L.L.et al 2011. Climate change and food systems resilience in Sub Saharan Africa. FAO,
Rome, Italy.
27
CIFOR 2007, Tropical forest and climate change adaptation
Clarke, M 2008. “Venues for contestation” within the United Nations framework convention on
climate change. Comparative European politics. 2007(5): 18-35
Council of Environmental quality 2014. Revised draft guidance for greenhouse gas emissions
and climate change impacts
Council of foreign relations, 2013. The global climate change regime
DfID 2004, Climate change in Africa; key sheets on climate change and poverty
Easterling. W.E. et al 2007. Food, fibre and forest products, Cambridge University press,
Cambridge, UK.
ECOLAO 2012. Scoping assessment of climate change adaptation priorities in the Lao PDR.
Regional climate change adaptation knowledge platform for Asia, partner report series No. 6,
Stockholm environmental institute, Bangkok
Edgar A. and Carbonell. F. 2011. How to prepare ourselves for transculturation and uncertainty;
the challenge posed by Ng’obes in Costarica. IPMPCC
Esplin. B. 2007. Inquiry into the impact of public land management practices on bush fires in
Victoria, Melbourne
Harvard Kennendy School 2010. Institutions for international climate change governance; a
policy brief from Harvard project on climate agreements
Hein. A.I. 2006. Climate change in Africa
28
IAASTD 2009. Agriculture at a crossroads. International assessment of agricultural knowledge,
science and technology for development. Island press, Washington DC
IISD 2009. Introduction to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol. IISD
International Labour Organization 1989, Convention No. 169 concerning indigenous and tribal
peoples of independent countries
IPCC 2007. Climate change 2007 synthesis report; contributions of working group I, II and III to
the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, Geneva,
Switzerland.
Kirkland. E. 2012. Indigenous knowledge and climate change adaptation in the Peruvian Andes.
INTL: Political economy of the environment in Latin America
Lavell. A. et al 2012. Climate change; new dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability
and resilience. In: Managing risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change
adaptation (Field. C et al, eds), Cambridge University press, Cambridge, UK
Macchi. M. et al 2008. Indigenous and traditional peoples and climate change. Issue paper,
IUCN
Maitima. J et al 2009. Adapting East African ecosystems and productive systems to climate
change, East Africa
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005. Ecosystems and human wellbeing; current state and
trends, Island press
Mwiturabani. D.A. and Vanwyk. J. 2010. Climate change and natural resource conflicts in
Africa. ISS
29
Oloruntuba. R et al 2009. Cyclones in Bangladesh; a case study of a whole country response to
rapid onset disasters, Orlando, Florida
Parks. C.G. and Bernier. P. 2010. Adaptation of forests and forest management to changing
climate with emphasis on forest health’ a review of science, policies and practices. Forest
ecology management, Vol. 259: 657-659
Permesan. C and Yohe. G 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change across natural
systems. Nature. Vol. 421: 37-42
Rarieya. M and Fortun. K. 2009. Food security and seasonal climate information; Kenyan
challenges. Sustainable science, Vol 5: 99-114
Rietig, K 2012. International climate change challenges and opportunities. E-International
relations publishing
Rosegrant. M.W et al 2006. Food security, farming and climate change to 2050; scenarios,
results, policy options. IFPRI, Washington DC
Salick. J. and Bygs. A. 2007. Indigenous peoples and climate change, Tyndall centre
Sokolov et al 2009. Probabilistic forecast for 21st
century climate based on concentrations in
emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. Report No. 169, MIT
Thornton. E.P et al. Mapping climate vulnerability in Africa. Report to the department of
development, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya
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in a divided world. UNDP
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press, Cambridge, UK

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Climate change concept and effectiveness of unfccc

  • 1. 1 THE CONCEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN ADDRESSING THE ISSUE BY CAXTON GITONGA KAUA
  • 2. 2 THE CONCEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN ADDRESSING THE ISSUE 1.0 CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change is any change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity and that alters the composition of the global atmosphere (United Nations 1992). Climate change is caused by the increment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels and land use (United Nations 1992). This causes increased radiation of infrared rays back to the earth hence temperature increases through the greenhouse gas effect. Climate change leads to increments in the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and storms (IPPC 2007). These in turn constrain economic development (Rosegrant et al 2008) and decrease agricultural productivity (Easterling et al 2007) especially in developing countries due to existent multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity (1PCC 2007). 2.0 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Climate change worldwide is affecting biophysical and social systems (Maitima. J. et al 2009). The spatial extent and intensity of these effects vary geographically from one place to another depending on the location in the global atmospheric systems, regional settings, land cover, land use patterns, topography and weather patterns (Maitima. J. et al 2009). These effects have become a major concern for most countries of the world due to their longterm implications and adverse effects on development activities with developing and underdeveloped nations being the most affected (ECOLAO 2012) Indigenous people are most vulnerable to impacts of climate
  • 3. 3 change due to their high reliance on climate sensitive natural resources, inhabitation of fragile ecosystems and social, economic plus political marginalization (ECOLAO 2012). According to IPCC (2007) global warming is now unequivocal as it is already evident from observation of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levels. Global temperatures have risen by 1 degrees centigrade since 1850 while glaciers and ice sheets are melting across the globe as temperature records are shattered at alarming rates (Kirkland. E. 2012). The seas are rising and droughts, heat waves, floods and storms are becoming more intense and frequent (IPCC 2007). More so, IPCC (2007) observes that the global average surface temperature is likely to rise by 1.8 to 4 degrees centigrade by the year 2100 while the sea level rise may rise by 30 to 60 centimetre’s. These projected global mean temperature rises have even been revised upwards by some quarters to 2-7 degrees centigrade with an increase of 5 degrees centigrade seeming most likely given the current emission trajectories (Sokolov et al 2009). Climate variability will increase almost everywhere with Northern latitudes experiencing more rainfall and the subtropics experiencing less (IPCC 2007). According to Rarieya. M and Fortun. K (2009), climate change will reduce agricultural productivity by 10 to 20%. This will cause yield declines for the most important crops and additional prices for the world’s staple foods (Nelson et al 2009). Climate change will also lead to increase in the cost of agricultural production as farmers invest on more resources to counter its effects (Maitima. J. et al 2009). Farmers will also be forced to shift to other crop varieties or other areas that may be less favourable or even shift occupations by moving to towns to seek employment or engage in business of which they may be less qualified or conversant (Maitma. J. et al 2009).
  • 4. 4 According to Ching. L et al (2011) there will be 20% more nourished children in the world by the year 2050 due to the impacts of climate change. IAASTD (2009) observes that climate change coincident with increasing demand for food, pasture, fibre and fuel has the potential to irreversibly damage the resource base on which agriculture depends with significant negative consequences for food security. Climate will also constrain economic development in developing countries that rely largely on agriculture (Rotegrant et al 2008). According to IPCC (2007) projections, crops production could increase if local temperatures increased by 1 – 3 degrees centigrade depending on crop type for the mid and high latitudes but further warming would have increasingly negative impacts. However, for developing countries in lower latitudes especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions crop productivity is projected to decrease for even the slightest local temperature increases (IPCC 2007). Increases in extreme events such as floods and droughts will negatively affect crop production in the lower latitudes thus overcoming a positive effects possible with moderate temperature increases (Easterling et al 2007) The poor isolated rural communities in the global south, tropics and poles of which are disproportionately poor are the ones hit hardest (Kirkland. E. 2012). The impacts are also exacerbated by the degradation of existing ecosystems such that areas already facing deforestation, desertification and other environmental problems tend to suffer more from the effects of global warming (IPCC 2007). The impacts of climate change are magnified by socioeconomic problems because poor rural people have low awareness about climate change, live in poor housing conditions and have ill health which makes them more vulnerable (Kirkland. E. 2012). Their little financial capital and political influence make it difficult for them to invest in disaster preparedness or recover from one (Kirkland. E. 2012). This low adaptive capacity
  • 5. 5 therefore means climate change will widen and deepen the divide between the rich and the poor and erode the health and education advances for the very vulnerable (IPCC 2007) a situation that is already happening in Latin America (UNDP 2007). In the arctic region climate change has caused temperature increases that are twice the global average, decrease in sea ice extent and thickness and extreme weather event are now more frequent (Edgar. A and Carbonell. F. 2011). These changes have affected several aspects of Inuit food systems such as fishing and hunting which provide essential nutritional intake in their diet leading to health problems, food insecurity and other negative impacts (Edgar. A. and Carbonell. F 2011). According to IPCC (2007) climate change will further weaken the health status of millions of people especially those with low adaptive capacity. Health issues directly related to climate change include eye and skin damage, malnutrition, increased spatial distribution of vector borne diseases, increased water diseases due to scarcity and respiratory diseases (DfID 2004). According to WHO (2003) in the year 2000 climate change caused approximately 2.4% worldwide diarrhea and 6% malaria increase in some middle countries. A 2-3 degrees centigrade increase in temperature will cause a 3-5% increase in the incidents of malaria of which converts into several hundred millions cases (WH0 2003 (F1). Although today 790 million people already suffer from nutrition deficiency (DfID 2004). The situation will aggravate with climate change in low latitudes where food production will go down (IPCC 2007). Nutrition and food insecurity means effect on the health status of millions of people with further implication for child mortality and especially among those living in marginalized areas (DfID 2004).
  • 6. 6 The impending harsh climate change scenarios will negatively lead to breakdown of the reciprocity systems through which community groups help one another in times of crisis (Salick. J and Byg. A. 2007). These networks may disappear in future when some groups become far much more disadvantaged than others as to enable reciprocity (Salick. J and Byg. A 2007). Climate change will also lead to increased biophysical vulnerability hence more intensity of extreme weather events of which is already happening (Macchi. M et al 2008). It will also affect the availability of natural resources of which indigenous people are highly dependent hence increasing their vulnerability (Macchi. M et al 2008). Floods will on the other hand lead to contamination of drinking water hence hygiene related diseases (DfID 2004). This will put people and livestock at risk as they are forced to use these waters amidst acute scarcity (DfID 2004). Increase in droughts will cause increased incidence of desertification and bush and forest fires (Macchi. M et al 2007). Forest and bush fires potential increments will be due to increased fuel loads, increased fire length of dry seasons, reduction in number of days suitable for prescribed burns and reduced water availability for water suppression (Lavell. A et al 2013). There will thus be a reduction in the availability of firewood forcing people to take less cooked food hence diseases increase (Macchi. M et al 2008). Decrease in availability of firewood and water means an increase in the time needed to collect these resources of which will reduce the economic performance of those charged with the responsibility of collecting them (Macchi. M et al 2008) Droughts will have an impact on biodiversity hence a significant effect on indigenous livelihoods since they depend on it for food, medicine and other resources (IPCC 2007). This could thus rid them of their capacity to cope with diseases and of important food sources (Salick. J and Byg. A 2007). Land use and land cover change due to climate change will seriously increase indigenous
  • 7. 7 people vulnerability as it will force them into new circumstances and alter their traditional ecosystem management systems (Macchi et al 2008). In some instances this impacts will so high completely erasing their capacity to adapt and even loss of indigenous people’s traditional habitats and cultural heritage (Macchi et al 2008). Climate change will also result in altered phenology, shifts in distribution of biomes and increased extinctions considering the fact that many would not be able to adapt to the rapid rate of warming envisaged (Yohe. G et al 2007) Evidence of biodiversity ranges shifts have also been demonstrated by Kuuman (2004) who showed that among the 29 vascular plants he sampled there was an increase in altitudinal limits by about 165+/- 20 metre’s over the last 50 years (Yohe. G et al 2007). More so a meta-analysis conducted by Chen et al (2011) estimated that the distribution of species has recently been shifted to higher elevations at a medium rate of 11 metre’s per decade and to higher latitudes at a medium rate of 169 kilometres per decade. These rates are approximately two to three times faster than those of a previous similar meta-analysis by Permesan. C and Yohe. G (2003). These shifts will exacerbate existing threatening processes and alter species mix and composition (Lavell. A et al 2013). Climate change is expected to act as a disturbance event that will favour pest species (Lavell. A et al 2013). Some sleeper weeds will find the emergent environmental conditions more favourable while existing weed species will extend their range and colonize new areas (Lavell. A et al 2013). Climate change will favour invasive species by acting as disturbance events that will stress the existing species and create opportunities for more tolerant species that will replace the native ones (Lavell. A et al 2013). Such tolerant species could be pests and weeds that are highly tolerant and easily dispersible making them excellent opportunistic colonizers of disturbed areas
  • 8. 8 (Lavell. A et al 2013). Some of these weeds that now occur in small pockets or limited distributions may become much more prolific in their distribution and reproductive success as the habitat and climatic conditions become more favourable (Lavell. A et al 2013) Climate could also fundamentally alter the composition, structure and biogeography of forests in many regions of the world causing increases in tree mortality associated with climate induced physiological stresses and through interactions with other climate mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wild fires (Parks and Bernier 2007). Climate related changes will thus cause forest to lose their resilience and these could reach a threshold beyond which forests can no longer regain their previous states (Parks and Bernier 2010). Losing forests means losing the carbon sequestered in them thus contributing to escalation of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere (Lavell. A et al 2013). According to the Millennium ecosystem assessment (United Nations women watch n.d), climate change is likely to become the dominant driver of biodiversity loss by the end of the century. This will affect the social welfare and livelihoods of people in rural areas who are highly dependent on biodiversity by reducing access to it (United Nations women watch n.d). In addition to crippling their social welfare and livelihoods, biodiversity loss will also cripple access to security, resiliency, social relations, health and freedom of choices and actions of rural people (United Nations women watch n.d). Increased difficult in accessing resources sourced from biodiversity will mainly affect women and girls who are mainly tasked with the duty of collecting related resources hence denying them time to engage in productive activities, disempowerment and exposure to sexual abuse as they are forced to go further afield in search of these resources (United Nations women watch n.d).
  • 9. 9 Tropical forests ecosystems around the world, the major habitats for indigenous people, are highly vulnerable to climate change especially longterm changes in rainfall and temperature (CIFOR 2007). Climate change could lead to forest fires of which are already being witnessed and whose intensity is bound to increase in future (CIFOR 2007). This is even as deforestation around the world continues to increase at an alarming rate (CIFOR 2007). This will have serious adverse effects on indigenous people living in these forests since they are highly dependent on them such that most of them are already suffering given under the impacts of climate change (Macchi. M et al 2008). This is affecting their livelihoods with some of them being forced to move into semi sedentary lifestyles and become integrated into the market economy that is not in tandem with their livelihood situation thus increasing their vulnerability (Macchi. M et al 2008). Climate change will also affect the behavior of certain natural signals used in indigenous people’s early warning systems such as bird migration hence disorienting their lives (Macchi. M et al 2008). Forest based schemes for climate change mitigation could lead to indigenous people losing their land since they lack the capacity to defend their rights (Macchi. M et al 2008). These schemes may also entail denying indigenous people access to forests or even transfer forest benefits to other end while discriminating against indigenous people (Macchi. M et al 2008). In the drylands climate change will exacerbate the already water stressed conditions leading to severe droughts, malnutrition, water shortages and general increase in vulnerability of poor communities (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Water availability in drylands will decrease by 10 to 30% over the next 40 years due to climate change including extent of drought affected areas with floods becoming more frequent (IPCC 2007). This is in the backdrop of the fact that drylands constitute 40% of the worlds’ surface area and are resident to over 2 billion people majority of whom belong are the poorest people on earth
  • 10. 10 (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Most of these people are people who can be considered indigenous by ILO standards including pastoralists, hunters and gatherers and other traditional communities (International Labour Organization 1989). Being host to 32% of the global biodiversity hotspots, origins of 30% of the worlds cultivated plants and home to 40% of all the worlds cultivated crops, climate change impacts on drylands will have a serious negative effect (Macchi. M et al 2008). More so according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005), 10 to 20 % of drylands are already degraded and affecting the livelihoods of millions of people with desertification ranking as among the greatest environmental challenges in the world today (Macchi. M et al 2008). Rangelands quality and composition will be impacted due to interactions between temperature, rainfall and carbon dioxide composition with grazing and land cover (Maitima. J et al 2009). Increase in temperature for example will not only increase drought stress in plants but it will also increase lignification of their tissues hence affecting digestibility and nutrient composition (Thornton. E 2011). Increased temperature and reduced rainfall will also increase rangeland flammability resulting in a shift in species composition with increased fire frequency (Fischilin et al 2007). The timing and amount of rainfall on its own also has an influence on rangeland species composition in both the shortterm and longterm primarily through its differential effect on the growth and reproduction of key forage species (Maitima. J 2006). An extended drought can result in mortality of perennial plants and the switch to an annual dominated flora (Hein 2006). According to Bond. W. and Midgley. G. (2003) increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration could result to increased bush encroachment with reduced rangeland pasture productivity. This could occur due to the increased carbon dioxide concentration hence faster growth of saplings enabling them to escape the height at which fire
  • 11. 11 easily kills young trees and also due to the deeper rooted bushes being able to draw water from greater depths as compared to forage plants (Bond. W and Midgely. G 2000). As croplands become less productive, farmers will increase their shift to rangeland based livestock production systems hence more pressure (Thornton. E et al 2006). More so, as this happens there will be a greater shift towards breeds that are better adapted to rangeland conditions hence increased rate of rangeland resource consumption (Easterling et al 2007). There will also be an increase in livestock due to drought related stress and an increase in vector borne diseases (Thornton. E et al 2006). Increased water scarcity due to climate change will lead to stiff competition for the resource resulting in escalation of water use conflicts (Mwiturubani. D and Vanwyk. J 2010). Water scarcity leading to decreased productivity of agricultural lands will cause people to encroach into forests and wetlands hence degrading them further (Mwiturubani. D and Vanwyk. J 2010). In fragile states where the elites often organize themselves to have privileged access to resources, they could be compelled to further tighten their grip on resources and also manipulate adaptation funds for their own benefit in the face of reduced opportunities brought about by climate change (Tanner. T and Allouche. J 2011). This marginalization of the poor communities may lead to increased pressure on livelihoods and human security in the face of increasing wealth accumulation among the elites in these times of visible economic and environmental crisis (Tanner. T and Allouche. J 2011) Climate change will affect human mobility and settlement through increased internal and cross boarder migration in response to deterioration in weather events (United Nations women watch n.d). The necessary frequent movement and resettlement will exacerbate biodiversity loss and
  • 12. 12 degradation of ecosystems since it entails massive changes in land use and disturbance of the environment (United Nations women watch n.d). Climate change will have enormous human rights implications since it is a leading cause of world hunger, malnutrition, exposure to diseases, water shortages, poor housing and loss of livelihoods due to permanent displacements (United Nations women watch n.d). This translates into abuse of economic and social rights of individuals (United Nations women watch n.d). Climate change will have a direct severe impact on the livelihoods of coastal communities (Council on Environmental Quality 2014). This will be through increased temperatures, rising sea levels, shifts in strength and timing of ocean currents, increased severity of tropical storms and higher ocean acidity (Council on Environmental Quality 2012). Increase in sea level rise due to sea water expansion and glacial melting will affect coastal processes and increase coastal erosion (Lavell. A et al 2013). Rising sea levels will also cause temporary and permanent inundation of wetlands and saline intrusion into riverine and fresh water wetlands and ground water supplies (Lavell. A et al 2013). The acidification of oceans will have a negative impact on marine shell forming organisms and corals that are highly sensitive (Maitima. J et al 2009). Temperature increases of 1-3 degrees centigrade will cause coral bleaching and widespread mortality given their highly sensitive nature (Maitima. J et al 2009). Mountain environments are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change with wide ramifications to a wide array of human activities such as nature conservation, water management, agriculture and tourism (Maitima. J et al 2009). There is a general trend of ice retreat on mountains due to climate change which could reduce the area and volume of seasonal snow, glacier and paraglacial belts with a corresponding shift in landscape processes and weather patterns (Maitima. J et al 2009). The retreat of ice in some mountains such as Mt Kenya and Mt
  • 13. 13 Kilimanjaro could have significant impacts on downstream ecosystems and communities because of moderation of the seasonal flow of rivers upstream (Maitima. J et al 2009). This could also reduce their scenic appeal hence negatively impacting tourism (Maitima. J et al 2009). Local governments also through their role as key providers of services are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (Lavell. A et al 2013). This is due to the resultant impacts on the capacity of service provision including infrastructure, health and emergency response provision (Lavell. A et al 2013). This means climate change will affect the economic development of local authorities as they brace themselves to deal with climate change impacts and as it negatively affects their operations (Lavell. A et al 2013). Failure to consider climate change in their planning will cause local governments at greater risks and liabilities (Lavell. A et al 2013). Climate change will increase the areas suitable for disease vectors breeding thus increasing vector borne diseases such as Malaria (Lavell. A et al 2013). Gastrointestinal ailments arising from reduced water quality and accessibility will also increase (Lavell. A et al 2013). Heat stress and a higher number of extreme heat days and warmer night time temperatures will negatively affect the elderly and outdoor workers while an increase in the ultra violet rays potential may also increase the risk of sunburns, eye and skin diseases (Lavell. A et al 2013). This will put pressure on the existing health infrastructure (Lavell. A et al 2013). The frequency and scale of humanitarian emergencies resulting from natural disasters has increased and research suggests there may be more such disasters in future due to climate change (Oloruntoba. R 2009). According to Pearce. T et al (2009), there is likely to be an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and a proportional increase in the risks of natural emergencies including cyclones, storms, droughts, heat waves, bush fires, and floods.
  • 14. 14 Worldwide the threefold increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events between the 1960s and 1990s was accompanied by a nine fold increase in damages (Esplin. B 2007). 3.0 THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty (also known as a multilateral environmental agreement) that was opened for signature at the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and came into force in 1994. The ultimate objective of the Convention is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system." It states that "such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“ 194 countries signed the UNFCCC showing near universal agreement that there is a problem and that action is required against climate change. The treaty itself is not legally binding as it does not set mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual countries and doesn’t contain any enforcement mechanisms. One of the initial tasks of the treaty was to establish national greenhouse gas inventories of emissions and removals for industrialized countries. With a few exceptions, these were used as the 1990 “base year” levels. Developing countries are also encouraged to produce inventories. Developed countries must regularly submit greenhouse gas inventories to the UNFCCC. Countries ratifying the treaty agree to take climate change into account in such matters as agriculture, industry, energy, natural resources, and activities involving sea coasts. They agree to develop national programmes to slow climate change.
  • 15. 15 The Convention encourages all Parties to take action on two prongs. One of these is mitigation which involves taking action to prevent and limit further climate change by developing, gathering and sharing information on greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices. Secondly we have adaptation which involves taking action to protect and adapt to the impacts of climate change by launching national strategies including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries and cooperating in preparing for adaptation to the climate change impacts. The parties to the convention meet each year in the Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change. The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the "supreme body" of the Convention, that is, its highest decision-making authority. It is an association of all the countries that are Parties to the Convention. The COP is responsible for keeping international efforts to address climate change on track. It reviews the implementation of the Convention and examines the commitments of Parties in light of the Convention’s objective, new scientific findings and experience gained in implementing climate change policies. A key task for the COP is to review the national communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties. Based on this information, the COP assesses the effects of the measures taken by Parties and the progress made in achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention. The COP meets every year, unless the Parties decide otherwise. The COP meets in Bonn, the seat of the secretariat, unless a Party offers to host the session. Just as the COP Presidency rotates among the five recognized UN regions - that is, Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Central and Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Others – there is a tendency for the venue of the COP to also shift among these groups.
  • 16. 16 The Convention established two permanent subsidiary bodies: the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). These bodies give advice to the COP and each has a specific mandate. They are both open to participation by any Party and governments often send representatives who are experts in the fields of the respective bodies. Firstly we have the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) was created to provide UNFCCC's Conference of the Parties with advice on scientific, technological and methodological matters. Two key areas are promoting the development and transfer of environmentally-friendly technologies, and conducting technical work to improve the guidelines for preparing national communications and emission inventories. In addition, the SBSTA plays an important role as the link between the scientific information provided by expert sources such as the IPCC on the one hand, and the policy-oriented needs of the COP on the other. The SBSTA works closely with the IPCC, sometimes requesting specific information or reports from it, and also collaborates with other relevant international organizations that share the common objective of sustainable development. Secondly we have the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). The SBI gives advice to the COP on all matters concerning the implementation of the Convention. A particularly important task in this respect is to examine the information in the national communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties in order to assess the Convention’s overall effectiveness. The SBI reviews the financial assistance given to developing country Parties to help them implement their Convention commitments, and provides advice to the COP on guidance to the
  • 17. 17 financial mechanism (operated by the Global Environment Facility. The SBI also advises the COP on budgetary and administrative matters. The SBSTA and SBI work together on cross-cutting issues that touch on both their areas of expertise. These include capacity building, the vulnerability of developing countries to climate change and response measures, and the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms. The SBSTA and the SBI have traditionally met in parallel, at least twice a year. When they are not meeting in conjunction with the COP, the subsidiary bodies usually convene at the seat of the secretariat. The Convention recognizes that it is a "framework" document - something to be amended or augmented over time so that efforts to deal with global warming and climate change can be focused and made more effective. These amendments or additions include the Bali Action Plan. This was adopted by the thirteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 13) in Bali, December 2007. It is a two-year process designed to finalize a binding agreement at the COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009. The Bali Action Plan identifies five key building blocks required (shared vision, mitigation, adaptation, technology and financial resources) for a strengthened future response to climate change and to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention, now, up to and beyond 2012. Then we have the Nairobi Work Programme. This was pursuant to the decision in 2004, in Buenos Aires, where the UNFCCC Parties decided to elaborate a five-year work Programme under the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). Details of the
  • 18. 18 work programme were finalized in 2006 in Nairobi, where the programme was renamed the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. The aim of the Nairobi work programme is to assist all Parties, in particular developing countries, including the least developed countries and small island developing states, to: improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability. In 2001, the 7th COP of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognized that developing countries needed assistance in developing plans to address the adverse effects of climate change. In particular, the COP decided that the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) “should be assisted in preparing National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) to address urgent and immediate needs and concerns related to adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change.” The National Adaptation Plans of Action are a means for LDCs to communicate and disseminate their proposed programmes to address their adaptation needs. Support for priority activities identified in the NAPA is available through the Global Environment Facility (GEF)'s Least Developed Countries Fund. 4.0 ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE UNFCCC IN ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE The UNFCCC has enabled a broader cooperation that may have positive implications for climate change mitigation in future. With the largest membership of any multilateral treaty, the UNFCCC has undoubtedly been very successful in securing near universal endorsement,
  • 19. 19 channeling participation through a formalized and more transparent regime and negotiation process. The fact that virtually the entire international community has become engaged in multilateral process of deliberation affords the outcomes a unique legitimacy. The UNFCCC has triggered comprehensive processes through which to address broader questions of a future climate regime. Although parties have yet to agree on many aspects of the United Nations climate regime. The United Nations negotiating under the UNFCCC has helped raise the political profile of climate change and its mitigation. By now even heads of governments are well aware of the importance of the issue and are getting involved in the international negotiations. Through it’s more than two decades of evolution the UNFCCC has been able to build up an institutional memory, for example the vast documentation data base, and professional routines. These would take years to develop through another setting or forum. The UNFCCC differentiated institutional framework is unique in the domain of multilateral environmental agreements and is still growing as exemplified by the Cancun agreements. While the multiplicity of institutions is by no means a value in itself, it reflects the multifaceted nature of the issue at hand along with the technical expertise that the United Nations system has been able to establish. The UNFCCC Kyoto protocol has led to the creation of a carbon market especially the clean development mechanism. Such a market for mitigation would not have been possible without the protocols quantified emissions limitation and reduction objectives and the comparatively advanced compliance regime.
  • 20. 20 Leaving aside the concerns about the environmental integrity of certain mitigation projects and high transaction costs, the clean development mechanism regime has far exceeded the initial expectations in terms of investments it has attracted. This has helped deploy climate friendly technologies bringing about greater involvement by the private sector and identifying a number of pathways for mitigation. Capacity building efforts under the UNFCCC have contributed to disseminating knowledge about the challenges of global warming and the possible solutions worldwide. By virtue of its universal participation, institutional underpinnings and annual summits. The United Nations climate regime under the UNFCCC has effectively launched the issue of climate change onto the political agenda of all member of the international community. The UNFCCC allows for contestation which give it an aspect of flexibility and dynamism. This gives it the ability to adapt to changing situations and advances in scientific understanding a salient requirement for any international environmental agreement. This also provides for an avenue for open discussion of the agreement and often disputed scientific findings. The UNFCCC model is thus a process of ongoing design and redesign rather a one stop shop agreement. This creates adaptability and better interactions between contracting parties. The UNFCCC also allows for participation and access to information. Increased participation comes in form of allowing NGOs and IGOs attendance and participation in meetings. The UNFCCC therefore promotes and enhances the active engagement of all stakeholders in its work and processes. This is especially enabled through effective and open communication.
  • 21. 21 The UNFCCC by allowing for the introduction of protocols to the convention through its framework has led to a number of initiatives that are important in dealing with climate change. These also enable its operationalization. An example of such initiatives is the Global Environmental Facility. This facility serves as an operating entity of the UNFCCC financial mechanism. GEF has been supporting the national capacity self-assessment process at the national level among other functions. This is aimed at providing countries with an opportunity to articulate their own capacity needs for implementing the UNFCCC, other Rio conventions and even non Rio conventions such as those dealing with chemical pollution. The UNFCC thus also provides an avenue for funding of mitigation and adaptation activities at national, regional and global kevels. The UNFCCC supports implementation of the technology transfer framework which assists countries in their actions geared towards environmentally sound technologies. The UNFCCC provides and maintains necessary conditions for effective and efficient implementation of the climate change initiatives such as the Kyoto protocol. This include high quality support to intergovernmental processes in the context of the convention and such initiatives. 5.0 SHORTCOMINGS OF THE UNFCCC IN ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE The UNFCCC has failed to compel parties to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the recommendations set out by the scientific community. Even the very modest mitigations set out in the Kyoto protocol were not achieved by all the developed they applied to. Parties such as Canada simply ignored their emission reduction targets showing that even binding agreements have their limitations when political will is absent.
  • 22. 22 Even though the convention marked an important step towards climate change cooperation. Its practical effect has been described as a narrow, thin and even ultimately symbolic by critics. It can therefore be stated with reasonable certainty that neither the UNFCCC nor its Kyoto protocol is currently adequate in the ultimate objective of preventing dangerous interference with the climate system. The wide membership thus diversity has contributed to lack of success by the UNFCCC in reaching adequate agreements for dealing with climate change. The wide diversity and breadth of its institutional framework may also be adding to the sense of disorientation and overwhelming complexity felt by many observers. This has become a stumbling block within the negotiations. The other problem has been default requirement for consensus before an agreement is upheld. This is a common stumbling block at the United Nations level at least on widely divergent interests. The refusal by Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, Sudan and Venezuela to adopt the Copenhagen accord for example led to the COP only taking note of it of which is a weaker acknowledgement. Such objections to such states that are often rebellious to the United States also shows the extent to which non-climate concerns act to derail the UNFCCC process. Another problem is lack of political will. Such problems have therefore tended to allow agreement only on sufficiently watered down compromises. Although attempts have been at adopting a general majority ruling whereby parties vote and adopt the decision backed by the majority. This has not gone through due to fear that this would undermine the legitimacy of the outcomes arrived at. The lack of a shared vision is another stumbling block of the UNFCCC. As long as countries with such diverse positions as China, USA, India and Saudi Arabia assemble one table, finding a
  • 23. 23 common ground will continue to prove challenging. This underlies the importance of bridge building which has been widely sought by the European Union. The UNFCCC also lacks a rigid and unambiguous framework. This leads to a situation whereby effective decision making relies on the generation of self-commitment to common rules and guidelines by the national governments. Thus it is very easy for a party to agree to a rule or norm in principle yet contest its meaning during implementation or practice. The UNFCCC actually does not create a legal requirement for reduction of emissions. It therefore seems to embody something that needs not to be taken seriously since there are no consequences for noncompliance. This shortcoming of the UNFCCC can be seen in its initiatives. An example is the Kyoto protocol that was meant to operationalize the UNFCCC. This protocol allowed for easy withdrawal and countries could fail to meet their obligation under it without any negative consequences. The fact that the protocol excluded the developing countries from any commitments was a weakness in itself since these countries continue to use dirty technologies that only create leakages to any gains made. Excluding them also means they will continue these technologies even their economies and populations grow. This is especially seen in China and India that constitute one third of the global population and continue growing rapidly in terms of industrial capacity yet are left completely unchecked in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions. The economic cost of climate change mitigation initiatives under the UNFCCC are very high compared to their immediate benefits. The costs of implementing them are too high whereas far more urgent and important global priorities exist such as may be universal provision of clean
  • 24. 24 water among many others. The targets of these initiatives are also too little and too late compared to what is actually required to achieve proper greenhouse gases stabilization in the atmosphere. The climate change regime under the UNFCCC does not adequately address the sources of finances needed to help developing countries cope with climate change. Although pledges have been made e.g. in Copenhagen where nations pledged to give USD 100 Billion to deal with climate change and in Cancun where there was a proposal to develop a climate Green fund. Concrete funding streams to address climate change are yet to materialize. The amount of funds disbursed for climate change initiatives both within and outside the UNFCCC actually represent a minute proportion of what is required to address the issue. Countries have also continued to disagree over the climate monitoring and financing stipulations in climate change initiatives. Climate frameworks therefore continue struggling to effectively monitor greenhouse gas outputs especially in developing countries. Many countries also lack the domestic capacity to audit their total emissions and even if they are able to, many still fear that reporting the true figures would encourage international pressure to cap their emissions. Some countries like China also argue that an international monitoring system would be an infringement on their national sovereignty. They also argue that developing states should be afforded leniency in emissions as they are still in the critical stages of economic development. There has also been a problem of some parties within the convention starting to form parallel efforts. An example is the United State and others who have begun to turn to a la carte multilateralism focusing on smaller less formal frameworks such as The Major Emitters Forum and the Group of Twenty. The Major emitter’s forum has for instance provided an avenue for
  • 25. 25 major emitting countries to confront tricky issues and hammer out selfishly viable strategies without entering the labyrinth of the United Nations diplomacy. The negotiation process with the UNFCCC framework is also usually very slow. This is partly because of the need for consensus. This leads to long processes of haggling before any agreement s can be made. The agreement reached are therefore often late and inadequate to adequate the huge challenge they are meant to address. Overall the United Nations climate regime under the UNFCCC has not been able to deliver outcomes of importance. It has not yet been able to prove its capacity to live up to the challenges at hand with urgency of action and requisite level of ambition. The UNFCCC inability to properly execute its obligations serves to dilute confidence in the United Nations as the single most important forum for addressing climate change. This thus begs the answer on if more can be expected from this climate change and if there are more convincing alternatives 6.0 CONCLUSION Climate change worldwide continues to negatively affect ecological and socioeconomic systems. The phenomena has many impacts including reduction in agricultural yields, water scarcity, health problems and the resultant escalation of poverty levels. It has continued to negatively affect ecological systems through interference with natural balances, shifting of ecological zones and an increased threat of species extinction. The UNFCCC is the United Nations framework charged with the role of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to a level that will prevent human interference with the climate system within a time frame sufficient enough to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
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