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Deterrence
Deterrence aims to persuade opponents not to initiate action through psychological threats rather than physical involvement. It involves restricting actions, promising punishment, and threatening retaliation to deter attacks. Key thinkers on deterrence include Bernard Brodie, Henry Kissinger, and Thomas Schelling. For deterrence to succeed, it requires communication of capabilities and credibility of retaliation. Types of deterrence include active/extended deterrence involving direct threats and passive deterrence relying on enemy perceptions. Massive retaliation and flexible response were Cold War deterrence doctrines that struggled with credibility.
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Deterrence
- 1. DETERRENCE Presented By Sheikh AbirAhmed BIR-16 Sec:B
- 3. Deterrence • Don’t dothis ( Restriction) • Punishment & Pay the Cost • Giving threat to other not to attack me, if they do so then they would be punished • Aims to persuade the opponent not to initiate action • A psychological phenomena • No physical involvement rather psychological threat
- 4. RAM • Rational ActorModel • People are rational • complex concept with different meanings to different people • Everyone is rational on their on way of thinking
- 5. Some Key thinkers •Bernard Brodie • Henry Kissinger • Thomas Schelling • Herman Kahn • Albert Wohlstetter
- 6. Prerequisite of SuccessfulDeterrence Communication CapabilityCredibility
- 7. Types of Deterrence Activeor Extended Deterrence Passive Deterrence
- 8.
- 9. Triad If 2 deliverysystem damaged, one will be still there to destroy 1. Strategic Air Command 2. ICBM 3. SLBM
- 10. Some Other Launchingsystem • SRBM • MRBM • IRBM • ABM
- 12. Success or Failureof Deterrence?
- 13. Massive retaliation • Allor nothing but a strategy • Used threat to nuke for the 1st time • Taken by EisenHower administration • this speech delivered by John Foster Dulles • Here also Crediblity missing
- 14. Doctrine of FlexibleResponse(DFR) • U.S defense strategy • Taken by JFK adminstration • The term ‘flexible response’ first appeared in U.S. General Maxwell D. Taylor’s book The Uncertain Trumpet (1960) • Alternative to President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s New Look national security policy • Intra war deterrence introduced • Tactical nuclear weapon can be used in time of war • For further reading http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/history/cold- war/strategy/strategy-flexible-response.htm
- 15. Cont. • Emerge newterm. “ Mutual Vulnerability” • Signed ABM treaty in 1960s • Mutual Assured Destruction(MAD) • Failed. As it also couldn’t ensure Credibility
- 16. Cont. • Robert McNamar’sidea : attack USSR & killed 30% civilian, destroy 75% industrial capability it also failed because of the lack of Credibility • James R. Schlesinger: Sclesinger’s Doctrine (NSDM-242) oCounter value targeting oCounter force targeting This idea was Credible.
- 17. Cont. • “Counter VailingStrategy” by Harold Brown • Also known as Decapitation • Means assassination of the leader of opponent.
- 18. For more aboutthis topic • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zui89Uag1xw • http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear- weapons/history/cold-war/strategy/strategy- massive%20retaliation.htm • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgYI50PLVm8