Actors, Structures and Foreign Policy Analysis
International Ataturk Alatoo University, Department of International Relations, Political Science, Foreign Policy Analysis, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, IAAU,Международный Ататюрк Алатоо университет, факультет международных отношений, политологии, анализ внешней политики, Центральной Азии, Кыргызстан, Бишкек
The prime objective of a state is to improve the quality of life of its citizens. For this, the state formulates a comprehensive set of interdependent policies.
Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilizing the foreign relations of a country
Multiple constants & variables determine the foreign policy of a country; This presentation attempts to explain those determinants
Its word version is available on my website mentioned above. You will find many other articles and presentations there
Actors, Structures and Foreign Policy Analysis
International Ataturk Alatoo University, Department of International Relations, Political Science, Foreign Policy Analysis, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, IAAU,Международный Ататюрк Алатоо университет, факультет международных отношений, политологии, анализ внешней политики, Центральной Азии, Кыргызстан, Бишкек
The prime objective of a state is to improve the quality of life of its citizens. For this, the state formulates a comprehensive set of interdependent policies.
Foreign policy is one such policy formulated to achieve the above objectives by utilizing the foreign relations of a country
Multiple constants & variables determine the foreign policy of a country; This presentation attempts to explain those determinants
Its word version is available on my website mentioned above. You will find many other articles and presentations there
Approaches to International Relations
Approach is a way of looking at and then explaining a particular phenomenon. The perspective may be broad enough to cover a vast area like the World as a whole or it may be very small, embracing an aspect of local, regional, national or international politics. Besides, it may cover within its fold every other thing related to the collection and selection of evidence followed by an investigation and analysis of a particular hypothesis for an academic purpose. In this way, an approach consists of a criterion of selection criteria employed in selecting the problems or questions to consider and in selecting the data to bring to bear. It consists of standards governing the inclusion and exclusion of questions and data.
An approach is distinguishable from a theory. An approach is closely related to a theory in view of the fact that it’s a very character determines the way of generalization, explanation and prediction. An approach is transformed into a theory if and when its function extends beyond the selection of problems and data about the subject under study. There are several distinct approaches to the study of International Relations, these include:
Traditional Approach
Scientific Approach
Behavioral Approach
Post Behaviouralist Approaches
Systems Approach
Traditional Approach
In view of the complex variables influencing behavior of states, the traditionalists focus on the observed behavior of governments. They explain observable government behavior on the basis of concepts like balance of power, national interest, diplomacy etc. Traditional realists try to understand and resolve the clashing of interests that inevitably leads to war. This is an approach to international relations that emphasizes the studying of such disciplines as diplomatic history, international law, and philosophy in an attempt to develop better insights.
Traditionalists tend to be skeptical of behaviouralist approaches that are confined to strict scientific standards that include formal hypothesis testing and, usually, the use of statistical analysis. Traditional theorists regard international relations as a sub-discipline of history and political science. There are historical, philosophical and legal variants to the traditional approach Continued ..........
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The history and evolution of foreign policy analysis
1. The history and evolution of
foreign policy analysis
Dr. Ibrahim Koncak
International Ataturk Alatoo
University
2. Key definitions
• Foreign policy: the strategy or approach chosen by the
national government to achieve its goals on its
relations with external entities. This includes decisions
to do nothing.
• Foreign policy behavior: the observable artifacts of
foreign policy-specific actions and words used to
influence others in the realm of foreign policy.
• Foreign policy analysis: the subfield of international
relations that seeks to explain foreign policy, or,
alternatively, foreign policy behavior, with reference to
the theoretical ground of human decision makers,
acting singly and in groups
3. Key definitions
• Actor- general theory: theory that explains the
behavior of actors in general, such as game
theory.
• Game theory is the study of strategic decision
making. Specifically, it is "the study of
mathematical models of conflict and cooperation
between intelligent rational decision-makers".
• Actor specific theory: theory that explains the
behavior of specific actors, such as FPA theory. A
form of middle-range theory.
4. Key definitions
• FPDM: Foreign Policy Decision Making
• Middle-Range Theory: Theory that mediated
between grand principles and the complexity
of reality.(James Rosenau)
• Psycho-milieu: psycho-milieu is the
international and operational environment or
context as it is perceived and interpreted by
these decision makers.
•
5. Key definitions
• Operational code: identifying the core political
beliefs of the leader about the inevitability of
conflict in the world. The leader’s estimation
of his or her own power to change events, as
well as an exploration of the preferred means
and style of pursuing goals.
• National Role Conception:
6. Three paradigmatic works of FPA
• Richard Snider: contributed a focus on the decision-
making process itself as part of the explanation, rather
then just foreign policy outputs.
• James Rosenau: development of actor-specific theory
that would lead to the development of generalizable
propositions at the level of middle-range theory.
• Harold and Margaret Sprout: foreign policy can only be
explained with reference to the psycho-milieu (the
psychological, situational, political and social context)
of the individuals involved in decision making.
7. The First Generation of work in FPA
(1954-1973)
• Contributions:
– Conceptualization
– Data Collection
– Methodological experimentation
The second generation of work from about 1974 to
1993 expressly built upon those foundations.
8. Primary Levels of Analysis in FPA
• Cognitive processes: Cognition, learning,
heuristic fallacies, emotion etc.
• Leader personality and orientation: Operational
codes, motivations, psychobiography
• Small-group dynamics: Groupthink, newgroup,
coalitions etc.
• Interface of leader personality with small-group
composition
• Organization Process: Incremental learning, standard
operating procedures, implementation issues, etc.
9. Primary Levels of Analysis in FPA
• Bureaucratic politics: Turf, morale, budget, influence,
inter-agency group politics, etc.
• Culture and foreign policy: Identity and nationalism,
heroic histories, role theory etc.
• Domestic political contestation: Regime type, media,
political interest groups, organized party contestation
and electoral politics, etc.
• National attributes and foreign policy: Geography,
resources, economic factors, etc.
• System effects on foreign policy: Anarchy, distribution
of power, regional balances of power, etc.
10. The Second Generation
• Small-group decision making
• Organizational process and bureaucratic
politics
• Comparative foreign policy (CPF)
• Psychological influences on foreign policy
decision making
• Societal Milieux
11. Events Data Projects
DDIR: Data Development for International
Research
• WEIS: The world event/ Interaction Survey
• COP-DAB: The conflict and Peace Data Bank
• CREON: Comparative Research on the Events
of Nations
• KEDS: The Kansas Event Data System
12. Problems to conduct FPA analysis
• More information is needed for high quality
analysis but because of security considerations in
foreign policy such information is not usually
available.
• The information is old (20 or 30 years old).
• A hard-science like grant theory was/is
impossible.
• Too much/detailed information to construct a
theory.
• CFPers wanted to be behavior lists, criticize
traditionalists.
13. Problems to conduct FPA analysis
• To quantify or not to quantify? What about
non-quantifiables such as perception,
memory, emotion, culture, history, etc.
• Solution: not grand theory but middle-range
theory. To success partially is not to fail
completely…
14. Contemporary FPA’s research agenda
• The formulation of a problem is often more
essential than its solution which may be
merely a matter of one fourth skill.
• Individual level: How a leader’s personality
affects foreign policy?
• Group level: how problems are actually
organized by the group? How are situation
‘framed’ and ‘represented’? etc.
15. Contemporary FPA’s research agenda
• Society and political competition level:
Whether we can uncover the societal sources
of change in shared perceptions.
• Does type of political system impact on
foreign policy?
• What is the effect of systemic change on
foreign policy? etc.
16. Methodological questions
• Can events data be re-conceptualized to be of
use to contemporary FPA? Etc.
• An Atlantic divide:
• FPA or AFP (the analysis of foreign policy?)
• Use of quantitative methods
• Historical process-tracing
• Use of American cases
•
17. Key points
• FPA- theoratical ground – human decision
makers
• Three paradigmatic works-
– Decision making-Snyder
– Comparative foreign policy-Rosenau
– Psycho-social milieu of foreign policy decision
making
18. Questions
• What are the key hallmarks of FPA?
• What’s the difference between foreign policy
and foreign policy behavior?
• What are the primary levels of analysis
examined in FPA?
What did Snyder/Rosenau /Sprouts contribute
to the FPA’s foundation?
• What’s events data and how is it used in FPA?
• What’s comparative foreign policy?