The document discusses the history and evolution of foreign policy analysis (FPA), defining key concepts such as foreign policy, foreign policy behavior, and the various theoretical frameworks that underpin FPA. It reviews contributions from foundational theorists and outlines primary levels of analysis, including cognitive processes, leadership dynamics, and bureaucratic politics. Additionally, the challenges and methodologies of conducting FPA research are highlighted, along with contemporary research agendas.

1. The history and evolution of
foreign policy analysis
Dr. Ibrahim Koncak
International Ataturk Alatoo
University

2. Key definitions
• Foreign policy: the strategy or approach chosen by the
national government to achieve its goals on its
relations with external entities. This includes decisions
to do nothing.
• Foreign policy behavior: the observable artifacts of
foreign policy-specific actions and words used to
influence others in the realm of foreign policy.
• Foreign policy analysis: the subfield of international
relations that seeks to explain foreign policy, or,
alternatively, foreign policy behavior, with reference to
the theoretical ground of human decision makers,
acting singly and in groups

3. Key definitions
• Actor- general theory: theory that explains the
behavior of actors in general, such as game
theory.
• Game theory is the study of strategic decision
making. Specifically, it is "the study of
mathematical models of conflict and cooperation
between intelligent rational decision-makers".
• Actor specific theory: theory that explains the
behavior of specific actors, such as FPA theory. A
form of middle-range theory.

4. Key definitions
• FPDM: Foreign Policy Decision Making
• Middle-Range Theory: Theory that mediated
between grand principles and the complexity
of reality.(James Rosenau)
• Psycho-milieu: psycho-milieu is the
international and operational environment or
context as it is perceived and interpreted by
these decision makers.
•

5. Key definitions
• Operational code: identifying the core political
beliefs of the leader about the inevitability of
conflict in the world. The leader’s estimation
of his or her own power to change events, as
well as an exploration of the preferred means
and style of pursuing goals.
• National Role Conception:

6. Three paradigmatic works of FPA
• Richard Snider: contributed a focus on the decision-
making process itself as part of the explanation, rather
then just foreign policy outputs.
• James Rosenau: development of actor-specific theory
that would lead to the development of generalizable
propositions at the level of middle-range theory.
• Harold and Margaret Sprout: foreign policy can only be
explained with reference to the psycho-milieu (the
psychological, situational, political and social context)
of the individuals involved in decision making.

7. The First Generation of work in FPA
(1954-1973)
• Contributions:
– Conceptualization
– Data Collection
– Methodological experimentation
The second generation of work from about 1974 to
1993 expressly built upon those foundations.

8. Primary Levels of Analysis in FPA
• Cognitive processes: Cognition, learning,
heuristic fallacies, emotion etc.
• Leader personality and orientation: Operational
codes, motivations, psychobiography
• Small-group dynamics: Groupthink, newgroup,
coalitions etc.
• Interface of leader personality with small-group
composition
• Organization Process: Incremental learning, standard
operating procedures, implementation issues, etc.

9. Primary Levels of Analysis in FPA
• Bureaucratic politics: Turf, morale, budget, influence,
inter-agency group politics, etc.
• Culture and foreign policy: Identity and nationalism,
heroic histories, role theory etc.
• Domestic political contestation: Regime type, media,
political interest groups, organized party contestation
and electoral politics, etc.
• National attributes and foreign policy: Geography,
resources, economic factors, etc.
• System effects on foreign policy: Anarchy, distribution
of power, regional balances of power, etc.

10. The Second Generation
• Small-group decision making
• Organizational process and bureaucratic
politics
• Comparative foreign policy (CPF)
• Psychological influences on foreign policy
decision making
• Societal Milieux

11. Events Data Projects
DDIR: Data Development for International
Research
• WEIS: The world event/ Interaction Survey
• COP-DAB: The conflict and Peace Data Bank
• CREON: Comparative Research on the Events
of Nations
• KEDS: The Kansas Event Data System

12. Problems to conduct FPA analysis
• More information is needed for high quality
analysis but because of security considerations in
foreign policy such information is not usually
available.
• The information is old (20 or 30 years old).
• A hard-science like grant theory was/is
impossible.
• Too much/detailed information to construct a
theory.
• CFPers wanted to be behavior lists, criticize
traditionalists.

13. Problems to conduct FPA analysis
• To quantify or not to quantify? What about
non-quantifiables such as perception,
memory, emotion, culture, history, etc.
• Solution: not grand theory but middle-range
theory. To success partially is not to fail
completely…

14. Contemporary FPA’s research agenda
• The formulation of a problem is often more
essential than its solution which may be
merely a matter of one fourth skill.
• Individual level: How a leader’s personality
affects foreign policy?
• Group level: how problems are actually
organized by the group? How are situation
‘framed’ and ‘represented’? etc.

15. Contemporary FPA’s research agenda
• Society and political competition level:
Whether we can uncover the societal sources
of change in shared perceptions.
• Does type of political system impact on
foreign policy?
• What is the effect of systemic change on
foreign policy? etc.

16. Methodological questions
• Can events data be re-conceptualized to be of
use to contemporary FPA? Etc.
• An Atlantic divide:
• FPA or AFP (the analysis of foreign policy?)
• Use of quantitative methods
• Historical process-tracing
• Use of American cases
•

17. Key points
• FPA- theoratical ground – human decision
makers
• Three paradigmatic works-
– Decision making-Snyder
– Comparative foreign policy-Rosenau
– Psycho-social milieu of foreign policy decision
making

18. Questions
• What are the key hallmarks of FPA?
• What’s the difference between foreign policy
and foreign policy behavior?
• What are the primary levels of analysis
examined in FPA?
What did Snyder/Rosenau /Sprouts contribute
to the FPA’s foundation?
• What’s events data and how is it used in FPA?
• What’s comparative foreign policy?

19. Further Reading
• www.oxfordtextbooks.co.uk/orc/smith_foreig
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