1) The document discusses various strategies and theories related to deterring terrorism and non-state actors, including flexible response, pre-modern doctrines of deterrence, and imposing direct costs on terrorist organizations and states that support them.
2) It provides examples of stand-off weapons like air-to-surface missiles that could impose such costs from a distance while minimizing collateral damage.
3) The document argues that retaliation against non-state actors must be swift, proportionate, and focus on the organization rather than civilians in order to impact domestic morale and force supporting states to restrain terrorists.
Defence of Thesis on Suicide Terrorism: Threat And Responsemohandezoysa
•This ‘exploratory’ research study will attempt to contribute new knowledge to expand the educational theory and/or practice, as to how to identify the suicide terrorist threat, and how to respond to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide terrorist before he or she reaches the target. As such the objectives of this research study will focus specifically on;
–Identifying the threat of suicide terrorist
–Formulating a strategy, to respond to / counter suicide terrorism
Defence of Thesis on Suicide Terrorism: Threat And Responsemohandezoysa
•This ‘exploratory’ research study will attempt to contribute new knowledge to expand the educational theory and/or practice, as to how to identify the suicide terrorist threat, and how to respond to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide terrorist before he or she reaches the target. As such the objectives of this research study will focus specifically on;
–Identifying the threat of suicide terrorist
–Formulating a strategy, to respond to / counter suicide terrorism
Since the year 1982, the phenomenon of suicide terrorist attacks has spread all over the world and many countries have found themselves suffering the effects of this growing terrorist ‘modus operandi’
The suicide terrorist is no more than a platform that carries the explosive charge to its target. However, this platform can think, adapt to situational changes and act at the right time and the right place to detonate the explosive device so as to create maximum carnage and destruction in a spectacular manner; it is the ultimate precision guided smart human bomb
Terrorism has become a global phenomenon with a 61% increase in the number of people killed in terrorist attacks over the last year. The 2014 Global Terrorism Index provides a fact-based understanding of terrorism and its impact.
There is an urgent need for world community to fight terrorism together. There can not be good terrorist and bad terrorist A terrorist is a terrorist
Since the year 1982, the phenomenon of suicide terrorist attacks has spread all over the world and many countries have found themselves suffering the effects of this growing terrorist ‘modus operandi’
The suicide terrorist is no more than a platform that carries the explosive charge to its target. However, this platform can think, adapt to situational changes and act at the right time and the right place to detonate the explosive device so as to create maximum carnage and destruction in a spectacular manner; it is the ultimate precision guided smart human bomb
Terrorism has become a global phenomenon with a 61% increase in the number of people killed in terrorist attacks over the last year. The 2014 Global Terrorism Index provides a fact-based understanding of terrorism and its impact.
There is an urgent need for world community to fight terrorism together. There can not be good terrorist and bad terrorist A terrorist is a terrorist
Mohan Guruswamy's presentation at a recent seminar on how to respond to another state sponsored terrorist attack from Pakistan. A tit for tat reaction may not dissuade Pakistan from more of it, but the GOI owes it to the Indian public to get satisfaction. Turning the other cheek is not policy.
MEET INDIA - Paris presentation -Mohan Guruswamyavidas
Modern India now has over 2000 ethnic groups. Modern Indian languages have evolved from all the world’s four language families. Indo-European, Dravidian, Austro-Asiatic and Tibeto-Burman. India has 1652 individual mother tongues. 30 languages are spoken by over a million each, and 122 by over 10,000 each.
India has almost 1.2 billion people, and the Union of India consists of 32 States and Union Territories. The biggest of these is Uttar Pradesh with a population of 199.6 million or 16.49% of India’s. It is as big as Brazil. The smallest political unit is Lakshadweep which has just 64,000 (0.01%)
In late 2012 India became the world’s third largest economy in PPP terms and has grown at an average rate of over 7.4% during 2004-14 and GDP from about $750 bn to $2 trl. Between 2008-11 it grew at more than 9%. In consonance with global trends India’s growth also has tapered off these past two years.
Clearly it’s a country of great heterogeneity, complexity and promise. Its diversity makes it unsuitable for any other form of government but a very raucous DEMOCRACY.
Sino-Indian Relations and the Elephant in the Roomavidas
India and China exist in different orbits of the world economy. A slowed down China now growing at 7% still adds $490 billion to global growth, while a speeded up India, now growing at 7%, adds a mere $160 billion.
Even when the rate of Indian growth exceeds China’s by a big margin, it will be a long time before it adds more to global growth than China. Although the Chinese economy does not compete directly with India’s, the effect the former imposes on the global economy will influence the Indian economy.
Hence, whether a slowing Chinese economy will really create more opportunities for the Indian economy needs rethinking.
THIS IS A TRANSCRIPT OF A TALK GIVEN AT A CONFERENCE ON CENTRAL ASIA AT JAMIA MILLIA SPONSORED BY THE MEA.
Is India going to be the new China? If I had to terminate this discussion I would say no because the gap is huge and open now. It might be very difficult because the kind of political consensus in the last few years that we have and the way we conduct our internal affairs and manage our economy. China is the world’s largest GDP now in terms of PPP terms. It is almost 19 trillion dollars which is astounding. If you project this to 2050 you would be looking at over 60 trillion and an Indian GDP would be 45 trillion.
We are entering a period of exponential growth. It is another thing that wealth does not get distributed in China and India. It is concentrated in a few hands. China has slowed down and I will discuss it later. It has posted per Capita GDP of almost below 8000. This is India here. 8 trillion dollars in PPP terms. That is where a little controversy when PM Modi suddenly started quoting PPP figures. It always sounds much bigger then the normal GDP which is. In GDP terms we are now third in terms of PPP just below USA. China is first. This is how we strike up in the world. China is almost three times our size and United States and this how the world is going to transit.
This is what excites people, excites people who are looking for investment opportunities in India, excites people like me who are not going to be around 2050 to see if we have made the tryst to destiny. What is being projected is our GDP of 3.7 billion of 2009 will move on to 43 trillion in 2050. US becomes smaller than India. The complete ranking in the world will change. If you look at United Kingdom it will be no. 10, Italy will be no. 15, Saudi Arabia 19, Russia is no. 6. The top two countries will be Asian countries. This is the projected growth on the other side. Vietnam will be no. 1, India will be no. 2, Nigeria will be no. 3. It is all unbelievable.
When I was doing my dissertation in 1984 I had proposed to my supervisor that I would do my work on future projection on economies. Lotus had just introduced spreadsheets and you could put in numbers and have different growth rates and come out with astounding figures. One day I was playing around in the computation lab in the Kennedy School of government at Harvard and I was putting in the figures in the computer. I was getting astounding results for 25 years, 30 years, 50 years. Some of it looked like real at that time. So when I proposed it to my supervisor who was a famous economist, he asked me not to do this and do something practical. You think India and China will actually reach the top , dominating the world and making the big noise? Forget it.... it is not going to happen or going to happen in my lifetime. So I did my dissertation on the Presidential decision making which is a totally different subject. I wish I had done it then. I would have been a famous man....
Clearly global warning is inevitable and hence water problems in the sub-continent will get further exacerbated.
We can only hope to mitigate effects by early and meaningful co-operation.
We suffer from a knowledge deficit about the state of the glaciers and on changing monsoon patterns.
We know even less about our groundwater resources. Aquifers have no borders.
What can be done together?
India’s Adivasi problem at Claws - Presentation by Mohan Guruswamyavidas
India's War on India
Adivasi is an umbrella term for a heterogeneous set of ethnic
and tribal groups believed to be the aboriginal people of India.
They form about 7% of Indian population. In the past, most tribals were able to cover most of the shortfall with foods gathered from the forests. Forest degradation and curtailed forest access has reduced the availability of natural foods, compelling these communities, to depend more on purchased foods to meet their minimum
survival needs. This has lead to unrest.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
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An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
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CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
1. A Flexible Response
Imposing Costs on Non-state Aggression.
Mohan Guruswamy
Centre for Policy Alternatives
New Delhi
2. What is Terrorism?
• "Terror" comes from a Latin word meaning "to frighten".
• In November 2004, a United Nations Security Council report described
terrorism as any act "intended to cause death or serious bodily harm
to civilians or non-combatants with the purpose of intimidating a
population or compelling a government or an international
organization to do or abstain from doing any act".
• "Terrorism is defined as political violence in an asymmetrical conflict
that is designed to induce terror and psychic fear (sometimes
indiscriminate) through the violent victimization and destruction of
noncombatant targets (sometimes iconic symbols).”
• “The purpose of terrorism is to exploit the media in order to achieve
maximum attainable publicity as an amplifying force multiplier in order
to influence the targeted audiences in order to reach short- and
midterm political goals and/or desired long-term end states."
3. Propaganda of the deed (or propaganda by the deed, from the French
propagande par le fait) is a concept that promotes physical violence
against political enemies as a way of inspiring the masses and
catalyzing revolution. Propaganda of the deed may take many forms, but
in many cases utilizes violence against people seen as threats to the
working class. It also refers to the use of symbolic acts of violence
against structural targets, in which the act is intended to evoke a broader
meaning.
“We must spread our principles, not with words but with deeds, for this is
the most popular, the most potent, and the most irresistible form of
propaganda."[ Mikhail Bakunin]
“Ideas spring from deeds and not the other way around." [Carlo
Pisacane]
Propaganda by Deed!
4. Terrorism in the age of globalisation involves the terrorist, victim
and also an audience, because of the exposure it has through
mass media.
To threaten, injure or kill innocent bystanders in a circumstance
of political, religious, or other ideological conflict is an ancient
form of human behaviour.
But in the twentieth century such behaviour is abetted by an
array of available technologies that dwarf all previous realities.
Terrorism in the Age of Globalization.
5. Voice from the other side.
“Start the fire now, nothing is going to
happen until you start the fire. When
people see the flames they will begin to be
afraid. This is the most important target.
The media is covering the target Taj Mahal
more than any other.”
……. Handler’s instruction to Mumbai terrorist
6. The most dangerous terror menace comes from Kashmiri groups
based in Pakistan with long and intimate connections to al Qaeda
and bin Laden. The group which has been linked by initial Indian
assessments of the Mumbai attack, Lashkar-e Tayiba (literally the
army of the pure or righteous), was founded in Afghanistan and
Pakistan in the late 1980s and early 1990s by a group of Kashmiri
activists with the assistance of the Pakistani intelligence service,
the Inter Services Intelligence Directorate or ISI.
….Bruce Riedel, former CIA officer and Advisor to three US Presidents on
Middle Eastern and South Asian issues.
The Most Dangerous Terror Menace.
7. Because the loss of life is so low, many economists measure the
benefits of successful counter-terrorism measures in terms of loss of
gross domestic product avoided. Trouble is terrorism does little to
disrupt economic growth, as even 26/11 demonstrated.
Using the case of the US, it is estimated that simply continuing the
present measures involves costs exceeding benefits by a factor of at
least 10. Adopting additional defensive measures (such as stepping up
security at valuable targets) would, at best, entail costs 3.5 times the
benefits. Taking more pro-active measures (such as invading
Afghanistan) would have costs at least eight times the benefits.
.
Economic Cost of Terrorism?
8. "You can be sure of succeeding in your attacks if you only
attack places that are undefended. . . .
He who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost
heights of heaven, making it impossible for the enemy to
guard against him.
This being so, the places that he shall attack are precisely
those that the enemy cannot defend.“….
… Sun Tzu in Art of War
The Impossibility of Defence.
9. "You said you wanted to get Capone. Do you really wanna
get him? You see what I'm saying is, what are you prepared
to do?
. . . If you open the can on these worms you must be
prepared to go all the way. Because they're not gonna give
up the fight, until one of you is dead.
You wanna know how to get Capone?
They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to
the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. THAT'S the
Chicago way! And that's how you get Capone.
Now do you want to do that?“
What Jimmy Malone told Elliot Ness to get mobster Al Capone in
“The Untouchables”.
The Chicago Way!
10. In the Cold War days, the notion of deterrence was focused on the
threat of retaliation, the threat of punishment.
This notion was very much based on state-to-state interactions and it
was believed that three sets of conditions were critical for deterrence to
work.
One was that you could identify your adversary, the person or state.
The second was that the adversary had highly valued assets, and if you
could attack them, you could affect your adversary's decisions,
intentions, and actions.
And the third was that you had the means to deter your adversary and
the ability to credibly threaten the valued assets.
…….. Robert Nurick, Director, Moscow Carnegie Center
The Prevalent Notion of Deterrence.
11. Important that the other side soundly
predicts the response.
• To make the deterrent threat clearer and to maximize its credibility,
an adversary must be able to predict soundly what the scope of a
state’s response could be, not just what it would be.
• The most fearsome, rather than the most likely, military response
may hold sufficient credibility to deter an opponent. (MR!)
• The requirement is not necessarily for the adversary to be
completely certain that the threat will be carried out, but rather that
escalation would be reasonable, plausible military option in
response to the defined provocation
12. The relationship between a defending state and a nonstate
terrorist organization is inherently asymmetric.
One successful attack out of tens or even hundreds of
disrupted plans is a total success for the terrorist
organization, whereas for the state it is a total failure**.
*Dr.Shmuel Bar in “Deterring Terrorists”. Director Institute of Policy and
Strategy, Herzilya, Israel.
**"Mrs. Thatcher will now realize that Britain cannot occupy our country and
torture our prisoners and shoot our people in their own streets and get away with
it. Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once. You
will have to be lucky always. Give Ireland peace and there will be no more war.“
IRA statement after October 12, 1984 attack.
The Inherent Asymmetry.*
13. Managing the Tradeoff.
Good Taliban & Bad Taliban!
• Managing this tradeoff can be tricky.
• By restraining its response, the target runs a larger risk
of failure and thus future attacks.
• By retaliating strongly, however, the target risks
radicalizing moderates and plays into the hands of the
extremists, ultimately expanding their support and
power.
• Disabling the extremist while limiting damage may be
difficult, if not impossible.
• Indeed the terrorists count on this.
14. The asymmetry between states and terrorist organizations
seems to render paradigms tailored to strategic nuclear
deterrence inappropriate.
These theories tend to focus on the relationships between
states and on the unspeakable damage that can be inflicted at
the high end of potential conflict, either between conventional
armies or in a nuclear conflict.
These theories neglect pre-modern doctrines of deterrence*
which states have employed since time immemorial vis- à-vis
both states and non-state actors.
* Mathew 5:38 “You have that it was said: An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth” Usually
called the Law of Retribution.
The Neglect of the Pre-modern Doctrine of Deterrence.
15. General Deterrence: Norms, laws, and enforcement are designed and
implemented to produce and maintain the image that "negative" and
disruptive behaviors will receive attention and punishment.
Specific Deterrence: Specific deterrence focuses on punishing known
deviants in order to prevent them from ever again violating the specific
norms they have broken.
Incapacitation: Within the concept of specific deterrence is the idea that
punishment must be effective.
Retributive Theory and Just Desert: Simply put, if criminals and
deviants choose to engage in their disruptive and threatening behaviors,
they deserve to be punished. The focus here is not on the future and what
an individual may do. It is not concerned with prevention or rehabilitation.
The aim here is to punish people for what they have done.
*Sociology 200, Robert O. Keel, USML.
Rational Choice and Deterrence Theory.*
16. On the basis of the above analysis one may outline a
strategy for deterring terrorist organizations based on
four main pillars:
( 1) direct military deterrence towards the terrorist
leadership;
(2) threatening the institutionalized assets of the “host”
country;
(3) pressuring the host population;
(4) covert “human influence” operations (psy.ops);
(5)And/to pressuring the terrorist organization’s patron
entities.
*Dr. Shmuel Bar.
The Four Pillars of Deterrence*.
17. Cost of Excessive Retaliation.
Terrorism is effective because it imposes costs on everyone, not just
its direct victims. The most substantial of these indirect costs is fear
of a future attack, even though such fear is grossly misplaced. The
probability that an average American will die in a given year from a
terrorist attack is roughly 1 in 5 million; he is 575 times more likely to
commit suicide.
The direct costs of the September 11 attacks were massive— nearly
three thousand lives and economic losses as high as $300 billion— as
were the costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that the United
States launched in response. But consider the collateral costs as well.
In just the three months following the attacks, there were one
thousand extra traffic deaths in the United States. Why?
……….Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner in Super Freakonomics
18. Options limited by the limited nature of our
strategic discourse.
• Cold War concepts of deterrence inapplicable. MR threat to a single
or very limited counter-attack on a non-state actor just not credible.
• Israel experience not applicable. The situation is entirely different
here. No PLO/Hamas dynamics.
• Our inaction distinguishes between externally sponsored terrorist
acts on us and on others.
• There is no difference between good Taliban and bad Taliban.
• We must, however, distinguish between domestic terrorism and
external terrorism because it is under the ambit of our law.
20. Non-state Neighbors!
• Pakistan. LeT, HM, HUD, Babbar Khalsa etc.. Active state support.
• Good jihadis attack India, good/bad jihadis ( Omar, Hekmatyar,
Haqqani, Sayaff etc) attack America, and only bad jihadis (Tehrik-e-
Taliban Pakistan etc.) attack Pakistan!
• Bangladesh. ULFA, LeT, assorted groups. Regime dependent
official patronage. Presently bystander state.
• Burma. NSCN, KNF, assorted groups. No official support or
linkages. Bystander state.
• Bhutan. ULFA. Friendly country. Bystander state.
• Sri Lanka. LTTE remnants? Friendly country. No current threats.
21. What are India’s Options?
• Cry and Moan. Go to the UNSC, US State Dept., and get no
satisfaction.
• Economic sanctions. Don’t work as trade volumes are too low and it
hurts India more as trade balance favors it.
• Naval blockade. Difficult to sustain and maintain. Third country
sensibilities also involved.
• Army strike or Commando operation? Risk of failure, costs,
preparatory time and “heaviness” are factors against. Could turn into
a territorial issue.
• A one off stand off attack with PGM’s with inherent threat of more.
Cost effective. Fire and forget. Calms domestic opinion. Lowest cost
option and maximum bang for the buck! Limits action to non-state
actor assets. A submarine launched PGM attack could do just as
well.
• A specific punitive action on a non-state actor challenges the host
state to act against non-state actors, or to respond with inherent
risks of escalation, and run counter to international opinion.
22. Flexible response was a defense strategy implemented by John F.
Kennedy in 1961 to address the Kennedy administration's skepticism
of Dwight Eisenhower’s New Look and its policy of Massive
Retaliation.
Flexible response calls for mutual deterrence at strategic, tactical,
and conventional levels, giving the United States the capability to
respond to aggression across the spectrum of warfare, not limited
only to nuclear arms.
“Our defense posture must be both flexible and determined … our
response … selective, permitting deliberation and discrimination as to
timing, scope and targets …”
.….John F. Kennedy on 28 March 1962 in his Presidential message to the military.
The capability of military forces for effective reaction to any enemy threat or
attack with actions appropriate and adaptable to the circumstances
existing.
……Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. US Department of Defense 2005.
Flexible Response
23. Air operations conducted to divert, disrupt, delay, or destroy the enemy's
military potential before it can be brought to bear effectively against friendly
forces, or to otherwise achieve objectives. Air interdiction is conducted at
such distance from friendly forces that detailed integration of each air
mission with the fire and movement of friendly forces is not required.
……. US Dept. of Defence dictionary
What is Air Interdiction?
24. An air-to-surface missile (also, air-to-ground missile, AGM,
ASM or ATGM) is a missile designed to be launched from military
aircraft (bombers, attack aircraft, fighter aircraft or other kinds) and
strike ground targets on land, at sea, or both.
One of the major advantages of air-to-surface missiles over other
weapons available for aircraft to use to attack ground targets is the
standoff distance they provide. This allows them to launch the
weapons outside the most intense air defences around the target
site. Most air-to-surface missiles are fire-and-forget in order to take
most advantage of the standoff distance — they allow the launching
platform to turn away after launch. Some missiles have enough
range to be launched over the horizon.
The Perfect Stand-off Weapon!
25. AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon
Description
General Characteristics
Primary Function: Air-to-surface standoff weapon for use against a
variety of targets depending on payload.
Contractor: Raytheon Co.
Guidance: GPS/INS (Global Position/Inertial)
Length: 160 inches (4.1 meters)
Diameter: box shaped 13 inches on a side
Weight: From 1065 pounds (483 kilograms) to 1500 pounds (681
kilograms) depending upon the payload, sensor and propulsion
combination.
Wingspan: 106 inches
Aircraft Compatibility: F/A-18, F-16, AV-8B, P-3
Range: Low altitude launch - 12nm, High altitude launch - 40nm
Warhead: BLU-97 - Combined effects bomblets, BLU-108 - Sensor fused
weapon, BLU-111 - 500 lb general purpose warhead
Unit Cost: $150,000
Date Deployed: January 1999
AGM-154 Joint
Standoff Weapon
26. Muridke, home of Jamaat-ud-dawa, just 20kms as the crow
flies from Indian border.
31. Impose Costs Instead of Crying for Uncle!
• Retaliation must be swift, relatively proportionate and
focused on non-state actor.
• It must happen within the High Adrenalin period.
• Present the “host country” with a fait accompli.
• Armed Forces must be tasked to prepare slew of
retaliatory options for Government to exercise.
• Retaliation may not deter in the short run but it is vital for
domestic morale. Pre-modern deterrence works.
• Willingness to match any State or non-state escalation
must be demonstrated.
• Skin the cat to scare the monkey! Set off new internal
dynamics in HC. Restrain the military. Force them to
chain down terrorists.
32. IAF SU-30MKI Standoff Weapons.
• Air to Surface Missiles:
• 2 × Kh-59ME TV guided standoff
Missile, 115 km
• 2 × Kh-59MK Laser guided
standoff Missile, 285 km
• 4 × Kh-35 Anti-Ship Missile,
130 km
• 1 × PJ-10 Brahmos Supersonic
Cruise Missile, 300 km
• 6 × Kh-31P/A anti-radar missile,
70 km
• 6 × Kh-29T/L laser guided missile,
30 km
• 4 × S-8 rocket pods (80 unguided
rockets)
• 4 × S-13 rocket pods (20 unguided
rockets)
33. The Kh-59ME answer to the LeT!
• 320kgs warhead
• Upto 200kms range
• Tested accuracy
• TV or laser guided
• Inexpensive
• The Kh-59 is propelled by a
powder-fuel engine, and
incorporates a powder-fuel
accelerator in the tail. The
folding stabilizers are located
in the front of the missile, with
wings and rudder in the rear.
The Kh-59 cruises at an
altitude of about 7 meters
above water or 100-1,000
meters above ground with the
help of a radar altimeter. It can
be launched at speeds of 600
to 1,000 km/h at altitudes of
0.2 to 11 kilometers and has a
CEP of 2 to 3 meters
34. Nestled under the wings of the mother!
The air-launched Raduga Kh-59ME (AS-18) is a television-
guided cruise missile for attacks on small ground or surface
targets of known location.
35. What are ‘Host Country’ options?
• Retaliate in kind. HC has recently adapted the Harpoon anti-ship
missile for use on land targets, over US protests, and in violation of
EUMA.
• Attack will have to be on Indian State military targets such as a
radar station or airfield; or on unguarded non military targets like a
power station or rail yard etc. This will invite retaliation on like HC
targets. Can it afford an air war with India?
• Will have to factor IAF attacking its aircraft on its territory with stand-
off AAM’s.
• HC will have to consider where the next escalatory step will be?
Several Indian options. IAF ingress into HC airspace. Navy SLCM
attack.
• HC moves divisions eastwards. Indian Army mobilization. Will have
to consider US objections. Too much time will elapse. Cooling in
would have set.