DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY
PRESENTER : DR. NARAYANAN NAMBOOTHIRI G.
GUIDED BY
: DR. (BRIG) HEMANT KUMAR
: DR. CHETHANA K.
: DR. SHREYASWI SATHYANATH
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
1. Brief on Epidemiology and classification
2. Descriptive epidemiology- Introduction &
Classification
3. Steps in Descriptive epidemiology with
examples
4. Uses of descriptive epidemiology
10/25/2020 2
Epidemiology
EPI DEMO LOGOS
Upon,on,befall People,population,man the Study of
The study of anything that happens to
people
“That which befalls man”
10/25/2020 3
WHAT IS EPIDEMIOLOGY?
“The study of Frequency, Distribution and
Determinants of health-related states or
events in specified populations and the
application of this study for the promotion of
health and prevention of diseases”
(John.M.Last,1988)
10/25/2020 4
FATHER OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
JOHN SNOW (1813-1858)
Another importance of John Snow?
10/25/2020 5
CHOLERA – THE ERA OF
DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY
1854,September 1st week,London
600 people living within few blocks of the
BROAD STREET PUMP in London died
John Snow and William Farr appointed
Farr adhered to MIASMATIC THEORY
10/25/2020 6
MIASMATIC THEORY
• Disease was transmitted by miasm/cloud/bad
air that clung low on the surface of the earth
• So people who lived at lower altitudes are at
greater risk of contracting a disease
• Lower the elevation, higher the mortality
10/25/2020 7
TABLE FOR PROOF OF MIASMATIC THEORY BY
WILLIAM FARR
Deaths from Cholera in 10,000 Inhabitants by Elevation of Residence
above Sea Level, London, 1848–1849 by William Farr
* Table from Leon Gordis
10/25/2020 8
John Snow was not satisfied
In London a family obtains water by signing up with one
of the water companies
Intake of water were from a very polluted part of
THAMES RIVER
At one point of time,one of the companies,THE LAMBETH
COMPANY for technical reasons shift water intake from a
lesser polluted area of THAMES RIVER
10/25/2020 9
John snow identified pumps which
supplies water to each area and the company
that supply water through that pump
He went house to house,counted all the
deaths in each house,determines which
company supplies water to each house
(SHOE LEATHER EPIDEMIOLOGY..!!)
10/25/2020 10
Deaths were lower in people getting their water from
LAMBETH COMPANY when compared with others
In homes supplied by other companies, death rate was
315 per 10,000 houses, but in homes supplied by
lambeth company ,it was only
38 per 10,000 houses
Disease was transmitted by CONTAMINATED WATER
10/25/2020 11
TABLE FROM THE BOOK ‘ON THE MODE OF
COMMUNICATION OF CHOLERA’ BY JOHN SNOW
Deaths from Cholera per 10,000 Houses, by Source of Water Supply,
London, 1854
* Table from Leon Gordis
10/25/2020 12
DROP OF LONDON WATER...!!
* Leon Gordis
A cartoon by Punch in 1850 on drop of water in Thames
river,London published on Report of the General Board of
Health on the Epidemic Cholera of 1848 and 184910/25/2020 13
CLASSIFICATION
• Based on,
• 1. Frequency
• 2. Distribution DESCRIPTIVE Epidemiology
a) time
b) place
c) person
• 3. Determinants ANALYTIC Epidemiology
10/25/2020 14
DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY
Simply, Study of the occurrence
and distribution of disease
INTRODUCTION
• First phase of an Epidemiological investigation
BASIC INSTINCT
• a. When is the disease occurring ?
Time distribution
• b. Where is it occurring?
Place distribution
• c. Who is getting the disease?
Person distribution
10/25/2020 16
TYPES OF DESCRIPTIVE STUDIES
1. CASE REPORTS/CASE SERIES
2. CROSS SECTIONAL DESCRIPTIVE STUDIES
3. LONGITUDINAL DESCRIPTIVE STUDIES
10/25/2020 17
1. CASE REPORTS/CASE SERIES
• This type of study is based on reports of a
single, or else a series of cases of specific
treated or untreated condition without any
specific comparison (control) group
• Study is intended on :
1. Proportions
10/25/2020 18
2. CROSS SECTIONAL DESCRIPTIVE STUDIES
• Done on a sample of the total population
• May be community based or hospital based
• Study is intended on :
1. “Prevalence” of a factor of interest
2. “Mean” of a factor of interest
3. Description of a Pattern
4. As a surrogate for longitudinal descriptive studies
10/25/2020 19
3. LONGITUDINAL DESCRIPTIVE STUDIES
• A longitudinal descriptive study follows up a single
group of subjects over a defined period of time
• More scientific than Cross sectional ones but at the
same time more costly and time consuming
• Study is intended on :
1. ‘Incidence’ of a disease
2. ‘Natural history’ of a disease
3. ‘Trend’ of a disease
4. ‘Trend’ of a health - related phenomena
10/25/2020 20
STEPS/PROCEDURES
1. Defining the population to be studied
2. Defining the disease under study
3. Describing the disease by
• a. Time
• b. Place
• c. Person
4. Measurement of disease
5. Comparing with known indices
6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis
10/25/2020 21
DETAILS OF STEPS IN DESCRIPTIVE
EPIDEMIOLOGY
I. DEFINING THE POPULATION
• Descriptive studies are investigations of
populations, not individuals
• Population base must be defined not only in
terms of the total number, but also its
composition in terms of age, sex, occupation,
cultural characters and similar information
needed for the study.
10/25/2020 23
• The “Defined Population" can be the whole
population in a geographic area, or more often a
representative sample taken from it.
• It can also be ‘Specially selected groups’ such as
age and sex groups, occupational groups etc..
IMPORTANCE
• It provides the denominator for calculating rates
which are essential to measure the frequency of
disease and study its distribution and
determinants
10/25/2020 24
CONDITIONS TO DEFINE A POPULATION
1. Large enough so that age, sex and other specific
rates are meaningful.
2. The community chosen should be stable,
without migration into or out of the area. Eg:
visitors and guests.
3. Community participation.
4. Population should not be overtly different from
other communities in the region
5. A health facility should be close enough to
provide relatively easy access for patients
requiring medical services
10/25/2020 25
STEPS/PROCEDURES
1. Defining the population to be studied
2. Defining the disease under study
3. Describing the disease by
• a. Time
• b. Place
• c. Person
4. Measurement of disease
5. Comparing with known indices
6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis
10/25/2020 26
II. DEFINING THE DISEASE
• Main concern of an Epidemiologist is to obtain an
accurate estimate of disease in a population
• Needs a definition that is both precise and valid
to enable him to identify those who have the
disease from those who do not
• OPERATIONAL DEFINITION : A definition by
which the disease or condition can be identified
and measured in the defined population with a
degree of accuracy (criteria by which disease is
measured will be included)
10/25/2020 27
EXAMPLE-DEFINING TONSILITIS
CLINICIAN
• Inflammation of the tonsils caused by
infection, usually with streptococcus pyogenes
EPIDEMIOLOGIST
• Inflammation of tonsils which shows the
presence of enlarged, red tonsils with white
exudate, which on throat swab culture grow
predominantly S. pyogenes
10/25/2020 28
STEPS/PROCEDURES
1. Defining the population to be studied
2. Defining the disease under study
3. Describing the disease by
• a. Time
• b. Place
• c. Person
4. Measurement of disease
5. Comparing with known indices
6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis
10/25/2020 29
III. DESCRIBING THE DISEASE
• Describe the Occurrence and Distribution of
disease (or health-related events or
characteristics within populations) by time,
place and person
• This involves systematic collection and
analysis of data.
10/25/2020 30
Characteristics frequently examined
in descriptive studies
* Park,24th edition
10/25/2020 31
TIME PLACE PERSON
Year Climatic zones Age, Sex
Season Country, region Birth order , Family size
Month Urban/rural Marital state
Week Local community Height, weight
Day Towns Occupation,Blood pressure
Hour of
Onset
Cities Social status , Blood
cholesterol
Duration Institutions Education, Personal habits
A. TIME DISTRIBUTION
• Epidemiologists have identified three kinds of
time trends or fluctuations in disease
occurrence :
I. Short-term fluctuations
II. Periodic fluctuations, and
III. Long-term or secular trends
• Give important clues about the source or
etiology of the disease, thereby suggesting
potential preventive measures.
10/25/2020 32
i. Short term fluctuations
• The best known Short term fluctuation is an
Epidemic
EPIDEMIC
The occurrence of cases of an illness or other
health-related events in a community or
region clearly in excess of normal expectancy
10/25/2020 33
TYPES OF EPIDEMICS
A. Common - source epidemics.
(a) Single exposure or "point source" epidemics.
(b) Continuous or multiple exposure epidemics
(c) Continous or interrupted exposure
B. Propagated epidemics.
(a) Person-to-person
(b) Arthropod vector
(c) Animal reservoir
C. Slow (modern) epidemics.
10/25/2020 34
EPIDEMIC CURVE
• A graph of time distribution of epidemic cases
is called the Epidemic curve
10/25/2020 35
IMPORTANCE
(1) A time relationship with exposure to a
suspected source
(2) A cyclical or seasonal pattern
suggestive of a particular infection, and
common source or propagated spread of
the disease.
Common – source, single
exposure or point source epidemics
• Exposure to a disease agent is brief and
simultaneous.
• Cases develop within one incubation period of
the disease.
10/25/2020 36
Important features
Explosive (Clustering of cases within narrow interval of time)
All cases develop in one incubation period
Curve rises rapidly and falls rapidly
No secondary waves
10/25/2020 37
EXAMPLES
• Bhopal tragedy-India (contamination of the
environment by industrial chemicals or
pollutants),33rd Anniversary
• Minamata disease – Japan (consumption of fish
containing high concentration of methyl mercury)
• Food poisoning
• Chicken pox
• Cholera
• Measles
10/25/2020 38
Common – source, continous or
repeated exposure
• Exposure from the same source may be
continous, repeated or intermittent
• When an infectious agent persists in the
common vehicle for some amount of time
10/25/2020 39
Important features
More than one peak
Curve rises slowly, and also falls gradually
Continues beyond the range of one incubation period
There is intermittent duration of the exposure
After the source is controlled, there is decrease in disease
 Extended or irregular
10/25/2020 40
EXAMPLES
• Gonorrhoea outbreak – A Sex worker may be a
common source but since she will infect her
clients over a period of time there may be no
explosive rise in the number of cases
• Legionnaires disease outbreak – A respiratory
illness that resulted in an epidemic due to a
common source of Air conditioner
• Contaminated well in a village
• Nationally distributed brand foods
10/25/2020 41
Common – source, continous or
interrupted exposure
• There is a common source, but the source introduces the
infection into the vehicle only interruptedly
EXAMPLE
Out of the 4 nurses looking after a urological ward, 1
maybe carrier of Pseudomonas aeroginosa.
Now, as and when this particular NURSE is on duty
She would introduce the infection through the catheters
that she may be passing into the Patients
10/25/2020 42
Propagated Epidemics
• Most often of infectious in origin and results
from person to person transmission of an
infectious agent
(a) Person-to-person - eg: TB
(b) Arthropod vector- eg: Malaria
(c) Animal reservoir - eg: Anthrax
10/25/2020 43
Course of typical propagated epidemic
* Table from Park,24th edition10/25/2020 44
Important features
 Gradual rise and tails off over a much longer
period of time
 Transmission continues until the number of
susceptible is depleted
10/25/2020 45
EXAMPLES
1. Hepatitis A
2. TB
3. Diphtheria in school children
4. Polio
5. Malaria
6. Measles
ii. Periodic fluctuations
1. SEASONAL TREND
• Characteristic of many communicable
diseases.
• Related to Environmental conditions.
• Non-infectious diseases and conditions may
sometimes exhibit seasonal variation.
10/25/2020 46
Malaria - Average Monthly Climatology
Conditions in India
Malaria - Average Monthly Climatology Conditions in India (1970-2000)
10/25/2020 47
Seasonal trend of dengue/DHF in India 2005-2007
* Table from Park,24th edition
10/25/2020 48
EXAMPLES
• Asthma – Spring
• URTI – Winter
• GI infections – Summer
• Dengue - September
• Non infectious diseases – Sunstroke, Hay
Fever, Snake Bite
10/25/2020 49
2. CYCLIC TREND
• Occur in cycle period of time
• Spread over short periods of time which may be
days, weeks, months or years.
EXAMPLES
• Influenza pandemics - at intervals of 7-10 years,
due to antigenic variations
• Rubella - every 6-9 years
• Automobile accidents in US - more frequent on
weekends, especially Saturdays
10/25/2020 50
Influenza virus infection –cyclic trend
10/25/2020 51
iii. Long term or Secular trends
• Changes in the occurrence of disease (ie, A
progressive increase or decrease) over a long
period of time, generally several years or
decades
• May have short term fluctuations imposed on
it
10/25/2020 52
Secular Trends of Incidence of Lung
Cancer in a developed country
* WHO_AFMC red book
10/25/2020 53
B. PLACE DISTRIBUTION
• All disease have a definite geographical pattern
• Environmental Factors, Genus, Socio Economic
Factors, Role of diet, Migration and other
etiological factors can be studied
• Major variations are :
1. International variations
2. National variations
3. Rural – Urban variations
4. Local variations
10/25/2020 54
i. International Variations
• Difference in disease pattern over different
countries
* UNAIDS,AIDSinfo 2017
10/25/2020 55
EXAMPLES
• Ca stomach - common in Japan
• Ca oral cavity – common in India
• Ca cervix – common in India
• Ca stomach – low in US
• Ca breast – low in Japan
10/25/2020 56
ii. National Variations
• Disease pattern distribution within a country
*NACO survey 2015
10/25/2020 57
EXAMPLES
• Endemic goitre – common in hilly areas
of North India such as JK, HP, Delhi,
Punjab, UP, Haryana (Called as GOITRE
BELT)
• HIV – More in Andhra pradesh,Tamil
nadu, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat
10/25/2020 58
iii. Rural – Urban Variations
• Disease pattern distribution across Rural and
Urban field areas
• Due to difference in
Population density
Social class
Deficiencies in medical care
Levels of sanitation, education
Environmental factors
10/25/2020 59
Rural-Urban variation of Cancer in Missouri
* The health and welfare of rural and urban cancer survivors in Missouri – Mario
schootman et al. CDC 2013
10/25/2020 60
EXAMPLES
Common in Urban
• C/c bronchitis
• Lung cancer
• Mental illness
• CVS diseases
• Drug dependence
Common in Rural
• Skin diseases
• Helminthic diseases
• Zoonotic diseases
• TB
10/25/2020 61
iv. Local variations
• Disease pattern distribution across cities,
outer city and inner-city variations
• Best studied with the aid of 'spot maps' or
'shaded maps‘
10/25/2020 62
EXAMPLES
1. Diarrhoea
2. Enteric Fever
3. Cholera
10/25/2020 63
SPOT MAP USED BY JOHN SNOW
Spot map of Asiatic cholera in London
* Park,24th edition
10/25/2020
64
SPOT MAPS- These maps show at a glance areas of
high or low frequency, the boundaries and patterns
of disease distribution.
C. PERSON DISTRIBUTION
• By defining the persons who develop the
disease by Age, Sex, Occupation, Martial
Status, Habits, Social Class and other host
factors
• For Natural history of disease
10/25/2020 65
FACTORS IN PERSON DISTRIBUTION
• Age
Some diseases are more frequent in certain age
groups
Eg: Measles,chickenpox in childhood
Cancer,hypertension,diabetes in middle age
Atherosclerosis,Alzheimers in old age
BIMODALITY : Two separate peaks in disease –age
distribution
eg.- Leukemia,Hodgkins disease
10/25/2020 66
Bimodal curve for Hodgkins disease
• Sex
Eg: Obesity, hyperthyroidism(more In Women)
Lung Cancer, Coronary Heart Disease (More In Men)
• Ethnicity/Racial
Eg: Tuberculosis, Essential Hypertension, Coronary Heart
Disease, Cancer, And Sickle Cell Anaemia
• Marital status
Eg: Mortality Rate (Less In Married) Ca Cervix(more In
Unmarried)
10/25/2020 67
• Occupation
Eg : silicosis,asbestosis
• Social class
Eg : Diabetes (upper-class),
Malnutrition, TB(lower-class)
• Behaviour
Eg : Cancer, Coronary artery disease
10/25/2020 68
• Stress
Eg : hypertension, peptic ulcer, mental problems
• Migration
Eg : filaria, malaria
10/25/2020 69
STEPS/PROCEDURES
1. Defining the population to be studied
2. Defining the disease under study
3. Describing the disease by
• a. Time
• b. Place
• c. Person
4. Measurement of disease
5. Comparing with known indices
6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis
10/25/2020 70
IV. MEASUREMENT OF DISEASE
• Amount of disease load in a population
• By measurement of
1. Mortality
2. Morbidity – Incidence & Prevalence
Longitudinal studies Cross sectional studies
10/25/2020 71
i. Cross sectional studies (Prevalence)
• Simplest form (like a photograph)
• Single examination of a cross-section of
population at one point in time
• Results of which can be projected on the
whole population provided the sampling has
been done correctly
• More useful for chronic than short-lived
diseases
• Eg: Hypertension
10/25/2020 72
ii. Longitudinal studies (Incidence)
• Complex form (like a cinefilm)
• Observations are repeated in the same
population over a prolonged period of time by
means of follow-up examinations
• Uses :
To study the natural history of disease and its
future outcome
For identifying risk factors of disease
Finding out incidence
10/25/2020 73
RELATION B/W
PREVALANCE&INCIDENCE
10/25/2020 74
10/25/2020 75
P = I * DP-prevelance, I-incience, D-duration
* All illustrations from Leon Gordis
10/25/2020 76
STEPS/PROCEDURES
1. Defining the population to be studied
2. Defining the disease under study
3. Describing the disease by
• a. Time
• b. Place
• c. Person
4. Measurement of disease
5. Comparing with known indices
6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis
10/25/2020 77
V. COMPARING WITH KNOWN
INDICES
• By making comparisons between different
populations, and subgroups of the same
population, it is possible to arrive at clues to
disease aetiology
• Eg : comparing smokers and non smokers in
the study of Lung cancer
10/25/2020 78
Effect of discontinuing fluoridation in Antigo, Wisconsin, November 1960.
DMF, decayed, missing, and filled teeth; FL+, during fluoridation; FL-, after
fluoridation was discontinued – *Leon Gordis
*Leon Gordis10/25/2020 79
STEPS/PROCEDURES
1. Defining the population to be studied
2. Defining the disease under study
3. Describing the disease by
• a. Time
• b. Place
• c. Person
4. Measurement of disease
5. Comparing with known indices
6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis
10/25/2020 80
VI. FORMULATION OF HYPOTHESIS
• A hypothesis is a supposition, arrived at from
observation or reflection
FIVE ESSENTIALS OF A HYPOTHESIS
1. The population
2. The specific cause being considered
3. The expected outcome - the disease
4. The dose-response relationship
5. The time-response relationship
(*PSE-DT )
10/25/2020 81
EXAMPLE OF A HYPOTHESIS
• "Cigarette smoking causes lung cancer"
(an incomplete hypothesis)
• "The smoking of 30-40 cigarettes per day
causes lung cancer in 10 per cent of smokers
after 20 years of exposure“
(a complete hypothesis)
10/25/2020 82
Uses of Descriptive
Epidemiology
Data regarding magnitude of the disease load
via morbidity and mortality rates
Disease aetiology
Provide background data for planning,
organizing and evaluating preventive and
curative services
contribute to research by describing variations
in disease occurrence by time, place and
person.
10/25/2020 83
SUMMARY
• Descriptive studies are the first steps into a
new epidemiological research (testing the
water)
• It gives answers to how many, and 3 “W”s i.e,
when,where,who
• Three important use of descriptive studies are
trend analysis, healthcare planning and
hypothesis generation
10/25/2020 84
TAKE HOME MESSAGE
If we consider ‘Case scenario’ as a
CINEMA, The Director will be the
Clinician, but the SCREENPLAY of the
Cinema will be written by an10/25/2020 85
REFERENCES
• K. Park; Park’s Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine 24th edition 2017.
• Leon Gordis; Epidemiology, Third edition, 2004.
• http://www.epidemiology.ch/history/louis.htm
• Who AFMC book
• Brian McMahon, Epidemiology principles and methods, 1st edition 1970.
• Mario schoolman et al,The health and welfare of rural and urban cancer
survivors in Missouri – Mario schootman et al.Centre for disease control and
prevention 2013
• Kaiser family foundation based on UNAIDS,AIDS info. Accesed on November
2017
• Naco 2015 data on AIDS prevalance in India
• M.D.Gupte,Vidya Ramachandran et.al,Epidemiological profile of
India:Historical and contemporory perspectives,National institute
epidemiology,chennai
• Vivek jain text book of social and preventive medicine,8th edition
10/25/2020 86
THANK YOU..
10/25/2020 87

DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY

  • 1.
    DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY PRESENTER :DR. NARAYANAN NAMBOOTHIRI G. GUIDED BY : DR. (BRIG) HEMANT KUMAR : DR. CHETHANA K. : DR. SHREYASWI SATHYANATH
  • 2.
    OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION 1.Brief on Epidemiology and classification 2. Descriptive epidemiology- Introduction & Classification 3. Steps in Descriptive epidemiology with examples 4. Uses of descriptive epidemiology 10/25/2020 2
  • 3.
    Epidemiology EPI DEMO LOGOS Upon,on,befallPeople,population,man the Study of The study of anything that happens to people “That which befalls man” 10/25/2020 3
  • 4.
    WHAT IS EPIDEMIOLOGY? “Thestudy of Frequency, Distribution and Determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations and the application of this study for the promotion of health and prevention of diseases” (John.M.Last,1988) 10/25/2020 4
  • 5.
    FATHER OF EPIDEMIOLOGY JOHNSNOW (1813-1858) Another importance of John Snow? 10/25/2020 5
  • 6.
    CHOLERA – THEERA OF DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY 1854,September 1st week,London 600 people living within few blocks of the BROAD STREET PUMP in London died John Snow and William Farr appointed Farr adhered to MIASMATIC THEORY 10/25/2020 6
  • 7.
    MIASMATIC THEORY • Diseasewas transmitted by miasm/cloud/bad air that clung low on the surface of the earth • So people who lived at lower altitudes are at greater risk of contracting a disease • Lower the elevation, higher the mortality 10/25/2020 7
  • 8.
    TABLE FOR PROOFOF MIASMATIC THEORY BY WILLIAM FARR Deaths from Cholera in 10,000 Inhabitants by Elevation of Residence above Sea Level, London, 1848–1849 by William Farr * Table from Leon Gordis 10/25/2020 8
  • 9.
    John Snow wasnot satisfied In London a family obtains water by signing up with one of the water companies Intake of water were from a very polluted part of THAMES RIVER At one point of time,one of the companies,THE LAMBETH COMPANY for technical reasons shift water intake from a lesser polluted area of THAMES RIVER 10/25/2020 9
  • 10.
    John snow identifiedpumps which supplies water to each area and the company that supply water through that pump He went house to house,counted all the deaths in each house,determines which company supplies water to each house (SHOE LEATHER EPIDEMIOLOGY..!!) 10/25/2020 10
  • 11.
    Deaths were lowerin people getting their water from LAMBETH COMPANY when compared with others In homes supplied by other companies, death rate was 315 per 10,000 houses, but in homes supplied by lambeth company ,it was only 38 per 10,000 houses Disease was transmitted by CONTAMINATED WATER 10/25/2020 11
  • 12.
    TABLE FROM THEBOOK ‘ON THE MODE OF COMMUNICATION OF CHOLERA’ BY JOHN SNOW Deaths from Cholera per 10,000 Houses, by Source of Water Supply, London, 1854 * Table from Leon Gordis 10/25/2020 12
  • 13.
    DROP OF LONDONWATER...!! * Leon Gordis A cartoon by Punch in 1850 on drop of water in Thames river,London published on Report of the General Board of Health on the Epidemic Cholera of 1848 and 184910/25/2020 13
  • 14.
    CLASSIFICATION • Based on, •1. Frequency • 2. Distribution DESCRIPTIVE Epidemiology a) time b) place c) person • 3. Determinants ANALYTIC Epidemiology 10/25/2020 14
  • 15.
    DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY Simply, Studyof the occurrence and distribution of disease
  • 16.
    INTRODUCTION • First phaseof an Epidemiological investigation BASIC INSTINCT • a. When is the disease occurring ? Time distribution • b. Where is it occurring? Place distribution • c. Who is getting the disease? Person distribution 10/25/2020 16
  • 17.
    TYPES OF DESCRIPTIVESTUDIES 1. CASE REPORTS/CASE SERIES 2. CROSS SECTIONAL DESCRIPTIVE STUDIES 3. LONGITUDINAL DESCRIPTIVE STUDIES 10/25/2020 17
  • 18.
    1. CASE REPORTS/CASESERIES • This type of study is based on reports of a single, or else a series of cases of specific treated or untreated condition without any specific comparison (control) group • Study is intended on : 1. Proportions 10/25/2020 18
  • 19.
    2. CROSS SECTIONALDESCRIPTIVE STUDIES • Done on a sample of the total population • May be community based or hospital based • Study is intended on : 1. “Prevalence” of a factor of interest 2. “Mean” of a factor of interest 3. Description of a Pattern 4. As a surrogate for longitudinal descriptive studies 10/25/2020 19
  • 20.
    3. LONGITUDINAL DESCRIPTIVESTUDIES • A longitudinal descriptive study follows up a single group of subjects over a defined period of time • More scientific than Cross sectional ones but at the same time more costly and time consuming • Study is intended on : 1. ‘Incidence’ of a disease 2. ‘Natural history’ of a disease 3. ‘Trend’ of a disease 4. ‘Trend’ of a health - related phenomena 10/25/2020 20
  • 21.
    STEPS/PROCEDURES 1. Defining thepopulation to be studied 2. Defining the disease under study 3. Describing the disease by • a. Time • b. Place • c. Person 4. Measurement of disease 5. Comparing with known indices 6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis 10/25/2020 21
  • 22.
    DETAILS OF STEPSIN DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY
  • 23.
    I. DEFINING THEPOPULATION • Descriptive studies are investigations of populations, not individuals • Population base must be defined not only in terms of the total number, but also its composition in terms of age, sex, occupation, cultural characters and similar information needed for the study. 10/25/2020 23
  • 24.
    • The “DefinedPopulation" can be the whole population in a geographic area, or more often a representative sample taken from it. • It can also be ‘Specially selected groups’ such as age and sex groups, occupational groups etc.. IMPORTANCE • It provides the denominator for calculating rates which are essential to measure the frequency of disease and study its distribution and determinants 10/25/2020 24
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    CONDITIONS TO DEFINEA POPULATION 1. Large enough so that age, sex and other specific rates are meaningful. 2. The community chosen should be stable, without migration into or out of the area. Eg: visitors and guests. 3. Community participation. 4. Population should not be overtly different from other communities in the region 5. A health facility should be close enough to provide relatively easy access for patients requiring medical services 10/25/2020 25
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    STEPS/PROCEDURES 1. Defining thepopulation to be studied 2. Defining the disease under study 3. Describing the disease by • a. Time • b. Place • c. Person 4. Measurement of disease 5. Comparing with known indices 6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis 10/25/2020 26
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    II. DEFINING THEDISEASE • Main concern of an Epidemiologist is to obtain an accurate estimate of disease in a population • Needs a definition that is both precise and valid to enable him to identify those who have the disease from those who do not • OPERATIONAL DEFINITION : A definition by which the disease or condition can be identified and measured in the defined population with a degree of accuracy (criteria by which disease is measured will be included) 10/25/2020 27
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    EXAMPLE-DEFINING TONSILITIS CLINICIAN • Inflammationof the tonsils caused by infection, usually with streptococcus pyogenes EPIDEMIOLOGIST • Inflammation of tonsils which shows the presence of enlarged, red tonsils with white exudate, which on throat swab culture grow predominantly S. pyogenes 10/25/2020 28
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    STEPS/PROCEDURES 1. Defining thepopulation to be studied 2. Defining the disease under study 3. Describing the disease by • a. Time • b. Place • c. Person 4. Measurement of disease 5. Comparing with known indices 6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis 10/25/2020 29
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    III. DESCRIBING THEDISEASE • Describe the Occurrence and Distribution of disease (or health-related events or characteristics within populations) by time, place and person • This involves systematic collection and analysis of data. 10/25/2020 30
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    Characteristics frequently examined indescriptive studies * Park,24th edition 10/25/2020 31 TIME PLACE PERSON Year Climatic zones Age, Sex Season Country, region Birth order , Family size Month Urban/rural Marital state Week Local community Height, weight Day Towns Occupation,Blood pressure Hour of Onset Cities Social status , Blood cholesterol Duration Institutions Education, Personal habits
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    A. TIME DISTRIBUTION •Epidemiologists have identified three kinds of time trends or fluctuations in disease occurrence : I. Short-term fluctuations II. Periodic fluctuations, and III. Long-term or secular trends • Give important clues about the source or etiology of the disease, thereby suggesting potential preventive measures. 10/25/2020 32
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    i. Short termfluctuations • The best known Short term fluctuation is an Epidemic EPIDEMIC The occurrence of cases of an illness or other health-related events in a community or region clearly in excess of normal expectancy 10/25/2020 33
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    TYPES OF EPIDEMICS A.Common - source epidemics. (a) Single exposure or "point source" epidemics. (b) Continuous or multiple exposure epidemics (c) Continous or interrupted exposure B. Propagated epidemics. (a) Person-to-person (b) Arthropod vector (c) Animal reservoir C. Slow (modern) epidemics. 10/25/2020 34
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    EPIDEMIC CURVE • Agraph of time distribution of epidemic cases is called the Epidemic curve 10/25/2020 35 IMPORTANCE (1) A time relationship with exposure to a suspected source (2) A cyclical or seasonal pattern suggestive of a particular infection, and common source or propagated spread of the disease.
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    Common – source,single exposure or point source epidemics • Exposure to a disease agent is brief and simultaneous. • Cases develop within one incubation period of the disease. 10/25/2020 36
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    Important features Explosive (Clusteringof cases within narrow interval of time) All cases develop in one incubation period Curve rises rapidly and falls rapidly No secondary waves 10/25/2020 37
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    EXAMPLES • Bhopal tragedy-India(contamination of the environment by industrial chemicals or pollutants),33rd Anniversary • Minamata disease – Japan (consumption of fish containing high concentration of methyl mercury) • Food poisoning • Chicken pox • Cholera • Measles 10/25/2020 38
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    Common – source,continous or repeated exposure • Exposure from the same source may be continous, repeated or intermittent • When an infectious agent persists in the common vehicle for some amount of time 10/25/2020 39
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    Important features More thanone peak Curve rises slowly, and also falls gradually Continues beyond the range of one incubation period There is intermittent duration of the exposure After the source is controlled, there is decrease in disease  Extended or irregular 10/25/2020 40
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    EXAMPLES • Gonorrhoea outbreak– A Sex worker may be a common source but since she will infect her clients over a period of time there may be no explosive rise in the number of cases • Legionnaires disease outbreak – A respiratory illness that resulted in an epidemic due to a common source of Air conditioner • Contaminated well in a village • Nationally distributed brand foods 10/25/2020 41
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    Common – source,continous or interrupted exposure • There is a common source, but the source introduces the infection into the vehicle only interruptedly EXAMPLE Out of the 4 nurses looking after a urological ward, 1 maybe carrier of Pseudomonas aeroginosa. Now, as and when this particular NURSE is on duty She would introduce the infection through the catheters that she may be passing into the Patients 10/25/2020 42
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    Propagated Epidemics • Mostoften of infectious in origin and results from person to person transmission of an infectious agent (a) Person-to-person - eg: TB (b) Arthropod vector- eg: Malaria (c) Animal reservoir - eg: Anthrax 10/25/2020 43
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    Course of typicalpropagated epidemic * Table from Park,24th edition10/25/2020 44
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    Important features  Gradualrise and tails off over a much longer period of time  Transmission continues until the number of susceptible is depleted 10/25/2020 45 EXAMPLES 1. Hepatitis A 2. TB 3. Diphtheria in school children 4. Polio 5. Malaria 6. Measles
  • 46.
    ii. Periodic fluctuations 1.SEASONAL TREND • Characteristic of many communicable diseases. • Related to Environmental conditions. • Non-infectious diseases and conditions may sometimes exhibit seasonal variation. 10/25/2020 46
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    Malaria - AverageMonthly Climatology Conditions in India Malaria - Average Monthly Climatology Conditions in India (1970-2000) 10/25/2020 47
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    Seasonal trend ofdengue/DHF in India 2005-2007 * Table from Park,24th edition 10/25/2020 48
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    EXAMPLES • Asthma –Spring • URTI – Winter • GI infections – Summer • Dengue - September • Non infectious diseases – Sunstroke, Hay Fever, Snake Bite 10/25/2020 49
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    2. CYCLIC TREND •Occur in cycle period of time • Spread over short periods of time which may be days, weeks, months or years. EXAMPLES • Influenza pandemics - at intervals of 7-10 years, due to antigenic variations • Rubella - every 6-9 years • Automobile accidents in US - more frequent on weekends, especially Saturdays 10/25/2020 50
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    Influenza virus infection–cyclic trend 10/25/2020 51
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    iii. Long termor Secular trends • Changes in the occurrence of disease (ie, A progressive increase or decrease) over a long period of time, generally several years or decades • May have short term fluctuations imposed on it 10/25/2020 52
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    Secular Trends ofIncidence of Lung Cancer in a developed country * WHO_AFMC red book 10/25/2020 53
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    B. PLACE DISTRIBUTION •All disease have a definite geographical pattern • Environmental Factors, Genus, Socio Economic Factors, Role of diet, Migration and other etiological factors can be studied • Major variations are : 1. International variations 2. National variations 3. Rural – Urban variations 4. Local variations 10/25/2020 54
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    i. International Variations •Difference in disease pattern over different countries * UNAIDS,AIDSinfo 2017 10/25/2020 55
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    EXAMPLES • Ca stomach- common in Japan • Ca oral cavity – common in India • Ca cervix – common in India • Ca stomach – low in US • Ca breast – low in Japan 10/25/2020 56
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    ii. National Variations •Disease pattern distribution within a country *NACO survey 2015 10/25/2020 57
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    EXAMPLES • Endemic goitre– common in hilly areas of North India such as JK, HP, Delhi, Punjab, UP, Haryana (Called as GOITRE BELT) • HIV – More in Andhra pradesh,Tamil nadu, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat 10/25/2020 58
  • 59.
    iii. Rural –Urban Variations • Disease pattern distribution across Rural and Urban field areas • Due to difference in Population density Social class Deficiencies in medical care Levels of sanitation, education Environmental factors 10/25/2020 59
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    Rural-Urban variation ofCancer in Missouri * The health and welfare of rural and urban cancer survivors in Missouri – Mario schootman et al. CDC 2013 10/25/2020 60
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    EXAMPLES Common in Urban •C/c bronchitis • Lung cancer • Mental illness • CVS diseases • Drug dependence Common in Rural • Skin diseases • Helminthic diseases • Zoonotic diseases • TB 10/25/2020 61
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    iv. Local variations •Disease pattern distribution across cities, outer city and inner-city variations • Best studied with the aid of 'spot maps' or 'shaded maps‘ 10/25/2020 62 EXAMPLES 1. Diarrhoea 2. Enteric Fever 3. Cholera
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  • 64.
    SPOT MAP USEDBY JOHN SNOW Spot map of Asiatic cholera in London * Park,24th edition 10/25/2020 64 SPOT MAPS- These maps show at a glance areas of high or low frequency, the boundaries and patterns of disease distribution.
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    C. PERSON DISTRIBUTION •By defining the persons who develop the disease by Age, Sex, Occupation, Martial Status, Habits, Social Class and other host factors • For Natural history of disease 10/25/2020 65
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    FACTORS IN PERSONDISTRIBUTION • Age Some diseases are more frequent in certain age groups Eg: Measles,chickenpox in childhood Cancer,hypertension,diabetes in middle age Atherosclerosis,Alzheimers in old age BIMODALITY : Two separate peaks in disease –age distribution eg.- Leukemia,Hodgkins disease 10/25/2020 66 Bimodal curve for Hodgkins disease
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    • Sex Eg: Obesity,hyperthyroidism(more In Women) Lung Cancer, Coronary Heart Disease (More In Men) • Ethnicity/Racial Eg: Tuberculosis, Essential Hypertension, Coronary Heart Disease, Cancer, And Sickle Cell Anaemia • Marital status Eg: Mortality Rate (Less In Married) Ca Cervix(more In Unmarried) 10/25/2020 67
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    • Occupation Eg :silicosis,asbestosis • Social class Eg : Diabetes (upper-class), Malnutrition, TB(lower-class) • Behaviour Eg : Cancer, Coronary artery disease 10/25/2020 68
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    • Stress Eg :hypertension, peptic ulcer, mental problems • Migration Eg : filaria, malaria 10/25/2020 69
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    STEPS/PROCEDURES 1. Defining thepopulation to be studied 2. Defining the disease under study 3. Describing the disease by • a. Time • b. Place • c. Person 4. Measurement of disease 5. Comparing with known indices 6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis 10/25/2020 70
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    IV. MEASUREMENT OFDISEASE • Amount of disease load in a population • By measurement of 1. Mortality 2. Morbidity – Incidence & Prevalence Longitudinal studies Cross sectional studies 10/25/2020 71
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    i. Cross sectionalstudies (Prevalence) • Simplest form (like a photograph) • Single examination of a cross-section of population at one point in time • Results of which can be projected on the whole population provided the sampling has been done correctly • More useful for chronic than short-lived diseases • Eg: Hypertension 10/25/2020 72
  • 73.
    ii. Longitudinal studies(Incidence) • Complex form (like a cinefilm) • Observations are repeated in the same population over a prolonged period of time by means of follow-up examinations • Uses : To study the natural history of disease and its future outcome For identifying risk factors of disease Finding out incidence 10/25/2020 73
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  • 76.
    P = I* DP-prevelance, I-incience, D-duration * All illustrations from Leon Gordis 10/25/2020 76
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    STEPS/PROCEDURES 1. Defining thepopulation to be studied 2. Defining the disease under study 3. Describing the disease by • a. Time • b. Place • c. Person 4. Measurement of disease 5. Comparing with known indices 6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis 10/25/2020 77
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    V. COMPARING WITHKNOWN INDICES • By making comparisons between different populations, and subgroups of the same population, it is possible to arrive at clues to disease aetiology • Eg : comparing smokers and non smokers in the study of Lung cancer 10/25/2020 78
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    Effect of discontinuingfluoridation in Antigo, Wisconsin, November 1960. DMF, decayed, missing, and filled teeth; FL+, during fluoridation; FL-, after fluoridation was discontinued – *Leon Gordis *Leon Gordis10/25/2020 79
  • 80.
    STEPS/PROCEDURES 1. Defining thepopulation to be studied 2. Defining the disease under study 3. Describing the disease by • a. Time • b. Place • c. Person 4. Measurement of disease 5. Comparing with known indices 6. Formulation of an aetiological hypothesis 10/25/2020 80
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    VI. FORMULATION OFHYPOTHESIS • A hypothesis is a supposition, arrived at from observation or reflection FIVE ESSENTIALS OF A HYPOTHESIS 1. The population 2. The specific cause being considered 3. The expected outcome - the disease 4. The dose-response relationship 5. The time-response relationship (*PSE-DT ) 10/25/2020 81
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    EXAMPLE OF AHYPOTHESIS • "Cigarette smoking causes lung cancer" (an incomplete hypothesis) • "The smoking of 30-40 cigarettes per day causes lung cancer in 10 per cent of smokers after 20 years of exposure“ (a complete hypothesis) 10/25/2020 82
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    Uses of Descriptive Epidemiology Dataregarding magnitude of the disease load via morbidity and mortality rates Disease aetiology Provide background data for planning, organizing and evaluating preventive and curative services contribute to research by describing variations in disease occurrence by time, place and person. 10/25/2020 83
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    SUMMARY • Descriptive studiesare the first steps into a new epidemiological research (testing the water) • It gives answers to how many, and 3 “W”s i.e, when,where,who • Three important use of descriptive studies are trend analysis, healthcare planning and hypothesis generation 10/25/2020 84
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    TAKE HOME MESSAGE Ifwe consider ‘Case scenario’ as a CINEMA, The Director will be the Clinician, but the SCREENPLAY of the Cinema will be written by an10/25/2020 85
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    REFERENCES • K. Park;Park’s Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine 24th edition 2017. • Leon Gordis; Epidemiology, Third edition, 2004. • http://www.epidemiology.ch/history/louis.htm • Who AFMC book • Brian McMahon, Epidemiology principles and methods, 1st edition 1970. • Mario schoolman et al,The health and welfare of rural and urban cancer survivors in Missouri – Mario schootman et al.Centre for disease control and prevention 2013 • Kaiser family foundation based on UNAIDS,AIDS info. Accesed on November 2017 • Naco 2015 data on AIDS prevalance in India • M.D.Gupte,Vidya Ramachandran et.al,Epidemiological profile of India:Historical and contemporory perspectives,National institute epidemiology,chennai • Vivek jain text book of social and preventive medicine,8th edition 10/25/2020 86
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