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DescriptiveDescriptive
EpidemiologyEpidemiology
NAVAS VADAKKANGARANAVAS VADAKKANGARA
33rdrd
SEM MSc MICROBIOLOGYSEM MSc MICROBIOLOGY
DEPARTMENT OF LIFESCIENCESDEPARTMENT OF LIFESCIENCES
UNIVERSITY OF CALICUTUNIVERSITY OF CALICUT 1
Definition of Epidemiology*
"The STUDY of the DISTRIBUTION and
DETERMINANTS of HEALTH-
RELATED STATES in specified
POPULATIONS, and the application of this
study to CONTROL of health problems."
*Last, J.M. 1988. A Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2nd ed.
2
Epidemiology: DefinitionEpidemiology: Definition
Dynamic study of the
Determinants
Occurrence
Distribution
Control
Pattern
Of health and disease in a population
3
So, EpidemiologySo, Epidemiology
 Is theIs the basic sciencebasic science of public healthof public health
 Provides insight regarding theProvides insight regarding the naturenature,, causescauses,,
andand extentextent of health and diseaseof health and disease
 Provides information needed toProvides information needed to planplan andand targettarget
resourcesresources appropriatelyappropriately
4
Kinds of EpidemiologyKinds of Epidemiology
 DescriptiveDescriptive
 AnalyticAnalytic
 ExperimentalExperimental
Further studies to determine the
validity of a hypothesis concerning
the occurrence of disease.
Deliberate manipulation of the
cause is predictably followed
by an alteration in the effect
not due to chance
Study of the occurrence and
distribution of disease
5
Descriptive vs. Analytic EpidemiologyDescriptive vs. Analytic Epidemiology
DescriptiveDescriptive
 Used when little isUsed when little is
known about theknown about the
diseasedisease
 Rely on preexistingRely on preexisting
datadata
 Who, where, whenWho, where, when
 Illustrates potentialIllustrates potential
associationsassociations
AnalyticAnalytic
 Used when insight aboutUsed when insight about
various aspects of disease isvarious aspects of disease is
availableavailable
 Rely on development of newRely on development of new
datadata
 WhyWhy
 Evaluates the causality ofEvaluates the causality of
associationsassociations
Both are 6
Descriptive StudiesDescriptive Studies
 First step in an epidemiological studyFirst step in an epidemiological study
 Observing a health related event in a populationObserving a health related event in a population
and identifying its characteristicsand identifying its characteristics
 Relatively inexpensive and less time-consumingRelatively inexpensive and less time-consuming
than analytic studies, they describe,than analytic studies, they describe,
 Patterns of disease occurrence, in terms of:Patterns of disease occurrence, in terms of:
 Who gets sick and/or who does notWho gets sick and/or who does not
 Where rates are highest and lowestWhere rates are highest and lowest
 Temporal patterns of diseaseTemporal patterns of disease
 Data provided are useful for:Data provided are useful for:
 Public health administrators (for allocation of resources)Public health administrators (for allocation of resources)
 Epidemiologists (first step in risk factor determination)Epidemiologists (first step in risk factor determination)
7
Steps in Descriptive StudiesSteps in Descriptive Studies
 Defining population to be studiedDefining population to be studied
 Defining the disease under studyDefining the disease under study
 Describing the disease byDescribing the disease by
 TimeTime
 PlacePlace
 PersonPerson
 Measurement of diseaseMeasurement of disease
 Comparing with known indicesComparing with known indices
 Formulation of an aetiological hypothesisFormulation of an aetiological hypothesis
8
i)Defining The Populationi)Defining The Population
 Descriptive studies are done on populationDescriptive studies are done on population
NOT on individualsNOT on individuals
 Not only in number, but its composition- Age,Not only in number, but its composition- Age,
sex, occupation, culture etcsex, occupation, culture etc
 Can be a whole population in a geographic areaCan be a whole population in a geographic area
or a representing sample like age groups, sexor a representing sample like age groups, sex
 Should be large enough to be meaningful in theShould be large enough to be meaningful in the
studystudy
9
ii)Defining the disease underii)Defining the disease under
studystudy
 Needs a definition that enables both valid andNeeds a definition that enables both valid and
precise meaning to obtain an accurate estimateprecise meaning to obtain an accurate estimate
of the conditionof the condition
 Should be identified and measured in theShould be identified and measured in the
defined population with a degree of accuracydefined population with a degree of accuracy
 An “operational definition” for a particularAn “operational definition” for a particular
disease condition may be needed for a defineddisease condition may be needed for a defined
communitycommunity
10
iii)Describing the diseaseiii)Describing the disease
 The primary objective of the Descriptive study
 Systematic collection and analysis of data
 Study of the occurrence and distribution of
disease in terms of:
 Time
 Place
 Person
11
What are the three categories ofWhat are the three categories of
descriptive epidemiologic clues?descriptive epidemiologic clues?
 □□ Person:Person: WhoWho is getting sick?is getting sick?
 □□ Place:Place: WhereWhere is the sickness occurring?is the sickness occurring?
 □□ Time:Time: WhenWhen is the sickness occurring?is the sickness occurring?
 PPT = person, place, timePPT = person, place, time
12
І-TimeІ-Time
 Pattern of the disease occurrence by its time
distribution
 Short-term fluctuations
 Periodic fluctuations
 Long-termsecular trends
13
aa)-Short term fluctuations)-Short term fluctuations
 The best known is “epidemic”The best known is “epidemic”
 ““The occurrence an illness or other health related-The occurrence an illness or other health related-
events in a community or region clearly in excess ofevents in a community or region clearly in excess of
normal expectancy”normal expectancy”
 The community or region and time period is specifiedThe community or region and time period is specified
preciselyprecisely
14
Types of Short-term fluctuationsTypes of Short-term fluctuations
(Epidemics)(Epidemics)
 Types of epidemics:Types of epidemics:
 Common source epidemicsCommon source epidemics
 Single exposure or point source epidemicsSingle exposure or point source epidemics
 Continuous or multiple exposure epidemicsContinuous or multiple exposure epidemics
 Propagated epidemicsPropagated epidemics
 Person to personPerson to person
 Arthropod vectorArthropod vector
 Animal reservoirAnimal reservoir
 Slow epidemicsSlow epidemics
15
Uses of Epidemic curveUses of Epidemic curve
 A graph of the time distribution of epidemicA graph of the time distribution of epidemic
casescases
 It suggest:It suggest:
 A time relationship with exposure to a suspectedA time relationship with exposure to a suspected
sourcesource
 A cyclical or seasonal pattern suggestive of aA cyclical or seasonal pattern suggestive of a
particular infectionparticular infection
 A common source or a propagated spread of theA common source or a propagated spread of the
diseasedisease
16
l-Common source epidemicsl-Common source epidemics
 The exposure to the disease causing agent isThe exposure to the disease causing agent is
brief and essentially simultaneous, the resultantbrief and essentially simultaneous, the resultant
cases all will develop within one incubationcases all will develop within one incubation
period of the diseaseperiod of the disease
 A point source outbreak curve has usually oneA point source outbreak curve has usually one
peakpeak
17
Common source, point exposure epidemicCommon source, point exposure epidemic
curvecurve
18
Point source, Continuous or multiplePoint source, Continuous or multiple
exposure epidemicsexposure epidemics
 Sometimes, a point source can lead to aSometimes, a point source can lead to a
prolonged , continuous, repeated or intermittentprolonged , continuous, repeated or intermittent
exposure – not necessarily at the same time orexposure – not necessarily at the same time or
placeplace
 A point source may can also be give rise to aA point source may can also be give rise to a
propagated epidemicspropagated epidemics
19
Point source, Continuous or multiple exposurePoint source, Continuous or multiple exposure
epidemic curveepidemic curve
20
2-Propagated Epidemics2-Propagated Epidemics
 It is most often an infectious origin and resultsIt is most often an infectious origin and results
from person to person transmission of the agentfrom person to person transmission of the agent
 It shows a gradual rise and tails off over a muchIt shows a gradual rise and tails off over a much
longer period of timelonger period of time
 Transmission continued until number ofTransmission continued until number of
susceptibles depletedsusceptibles depleted
 The speed of spread depend on Herd immunity,The speed of spread depend on Herd immunity,
opportunities for contact and secondary attack rateopportunities for contact and secondary attack rate
 Eg: Epidemics of Hepatitis A, PolioEg: Epidemics of Hepatitis A, Polio
21
Propagated Epidemics curvePropagated Epidemics curve
22
b)- Periodic fluctuationsb)- Periodic fluctuations
 Seasonal Trends:Seasonal Trends:
 Seasonal variations are a well known characteristic ofSeasonal variations are a well known characteristic of
many communicable diseasesmany communicable diseases
 Eg: Measles is at its heights during early springEg: Measles is at its heights during early spring
 Related to environmental factorsRelated to environmental factors
 Non-infectious cases also have seasonal trend: sunNon-infectious cases also have seasonal trend: sun
stroke, snake bitestroke, snake bite
23
24
 Cyclic Trends:Cyclic Trends:
 Diseases occur in cycles spread over short periods ofDiseases occur in cycles spread over short periods of
timetime
 Eg: measles in pre-vaccination era- major peaksEg: measles in pre-vaccination era- major peaks
every 2-3 years, Rubella in every 6-9 yearsevery 2-3 years, Rubella in every 6-9 years
 Eg: Non-infectious conditions: AutomobileEg: Non-infectious conditions: Automobile
accidents are more in rainy months of yearaccidents are more in rainy months of year
 A knowledge of cyclicity is helpful in defendingA knowledge of cyclicity is helpful in defending
25
C) Long term/Secular TrendC) Long term/Secular Trend
-The long-time trend of disease occurrence
- Progressive increase or decrease
- Several years or decades
- Even if a short term fluctuation may be imposed, it
follow a consistent tendency to change in
particular direction/definite movement in one
direction
- CHD, Lung cancer, Diabetes
- Tuberculosis, Typhoid fever, Polio
26
Trend of Coronary Heart DiseaseTrend of Coronary Heart Disease
27
ІІІІ-Place-Place
 Studies of the geography of the disease isStudies of the geography of the disease is
importantimportant
 Difference in disease patterns betweenDifference in disease patterns between
populations, countries, groups in locationspopulations, countries, groups in locations
 Cultures, standards of living, genetic andCultures, standards of living, genetic and
environmental factors, socio-economic factorsenvironmental factors, socio-economic factors
are influences the prevalence of a diseaseare influences the prevalence of a disease
 The variations based on geographic patterns:The variations based on geographic patterns:
 International, National, Urban-rural, LocalInternational, National, Urban-rural, Local
distributiondistribution
28
 International variations:International variations:
 Eg: cancer exist all over the world, but a markedEg: cancer exist all over the world, but a marked
difference of each cancer in different countriesdifference of each cancer in different countries
 This may help to identify the cause-effectThis may help to identify the cause-effect
relationships of disease and environmental factorsrelationships of disease and environmental factors
 National variations:National variations:
 Disease occurrence may exist within the boundariesDisease occurrence may exist within the boundaries
of countriesof countries
 Endemic goitre, Malaria etc are prevalent in IndiaEndemic goitre, Malaria etc are prevalent in India
and particularly in some partsand particularly in some parts
29
 Rural- Urban variations:Rural- Urban variations:
 Chronic bronchitis, lung cancer, accidents are moreChronic bronchitis, lung cancer, accidents are more
in urban areas than ruralin urban areas than rural
 Skin and zoonotic diseases, soil transmittedSkin and zoonotic diseases, soil transmitted
Helminths diseases are more in rural areasHelminths diseases are more in rural areas
 Local distributions:Local distributions:
 Inner or outer city disease variations are well knownInner or outer city disease variations are well known
 These are usually mapped with the help of “SpotThese are usually mapped with the help of “Spot
maps” or “Shaded maps”maps” or “Shaded maps”
30
Role of spot mapsRole of spot maps
 Inner city or outer city variations can be wellInner city or outer city variations can be well
shownshown
 Areas of low-high frequency, boundaries andAreas of low-high frequency, boundaries and
patterns of distribution can be shownpatterns of distribution can be shown
 If map showing a “clustering” of cases, It mayIf map showing a “clustering” of cases, It may
suggest the source of infection or a commonsuggest the source of infection or a common
risk factorrisk factor
 First used by John snow, in London GoldenFirst used by John snow, in London Golden
square Cholera outbreak (in 1854)square Cholera outbreak (in 1854)
31
32
ІІІ-PersonІІІ-Person
Age Hobbies
Sex Pets
Occupation Travel
Immunization status Personal Habits
Underlying disease Stress
Medication Family unit
Nutritional status School
Socioeconomic factors Genetics
Crowding Religion
33
iv)Measurement of diseaseiv)Measurement of disease
 To get a picture of “Disease load”To get a picture of “Disease load”
 Information in terms of Mortality, Morbidity,Information in terms of Mortality, Morbidity,
DisabilityDisability
 In Descriptive epidemiology, to measureIn Descriptive epidemiology, to measure
magnitude of disease, use 2 methodsmagnitude of disease, use 2 methods
 Cross-sectional studiesCross-sectional studies
 Longitudinal studiesLongitudinal studies
34
Cross-sectional studiesCross-sectional studies
 Single examination of a cross section of aSingle examination of a cross section of a
population at one point in time, and resultpopulation at one point in time, and result
projected on the whole populationprojected on the whole population
 Useful in chronic than in acuteUseful in chronic than in acute
 It gives information about the prevalence of aIt gives information about the prevalence of a
disease and only gives a very little informationdisease and only gives a very little information
 It can provide some insights to a later analyticalIt can provide some insights to a later analytical
study, if any may be conductedstudy, if any may be conducted
35
Longitudinal studiesLongitudinal studies
 Observations are repeated in the same populationObservations are repeated in the same population
over long period of time by means of follow upover long period of time by means of follow up
examinationsexaminations
 It is helpful inIt is helpful in
 To study the natural history of the disease and its futureTo study the natural history of the disease and its future
outcomeoutcome
 For identifying risk factors of the diseaseFor identifying risk factors of the disease
 To find the rate of incidence and frequency ofTo find the rate of incidence and frequency of
occurrence of new cases of diseaseoccurrence of new cases of disease
 It is difficult to conduct and time consumingIt is difficult to conduct and time consuming
36
v)Comparing with known indicesv)Comparing with known indices
 The essence of epidemiology is comparison andThe essence of epidemiology is comparison and
ask questionsask questions
 It is possible to arrive at clues of diseaseIt is possible to arrive at clues of disease
aetiology by comparing between;aetiology by comparing between;
 Different populationsDifferent populations
 Subgroups in the same populationsSubgroups in the same populations
37
vi)Formulation of a Hypothesisvi)Formulation of a Hypothesis
 Its a supposition arrived at from observations orIts a supposition arrived at from observations or
reflection, can be accepted or rejected using thereflection, can be accepted or rejected using the
techniques of analytical epidemiologytechniques of analytical epidemiology
 It should be formulated in way that its elementsIt should be formulated in way that its elements
can be subject to be testedcan be subject to be tested
 An improved formulation of hypothesis alwaysAn improved formulation of hypothesis always
needed data to support the fact it mentionneeded data to support the fact it mention
38
An epidemiologic hypothesisAn epidemiologic hypothesis
must specify:must specify:
 The population- the characteristics of personsThe population- the characteristics of persons
 The specific cause being consideredThe specific cause being considered
 The expected outcome- the diseaseThe expected outcome- the disease
 The dose-response relationship- the amount of the causeThe dose-response relationship- the amount of the cause
needed to lead to a stated incidence of the effectneeded to lead to a stated incidence of the effect
 The time response relationship- The time period elapseThe time response relationship- The time period elapse
between the exposure to the cause and observation of thebetween the exposure to the cause and observation of the
effecteffect
““Cigarette smoking cause lung cancerCigarette smoking cause lung cancer” vs. “” vs. “The smoking ofThe smoking of
30-40 cigarettes per day cause lung cancer in 10 percent of30-40 cigarettes per day cause lung cancer in 10 percent of
smokers after 20 years of exposuresmokers after 20 years of exposure””
39
Sources of informationSources of information
 Census dataCensus data
 Vital statistical recordsVital statistical records
 Employment health examinationsEmployment health examinations
 Clinical records from hospitalsClinical records from hospitals
 National figures on food consumption ,National figures on food consumption ,
medications, health events etcmedications, health events etc
40
Uses of Descriptive EpidemiologyUses of Descriptive Epidemiology
 To provide data regarding the magnitude of diseaseTo provide data regarding the magnitude of disease
loadload
 To evaluate trends in health and disease and allowTo evaluate trends in health and disease and allow
comparisons among countries and subgroups withincomparisons among countries and subgroups within
countriescountries
 To provide a basis for planning, provision andTo provide a basis for planning, provision and
evaluation of servicesevaluation of services
 To identify problems to be studied by analytic methodsTo identify problems to be studied by analytic methods
and to test hypotheses related to those problemsand to test hypotheses related to those problems
 To provide clues to disease aetiology and help in theTo provide clues to disease aetiology and help in the
formulation of aetiological hypothesisformulation of aetiological hypothesis
41
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
42

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Descriptive epidemiology

  • 1. DescriptiveDescriptive EpidemiologyEpidemiology NAVAS VADAKKANGARANAVAS VADAKKANGARA 33rdrd SEM MSc MICROBIOLOGYSEM MSc MICROBIOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF LIFESCIENCESDEPARTMENT OF LIFESCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF CALICUTUNIVERSITY OF CALICUT 1
  • 2. Definition of Epidemiology* "The STUDY of the DISTRIBUTION and DETERMINANTS of HEALTH- RELATED STATES in specified POPULATIONS, and the application of this study to CONTROL of health problems." *Last, J.M. 1988. A Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2nd ed. 2
  • 3. Epidemiology: DefinitionEpidemiology: Definition Dynamic study of the Determinants Occurrence Distribution Control Pattern Of health and disease in a population 3
  • 4. So, EpidemiologySo, Epidemiology  Is theIs the basic sciencebasic science of public healthof public health  Provides insight regarding theProvides insight regarding the naturenature,, causescauses,, andand extentextent of health and diseaseof health and disease  Provides information needed toProvides information needed to planplan andand targettarget resourcesresources appropriatelyappropriately 4
  • 5. Kinds of EpidemiologyKinds of Epidemiology  DescriptiveDescriptive  AnalyticAnalytic  ExperimentalExperimental Further studies to determine the validity of a hypothesis concerning the occurrence of disease. Deliberate manipulation of the cause is predictably followed by an alteration in the effect not due to chance Study of the occurrence and distribution of disease 5
  • 6. Descriptive vs. Analytic EpidemiologyDescriptive vs. Analytic Epidemiology DescriptiveDescriptive  Used when little isUsed when little is known about theknown about the diseasedisease  Rely on preexistingRely on preexisting datadata  Who, where, whenWho, where, when  Illustrates potentialIllustrates potential associationsassociations AnalyticAnalytic  Used when insight aboutUsed when insight about various aspects of disease isvarious aspects of disease is availableavailable  Rely on development of newRely on development of new datadata  WhyWhy  Evaluates the causality ofEvaluates the causality of associationsassociations Both are 6
  • 7. Descriptive StudiesDescriptive Studies  First step in an epidemiological studyFirst step in an epidemiological study  Observing a health related event in a populationObserving a health related event in a population and identifying its characteristicsand identifying its characteristics  Relatively inexpensive and less time-consumingRelatively inexpensive and less time-consuming than analytic studies, they describe,than analytic studies, they describe,  Patterns of disease occurrence, in terms of:Patterns of disease occurrence, in terms of:  Who gets sick and/or who does notWho gets sick and/or who does not  Where rates are highest and lowestWhere rates are highest and lowest  Temporal patterns of diseaseTemporal patterns of disease  Data provided are useful for:Data provided are useful for:  Public health administrators (for allocation of resources)Public health administrators (for allocation of resources)  Epidemiologists (first step in risk factor determination)Epidemiologists (first step in risk factor determination) 7
  • 8. Steps in Descriptive StudiesSteps in Descriptive Studies  Defining population to be studiedDefining population to be studied  Defining the disease under studyDefining the disease under study  Describing the disease byDescribing the disease by  TimeTime  PlacePlace  PersonPerson  Measurement of diseaseMeasurement of disease  Comparing with known indicesComparing with known indices  Formulation of an aetiological hypothesisFormulation of an aetiological hypothesis 8
  • 9. i)Defining The Populationi)Defining The Population  Descriptive studies are done on populationDescriptive studies are done on population NOT on individualsNOT on individuals  Not only in number, but its composition- Age,Not only in number, but its composition- Age, sex, occupation, culture etcsex, occupation, culture etc  Can be a whole population in a geographic areaCan be a whole population in a geographic area or a representing sample like age groups, sexor a representing sample like age groups, sex  Should be large enough to be meaningful in theShould be large enough to be meaningful in the studystudy 9
  • 10. ii)Defining the disease underii)Defining the disease under studystudy  Needs a definition that enables both valid andNeeds a definition that enables both valid and precise meaning to obtain an accurate estimateprecise meaning to obtain an accurate estimate of the conditionof the condition  Should be identified and measured in theShould be identified and measured in the defined population with a degree of accuracydefined population with a degree of accuracy  An “operational definition” for a particularAn “operational definition” for a particular disease condition may be needed for a defineddisease condition may be needed for a defined communitycommunity 10
  • 11. iii)Describing the diseaseiii)Describing the disease  The primary objective of the Descriptive study  Systematic collection and analysis of data  Study of the occurrence and distribution of disease in terms of:  Time  Place  Person 11
  • 12. What are the three categories ofWhat are the three categories of descriptive epidemiologic clues?descriptive epidemiologic clues?  □□ Person:Person: WhoWho is getting sick?is getting sick?  □□ Place:Place: WhereWhere is the sickness occurring?is the sickness occurring?  □□ Time:Time: WhenWhen is the sickness occurring?is the sickness occurring?  PPT = person, place, timePPT = person, place, time 12
  • 13. І-TimeІ-Time  Pattern of the disease occurrence by its time distribution  Short-term fluctuations  Periodic fluctuations  Long-termsecular trends 13
  • 14. aa)-Short term fluctuations)-Short term fluctuations  The best known is “epidemic”The best known is “epidemic”  ““The occurrence an illness or other health related-The occurrence an illness or other health related- events in a community or region clearly in excess ofevents in a community or region clearly in excess of normal expectancy”normal expectancy”  The community or region and time period is specifiedThe community or region and time period is specified preciselyprecisely 14
  • 15. Types of Short-term fluctuationsTypes of Short-term fluctuations (Epidemics)(Epidemics)  Types of epidemics:Types of epidemics:  Common source epidemicsCommon source epidemics  Single exposure or point source epidemicsSingle exposure or point source epidemics  Continuous or multiple exposure epidemicsContinuous or multiple exposure epidemics  Propagated epidemicsPropagated epidemics  Person to personPerson to person  Arthropod vectorArthropod vector  Animal reservoirAnimal reservoir  Slow epidemicsSlow epidemics 15
  • 16. Uses of Epidemic curveUses of Epidemic curve  A graph of the time distribution of epidemicA graph of the time distribution of epidemic casescases  It suggest:It suggest:  A time relationship with exposure to a suspectedA time relationship with exposure to a suspected sourcesource  A cyclical or seasonal pattern suggestive of aA cyclical or seasonal pattern suggestive of a particular infectionparticular infection  A common source or a propagated spread of theA common source or a propagated spread of the diseasedisease 16
  • 17. l-Common source epidemicsl-Common source epidemics  The exposure to the disease causing agent isThe exposure to the disease causing agent is brief and essentially simultaneous, the resultantbrief and essentially simultaneous, the resultant cases all will develop within one incubationcases all will develop within one incubation period of the diseaseperiod of the disease  A point source outbreak curve has usually oneA point source outbreak curve has usually one peakpeak 17
  • 18. Common source, point exposure epidemicCommon source, point exposure epidemic curvecurve 18
  • 19. Point source, Continuous or multiplePoint source, Continuous or multiple exposure epidemicsexposure epidemics  Sometimes, a point source can lead to aSometimes, a point source can lead to a prolonged , continuous, repeated or intermittentprolonged , continuous, repeated or intermittent exposure – not necessarily at the same time orexposure – not necessarily at the same time or placeplace  A point source may can also be give rise to aA point source may can also be give rise to a propagated epidemicspropagated epidemics 19
  • 20. Point source, Continuous or multiple exposurePoint source, Continuous or multiple exposure epidemic curveepidemic curve 20
  • 21. 2-Propagated Epidemics2-Propagated Epidemics  It is most often an infectious origin and resultsIt is most often an infectious origin and results from person to person transmission of the agentfrom person to person transmission of the agent  It shows a gradual rise and tails off over a muchIt shows a gradual rise and tails off over a much longer period of timelonger period of time  Transmission continued until number ofTransmission continued until number of susceptibles depletedsusceptibles depleted  The speed of spread depend on Herd immunity,The speed of spread depend on Herd immunity, opportunities for contact and secondary attack rateopportunities for contact and secondary attack rate  Eg: Epidemics of Hepatitis A, PolioEg: Epidemics of Hepatitis A, Polio 21
  • 23. b)- Periodic fluctuationsb)- Periodic fluctuations  Seasonal Trends:Seasonal Trends:  Seasonal variations are a well known characteristic ofSeasonal variations are a well known characteristic of many communicable diseasesmany communicable diseases  Eg: Measles is at its heights during early springEg: Measles is at its heights during early spring  Related to environmental factorsRelated to environmental factors  Non-infectious cases also have seasonal trend: sunNon-infectious cases also have seasonal trend: sun stroke, snake bitestroke, snake bite 23
  • 24. 24
  • 25.  Cyclic Trends:Cyclic Trends:  Diseases occur in cycles spread over short periods ofDiseases occur in cycles spread over short periods of timetime  Eg: measles in pre-vaccination era- major peaksEg: measles in pre-vaccination era- major peaks every 2-3 years, Rubella in every 6-9 yearsevery 2-3 years, Rubella in every 6-9 years  Eg: Non-infectious conditions: AutomobileEg: Non-infectious conditions: Automobile accidents are more in rainy months of yearaccidents are more in rainy months of year  A knowledge of cyclicity is helpful in defendingA knowledge of cyclicity is helpful in defending 25
  • 26. C) Long term/Secular TrendC) Long term/Secular Trend -The long-time trend of disease occurrence - Progressive increase or decrease - Several years or decades - Even if a short term fluctuation may be imposed, it follow a consistent tendency to change in particular direction/definite movement in one direction - CHD, Lung cancer, Diabetes - Tuberculosis, Typhoid fever, Polio 26
  • 27. Trend of Coronary Heart DiseaseTrend of Coronary Heart Disease 27
  • 28. ІІІІ-Place-Place  Studies of the geography of the disease isStudies of the geography of the disease is importantimportant  Difference in disease patterns betweenDifference in disease patterns between populations, countries, groups in locationspopulations, countries, groups in locations  Cultures, standards of living, genetic andCultures, standards of living, genetic and environmental factors, socio-economic factorsenvironmental factors, socio-economic factors are influences the prevalence of a diseaseare influences the prevalence of a disease  The variations based on geographic patterns:The variations based on geographic patterns:  International, National, Urban-rural, LocalInternational, National, Urban-rural, Local distributiondistribution 28
  • 29.  International variations:International variations:  Eg: cancer exist all over the world, but a markedEg: cancer exist all over the world, but a marked difference of each cancer in different countriesdifference of each cancer in different countries  This may help to identify the cause-effectThis may help to identify the cause-effect relationships of disease and environmental factorsrelationships of disease and environmental factors  National variations:National variations:  Disease occurrence may exist within the boundariesDisease occurrence may exist within the boundaries of countriesof countries  Endemic goitre, Malaria etc are prevalent in IndiaEndemic goitre, Malaria etc are prevalent in India and particularly in some partsand particularly in some parts 29
  • 30.  Rural- Urban variations:Rural- Urban variations:  Chronic bronchitis, lung cancer, accidents are moreChronic bronchitis, lung cancer, accidents are more in urban areas than ruralin urban areas than rural  Skin and zoonotic diseases, soil transmittedSkin and zoonotic diseases, soil transmitted Helminths diseases are more in rural areasHelminths diseases are more in rural areas  Local distributions:Local distributions:  Inner or outer city disease variations are well knownInner or outer city disease variations are well known  These are usually mapped with the help of “SpotThese are usually mapped with the help of “Spot maps” or “Shaded maps”maps” or “Shaded maps” 30
  • 31. Role of spot mapsRole of spot maps  Inner city or outer city variations can be wellInner city or outer city variations can be well shownshown  Areas of low-high frequency, boundaries andAreas of low-high frequency, boundaries and patterns of distribution can be shownpatterns of distribution can be shown  If map showing a “clustering” of cases, It mayIf map showing a “clustering” of cases, It may suggest the source of infection or a commonsuggest the source of infection or a common risk factorrisk factor  First used by John snow, in London GoldenFirst used by John snow, in London Golden square Cholera outbreak (in 1854)square Cholera outbreak (in 1854) 31
  • 32. 32
  • 33. ІІІ-PersonІІІ-Person Age Hobbies Sex Pets Occupation Travel Immunization status Personal Habits Underlying disease Stress Medication Family unit Nutritional status School Socioeconomic factors Genetics Crowding Religion 33
  • 34. iv)Measurement of diseaseiv)Measurement of disease  To get a picture of “Disease load”To get a picture of “Disease load”  Information in terms of Mortality, Morbidity,Information in terms of Mortality, Morbidity, DisabilityDisability  In Descriptive epidemiology, to measureIn Descriptive epidemiology, to measure magnitude of disease, use 2 methodsmagnitude of disease, use 2 methods  Cross-sectional studiesCross-sectional studies  Longitudinal studiesLongitudinal studies 34
  • 35. Cross-sectional studiesCross-sectional studies  Single examination of a cross section of aSingle examination of a cross section of a population at one point in time, and resultpopulation at one point in time, and result projected on the whole populationprojected on the whole population  Useful in chronic than in acuteUseful in chronic than in acute  It gives information about the prevalence of aIt gives information about the prevalence of a disease and only gives a very little informationdisease and only gives a very little information  It can provide some insights to a later analyticalIt can provide some insights to a later analytical study, if any may be conductedstudy, if any may be conducted 35
  • 36. Longitudinal studiesLongitudinal studies  Observations are repeated in the same populationObservations are repeated in the same population over long period of time by means of follow upover long period of time by means of follow up examinationsexaminations  It is helpful inIt is helpful in  To study the natural history of the disease and its futureTo study the natural history of the disease and its future outcomeoutcome  For identifying risk factors of the diseaseFor identifying risk factors of the disease  To find the rate of incidence and frequency ofTo find the rate of incidence and frequency of occurrence of new cases of diseaseoccurrence of new cases of disease  It is difficult to conduct and time consumingIt is difficult to conduct and time consuming 36
  • 37. v)Comparing with known indicesv)Comparing with known indices  The essence of epidemiology is comparison andThe essence of epidemiology is comparison and ask questionsask questions  It is possible to arrive at clues of diseaseIt is possible to arrive at clues of disease aetiology by comparing between;aetiology by comparing between;  Different populationsDifferent populations  Subgroups in the same populationsSubgroups in the same populations 37
  • 38. vi)Formulation of a Hypothesisvi)Formulation of a Hypothesis  Its a supposition arrived at from observations orIts a supposition arrived at from observations or reflection, can be accepted or rejected using thereflection, can be accepted or rejected using the techniques of analytical epidemiologytechniques of analytical epidemiology  It should be formulated in way that its elementsIt should be formulated in way that its elements can be subject to be testedcan be subject to be tested  An improved formulation of hypothesis alwaysAn improved formulation of hypothesis always needed data to support the fact it mentionneeded data to support the fact it mention 38
  • 39. An epidemiologic hypothesisAn epidemiologic hypothesis must specify:must specify:  The population- the characteristics of personsThe population- the characteristics of persons  The specific cause being consideredThe specific cause being considered  The expected outcome- the diseaseThe expected outcome- the disease  The dose-response relationship- the amount of the causeThe dose-response relationship- the amount of the cause needed to lead to a stated incidence of the effectneeded to lead to a stated incidence of the effect  The time response relationship- The time period elapseThe time response relationship- The time period elapse between the exposure to the cause and observation of thebetween the exposure to the cause and observation of the effecteffect ““Cigarette smoking cause lung cancerCigarette smoking cause lung cancer” vs. “” vs. “The smoking ofThe smoking of 30-40 cigarettes per day cause lung cancer in 10 percent of30-40 cigarettes per day cause lung cancer in 10 percent of smokers after 20 years of exposuresmokers after 20 years of exposure”” 39
  • 40. Sources of informationSources of information  Census dataCensus data  Vital statistical recordsVital statistical records  Employment health examinationsEmployment health examinations  Clinical records from hospitalsClinical records from hospitals  National figures on food consumption ,National figures on food consumption , medications, health events etcmedications, health events etc 40
  • 41. Uses of Descriptive EpidemiologyUses of Descriptive Epidemiology  To provide data regarding the magnitude of diseaseTo provide data regarding the magnitude of disease loadload  To evaluate trends in health and disease and allowTo evaluate trends in health and disease and allow comparisons among countries and subgroups withincomparisons among countries and subgroups within countriescountries  To provide a basis for planning, provision andTo provide a basis for planning, provision and evaluation of servicesevaluation of services  To identify problems to be studied by analytic methodsTo identify problems to be studied by analytic methods and to test hypotheses related to those problemsand to test hypotheses related to those problems  To provide clues to disease aetiology and help in theTo provide clues to disease aetiology and help in the formulation of aetiological hypothesisformulation of aetiological hypothesis 41