The document outlines the decision making process in organizations. It discusses (1) recognizing and defining problems, identifying alternatives, choosing a preferred course of action, implementing it, and evaluating results; (2) programmed vs nonprogrammed and major vs minor decisions; (3) conditions that can lead to decision failure like risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity; (4) rational perspectives on decision making; (5) the six step managerial decision making process of recognizing a need, generating alternatives, evaluating them, choosing, implementing, and learning from feedback. It also covers individual, group, organizational and metaorganizational decision making as well as methods for group decision making.
Decision Making and Information SystemsAriful Saimon
Premier University
[B.B.A]
Submitted To : Lecturer MS. Samima Parvez
Subject : Decision Making and Information
Semester: 5th Section: “A” Batch :22nd
Group Name: D’5
E-mail : Saimonchy20@gmail.com
Decision Making and Information SystemsAriful Saimon
Premier University
[B.B.A]
Submitted To : Lecturer MS. Samima Parvez
Subject : Decision Making and Information
Semester: 5th Section: “A” Batch :22nd
Group Name: D’5
E-mail : Saimonchy20@gmail.com
Decision making, Importance of
Decision-Making, Characteristics of
Decision-Making, Essentials for effective
Decision-Making, Types/ categories of Problems and Decisions, TYPES OF BUSINESS DECISIONS, Open decision making System, Decision Making Environment, The Classical Model of decision making, Decision making process, Decision Making Style
Decision theory as the name would imply is concerned with the process of making decisions. The extension to statistical decision theory includes decision making in the presence of statistical knowledge which provides some information where there is uncertainty. The elements of decision theory are quite logical and even perhaps intuitive. The classical approach to decision theory facilitates the use of sample information in making inferences about the unknown quantities. Other relevant information includes that of the possible consequences which is quantified by loss and the prior information which arises from statistical investigation. The use of Bayesian analysis in statistical decision theory is natural. Their unification provides a foundational framework for building and solving decision problems. The basic ideas of decision theory and of decision theoretic methods lend themselves to a variety of applications and computational and analytic advances.
5.DECISION MAKING PROCESS :-
Recognizing & defining the situation
Identifying the alternatives
Evaluating the alternatives
Apply the model
Selecting the best alternatives
Conduct a sensitivity of the solution
Implementing the chosen alternatives
Following up & evaluating the result
6.TYPE OF DECISION MAKING ENVIRONMENT
Decision making under certainty
Decision making under uncertainty
Decision making under risk
23.DECISION TREE :
Instances describable by attribute-value pairs
e.g Humidity: High, Normal
Target function is discrete valued
e.g Play tennis; Yes, No
Disjunctive hypothesis may be required
e.g Outlook=Sunny Wind=Weak
Possibly noisy training data
Missing attribute values
Application Examples:
Medical diagnosis
Credit risk analysis
Object classification for robot manipulator (Tan 1993)
25.Bayesian analysis
26.Utility theory :
Step for determine the utility for money :
Develop a payoff table using monetary values
Identify the best and worst payoff value
For every other monetary value in the original payoff table
Convert the payoff table from monetary value to calculate utility value.
Apply the expected utility criterion to the utility table and select the decision alternative with the best expected utility.
The rational model is the first attempt to know the decision-making process.
As per the rational decision-making model, the decision-maker has full or perfect information about alternatives and he devotes sufficient time to understand the situation and make decisions.
A rational decision-making model is a multi-step process for making choices between various alternatives. The process of rational decision-making favors logic, objectivity, & analysis over subjectivity and insight.
Life is about choices. We deal with choices in our personal lives everyday. Most of us are guided by such questions as, “Is this the correct thing to do? Is this the right decision to make?” We are guided by our own sense of morality, i.e. the difference between right and wrong.
Ethics, ethical behaviour, and the culture of ethics starts with the leadership of an organization. Associates in an organization emulate the behaviour of the leaders of the organization. So, if the leaders behave unethically, then, it stands to reason that subordinates will, also.
Decision making, Importance of
Decision-Making, Characteristics of
Decision-Making, Essentials for effective
Decision-Making, Types/ categories of Problems and Decisions, TYPES OF BUSINESS DECISIONS, Open decision making System, Decision Making Environment, The Classical Model of decision making, Decision making process, Decision Making Style
Decision theory as the name would imply is concerned with the process of making decisions. The extension to statistical decision theory includes decision making in the presence of statistical knowledge which provides some information where there is uncertainty. The elements of decision theory are quite logical and even perhaps intuitive. The classical approach to decision theory facilitates the use of sample information in making inferences about the unknown quantities. Other relevant information includes that of the possible consequences which is quantified by loss and the prior information which arises from statistical investigation. The use of Bayesian analysis in statistical decision theory is natural. Their unification provides a foundational framework for building and solving decision problems. The basic ideas of decision theory and of decision theoretic methods lend themselves to a variety of applications and computational and analytic advances.
5.DECISION MAKING PROCESS :-
Recognizing & defining the situation
Identifying the alternatives
Evaluating the alternatives
Apply the model
Selecting the best alternatives
Conduct a sensitivity of the solution
Implementing the chosen alternatives
Following up & evaluating the result
6.TYPE OF DECISION MAKING ENVIRONMENT
Decision making under certainty
Decision making under uncertainty
Decision making under risk
23.DECISION TREE :
Instances describable by attribute-value pairs
e.g Humidity: High, Normal
Target function is discrete valued
e.g Play tennis; Yes, No
Disjunctive hypothesis may be required
e.g Outlook=Sunny Wind=Weak
Possibly noisy training data
Missing attribute values
Application Examples:
Medical diagnosis
Credit risk analysis
Object classification for robot manipulator (Tan 1993)
25.Bayesian analysis
26.Utility theory :
Step for determine the utility for money :
Develop a payoff table using monetary values
Identify the best and worst payoff value
For every other monetary value in the original payoff table
Convert the payoff table from monetary value to calculate utility value.
Apply the expected utility criterion to the utility table and select the decision alternative with the best expected utility.
The rational model is the first attempt to know the decision-making process.
As per the rational decision-making model, the decision-maker has full or perfect information about alternatives and he devotes sufficient time to understand the situation and make decisions.
A rational decision-making model is a multi-step process for making choices between various alternatives. The process of rational decision-making favors logic, objectivity, & analysis over subjectivity and insight.
Life is about choices. We deal with choices in our personal lives everyday. Most of us are guided by such questions as, “Is this the correct thing to do? Is this the right decision to make?” We are guided by our own sense of morality, i.e. the difference between right and wrong.
Ethics, ethical behaviour, and the culture of ethics starts with the leadership of an organization. Associates in an organization emulate the behaviour of the leaders of the organization. So, if the leaders behave unethically, then, it stands to reason that subordinates will, also.
Organizational Planning And Goal Setting MGT 201 Helpful Slides For Management Students Of Different Universities In Karachi And All Over Pakistan And World
“Decision-making involves the selection of a course of action from among two or more possible alternatives in order to arrive at a solution for a given problem”
2. Decision making.
– The process of choosing a course of action for
dealing with a problem or opportunity.
2
3. How are decisions made
in organizations?
Steps in systematic decision making.
– Recognize and define the problem or opportunity.
– Identify and analyze alternative courses of action, and
estimate their effects on the problem or opportunity.
– Choose a preferred course of action.
– Implement the preferred course of action.
– Evaluate the results and follow up as necessary.
3
5. Types of Decisions.
1. Programmed Vs Nonprogrammed decisions
– Programmed decisions.
• Involve routine problems that arise regularly and can be addressed through
standard responses.
– Nonprogrammed decisions.
• Involve nonroutine problems that require solutions specifically tailored to
the situation at hand
2. Major Vs Minor decisions
3. Individual Vs Group decisions
5
6. Conditions that Affect the Possibility of
Decision Failure
Organizational
Problem
Low Possibility of Failure High
Certainty Risk Uncertainty Ambiguity
Programmed Nonprogrammed
Decisions Decisions
Problem
Solution
6
8. Six Steps in the Managerial
Decision Making Process
8
9. Decision Making Steps
Step 1. Recognize Need for a Decision
– Sparked by an event such as environment changes.
• Managers must first realize that a decision must be made.
Step 2. Generate Alternatives
– Managers must develop feasible alternative courses of
action.
• If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor.
• It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to
look for new ideas.
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10. Decision Making Steps
Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives
– What are the advantages and disadvantages
of each alternative?
– Managers should specify criteria, then
evaluate.
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12. Decision Making Steps
Step 4. Choose Among Alternatives
– Rank the various alternatives and make a decision
– Managers must be sure all the information
available is brought to bear on the problem or
issue at hand
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13. Decision Making Steps
Step 5. Implement Chosen Alternative
– Managers must now carry out the alternative.
– Often a decision is made and not implemented.
Step 6. Learn From Feedback
– Managers should consider what went right and wrong
with the decision and learn for the future.
– Without feedback, managers do not learn from
experience and will repeat the same mistake over.
13
15. The Scope of Decision Making
1. Individual decision making
2. Group decision making
3. Organizational decision making
4. Metaorganizational decision
making
15
17. Methods of Group Decision Making
• Nominal Group Technique
– Members silently and individually generate ideas
– They present without discussion
– Discussion and clarification
– Silently rate
– Group decision is the pooled outcome of votes
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