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VISHESH AGRAWAL
Demand forecasting involves predicting the future demand for a
good.
The demand forecast for a good may involve :
1. Aggregate demand for the good.
2. An individual firm’s demand for the good.
3. Total demand of the industry for the good .
A. Consumer survey method
Consumer survey is a direct method of obtaining relevant
information relating to future demand for different goods. The
forecasts are generally for the short term.
Surveys can be of three types:
Direct Interview
A selected group of users or potential consumers are asked
directly about their future plans for the good.
Complete enumeration
All the consumers of the product are surveyed regarding their preferences about the
product and their future plans if there is an increase in the price of the product.
Sample survey
Only a few consumers are selected from the relevant market for the good. The
consumers may be selected on a random basis or through a sampling method
B. EXPERT OPINION METHOD
In this method, the opinions of experts are taken to forecast the demand for the product
.The experts may be from the firm itself; for example, opinion of the sales managers,
who possess sufficient knowledge about the market, may be taken.
Surveys can be of three types :
Survey of the sales force
A firm may sometimes seek the opinion of its sales representatives
in assessing the future demand for the good.
The Delphi technique
In this technique, the opinion of a group of isolated experts is
taken about the future demand for the product.
Market experiments method
It is one of the most widely used and influential forecasting
technique where opinions and intution of management is utilised.
It can be done in two ways -
A. CONTROLLED EXPERIMENT METHOD
IN THIS METHOD, A SAMPLE OF CONSUMERS FROM THE TARGETED GROUP IS REQUESTED
TO VISIT A PARTICULAR SHOP OF THE FIRM WHERE DIFFERENT BRANDS OF A PARTICULAR
GOOD ARE ON SALE.
THE CONSUMERS ARE GIVEN RELEVANT INFORMATION ABOUT THE DIFFERENT BRANDS.
B. TEST MARKETING METHOD
 In test marketing, a test area is selected that represents the market where the firm has
decided to launch the new good.
 This test area may be in the form of a few towns or cities.
DEAMAND FORCASTING

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DEAMAND FORCASTING

  • 2. Demand forecasting involves predicting the future demand for a good. The demand forecast for a good may involve : 1. Aggregate demand for the good. 2. An individual firm’s demand for the good. 3. Total demand of the industry for the good .
  • 3.
  • 4. A. Consumer survey method Consumer survey is a direct method of obtaining relevant information relating to future demand for different goods. The forecasts are generally for the short term. Surveys can be of three types: Direct Interview A selected group of users or potential consumers are asked directly about their future plans for the good.
  • 5. Complete enumeration All the consumers of the product are surveyed regarding their preferences about the product and their future plans if there is an increase in the price of the product. Sample survey Only a few consumers are selected from the relevant market for the good. The consumers may be selected on a random basis or through a sampling method B. EXPERT OPINION METHOD In this method, the opinions of experts are taken to forecast the demand for the product .The experts may be from the firm itself; for example, opinion of the sales managers, who possess sufficient knowledge about the market, may be taken. Surveys can be of three types :
  • 6. Survey of the sales force A firm may sometimes seek the opinion of its sales representatives in assessing the future demand for the good. The Delphi technique In this technique, the opinion of a group of isolated experts is taken about the future demand for the product. Market experiments method It is one of the most widely used and influential forecasting technique where opinions and intution of management is utilised. It can be done in two ways -
  • 7. A. CONTROLLED EXPERIMENT METHOD IN THIS METHOD, A SAMPLE OF CONSUMERS FROM THE TARGETED GROUP IS REQUESTED TO VISIT A PARTICULAR SHOP OF THE FIRM WHERE DIFFERENT BRANDS OF A PARTICULAR GOOD ARE ON SALE. THE CONSUMERS ARE GIVEN RELEVANT INFORMATION ABOUT THE DIFFERENT BRANDS. B. TEST MARKETING METHOD  In test marketing, a test area is selected that represents the market where the firm has decided to launch the new good.  This test area may be in the form of a few towns or cities.