The Indian rupee dropped to a one-month low against the US dollar due to month-end dollar demand from importers and outflows of foreign funds from the market. The US pending home sales plunged by 2.5% in November and the UK's BBA mortgage approvals fell in November, weakening global market sentiment. Technical indicators suggest buying the USDINR pair and selling the GBPINR pair.

1. Currency Highlights
29th
Dec’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee dropped to 1 month low at 68.24 on Wednesday
 US Pending Home Sales plunged by 2.5 percent in November
 UK’s BBA Mortgage Approvals fell to 40,700 in November
 Euro plunged around 0.4 percent in yesterday’s trading session
Indian Rupee came under pressure for second consecutive day to
drop to one month low and depreciated around 18 paise to end at
68.24 against the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency depreci-
ated on account of month end dollar demand from importers and
bankers. Further, constant outflow of foreign funds from markets
along with foreign institutional selling kept pressure on the curren-
cy.
Since 8th Nov’16, the foreign institutional investors have sold a
combined of $10 billion in domestic equity and debt markets. So
far this year, foreign institutional investors have bought $3.18 bil-
lion in equities and sold $6.73 billion in debt.
Moreover, weak domestic market sentiments kept the currency in negative territory. Indian Rupee moved in the range of
68.155 to 68.255 in Wednesday’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at 68.22
and Euro stood at 71.45 as on 28th Dec’16.
For the month of December 2016, FII outflows in equities totaled at Rs.6988.61 crores ($1028.39 million) as on 28th December
2016. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.21753.86 crores ($3343.42 million) as on 28th December 2016.
US Dollar Index gained around 0.22 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market senti-
ments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a
result of unfavorable economic data from the country.
US Pending Home Sales plunged by 2.5 percent in November as against a rise of 0.1 percent a month ago.
Euro against dollar dropped around 0.4 percent on Wednesday on account of weak global market sentiments. Further, strong-
er dollar kept pressure on the currency.
The Sterling Pound declined around 0.4 percent in Wednesday’s trade as a result of strength in the dollar index. Further, weak
global market sentiments along with unfavourable economic data from the country kept the currency in negative territory.
British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals dropped marginally to 40,700 in November as against a rise of 40,800
in October.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.14 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in
global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 103.33 103.02 0.31 0.30
USD/INR(Spot) 68.12 67.97 0.15 0.22
USD/INR(NseJan) 68.42 68.26 0.16 0.23
EUR/INR(Spot) 71.02 71.07 (0.05) (0.07)
EUR/INR(NseJan) 71.45 71.45 0.00 0.00
GBP/INR(Spot) 83.42 83.39 0.03 0.04
GBP/INR(NseJan) 83.83 83.87 (0.04) (0.05)
JPY/INR(NseJan) 58.29 58.33 (0.04) (0.07)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, it has been observed that the JPYINR has
completed a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern at 57.55 levels
the coordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 56 to 67.90,AB
of the leg completed at 63.30 (i.e.38.20% of XA leg.), BC
of the leg completed at 67.50 (i.e. near 88.60% of AB leg)
and CD of the leg completed at 57.55 level. (i.e. 88% of
XA and 224% of BC leg).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading in
oversold zone which indicates up side momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown posi-
tive crossover which suggest possibilities of rebound in
the prices on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR buy in the
range of 58.15 with SL of 57.85 for target of 58.65 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its horizontal channel
at 67.50 levels on daily chart and price has retested its
breakout trend line at 67.40 levels.
On daily chart price has taken support of its 61.80% Fib-
onacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 68.22 with SL of 67.90 for target of 68.80.
Currency Highlights
29th
Dec’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 68.08 68.23 68.33 68.38 68.48 68.53 68.68
JPYINR 57.90 58.11 58.20 58.32 58.41 58.53 58.74

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
29th
Dec’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has taken support of its horizontal trend line
at 70.60 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has also
taken support of its falling trend line at 70.70 levels on
daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 15 HEMA on hourly
chart, which suggest further bullishness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI has moved up
form its oversold zone, which suggest bullishness in the
prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on 4 hourly chart, which support our bullish view
to the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 72.10 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its rising channel
pattern at 85 levels on daily chart. The pair has been
facing resistance of its falling trend line at 86.10 levels
on daily chart. The prices have been facing resistance of
its horizontal line at 86 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 50 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend looks negative.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive cross over on daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further weakness in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
82.70 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 82.76 83.35 83.59 83.94 84.18 84.53 85.12
EURINR 70.80 71.10 71.27 71.40 71.57 71.70 72.00

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
29th
Dec’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
29.12.16 07:00 PM Unemployment Claims 275K 277K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
29.12.16 07:00 PM Goods Trade Balance -61.9B -61.5B Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
29.12.16 09:30 PM Crude Oil Inventories 2.3M

5. Currency Highlights
29th
Dec’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.12.29 08:42:05 +05'30'