Stakeholder group presentation June 3rd - exploring the key challenges for colleges, polytechnics, and institutes.

1. Our Future –
Your
Challenge
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD
Futures Leadership for Change

2. Who Am I
• Teaching at the university / college level since
1973
• Psychologist by training but have taught in both
statistics programs and in business schools
• Now working on strategic foresight as a teacher at
the University of Toronto (OISE) and University of
Alberta and Athabasca University (MBA)
• Created the world’s first fully online MBA in 1993-4
and have been building and working with
technology enabled learning experiences ever
since
• Worked for 15 years at the Open University (UK)
and for 14 years at Athabasca University
• Consulting in New Zealand, Dubai, Chile,
Paraguay, Ontario, Alberta and for the
Commonwealth of Learning on aspects of the
future of higher education…

3. Let Us Understand Our Context
• Government deficits / debt within manageable range, but serious –
budgets will be set to zero and smart governments will seize this moment to
rationalize – e.g. UK, US, parts of Canada (Alberta).
• Work for many will be very problematic – global recession,
hospitality/tourism/airlines/retail especially hard hit. Big demand for reskilling,
upskilling. Unemployment at 14-15% for some time.
• More rapid technology adoption – replacing people with machines, AI
systems, drone delivery, driverless trucks – 20% of jobs will be impacted within
3-4 years and in some sectors, this will be faster.
• Some rethinking of healthcare – especially senior care and issues about
quality of the skills available, leading to questions about education / training /
certification.
• Guaranteed Basic Income / 4 Day Week – the New Zealand model – under
active consideration by the Federal Government of Canada.

4. Immediate Implications
• Blended Learning Here to Stay – with college and polytechnics largely online
till 2021 its time to invest in professional development to enable this work to be
done well and on the infrastructure to enable it to be done well which also
protects privacy.
• Micro-Credentials – Urgent development needed to upskill and reskill a great
many who will displaced from sectors badly hit – hospitality and tourism,
restaurants, airlines, retail: MOOCs + paid for Assessment powerful model.
• Service and Quality Guarantee – Ontario Tech University offers a “money
back” guarantee for the quality of its learning and student experience. Quebec
students have a class-action lawsuit.
• Uncertainty over International Students – will they come? Big impacts on
BC, Ontario and Quebec. Will some domestic students defer their start?

5. Long Term: The Three Key Changes
• A shift from a supply-led education system to a demand-led
system.
• A shift from full-time learners at the core of the system to
part-time learners as drivers of the system
• A shift from a reliance on international students for survival to
providing services to our communities while serving the
world: new funding arrangements.

6. Demand Led
• Demand will shape what we do more than it has done in the
past:
• More short courses – Micro-Credentials
• Modular, stackable credentials
• More work-based learning accreditation
• More start dates – on demand learning
• Targeted funding by governments for economic recovery
• Pressure on collaborative provision and learner mobility

7. Growth of Part Time Learners
• Affordability and return on investment will shape the decisions
learners will make. This will be influenced by how learning is being
delivered.
• 2017/18: 35% of students in colleges/polytechnics were part-time.
We can expect this number to grow and be nearer 50%.
• Part-time makes sense when unemployment is high and various
employment sectors are disrupted: learn while you earn. Work-
based learning accreditation and work-based project learning
will grow.

8. New Funding Models and Arrangements
• Governments must rethink their finances – deficits and debts are now high.
Concerns about the revenue side for colleges / institutes.
• New strategic mandate agreements and funding based on outcomes
(already in Alberta, coming in Ontario) will be the norm.
• Targeted funds for upskilling and reskilling. Requirements for co-funding
and collaboration. Blurring boundaries between continuing education and “for
credit”. End of contact-hours-based funding (Carnegie Unit).
• Structural system change – less structure, more learning – Alberta’s
“transformation of the system” RFP.

9. Four Specific Change
Possibilities

10. 1: Rethinking Apprenticeship
• Future Skills Centre will soon be trialing competency-based
assessment on demand using video-based assessment (also
in Alberta).
• Apprenticeship will need to be redesigned given disruption to
various sectors (e.g. hospitality and tourism, airlines,
hairdressing).
• Growth of degreed apprenticeship will accelerate in Canada (e.g.
Blue Seal leading to a degree).

11. 2: Modular, Stackable Credentials
• Short course modules leading to partial credit (.5, 1, 1.5 etc.)
• Modules can be stacked to = 3 credits or 6.
• Stacked Modules are transferable to diplomas, degrees.
• Blurring the boundary between continuing education and
credit.

12. 3: Assessment Only Qualifications
• Using competency-based assessment as a basis for
awarding credit and credentials – building on Western
Governors University, University of Wisconsin and others.
• Replacing PLAR with assessment on demand.

13. 4: Recognizing Work-Based Training for
Diplomas and Degrees
• Work-based learning accreditation agreements enable
training / learning undertaken at work to count as credit.
• Up to 90% of a diplomas or degree earned in this way
through work-based accreditation agreements – e.g.
Middlesex University (UK).

14. Leadership Teams

15. Leadership Teams
• Think Back from the Future: engage in scenario development –
what does the future look like – 3-4 scenarios.
• Identify indicators of the direction of travel.
• Identify 3-5 strategic moves that will be enablers, no matter
how things develop.
• Look for “action triggers” – signals that require response.
• Be ahead – don’t find yourself playing catch-up.

16. “The future
isn’t what it
used to be..”
Yogi Berra
murgatroydstephen@gmail.com