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Courageous Leadership - Calgary 2019 (Version 2.3)
The document discusses the concept of 'renaissance leadership,' emphasizing the importance of personal mastery, courage, and commitment in leadership roles as organizations navigate significant global changes. It outlines the challenges posed by technological advancements, economic shifts, and evolving demographics, projecting scenarios for the future of work and leadership. The author encourages leaders to embrace authenticity and compassion, while also adapting to new organizational structures and societal needs.
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Courageous Leadership - Calgary 2019 (Version 2.3)
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- 2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I do notown any of the copyrights or licenses to any of the images shown in this presentation. I therefore fully acknowledge the original copyright and licensing regime of every image used. This presentation (excluding the images) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License This presentation is available now on slideshare.net
- 3. WHAT WE ARE ABOUT TO LOOK AT… How leadershipreflects who you are and how you present yourself to others (voice) How leadership reflects your values (commitment) How leadership reflects the commitment in action despite challenges (courage)
- 4. WE ARE ALSO GOING TO How thisstrategic foresight / understanding shapes thinking about leadership Renaissance leadership thinking Look at a brief history of the future The jig saw of elements that will shape how we build organizations, sustain communities and enable people The challenge of organizations for 2030
- 5. The In-Between Time We’rein the midst of a significant change... In Between Time Time and the Investment of Energy and Effort SystemMaturity The 3rd Industrial Revolution / Evolving Ecosystems / Stable Economies 4th Industrial Revolution / Rapidly Changing Ecosystems / Unstable Economies Paradigm Shift
- 6. The In-Between TimeShift 3RD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION • Globalization Of Trade • Communication Technologies Driven By • The Internet • Microchips (Moore’s Law) • Biotechnology • Energy Transition 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION • Artificial Intelligence & Related Technologies • 3d Manufacturing • Regenerative Medicine • Intangible based firms – Uber and Amazon + Gig Economy
- 7. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THEFUTURE 11 PIECES OF THE FUTURE- PUZZLE
- 8. SOME CAUTION S! • “The FutureIsn’t What It Used To Be” Yogi Berra • “The Future Will Be Better Tomorrow” Vice President Dan Quayle • “It Is Difficult To Make Predictions, Especially About The Future..” Niels Bohr
- 9. DEMOGRAPHICS • AS BABYBOOMERS RETIRE THE DEPENDENCY RATIO CHANGES – IN CANADA FROM 4:1 TO 2:1 BY 2030 • SOME REGIONS OF CANADA GROWING QUICKLY – ALBERTA IS ONE • INDIGENOUS PEOPLES ALSO GROWING – A GROWING & SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE CANADIAN WORKFORCE. • SOME COUNTRIES BELOW POPULATION REPLACEMENT – ESPECIALLY JAPAN • OTHERS RAPIDLY GROWING – ESPECIALLY IN ASIA, CHINA • IMMIGRATION ESSENTIAL IN MANY COUNTRIES – CANADA NEEDS TO DOUBLE ITS IMMIGRATION TO “STAY THE SAME” – 1 MILLION BY 2021 IS ALREADY ON THE AGENDA
- 10. SHIFTING GLOBAL ECONOMIES– SHIFT HAPPENS! • 424 MAJOR CITIES IN THE WORLD WILL GENERATE 75% OF THE WORLD’S GDP – 325 OF THESE ARE IN ASIA • NEW MIDDLE CLASS (2.5 BILLION BY 2050) – ALMOST ENTIRELY IN ASIA / INDIA / AFRICA • 50% OF THE WORLD’S $1 BILLION COMPANIES ARE HEADQUARTERED IN ASIA – MORE TO COME
- 11. GLOBALIZATION • MOOCS: 81.5MILLION INDIVIDUALS REGISTERED FOR ONE OF 9,500 MOOCS FROM 800+ UNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES IN 2017 • SUPPLY CHAINS ARE GLOBAL – LOOK AT THE BMW MINI. 300 OPTIONS FOR EXTERIOR TRIM - 15,000,000,000,000,000 POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS. • PARTS DELIVERED TO OXFORD JUST IN TIME 0 – ENOUGH FOR 1 SHIFT. 3,600 PARTS IN A STANDARD MINI (UP TO 4,875 IN A MINI COOPER S) – FROM 47 COUNTRIES.
- 12. PLANET IN PERIL •9.5 BILLION PEOPLE ON PLANET EARTH BY 2050 • IF WE CONTINUE CURRENT BEHAVIOURS, WE WILL NEED 3 PLANETS TO SUPPLY THIS POPULATION • ALREADY EXPERIENCING CHALLENGES ABOUT WATER, CLIMATE, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS • ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES ARE REAL AND URGENT
- 13. RAPID ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGIES •ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE • 3D PRINTING ENABLING ADAPTIVE MANUFACTURING • STEM-CELL THERAPIES AND GENE SPLICING • ROBOTICS • BLOCKCHAIN • HUMAN IMPLANTS – COGNITIVE IMPLANTS • NEUROPLASTICITY AND COGNITIVE SCIENCE
- 14. ENERGY TRANSITION • BY2035 20% OF GLOBAL ENERGY WILL COME FROM NON-FOSSIL FUELS • SEVERAL COUNTRIES WILL OUTLAW THE SALE OF FOSSIL FUEL VEHICLES BY 2040 • SEVERAL LARGE OIL/GAS PLAYERS ARE SHIFTING TO RENEWABLES – SHELL, BP • OIL AND GAS PLAYERS MOVING TO ZERO EMISSIONS – CNLR • BATTERY TECHNOLOGY ADVANCING FAST…
- 17. TECHNOLOGY WILL IMPACT WORK.. • 30-40%OF ALL CURRENT WORK WILL BE IMPACTED BY ONE OR MORE OF THESE TECHNOLOGIES • SOME JOBS WILL DISAPPEAR, NEW JOBS WILL EMERGE – 2.4 MILLION NEW JOBS IN CANADA BY 2030 • SOME WORKERS WITH LOW LEVEL COGNITIVE SKILLS WILL NOT FIND WORK • WE WILL ALL HAVE TO DANCE WITH ROBOTS AND SHARE OUR INTELLIGENCE WITH MACHINES
- 18. NEW FORMS OFORGANIZATIONS • INDUSTRIAL CORPORATIONS ARE BEING REPLACED BY BUSINESS WEB ORGANIZATIONS – AMAZON AND UBER ARE MORE COMMON MODELS THAN PROCTOR AND GAMBLE • GLOBAL BUSINESSES ARE: • AGGREGATORS AND BROKERS • NETWORKED SUPPLY CHAINS • USING GIG LABOUR AND SMART TECHNOLOGIES • MOVING GOODS AND PEOPLE FASTER THAN THE TAX AUTHORITIES CAN FIND THEM • DISRUPTING ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT HOW WORK GETS DONE.. • IN SOME ECONOMIES INTANGIBLES PRODUCE MORE WEALTH THAN TANGIBLES – E.G. FINLAND, SWEDEN, NORWAY, ICELAND, UK.
- 19. THE NEW ECONOMY ISTHE GIG ECONOMY • 40% OF THE CANADIAN WORKFORCE ARE IN THE GIG ECONOMY - IN ALBERTA IT IS 17% AND GROWING FAST • GIG ECONOMY GROWING 12X FASTER THAN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT • THE UK HAS ZERO HOURS CONTRACTS… • MANY MILLENNIALS AND IGEN’S DO NOT INTEND TO PURSUE FULL TIME WORK – LOOKING FOR WORK : LIFE BALANCE
- 20. AUSTERITY AND RECESSION •US, UK, NETHERLANDS, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA, AND CANADA) AND TWO EMERGING MARKETS (CHINA AND INDIA) HAVE A $400 TRILLION RETIREMENT SAVINGS SHORTFALL THAT WILL BECOME GROWINGLY EVIDENT AND AT CRISIS POINT IN 2050. • TOTAL DEBT FROM ALL SOURCES (GOVERNMENT, CORPORATE, PERSONAL, ETC.) IS CURRENTLY US$249 TRILLION. • IN THE US, TO DELIVER CURRENT LEVELS OF PUBLIC SERVICES (EVERYTHING FROM EDUCATION TO HEALTH CARE TO PENSIONS) TO THE PROJECTED POPULATION IN 2030, TAXPAYERS WILL NEED TO FIND AN ADDITIONAL US$940 BILLION. IN THE UK, THEY’LL NEED TO FIND ANOTHER US$170 BILLION, AND IN CANADA THEY’LL NEED TO FIND ANOTHER US$90 BILLION. “We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”
- 21. GROWING INEQUALITY • IN THEUS: THE TOP 1% GAINED $21 TRILLION IN WEALTH SINCE 1989 WHILE BOTTOM HALF LOST $900 BILLION. • NEARLY HALF OF ALL GLOBAL PAY IS SCOOPED UP BY JUST 10% OF WORKERS • CANADA IS EXPERIENCING GROWING INEQUALITY – OUR TOP 100 CEO’S EARN THE AVERAGE CANADIAN WAGE ($49,510) BY 11:47 A.M. ON JANUARY 3—THE FIRST WORKING DAY OF THE YEAR. • FEWER THAN 90 FAMILIES IN CANADA HOLD ROUGHLY AS MUCH WEALTH AS EVERYONE LIVING IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR, NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND COLLECTIVELY.
- 22. IDENTITY AND MEANING • 1IN 5 IN THE US REPORT BEING LONELY • 18% OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE UK REPORT ”LIFE IS NOT WORTH LIVING” • MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES – ESPECIALLY FOR TEENS – GROWING • IDENTITY AND MEANING FROM WORK, FAMILY, COMMUNITY ARE ALL CHANGING • COMPASSION AND EMPATHY IN DECLINE AS IS SPIRITUALITY • MEANING CANNOT BE FOUND IN “STUFF” BUT IN PURPOSE AND COMPASSION
- 23. THEN WE HAVE ALBERTA.. SPECIFICCHALLENGES
- 24. ALBERTA ECONOMY.. • ALBERTA9TH WEALTHIEST JURISDICTION IN THE WORLD BY GDP PER CAPITA • GDP GROWTH 0.7% FORECAST TO RISE IN 2020 TO 1.6% • POPULATION GROWTH EXPECTED AT 1.5% IN 2019 – 6.4 MILLION BY 2046 • UNEMPLOYMENT AT 6.7% (MAY 2019) - 2.4 MILLION IN WORK • YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT 34.7% (15-24 WITH 66% PARTICIPATION RATE) • MERCHANDISE EXPORTS HIGHEST IN A DECADE • OIL PRODUCTION RISING • OIL AND GAS MORE EFFICIENT THAN EVER BEFORE – USES FEWER PEOPLE TO ACHIEVE RESULTS BUT CAPITAL INVESTMENT DOWN • FARMING SHOWING STRAIN – ESPECIALLY GRAIN, CATTLE, WHEAT • FORESTRY & MANUFACTURING ALSO SHOWING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE SALES IN 2019 • GOVERNMENT NET DEBT AS A % OF GDP AT 10.3% IS AMONGST THE LOWEST IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD ($9,153 PER CAPITA) - GERMANY IS 64% OF GDP / $28,356 PER CAPITA / UK IS 86.8% AND $36.606 / US 104% AND $66,907
- 25. 4 (and abit) SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE BASED ON PETER FRASE (2016) FOUR FUTURES – LIFE AFTER CAPITALISM LONDON: VERSO
- 26. The Four (anda Bit) Scenarios The End of Capitalism “as is” Peter Frase (2016) Four Futures Communism Socialism Rentism Exterminism Thoughts and Prayers Equalit y Hierarchy Abundance Scarcity
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- 28. NO DOUBT YOUHAVE STUDIED..
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- 30. RENAISSANC E LEADERSHIP Practice Personal Mastery Applya Glocal Mindset Accelerate Cross Boundary Learning Think Back from the Future Lead Systematic Change Drive Performance with a Passion
- 31. HAVING THE PERSONAL COMMITMEN T TOBE A RENAISSANC E LEADER Practice Personal Mastery It takes courage to be true to oneself and to speak truth to power Apply a Glocal Mindset Understand opportunity as others around the world see it and partner to make the future desirable Accelerate Cross Boundary Learning Learn from other sectors and other jurisdictions Learn from the past Understand patterns, systems and response patterns
- 32. SHOW COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP ThinkBack Think Back from the Future •Bring the future into the present •Position the Positive – the future is not to be feared, it is full of opportunity •Counter the Negatives Lead Lead Systematic Change •Focus, align and engage •Challenge, inspire, support Drive Drive Performance with Passion •Align around measures that matter •Engage the community in the work of assurance
- 33. COURAGEOU S LEADERSHIP REQUIRES RENAISSANC E LEADERS TO.. Overcome resistanceto change, denial of the need to change and complacency Counter ignorance Drive out both the fear of failure and the fear of success Overcome the “magic bullet” solutions offered by those whose real interests lie elsewhere
- 34. ..AND TO Design ways ofworking which empower, engage and enable Involve others from outside in the inside work Develop the knowledge, understanding and skills Demonstrate their ability to live with uncertainty, risk and failure See set-backs as opportunities and moments of truth for innovation Have fun doing the work of leading
- 35. LET’S MAKE THIS DEAD SIMPLE! Think ahead Lead across Managewithin All from a place of authenticity, compassion and courage
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