This document discusses trends shaping the future of work, organizations, and education. Some key trends include shifting global economies with growth in Asia, new technologies like AI disrupting many jobs, and the rise of the gig economy. This will require new types of agile organizations and new ways of working that integrate people and technology. Both businesses and public policy need to adapt to these changes. Education also needs to shift to focus more on skills like collaboration and adaptability rather than just STEM. Overall, the future will be defined by ongoing, rapid changes that require strategic leadership to navigate.

1. Using Strategic
Foresight to
Reimagine the
Future –
Work, Organizations
and Change
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA

3. This Presentation
A Brief History of
the Future – 12
Pieces of the Jigsaw
1
Implications for
Business and Public
Policy
2
The Challenge for
Education
3

4. Some Cautions!
“The future isn’t what it used
to be” Yogi Berra
“The future will be better
tomorrow” Vice President Dan
Quayle
“It is difficult to make
predictions, especially about
the future..” Niels Bohr

5. Demographics
 As baby boomers retire the dependency
ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by
2030
 Some countries below population
replacement – especially Japan, Russia and
Germany
 Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia,
China - in this region Egypt and Saudi
Arabia growing very fast
 UAE growing, ageing and changing
 Immigration essential in many countries –
Canada needs to double its immigration to
“stay the same”

6. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens
 424 major cities in the world will generate
75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in
Asia
 New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) –
almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa
 50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are
headquartered in Asia – more to come

7. Globalization
 MOOCs: 101 million
individuals registered for one
of 11,400 MOOCs from 900+
universities and colleges in
2018 – 45 degrees available
via MOOCs
 Supply chains are global –
look at the BMW Mini 300
options for exterior trim -
15,000,000,000,000,000
possible part combinations.
 Mini Parts delivered to
Oxford Just in Time –
enough for 1 shift. 3,600
parts in a standard Mini (up
to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S)
– from 47 countries.

8. Planet in Peril
 9.7 billion people on planet Earth by 2050
 If we all continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to
support this population
 Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme
weather events – in the Middle East, longer period of hot
weather, water challenges, declining outputs from agriculture
 Environmental challenges are real and urgent

9. Rapid Advances in Technologies
 Artificial Intelligence
 3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
 Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing
 Robotics
 Blockchain
 Human Implants – Cognitive Implants
 Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science

12. Technology Will
Impact Work..
 30-40% of all current work will
be impacted by one or more of
these technologies
 Some jobs will disappear, new
jobs will emerge
 Some workers with low level
cognitive skills will not find work
 We will all have to dance with
robots and share our intelligence
with machines

13. The New Economy is
the Gig Economy
 20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig
economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is
approaching 40%
 Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal
employment in Canada, US and Europe
 Because of the link between employment and
immigration in the UAE, growth here limited, but
this creates challenges….
 Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to
pursue full time work – looking for work : life
balance

14. New Forms of Organizations
 Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web organizations –
Amazon, Lfyt and Uber are more common models than Proctor and
Gamble
 Global businesses are:
 Aggregators and brokers
 Networked supply chains
 Using gig labour and smart technologies
 Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find them
 Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..
 Building fortunes on intangible assets, not traditional capital asstes
 Lasting around 20-25 years as successful firms

15. Austerity and Recession
 US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada)
and two emerging markets (China and India) will
have a $400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that
will become growingly evident and will be at crisis
point in 2050.
 Total global debt from all sources (government,
corporate, personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.
 In the US, to deliver current levels of public services
(everything from education to health care to
pensions) to the projected population in 2030,
taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940
billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170
billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another
US$90 billion.
 UAE economy healthy (debt to GDP just 17.8%) – but
all of us are vulnerable.
“We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”

16. Growing
Inequality
 Canada is experiencing growing
inequality – our top 100 CEO’s
earn the average Canadian wage
($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on
January 3—the first working day
of the year.
 During the period 1990-2016, the
top 10% of the population in the
Middle East enjoyed about 60-
66% of the region’s income.
 In Egypt, 19.1% of national
income accrues to the top 1%
— a higher rate than in oil-rich
Kuwait (17.7%).
 Social and political unrest (Arab
Spring) strongly linked to
inequality issues.

17. Identity and
Meaning
 1 in 5 in the US report being
lonely and 10% suggest that life
has “no real meaning”.
 37% of UK workers think their
jobs are pointless.
 Mental health issues – especially
for teens – growing
 Identity and meaning from work,
family, community are all
changing
 Compassion and empathy in
decline as is spirituality
 Meaning cannot be found in
“stuff” but in purpose and
compassion.

18. Implications for Business and
Public Policy
The “So What?” Question

19. The Tipping Point for Capitalism
 Our Capitalist World is at a Tipping Point:
 Capitalism without Capital
 Productivity and Wealth Generation without People
 Profit through Scale, Synergies and Spillovers
 Time of risk taking and “sunkenness” (risk R&D)
– the second mouse challenge!

20. New
Technology
/ Work 4.0 /
Org 4.0
Require fundamentally new kinds of organizations
working in new ways
AI / Robotics / 3D Manufacturing are not means of bringing
efficiency to the way we currently they work – they require
kinds of organization which uses people+technology
to create wealth
R&D is a 3:1 game – we need more of it funded by
industry to accelerate commercialization
New infrastructure (e.g. 5G) requires Work 4.0, Org
and Learning 4.0 – it is an industrial revolution

21. 7 Big Implications for Business
 Agile and Nimble – fast, responsive, strategic
 Bold, Smart and Risk Taking – Always focusing on “what’s next” and “where”
 New Kinds of Organizations Seeking Global Markets – Uber-like and lean
 New Kinds of Leadership and Management – Empowering, Engaging and Collaborative
 New Ways for the Flow of Capital – Crowds, Angels and Customers focused on intangible asset
growth
 New ways of supporting R&D
 New ways of partnering people + technology
“We’re looking for gazelles & unicorns, not sheep!”

22. What We Need To See…
Fewer Headlines LikeMore Headlines Like This…

23. Think About..
 Work is changing, but immigration policies and
employment law is slow to catch up
 How we tax intangible assets vs capital goods
increasingly determines where growth occurs
 How government acts as investors in R&D and when
matters
 Government procurement can act as a stimulus for
effective company growth
 Cluster formation supports fast growth of key
competitive sectors – but less is more
 Challenge can accelerate innovation – think X-Prize and
its impact on the development of the CO2 industry

24. Implications for Educatoon
Learning 4.0

26. Shifting
 From a focus on STEM to a recognition that we
need creativity, persuasiveness, collaboration,
time-manegement and adaptability and design
thinking as part of the learning agenda
 A shift from a content & teacher focused
learning systems, to learner focused systems
 A shift from “one size fits all” to a more
adaptive, personalized learning
 A shift from competition and testing to equity
and engagement
 A shift from long courses and degrees to short
modular stackable learning and skills,
competencies and capabilities
 A shift from just skills development to
developing purpose and compassion

27. Back to the
Future…
The Delors 4
Pillars
 Learning to know – a broad general
knowledge with the opportunity to work in
depth on a small number of subjects.
 Learning to do – to acquire not only
occupational skills but also the competence
to deal with many situations and to work in
teams.
 Learning to be – to develop one’s
personality and to be able to act with
growing autonomy, judgment and personal
responsibility.
 Learning to live together – by developing an
understanding of other people and an
appreciation of interdependence.

28. So The Big
Picture..
 It’s a time of significant change..
 More change to come… new
global competitors, new kinds of
business enterprises, new ways
of learning
 A new global financial crisis..
 It’s what we live for, right!
 The key – focused and strategic
leadership…