Chapter 8-9 International
            Monetary System
      You should master:
(1)   Features of a good international monetary system;
(2)   Rules of the games, and the advantages and
      disadvantages of the three international monetary
      systems;
(3)   The fundamental and immediate cause for the
      collapse of the Bretton Woods system;
(4)   Some terms, like gold points,
1.1. What is an international
monetary system?
 Narrowly speaking, it refers to international
 exchange rate system.
 There are three international exchange rate
 systems in history: the gold standard, the
 Bretton Woods, and the floating exchange
 rate system.
1.2. Features of a good international
monetary system
Adjustment : a good system must be able to adjust
imbalances in balance of payments quickly and at a
relatively lower cost;
Stability and Confidence: the system must be able to
keep exchange rates relatively fixed and people must
have confidence in the stability of the system;
Liquidity: the system must be able to provide enough
reserve assets for a nation to correct its balance of
payments deficits without making the nation run into
deflation or inflation.
1.3 Classification of international
monetary system
   gold standard,
   gold exchange standard
   fiduciary standard
   Floating exchange rate system

    Fixed exchange rate system
II. The gold standard system(1880---1914)

Fixed Rate System
The world economy operated under a
system of fixed dollar exchange rates
between the end of World War II and 1973,
with central banks routinely trading foreign
exchange to hold their exchange rates at
internationally agreed levels.
Two kinds of the fixed
exchange rates
1. The fixed exchange rate system under the gold
   standard
2. Notes in circulation system of fixed exchange
   rate system
3. Gold Standard: provisions of the gold content of
   the monetary unit.
4. The gold content of the contrast determine the
   exchange rate.
5. Coins can freely casting; freely convertible;
   freedom of input and output.
2.1 Rules of the game
 Fix an official gold price or “mint parity” and allow free
 convertibility between domestic money and gold at that
 price.
 Impose no restrictions on the import or export of gold by
 private citizens, or on the use of gold for international
 transactions.
 Issue national currency and coins only with gold backing,
 and link the growth in national bank deposits to the
 availability of national gold reserves.
 In the event of a short-run liquidity crisis associated with
 gold outflows, the central bank should lend freely to
 domestic banks at higher interest rates (Bagehot’s Rule).
 If Rule I is ever temporarily suspended, restore
 convertibility at the original mint parity as soon as
 practical.
2.2 Factors that determine or affect
the exchange rates
 Factors that determine the exchange rates:
 the mint parity
 E.g. US$1=         British £

 Factors that influence the exchange rates:
 gold points and the demand for and supply
 of foreign exchange
2.3 Adjustment of balance of
payments deficits or surpluses

 Price-specie flow mechanism:
 Deficit               gold flow out of the country
         gold reserve decrease                           money
                         quantity theory of money
 supply decrease                                  price level
           exchange rate fixed
 decrease                        export go up, import go
 down, deficit disappear
 The adjustment of surplus is the opposite.
2.4 Remarks and comments
 An international gold standard avoids the
 asymmetry inherent in a reserve currency
 standard by avoiding the “Nth currency”
 problem. Under a gold standard, each
 country fixes the price of its currency in
 terms of gold by standing ready to trade
 domestic currency for gold whenever
 necessary to defend the official price.
The collapse of the gold standard system

 It is virtually a pound standard system :
  Britain and British pound’s position in the
 system
 Outbreak of World War I.
Advantage of the Gold Standard
  Because there are N currency and N
  prices of gold in terms of those
  currencies, no single country occupies a
  privileged position within the system: each
  is responsible for pegging its currency’s
  price in terms of the official international
  reserve asset, gold. Gold standard rules
  also require each country to allow
  unhindered imports and exports of gold
  across its borders.
Benefits and drawbacks of the
Gold Standard
   Benefits:
1. Symmetry
2. Price level and value of national money
   are more stable and predictable
3. Enhance international transactions
Drawbacks:
1. Constraints on the use of monetary policy to
   fight unemployment.
2. Tying currency values to gold ensures a stable
   overall price level only if the relative price of
   gold is stable.→gold discovery in South America
3. An international payments system based on gold
   is problematic because central banks cannot
   increase their holdings of international reserves
   as their economies grow unless there are
   continual new gold discoveries.
4. The gold standard gives gold-producing
   countries power to influence the world economy
The Gold Exchange Standard
 Halfway between the gold standard and a pure
 reserve currency standard is the gold exchange
 standard. Central banks’ reserves consist of gold
 and currencies whose prices in terms of gold are
 fixed, and each central bank fixes its exchange
 rate to a currency with a fixed gold price.
 More flexibility in the growth of international
 reserves.
3. The Bretton Woods System1944-1973

 3.1 How this system came into being
 The harms and disasters that the two Wars
 brought the world.
3.2 Rules of the game
 Fix an official par value for domestic currency in
 terms of gold or a currency tied to gold as a
 numeraire.
 In the short run, keep the exchange rate pegged
 within 1% of its par value, but in the long-run
 leave open the option to adjust the par value
 unilaterally if the IMF concurs.
 Permit free convertibility of currencies for current
 account transactions, but use capital controls to
 limit currency speculation.
Fixed Exchange Rates under
currency-circulation system
  Notes in circulation under the Bretton Woods
  system. 1944 Bretton Woods agreement
  The result of a compromise by the United
  Kingdom to the United States "double hook"
  system.                 1% 幅度波动
                                       National
1 盎司 =35 美                             currencies
元              美元 dollar              Yen ...
                                      Lire ...
 金块
How to sustain the Fixed Rate

1. Use gold reserves (储备项目)
2. By making use of discount policies (资
   本项目)
3. Foreign exchange controls (或签订互换
   货币协定)
4. Official devaluations ( last resort )
3.3 Features of the system
 IMF to see that this system runs on
 smoothly
 More flexibility in exchange rates
 More channels to correct imbalances in
 balance of payments
3.4 Adjustment of balance of
payments imbalances
 Offset short-run balance of payments
 imbalances by use of official reserves and
 IMF credits, and sterilize the impact of
 exchange market interventions on the
 domestic money supply
 Adjust fundamental imbalances by change
 the par value permanently, provided agreed
 by the IMF
3.4 Adjustment of balance of
payments imbalances
 Subordinate domestic monetary and fiscal policies
 to maintain fixed exchange rate (use monetary
 policy to keep price level and fiscal policy---
 government expenditures minus tax revenues--- to
 offset imbalances between private savings and
 investment):
 Deficit         contractionary monetary or fiscal
 policy        price level decrease exchange rate fixed
 export go up, import go down, deficit disappear
 The adjustment of surplus is the opposite.
3.5 Remarks and comments
 Advantages
 Disadvantages: exchange rates are not
 flexible, Triffin Paradox
Triffin Paradox

liquidity

                   U.S. run deficits
                   U.S. run surplus


 confidence
3.6 Collapse of the Bretton Woods
    System: Process of dollar devaluation
ounce of gold
Dollar value per

                                 1 盎司值美元
                     35



                          38
                                  42.22 脱钩浮动


                   1944   1971   1973
Abandoned Gold Exchange
Standard
The post-World War II reserve currency system
  centered on the dollar was, in fact, originally set up
  as a gold exchange standard. While foreign central
  banks did the job of pegging exchange rates, the
  U.S. Federal Reserve was responsible for holding
  the dollar price of gold at $35 an ounce. By the
  mid-1960s, the system operated in practice more
  like a pure reserve currency system than a gold
  standard. President Nixon unilaterally severed the
  dollar’s link to gold in August 1971, shortly
  before the system of fixed dollar exchange rates
  was abandoned.
4. The present Floating Exchange Rate
System (1973-present)
     4.1 How this system came into being
     “A system of no system” “An order of no order”----
     Features of this system
1.   No par values, between home currency and foreign
     currency or gold
2.   No upper or lower limits of exchange rate fluctuations
3.   The government has no obligation to maintain exchange
     rate fixed, it can choose any kind of exchange rate
     system, flexible rates are legal
4.   外汇市场 供求决定汇率
5.   国际收支 变化是影响汇率的主要因素
4.2 Rules of the game
 Smooth short-term variability in the dollar exchange rate,
 but do not commit to an official par value or to long-term
 exchange rate stability
 Permit free convertibility of currencies for current account
 transactions, while endeavoring to eliminate all remaining
 restrictions on capital account transactions
 Use the U.S. dollar as the intervention currency and keep
 official reserves primarily in U.S. treasury bonds
 Modify domestic monetary policy to support major
 exchange rate interventions, reducing the money supply
 when the national currency is weak against the dollar and
 expanding the money supply when the national currency is
 strong
4.3 Features of this system
 More currencies can be used as reserve
 assets
 Governments began to cooperate to
 intervene in the foreign exchange markets
 and to coordinate their domestic policies to
 achieve “common prosperity”
 Many different kinds of exchange rates
 appear
Types of floating exchange rates
      Whether there is a dirty hand:
1.    Free Float/Clean Float
2.    Managed Float/Dirty Float
      Whether there is a Connection with other
      currencies:
1.    Single Float 英镑,美元,日元等 27 个国家。
2.    Pegged Float(1) 钉住某一种货币: (2) 钉住一
      揽子货币: SDR; ECU; 。
3.    Joint Float 欧共体。
4.    Crawling peg
4.4 Adjustment of imbalances in
balance of payments
 IMF credits
 Change of exchange rates: devaluations or
 revaluations
 Coordination between governments: the
 Plaza Agreement, the Lourve Accord, etc
 Domestic policies: “Two-gap theory”
 C+I+G+X=C+S+T+M

 X-M=(S-I)+(T-G)
5. Should we return to a fixed rate
system?
 What kind of international monetary system
 should we adopt?
 What are the advantages and disadvantages
 of fixed and floating exchange rate system
 respectively?
5.1 Arguments favoring floating rates
1.   Better adjustment
2.   Better confidence
3.   Better liquidity
4.   Gains from freer trade
5.   Avoiding the so-called “Peso Problem”
6.   Increased independence of policy
5.2 Arguments against floating
exchange rates: Flexible rates
1. Cause uncertainty and inhibit international
   trade and investment
2. Cause destabilizing speculation
3. Will not work for open economies
4. Are inflationary
5. Are unstable because of small trade
   elasticities
6. Cause structural unemployment
Krugman & Obstfeld (1)
1. Discipline. Central banks freed from the
   obligation to fix their exchange rates might
   embark on inflationary policies.
2. Destabilizing speculation and money market
   disturbances. Speculation on changes in
   exchange rates could lead to instability in foreign
   exchange markets.
3. Injury to international trade and investment.
   Floating rates would make relative international
   prices more unpredictable.
Krugman & Obstfeld (2)
4. Uncoordinated economic policies. The door
   would be opened to competitive currency practices
   harmful to the would economy.
5. The illusion of greater autonomy. Floating
   exchange rates would not really give countries
   more policy autonomy. Changes in exchange rates
   would have such pervasive macroeconomic effects
   that central banks would feel compelled to
   intervene heavily in foreign exchange markets
   even without a formal commitment to peg.
5.3 Selection of Fixed & Floating
Exchange Rates
  固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的选择取决于
  一国的国情:
  大国还是小国;
  发展中国家还是发达国家;
  此事古难全

Chapter 8 9 international monetary system

  • 1.
    Chapter 8-9 International Monetary System You should master: (1) Features of a good international monetary system; (2) Rules of the games, and the advantages and disadvantages of the three international monetary systems; (3) The fundamental and immediate cause for the collapse of the Bretton Woods system; (4) Some terms, like gold points,
  • 2.
    1.1. What isan international monetary system? Narrowly speaking, it refers to international exchange rate system. There are three international exchange rate systems in history: the gold standard, the Bretton Woods, and the floating exchange rate system.
  • 3.
    1.2. Features ofa good international monetary system Adjustment : a good system must be able to adjust imbalances in balance of payments quickly and at a relatively lower cost; Stability and Confidence: the system must be able to keep exchange rates relatively fixed and people must have confidence in the stability of the system; Liquidity: the system must be able to provide enough reserve assets for a nation to correct its balance of payments deficits without making the nation run into deflation or inflation.
  • 4.
    1.3 Classification ofinternational monetary system gold standard, gold exchange standard fiduciary standard Floating exchange rate system Fixed exchange rate system
  • 5.
    II. The goldstandard system(1880---1914) Fixed Rate System The world economy operated under a system of fixed dollar exchange rates between the end of World War II and 1973, with central banks routinely trading foreign exchange to hold their exchange rates at internationally agreed levels.
  • 6.
    Two kinds ofthe fixed exchange rates 1. The fixed exchange rate system under the gold standard 2. Notes in circulation system of fixed exchange rate system 3. Gold Standard: provisions of the gold content of the monetary unit. 4. The gold content of the contrast determine the exchange rate. 5. Coins can freely casting; freely convertible; freedom of input and output.
  • 7.
    2.1 Rules ofthe game Fix an official gold price or “mint parity” and allow free convertibility between domestic money and gold at that price. Impose no restrictions on the import or export of gold by private citizens, or on the use of gold for international transactions. Issue national currency and coins only with gold backing, and link the growth in national bank deposits to the availability of national gold reserves. In the event of a short-run liquidity crisis associated with gold outflows, the central bank should lend freely to domestic banks at higher interest rates (Bagehot’s Rule). If Rule I is ever temporarily suspended, restore convertibility at the original mint parity as soon as practical.
  • 8.
    2.2 Factors thatdetermine or affect the exchange rates Factors that determine the exchange rates: the mint parity E.g. US$1= British £ Factors that influence the exchange rates: gold points and the demand for and supply of foreign exchange
  • 9.
    2.3 Adjustment ofbalance of payments deficits or surpluses Price-specie flow mechanism: Deficit gold flow out of the country gold reserve decrease money quantity theory of money supply decrease price level exchange rate fixed decrease export go up, import go down, deficit disappear The adjustment of surplus is the opposite.
  • 10.
    2.4 Remarks andcomments An international gold standard avoids the asymmetry inherent in a reserve currency standard by avoiding the “Nth currency” problem. Under a gold standard, each country fixes the price of its currency in terms of gold by standing ready to trade domestic currency for gold whenever necessary to defend the official price.
  • 11.
    The collapse ofthe gold standard system It is virtually a pound standard system : Britain and British pound’s position in the system Outbreak of World War I.
  • 12.
    Advantage of theGold Standard Because there are N currency and N prices of gold in terms of those currencies, no single country occupies a privileged position within the system: each is responsible for pegging its currency’s price in terms of the official international reserve asset, gold. Gold standard rules also require each country to allow unhindered imports and exports of gold across its borders.
  • 13.
    Benefits and drawbacksof the Gold Standard Benefits: 1. Symmetry 2. Price level and value of national money are more stable and predictable 3. Enhance international transactions
  • 14.
    Drawbacks: 1. Constraints onthe use of monetary policy to fight unemployment. 2. Tying currency values to gold ensures a stable overall price level only if the relative price of gold is stable.→gold discovery in South America 3. An international payments system based on gold is problematic because central banks cannot increase their holdings of international reserves as their economies grow unless there are continual new gold discoveries. 4. The gold standard gives gold-producing countries power to influence the world economy
  • 15.
    The Gold ExchangeStandard Halfway between the gold standard and a pure reserve currency standard is the gold exchange standard. Central banks’ reserves consist of gold and currencies whose prices in terms of gold are fixed, and each central bank fixes its exchange rate to a currency with a fixed gold price. More flexibility in the growth of international reserves.
  • 16.
    3. The BrettonWoods System1944-1973 3.1 How this system came into being The harms and disasters that the two Wars brought the world.
  • 17.
    3.2 Rules ofthe game Fix an official par value for domestic currency in terms of gold or a currency tied to gold as a numeraire. In the short run, keep the exchange rate pegged within 1% of its par value, but in the long-run leave open the option to adjust the par value unilaterally if the IMF concurs. Permit free convertibility of currencies for current account transactions, but use capital controls to limit currency speculation.
  • 18.
    Fixed Exchange Ratesunder currency-circulation system Notes in circulation under the Bretton Woods system. 1944 Bretton Woods agreement The result of a compromise by the United Kingdom to the United States "double hook" system. 1% 幅度波动 National 1 盎司 =35 美 currencies 元 美元 dollar Yen ... Lire ... 金块
  • 19.
    How to sustainthe Fixed Rate 1. Use gold reserves (储备项目) 2. By making use of discount policies (资 本项目) 3. Foreign exchange controls (或签订互换 货币协定) 4. Official devaluations ( last resort )
  • 20.
    3.3 Features ofthe system IMF to see that this system runs on smoothly More flexibility in exchange rates More channels to correct imbalances in balance of payments
  • 21.
    3.4 Adjustment ofbalance of payments imbalances Offset short-run balance of payments imbalances by use of official reserves and IMF credits, and sterilize the impact of exchange market interventions on the domestic money supply Adjust fundamental imbalances by change the par value permanently, provided agreed by the IMF
  • 22.
    3.4 Adjustment ofbalance of payments imbalances Subordinate domestic monetary and fiscal policies to maintain fixed exchange rate (use monetary policy to keep price level and fiscal policy--- government expenditures minus tax revenues--- to offset imbalances between private savings and investment): Deficit contractionary monetary or fiscal policy price level decrease exchange rate fixed export go up, import go down, deficit disappear The adjustment of surplus is the opposite.
  • 23.
    3.5 Remarks andcomments Advantages Disadvantages: exchange rates are not flexible, Triffin Paradox
  • 24.
    Triffin Paradox liquidity U.S. run deficits U.S. run surplus confidence
  • 25.
    3.6 Collapse ofthe Bretton Woods System: Process of dollar devaluation ounce of gold Dollar value per 1 盎司值美元 35 38 42.22 脱钩浮动 1944 1971 1973
  • 26.
    Abandoned Gold Exchange Standard Thepost-World War II reserve currency system centered on the dollar was, in fact, originally set up as a gold exchange standard. While foreign central banks did the job of pegging exchange rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve was responsible for holding the dollar price of gold at $35 an ounce. By the mid-1960s, the system operated in practice more like a pure reserve currency system than a gold standard. President Nixon unilaterally severed the dollar’s link to gold in August 1971, shortly before the system of fixed dollar exchange rates was abandoned.
  • 27.
    4. The presentFloating Exchange Rate System (1973-present) 4.1 How this system came into being “A system of no system” “An order of no order”---- Features of this system 1. No par values, between home currency and foreign currency or gold 2. No upper or lower limits of exchange rate fluctuations 3. The government has no obligation to maintain exchange rate fixed, it can choose any kind of exchange rate system, flexible rates are legal 4. 外汇市场 供求决定汇率 5. 国际收支 变化是影响汇率的主要因素
  • 28.
    4.2 Rules ofthe game Smooth short-term variability in the dollar exchange rate, but do not commit to an official par value or to long-term exchange rate stability Permit free convertibility of currencies for current account transactions, while endeavoring to eliminate all remaining restrictions on capital account transactions Use the U.S. dollar as the intervention currency and keep official reserves primarily in U.S. treasury bonds Modify domestic monetary policy to support major exchange rate interventions, reducing the money supply when the national currency is weak against the dollar and expanding the money supply when the national currency is strong
  • 29.
    4.3 Features ofthis system More currencies can be used as reserve assets Governments began to cooperate to intervene in the foreign exchange markets and to coordinate their domestic policies to achieve “common prosperity” Many different kinds of exchange rates appear
  • 30.
    Types of floatingexchange rates Whether there is a dirty hand: 1. Free Float/Clean Float 2. Managed Float/Dirty Float Whether there is a Connection with other currencies: 1. Single Float 英镑,美元,日元等 27 个国家。 2. Pegged Float(1) 钉住某一种货币: (2) 钉住一 揽子货币: SDR; ECU; 。 3. Joint Float 欧共体。 4. Crawling peg
  • 31.
    4.4 Adjustment ofimbalances in balance of payments IMF credits Change of exchange rates: devaluations or revaluations Coordination between governments: the Plaza Agreement, the Lourve Accord, etc Domestic policies: “Two-gap theory” C+I+G+X=C+S+T+M X-M=(S-I)+(T-G)
  • 32.
    5. Should wereturn to a fixed rate system? What kind of international monetary system should we adopt? What are the advantages and disadvantages of fixed and floating exchange rate system respectively?
  • 33.
    5.1 Arguments favoringfloating rates 1. Better adjustment 2. Better confidence 3. Better liquidity 4. Gains from freer trade 5. Avoiding the so-called “Peso Problem” 6. Increased independence of policy
  • 34.
    5.2 Arguments againstfloating exchange rates: Flexible rates 1. Cause uncertainty and inhibit international trade and investment 2. Cause destabilizing speculation 3. Will not work for open economies 4. Are inflationary 5. Are unstable because of small trade elasticities 6. Cause structural unemployment
  • 35.
    Krugman & Obstfeld(1) 1. Discipline. Central banks freed from the obligation to fix their exchange rates might embark on inflationary policies. 2. Destabilizing speculation and money market disturbances. Speculation on changes in exchange rates could lead to instability in foreign exchange markets. 3. Injury to international trade and investment. Floating rates would make relative international prices more unpredictable.
  • 36.
    Krugman & Obstfeld(2) 4. Uncoordinated economic policies. The door would be opened to competitive currency practices harmful to the would economy. 5. The illusion of greater autonomy. Floating exchange rates would not really give countries more policy autonomy. Changes in exchange rates would have such pervasive macroeconomic effects that central banks would feel compelled to intervene heavily in foreign exchange markets even without a formal commitment to peg.
  • 37.
    5.3 Selection ofFixed & Floating Exchange Rates 固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的选择取决于 一国的国情: 大国还是小国; 发展中国家还是发达国家; 此事古难全