Presented by Jaap de Heer Revitalizing the Ganges Coastal Zone Conference 21-23 October 2014, Dhaka, Bangladesh http://waterandfood.org/ganges-conference/

1. BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100
Giasuddin Choudhury, Deputy Team
Leader
Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

2. An Introduction to Bangladesh Delta Plan
2100 Formulation Process
GOB General Economic Division (GED)
Planning Commission
and
GoN Embassy of Kingdom of The Netherlands (EKN) Bangladesh Dutch Delta
Advisory Services
(BanDuDeltAS)

3. Eleva&on
in
meter
Land
Classifica&on
• Area
:147
570
km²
•
Hills
:
12%
•
Terraces
:
8%
•
Floodplains
:
80%
Bangladesh Delta:
A very dynamic

4. Delta
Challenges
Bangladesh
aspires
to
be
middle
income
country
by
2021
• Present
growth
:
6%
(last
10
years)
• Forecasted
growth
:
6.7-­‐7.5
(next
five
years)
However,
we
face
many
challenges
Socio-­‐economic
snap-­‐shot
• HDI
ranking
(2013)
:
146th
out
of
186
countries
• GHI
ranking
I2012)
:
68th
out
of
79
countries
Demography

5. 0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1974
1981
1991
2001
2011
2025
2050
PopulationinThousand
Year
Census
Popula&on
Projected
Popula&on
Population Growth & Land Use Change
181million
224
million
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1974-­‐7
1976-­‐7
1978-­‐7
1980-­‐8
1982-­‐8
1984-­‐8
1986-­‐8
1988-­‐8
1990-­‐9
1992-­‐9
1994-­‐9
1996-­‐9
1998-­‐9
2000-­‐0
2002-­‐0
2004-­‐0
2006-­‐0
2008-­‐0
Lac
hectare
Agriculture
Land
Decreasing
1974 : 9.4 Mha
2008 : 8.6 Mha
2050 : 7.5 Mha (projected)
Source: NWMP
Delta
Challenges

6. Hazard Class Map
Ranking
of
mul&-­‐hazard
maps
used
for
preparing
the
risk-­‐index
:
v Cyclone
:
High
risk-­‐5,
risk-­‐3,wind
risk-­‐
1
v Flood
:
Severely
flooded
due
to
major
river
floods
–
3,
flash
flood
due
to
major
river-­‐2,
other
flood-­‐1
v Riverbank
erosion
:
Severe
erosion-­‐2,
erosion
-­‐1
v Drought
:
Very
severe
drought
prone
areas
–
2,
severe
drought-­‐1

7. Copyright BanDuDeltAS - 2014 7
I. Mission, Organization, and
Workplan
I. Mission, Organization, and Workplan
Mission: Role in achieving national goals
So a strategic plan is required comprises a:
" long term (50 to 100 year),
" integrated and holistic vision and strategy,
" to improve safe living and sound economic development in the Bangladesh delta,
" while taking climate change into account,
" with a widespread socio-political support
" while short term results of measures and actions are needed to solve urgent
problems; an umbrella plan.
“[…] to realize a sustainable delta vision, long term strategy and plan, agreed with
the relevant stakeholders, for an optimum level of water safety and food security
as well as economic growth and a framework for its implementation.”
" As such, BDP 2100 should be seen as an indicative plan.
" Emphasis on adequate governance is important to ensure that BDP 2100 will be
implementable and acted upon.

8. Copyright BanDuDeltAS - 2014 8
I. BDP 2100 Challenges
BDP 2100 challenges in achieving national goals
Challenges:
" Facing water resources problems, related issues e.g. climate change
" Need for long term holistic vision / strategy / plan / investments for better
future water and land management
" Institutional and governance setting, making BDP 2100 approach possible
and implementable
Key points:
" Long term (50 to 100 year) Delta Vision
" Holistic approach with 19 themes
" Scenario based adaptive strategies and interventions
" Climate change one of the main drivers
" Widespread socio-political support
" Input for 7th Five Year Plan early 2015
" Governance ensuring an implementable BDP 2100
" Coordinated action for short term investment and implementation

9. Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014 9
I. Mission, Organization, and
Workplan
Interactive Strategic Planning process
Governance, Content, and Stakeholders will come together, via learning cycles

10. Copyright BanDuDeltAS - 2014 10
III. Interactive strategic planning
III. Interactive strategic planning
Developing Delta Vision (Perspective)
“A more or less coherent set of vision elements (principles, values,
aspirations) of an actor or coalition of a desirable delta development and
the goals related to its realization.”
" Such a development can be a climate proof delta, a competing delta or a
sustainable delta. Being a complex adaptive system, for deltas such a
strategic vision or perspective is probably more likely to be a direction than
an end-picture.

11. Design
of
Adap3ve
Delta
Plan
Implementa3on
&
Investment
Plan
Monitoring
of
Project
Ac3vi3es
as
per
the
BDP-­‐2100
D
e
l
t
a
A
t
e
l
i
e
r
s
T
T
In
te
r
a
ct
io
n
G
C
Current
Policy
Situa3on
Sectoral
status
Drivers/Pressures
Integrated
Analysis
Interpreta3on
and
Visioning
Formula3on
of
Delta
Vision
Development
of
Assessment
Framework
Scenario
Development
Analysis
of
Strategies
Adapta3on
Pathways
Crea3ng
Governance
and
Legal
Framework
Ins3tu3onal
Development
&
Capacity
Building
Sectoral
Transla3on
and
Prepara3on
Dissemina3on
and
Localiza3on
Financial
Arrangements
ADAPTIVE
POLICY
PATHWAYSBASELINE
STUDIES DELTA
FRAMEWORK
7th
Five
Year
Plan

12. Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014 12
II. Preparing the Ground
Themes for Baseline Studies
Water Resources
I. Morphological dynamics of
Bangladesh Delta
II. Water resources
III. Coastal Polder issues
Water Supply and Sanitation
I. Public heath, water supply and
sanitation
Disaster Risk Reduction
I. Climate change issues
II. Disaster management
Spatial Planning
I. Land resources
II. Urbanization and settlement
Food Security
I. Agriculture and food security
II. Fisheries and livestock
Environmental Management
I. Ecological Settings
II. Forests and biodiversity
III. Environmental pollution
Economics and Finance
I. Growth of Population and
Management in the context of
resources setting
II. Socio-economic and demographic
condition
III. Sustainable Transportation
Infrastructures
Governance
I. Information and creation of
knowledge management
Institution
II. Institutional framework/
arrangement
III. Regional cooperation
19 themes to be studied
The 19 Baseline Studies
include:
- ToC; ToR; Study Plan
- Study of Baseline Conditions,
current approaches and issues
- Possible solutions
- Use of Delta Ateliers & Touch
Table for broad consultation
Integrated Analysis
- Hot Spots
- Delta Vision

13. Major
Hotspots
of
Delta
Plan
q Mighty
rivers
q Coastal
areas
q Dhaka
and
other
major
ci&es
q Haor-­‐areas
in
the
North-­‐East
q Drought
prone
areas
in
the
North-­‐
West
Feni
Bhola
Dhaka
Pabna
Bogra
Khulna
Narail
Magura
Natore
Sylhet
Barguna
Barisal
Jessore
Comilla
Rajbari
Kushtia
Gazipur
Tangail
Naogaon
Sherpur
Rangpur
Pirojpur
Bagerhat
Satkhira
Noakhali
Chandpur
Faridpur
Meherpur
Rajshahi
Habiganj
Jamalpur
Dinajpur Kurigram
Bandarban
Jhalokati
Rangamati
Gopalganj
Madaripur
Jhenaidah
Chuadanga
Manikganj
Narsingdi
Sirajganj
Nawabganj
Netrakona
Sunamganj
Joypurhat
Gaibandha
Chittagong
Patuakhali
Lakshmipur
Shariatpur
Munshiganj
Mymensingh
Nilphamari
Thakurgaon
Panchagarh
Cox's Bazar
Narayanganj
Kishoreganj
Maulvibazar
Lalmonirhat
Khagrachhari
Brahamanbaria ´
B a y o f B e n g a l
India
India
India
Myanmar

14. • Atlas
per
hotspot
summarizing
and
visualizing
the
results
of
the
baseline
studies
• Making
scien3fic
informa3on
accessible
and
visible
Copyright Bandudeltas - 2014 1410/23/14
Informa3on
Portal
An
Example
of
Climate
Change
Atlas

15. www.bandudeltas.org
Road # 83, House # 13/A , NE(K), Level 5
Gulshan-2, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh