This document discusses the role of statistical science in the aviation industry. It begins by defining key statistical terms like descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, populations, sampling, and distributions. It then provides examples of how statistics are used in aviation for fuel consumption analysis, maintenance planning, purchasing, commercial planning, training, and simulation. Specifically, it notes that airlines use normal distributions to monitor fuel usage and Poisson distributions for overbooking policies. Overall, the document argues that statistical techniques help airlines make data-driven decisions and position themselves for success during economic downturns.

1. study 15
Mohammed Salem Awad
PhD Candidature
Aviation Management - India
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS IN
AVIATION INDUSTRY
I
n the recent era of technology; the outcomes of decision making usually based on figures and statistics, which is definitely reflects
the statistical pattern of the data and sampling procedures, either its time related or event related. This defines clearly the importance
of statistics as a science and their trails and experiments in practice. And as it well known that “To Fit Data Is An Art” so accordingly
these techniques are used as a science implementing in all fields of life’s, and we have to recognize what is behinds numbers, how to
create a sampling distributions, and how its related to the practice, especially phenomena of the art of fits of distribution with practical
data which usually approved by a statistical experiments or tests as Chi-Square or Kolomograph test, and consequently due the
huge numbers of these researches and experiments by mathematicians and scientists a well defined patterned and distributions are
assigned and adapted in fields of real life as technical, educational, philological, and social, devoting our concern to the statistical
patterned of the technical and practical fields in the airline industry and how to use them in practice to take the right decisions.8
CAMA Magazine | issue 13 | December, 2011

2. 16 study
Statistical Science Fuel Consumption
Before proceed further in statistical analysis, we have
to define some basic terms in the statistical science,
accordingly the statistics have two main functions:
I- Data Descriptive
II- Developing a statistical inference
to achieve a certain decision.
So there are a Descriptive Statistics
and Inferential Statistics.
Populations and Sampling
These two terms are the main issues in statistics
especially for Inferential Statistics, so the Populations
can be defined as the whole community of the concerned
field of the study for the researchers, while sampling
is a part of it that reflects the main characteristics of
society, used instead of the whole society in experiments T.B.O. Analysis Model
and tests for economical and practical reasons.
Total Cost
Types of Sampling
The sampling type is identify according to the sampling
technique and procedure used to extract the data as
Cost in US$
A- Simple Random Sample
B- Stratified Sample
C- Systematic Sample
B Cost of A Cost of Spare Engines
Aircraft on
Parameter and Estimators Ground
Any distribution has its own characteristics as Mean,
Variance ...ets. Also data sampling has its own
characteristics, define by parameters while for those Number of Spare Engines
related to random sampling, they are called estimators,
Product Life Model
which are reflects the estimating values of the random
sampling and commonly is unknown values. Bath-Tub Curve
Variables
It is a set of characters that describe event that
Chance Failure
Failure Rate
related for the study in a various conditions
as age, sex, color, weight and length.
Frequency Distributions Initial Failure Wear out Failure
Generally, the quantitative data can be classified and
summarized by one of the statistical descriptive methods
that used for displayed, organized and tabulated. So Cycles / Hours
frequency distribution is the most practical method to use.
And it can be a group/ set of organized data, Spill Analysis
that arranged/ ranked in ascending or descending SAH - DXB
order, that reflecting the repeated quantitive Spill
effect of data, so this repeated distribution can be Demand Factor (0)
represented by chart of frequency distribution. Load Factor (L)
Load & Demand Factor
There are many statistical curves that may represent
Spilled Passengers
by frequency distributions from the whole society. And it
is an important issue to recognize these characteristics of
sampling for the inferential statistic and accordingly we have
to study the statistical distributions and how it is works.
To study the statistical distributions for related
communities, that will be hard and may be impossible
for to the huge population of the community data bases
and the inability to have all units’ data. And consequently
Capacity Seat
mathematicians address this issue in their researches,
Overbooking Policy
developed and adapted a specific formula for certain 1400
situation that may describe the best behavior for data
in practice. These outcomes sampling are known 1200
as theoretical distributions, and can be classified as 1000
Continues Distribution and Discrete Distributions e.g.: Sector SAH-DXB Period: Oct 2010
Cost in USD
800
1- Normal Distribution
2- Binomial Distribution 600
3- Ch-Square Distribution 400 No Show Cost
4- Exponential Distribution Denied Boarding Cost
Total Cost
5- Weibull Distribution 200
6- Poisson Distribution 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
7- Gamma Distribution Number of Reservations (Overbooking)
8- Beta Distribution
Aircraft
Capacity OVERBOOKING
CAMA Magazine | issue 13 | December, 2011

3. study 16
1- Normal Distribution
It is the main distribution in practice and it is
characterize by two important factors, which are
Mean and Variance and mostly use in quality
controls, failure control and it is a continuous one. One of the main challenges
2- Exponential Distributions in Airline Industry is fuel
It is also a continuous distribution, that reflect the
stable random behavior stage in practice (Chance cost, and consequently fuel
Stage) and it is describe by one or two factors. consumption, as it represents
3- Weibull Distribution about 35% of total cost of
It has many practical situations due its basic parameters
that describe the distribution; they are Scale, Shape, and airline company, so most
Location parameters it is widely use in failure diagnostic
situations. It is also a continuous distribution. of airline companies act
4- Poisson Distribution – Discrete
on developing of quality
5- Gamma Distribution– Discrete
6- Beta Distribution – Discrete
control monitoring program,
7- Binomial Distribution – Discrete evaluating the patterned of
Implementation in Aviation Industry: natural of fuel consumption by
1- Fuel Consumption
2- Engineering and Maintenance using Normal distribution.
3- Purchasing and Stores
4- Commercial and Planning
5- Training and Human Resources
6- Monte Carlo Simulation
side, to create an active planning, the company should set-up
1- Fuel Consumption targets based on the historical data, by using forecasting
One of the main challenges in Airline Industry is fuel cost, techniques usually time series analysis (ARMA-Model) also
and consequently fuel consumption, as it represents about trends analysis. While in the commercial side, the company
35% of total cost of airline company, so any saving in this try to achieved these targets by implementing optimization
percentage will reflect a huge saving in the company budget, program that driven by statistical concept as; defining an
and usually most of airline companies act on developing of optimum over booking policy by using Poisson distribution
quality control monitoring program, evaluating the patterned and Spill analysis for controlling number of passengers by
of natural of fuel consumption by using Normal distribution, by using Normal distribution to define the right aircraft to use.
defining the acceptable limits of fuel used and any deviation
beyond that will review thoroughly to define its causes. 5- Training and Human Resources
Evaluation of performance is the main task of this division,
2- Engineering and Maintenance where the future plans are set-up, and the training needs
This is one of the airline divisions that cannot be adapted by are addressed, based on the feedback of questionnaire
cost reduction strategy, as is basically linked to the Reliability that filled by employee, which basically filtered by normal
and Safety factors, and accordingly airline should implement distribution to study most the future needs of the company.
the Reliability and maintenance programs which actually i.e by display the norms and addressing the deviations.
represents most of the statistical tools and techniques, so
in the reliability program for removal and spare parts we 6- Monte Carlo Simulation
use Normal distribution, and for evaluation Time Between In the simulation fields there is a saying “when a formula
Overhaul (T.B.O), we use Exponential distribution, for fails we have to simulate” so simulation is an advance
structure program we use Gamma distribution and for and recent technique in decision making, it is based on
estimating and calculating estimating time of maintenance creating a random number that simulate and have the
activity program by using PERT and CPM we use Beta similar characteristics of the actual set of data either it is
distribution and finally for failures diagnostics and selecting time or event related, and consequently reflected a certain
the right maintenance program we use Wiebull distribution. distribution by high random numbers in a well specified
design program that run at high number of trails to create
3- Purchasing and Stores stable probability for the case study. Usually simulation
This is also one of main divisions in the airline companies, is depends on programs and computers and give a more
as it the main channel for expenditure, so are we purchase accurate result which is more closely for practice.
the right product in right time, or we purchase just
to lose the liquidity, the cash flow of the company on
things are not actually needed or purchased based on Summary:
a wrong decision. So a new approach are developed No doubt that statistical science plays a major role in practice,
for ordering the right quantities and organize the way of also in aviation industry, actually it is the essential part of
purchasing, handling and storing in aviation as Spare Reliability science but in a different terms, it is consider as
Provisioning Policy using Poisson distribution, Material part of mathematics, but the mean issue is it implementations
Forecasting using Gamma distribution, and number of and impacts in the aviation industry, so experience shows
engine in stocks using Poisson distribution also. that airlines utilize the statistical techniques to get the best
results that position the airline in the right track and earn
4- Commercial and Planning a reasonable profits, in a recessions time which is very
No contention that the commercial division is the active heart hard to achieved by a classical methods, this definitely
of the airline, as with out a good and succeed marketing plans, will help in developing of a more effective reports that
the company cannot be achieved their goals and targets, convince the decision maker and the investor of the airlines
these targets are developed within integrated clear strategic companies and explore the situations in healthy way.■
plan that reflect the vision of the company. So in the planning
CAMA Magazine | issue 13 | December, 2011